Mowbray (Tas.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Mowbray reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Mowbray's population is estimated at around 4,179 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 131 people (3.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,048 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 4,142, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 25 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 450 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Mowbray's 3.2% growth since census positions it within 1.0 percentage points of the SA3 area (4.2%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 85.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and to estimate growth by age group in the years post-2032, the Tasmania State Government's Regional/LGA projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year, are adopted with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Moving forward with demographic trends, Over this period, projections indicate a decline in overall population, with the suburb's population expected to reduce by 16 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 45 to 54 age group, which is projected to expand by 73 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Mowbray according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Mowbray has seen approximately 10 dwelling approvals per year based on AreaSearch analysis using ABS building approval numbers. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 54 homes were approved, with another 7 approved in FY-26 so far. This results in an average of about 0.9 new residents arriving annually for each new home over the past five financial years.

The supply of dwellings has been meeting or exceeding demand, offering greater buyer choice and supporting potential population growth. The average construction value of these new dwellings is around $331,000, slightly above the regional average, suggesting a focus on quality developments. This year alone, there have been approximately $1.3 million in commercial approvals, indicating the area's residential nature. Comparatively, Mowbray shows about 59% of the construction activity per person relative to the Rest of Tas., and it falls within the 49th percentile nationally among areas assessed.

This suggests more limited choices for buyers and supports demand for existing homes. The low level of construction activity may reflect the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. All new constructions in Mowbray have been detached dwellings, preserving its low-density nature. This emphasis on detached housing attracts space-seeking buyers despite increasing density pressures. With around 331 people per approval, Mowbray maintains a low-density status. Population projections indicating stability or decline suggest reduced housing demand pressures, benefiting potential buyers in the area.

Mowbray has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 47thth percentile nationally

Twenty-one projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area's performance. Key projects include Northern Suburbs Community Recreation Hub (The Hub), kanamaluka Cultural Centre (Incorporating Conference & Exhibition Space), Flood Levee Protected Areas Specific Area Plan, and UTAS Stadium Redevelopment.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market performance in Mowbray lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Mowbray's skilled workforce has diverse sector representation with an unemployment rate of 6.3%, as per AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation in September 2025. The town's unemployment rate is 2.5% higher than Rest of Tas.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Mowbray is similar to Rest of Tas., at 58.6%.

Census responses indicate that only 3.9% of residents work from home, but Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and accommodation & food. Mowbray specializes in accommodation & food, with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level, while construction is under-represented at 5.6% compared to Rest of Tas.'s 8.9%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census working population to local population count.

In the 12-month period ending in September 2025, Mowbray's labour force decreased by 2.6%, employment declined by 1.6%, and unemployment rate fell by 0.9 percentage points, according to AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data. In contrast, Rest of Tas. experienced employment growth of 0.7% and labour force growth of 0.5%, with a 0.2 percentage point drop in unemployment rate. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Mowbray's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not consider localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that Mowbray has an income below the national average. The median income is $42,608 and the average is $47,116. This contrasts with Rest of Tas., where the median income is $49,689 and the average is $59,358. Based on a 9.6% growth in wages since financial year 2023, current estimates for Mowbray would be approximately $46,698 (median) and $51,639 (average) as of September 2025. Census data indicates that incomes in Mowbray fall between the 9th and 10th percentiles nationally. The predominant income bracket spans 31.6% of locals (1,320 people), with incomes between $800 - 1,499. This is unlike metropolitan trends where 28.5% fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Mowbray, with only 82.0% of income remaining, ranking at the 9th percentile nationally.

Mowbray is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

As of the latest Census, Mowbray had 84.6% houses and 15.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro Tas.'s 89.9% houses and 10.1% other dwellings. In Mowbray, home ownership stood at 25.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 23.3% and rented ones at 51.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,050, lower than Non-Metro Tas.'s average of $1,274, while the median weekly rent figure was $290, compared to Non-Metro Tas.'s $250. Nationally, Mowbray's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,050 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Mowbray features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 58.8% of all households, including 21.7% couples with children, 20.6% couples without children, and 14.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 41.2%, with lone person households at 31.2% and group households comprising 9.8%. The median household size is 2.5 people, larger than the Rest of Tas. average of 2.3.

Mowbray shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates of 25.9% among residents aged 15 and above, surpassing the Rest of Tas. average of 19.3%. This reflects the community's emphasis on higher education. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 14.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%).

Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 29.0% of residents aged 15 and above holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (6.5%) and certificates (22.5%). Educational participation is notably high, with 34.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.6% in primary education, 9.2% in tertiary education, and 6.7% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Mowbray has seven active public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are covered by 37 different routes, offering a total of 2570 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is moderate, with residents living an average of 526 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards daily. In 2021, car use was dominant at 87%, while walking accounted for 5%. Vehicle ownership averaged 1.2 per dwelling, below the regional norm.

Only 3.9% of residents worked from home in 2021, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averaged 367 trips daily, amounting to approximately 367 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Mowbray is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Mowbray faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notable across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (around 1,916 people), compared to 49.1% in Rest of Tas.

and the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions are mental health issues affecting 10.2% of residents and arthritis impacting 8.6%, with 68.1% reporting no medical ailments, compared to 62.0% in Rest of Tas.. Working-age residents have a higher prevalence of chronic health conditions than average. The area has 13.8% of residents aged 65 and over (576 people), lower than the 24.9% in Rest of Tas.. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings generally in line with the overall population.

Mowbray was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Mowbray's population showed high diversity with 33.1% born overseas and 30.2% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, making up 36.2%. Notably, 'Other' religions comprised 3.2%, compared to Rest of Tas.'s 0.7%.

Regarding ancestry, Australian heritage made up 27.6%, lower than the regional average of 32.6%. English heritage constituted 26.7%, also lower than the regional average of 34.1%. 'Other' ancestry was substantially higher at 18.4%, compared to the region's 4.6%. Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Australian Aboriginal were overrepresented at 3.7% (regional average 4.1%), Koreans at 0.3% (0.1%), and Chinese at 3.8% (0.8%).

Mowbray hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Mowbray has a median age of 32, which is lower than the Rest of Tas. figure of 45 years and significantly lower than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to the Rest of Tas. average, Mowbray has an over-representation of the 25-34 cohort (23.7%) and under-representation of the 65-74 year-olds (7.2%). This concentration of the 25-34 age group is well above the national figure of 14.4%. Between 2021 and present, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 12.5% to 14.8%, while the 55 to 64 cohort increased from 9.9% to 11.6%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort declined from 11.0% to 8.2% and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 10.0% to 8.4%. Demographic modeling suggests that by 2041, Mowbray's age profile will evolve significantly. The 45 to 54 age cohort is projected to expand by 91 people (26%), growing from 351 to 443. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 56% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 25 to 34 and 55 to 64 cohorts are anticipated to experience population declines.