Mowbray (Tas.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Mowbray reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Mowbray's population is estimated at around 4,146 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 98 people (2.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,048 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 4,136 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 25 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 446 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Mowbray's 2.4% growth since census positions it within 0.2 percentage points of the SA3 area (2.6%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the suburb of Mowbray (Tas.) was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 85.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and to estimate growth by age group in the years post-2032, the Tasmania State Government's Regional/LGA projections are adopted with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Moving forward with demographic trends, projections indicate a decline in overall population for the suburb of Mowbray (Tas.), with the area's population expected to reduce by 36 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 45 to 54 age group, which is projected to expand by 84 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Mowbray according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Mowbray has seen approximately 10 dwelling approvals annually based on AreaSearch analysis using ABS building approval numbers. Around 54 homes were approved between financial years FY-21 to FY-25, with 7 more in FY-26 so far. On average, each new home attracted one new resident yearly over the past five financial years, indicating supply meeting or exceeding demand and supporting population growth while offering greater buyer choice.

The average construction value of new dwellings was $331,000, slightly above the regional average. In FY-26, there have been $1.3 million in commercial approvals, reflecting Mowbray's residential nature. Comparatively, Mowbray shows around 59% of the construction activity per person relative to Rest of Tas., placing it at the 49th percentile nationally, suggesting limited buyer choices and supporting demand for existing homes. This lower-than-average national activity may indicate maturity and potential planning constraints in the area.

New construction in Mowbray has been entirely composed of detached dwellings, preserving its low-density nature and catering to space-seeking buyers. This focus on detached housing (85.0% at Census) suggests robust demand for family homes despite increasing density pressures. Mowbray's population is around 331 people per approval, reflecting a low-density area. With population projections indicating stability or decline, the area may experience reduced housing demand pressures, benefiting potential buyers.

Mowbray has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Twenty-one infrastructure projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Key projects include Northern Suburbs Community Recreation Hub (The Hub), kanamaluka Cultural Centre (Incorporating Conference & Exhibition Space), UTAS Stadium Redevelopment, and Flood Levee Protected Areas Specific Area Plan. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market performance in Mowbray lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Mowbray has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation and an unemployment rate of 6.2%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, 2,042 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.9% higher than Regional Tas.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation is at 60.9%, slightly above Regional Tas.'s 58.7%.

Census data shows that only 3.9% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The dominant employment sectors in Mowbray are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and accommodation & food. Notably, accommodation & food is particularly specialized with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level, while construction is under-represented at 5.6% compared to Regional Tas.'s 8.9%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data.

Over a 12-month period ending December 2025, Mowbray's labour force decreased by 2.0%, with employment declining by 0.8%, leading to a drop in unemployment rate of 1.1 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Tas. experienced employment growth of 1.8% and labour force growth of 1.5%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, issued May-25, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mowbray's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.4% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that Mowbray's median income is $42,608 and average income is $47,116. This is below Regional Tas.'s median income of $49,689 and average income of $59,358. By March 2026, with a Wage Price Index growth of 10.95%, estimated incomes would be approximately $47,274 (median) and $52,275 (average). Census data indicates that Mowbray's household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 9th and 10th percentiles nationally. Income brackets show that 31.6% of locals (1,310 people) predominantly earn between $800 - 1,499, unlike metropolitan trends where 28.5% earn between $1,500 - 2,999. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Mowbray, with only 82.0% of income remaining, ranking at the 9th percentile nationally.

Mowbray is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Mowbray, as assessed at the latest Census conducted on 28 August 2016, consisted of 84.6% houses and 15.4% other dwellings including semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This differed from Regional Tasmania's structure which was 89.9% houses and 10.1% other dwellings. In Mowbray, home ownership stood at 25.6%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (23.3%) or rented (51.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,050, significantly lower than Regional Tasmania's average of $1,863 and also below the national average of $1,863 recorded in 2017-18. The median weekly rent figure in Mowbray was $290, substantially lower than Regional Tasmania's $250 and the national figure of $375 for the same period.

Mowbray features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 58.8% of all households, including 21.7% couples with children, 20.6% couples without children, and 14.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 41.2%, with lone person households at 31.2% and group households comprising 9.8%. The median household size is 2.5 people, larger than the Regional Tasmanian average of 2.3.

Mowbray shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's educational profile is notable regionally with university qualification rates at 25.9% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the Rest of Tas. average of 19.3%. This reflects the community's emphasis on higher education. Bachelor degrees are most common at 14.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 10.2% and graduate diplomas at 1.5%.

Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 29.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 6.5% and certificates at 22.5%. Educational participation is high, with 34.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.6% in primary education, 9.2% in tertiary education, and 6.7% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows seven active stops operating within Mowbray, consisting of bus services. These stops are served by 37 routes, collectively providing 2570 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated moderate, with residents typically located 526 meters from the nearest stop. The area is primarily residential, with most residents commuting outward using cars as the dominant mode at 87%, while 5% walk. Vehicle ownership averages 1.2 per dwelling, below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a relatively low 3.9% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 367 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 367 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Mowbray is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Mowbray faces significant health challenges, as per AreaSearch's assessment on June 18th, 2023. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (~1,900 people), compared to Regional Tas.'s 49.1% and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions, affecting 10.2 and 8.6% of residents respectively. Conversely, 68.1% claim to be completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Regional Tas.'s 62.0%. Working-age residents have a higher prevalence of chronic health conditions than average. The area has 14.3% of residents aged 65 and over (592 people), lower than Regional Tas.'s 24.9%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

Mowbray was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Mowbray's population was found to be more culturally diverse than most local markets, with 33.1% born overseas and 30.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the main religion in Mowbray, comprising 36.2% of its people. Notably, the 'Other' religious category made up 3.2%, higher than Regional Tas's 0.7%.

For ancestry, Australians were the largest group at 27.6%, lower than the regional average of 32.6%. English ancestry was also lower at 26.7% compared to the region's 34.1%. However, 'Other' ancestry was significantly higher at 18.4% versus Regional Tas's 4.6%. Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Australian Aboriginal were overrepresented at 3.7%, Koreans at 0.3%, and Chinese at 3.8%.

Mowbray hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Mowbray has a median age of 32, which is lower than the Regional Tasmania figure of 45 and significantly lower than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to the Regional Tasmanian average, Mowbray has an over-representation of the 25-34 cohort (22.9% locally) and an under-representation of those aged 65-74 (7.3%). This concentration of young adults is notably higher than the national figure of 14.6%. Since 2021, the population share of the 35 to 44 age group has increased from 12.5% to 15.2%, while the 55 to 64 cohort rose from 9.9% to 11.0%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 age group declined from 11.0% to 9.0%, and the 45 to 54 group decreased from 10.0% to 8.8%. Demographic modeling projects significant changes in Mowbray's age profile by 2041. The 45-54 age cohort is expected to expand notably, increasing by 92 people (25%) from 364 to 457. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are projected to account for 58% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 25-34 and 55-64 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.