Waverley - St Leonards

Waverley - St Leonards has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

According to the analysis conducted by AreaSearch, the population of Waverley - St Leonards is approximately 4,134 as of May 2026. This indicates a growth of 202 people (5.1%) relative to the 3,932 individuals recorded in the 2021 Census. The calculation is based on the June 2025 ABS estimated resident population of 4,107, supplemented by 132 validated new addresses identified since the Census. This population level yields a density of 75 persons per square kilometer, indicating a spacious residential environment and room for potential expansion. The 5.1% growth rate since the 2021 Census outpaced the broader SA3 region (2.6%) as well as the state, positioning the area as a regional growth leader. The expansion of the local population was heavily supported by overseas migration, which accounted for roughly 94.0% of the total population growth over recent periods.

AreaSearch utilizes the population projections published by the ABS and Geoscience Australia in 2024, which use 2022 as their baseline year. For any SA2 regions omitted from these data sets, and to project age cohort changes after the year 2032, regional and LGA projections from the Tasmanian State Government released in 2022 (with a 2021 baseline) are integrated, applying a weighted aggregation approach from the LGA scale down to the SA2 level. Looking at future demographic trends, growth is projected to align with the bottom quartile of regional areas nationwide, with the population expected to rise by 191 persons by 2041 according to the most recent annual ERP data, representing a total increase of 4.0% over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Waverley - St Leonards when compared nationally

In Waverley - St Leonards, residential dwelling approvals have run at a yearly average of approximately 23, with a total of 117 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (from FY-21 to FY-25) and 46 during FY-26 so far. The local housing market appears balanced and stable, with an average of 1.6 people relocating to the area for every new dwelling constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), a ratio that has further declined to 0.1 people per dwelling over the last 2 financial years, reflecting highly aligned supply conditions. Newly built properties show an average construction cost of $340,000—slightly higher than regional benchmarks—which points to a focus on quality builds. Additionally, commercial building approvals have reached $3.7 million this financial year, highlighting that the locality remains predominantly residential in character.

Compared to Rest of Tas., building activity in Waverley - St Leonards is moderately elevated, tracking 32.0% above the regional average per capita over the 5 year period, which maintains choice for buyers while supporting existing property values. The composition of new residential structures consists of 95.0% standalone houses and 5.0% medium to high-density dwellings, which reinforces the low-density landscape and appeals to buyers seeking space. Representing approximately 157 people per residential approval, the development pattern in Waverley - St Leonards reflects a typical low-density area.

Projecting forward, the population of Waverley - St Leonards is expected to rise by 164 residents by 2041, based on the latest quarterly figures from AreaSearch. Considering current construction trends, the supply of new housing is well-positioned to satisfy demand, creating favorable buyer conditions and potentially supporting population growth beyond the current baseline projections.

Waverley - St Leonards has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 5thth percentile nationally

Local infrastructure projects, planning choices, and major developments have a significant impact on local performance. AreaSearch has identified a total of 25 projects expected to influence the area. Key examples include Cedar Grove Estate, Residential dwelling and vegetation removal - 38 Casuarina Dr, Summerhill, Dwelling and Shed - 18 Casuarina Dr, Summerhill 7250, and Peacehaven Aged Care Redevelopment, with the primary projects of interest outlined in the list below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Waverley - St Leonards shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

The workforce of Waverley - St Leonards is distributed across both white-collar and blue-collar occupations, with a notable presence in key service industries and an unemployment rate of 4.4%. As of March 2026, 2,020 local residents are employed, representing an unemployment rate 0.4% higher than the Regional Tas. benchmark of 3.9%, while participation in the labour force matches typical levels (63.5% versus 58.8% in Regional Tas.). According to Census data, a modest 4.5% of workers performed their duties from home, though this figure may have been influenced by pandemic containment measures.

Resident employment is primarily centered in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction shows a particularly high concentration, with the employment share in this sector reaching 1.5 times the regional average. Conversely, agricultural, forestry & fishing activities are underrepresented at 2.8% of the local workforce, compared to the regional average of 8.4%. The ratio of local working positions to resident workers indicates that the area offers relatively few jobs within its immediate borders.

According to AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the labour force shrank by 1.6% and employment dropped by 1.4% during the year to March 2026, which led to the unemployment rate declining by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Tas. saw employment rise by 1.8%, the labour force grow by 1.7%, and unemployment decrease slightly. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can provide additional perspective on potential future demand within Waverley - St Leonards. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Waverley - St Leonards's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.5% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

According to the most recent postcode ATO data released for the financial year 2023, Waverley - St Leonards SA2 taxpayers recorded a median income of $49,535 and an average income of $61,693. These statistics sit below the national benchmarks, and compare to a median of $49,689 and average of $59,358 in Regional Tas. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 10.95% since the financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 would stand at approximately $54,959 for the median and $68,448 for the average. In the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in the area fell within the 20th to 22nd percentiles nationwide. The largest earnings group consists of 31.3% of local taxpayers (1,293 people) falling into the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, resembling the wider metropolitan area where 28.5% of taxpayers occupy the same range. Net of housing costs, residents retain 86.1% of their income, placing the area in the 23rd percentile nationally.

Waverley - St Leonards is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

According to the latest Census, the composition of residential dwellings in Waverley - St Leonards consisted of 89.9% houses and 10.0% other dwelling types (including townhouses, flats, and alternative options), compared to 89.9% houses and 10.1% other dwellings in Regional Tas. The home ownership rate in Waverley - St Leonards was lower than the regional Tasmanian average, standing at 30.3%, while the remaining properties were either held with a mortgage (40.6%) or occupied by tenants (29.1%). The median monthly payment for mortgage holders was $1,161, which is below the Regional Tas. average of $1,274. In contrast, the median weekly rent was recorded at $250, matching the Regional Tas. median of $250. On a national level, housing costs in Waverley - St Leonards are significantly lower than the Australian average mortgage payment of $1,863 and the national median rent of $375.

Waverley - St Leonards has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Families make up the majority of households at 70.8%, consisting of couples with children (26.1%), couples without children (25.4%), and single-parent households (18.0%). Non-family households account for the remaining 29.2% of the total, with lone person households representing 26.3% and group housing making up 2.5%. The median household size stands at 2.4 people, which is slightly higher than the Regional Tas. average of 2.3.

Waverley - St Leonards faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The local population presents lower rates of higher education, with university qualification rates (13.1%) tracking well below the national average of 30.4%. This highlights a clear opportunity for targeted educational programs. Among university graduates, bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.4%, followed by postgraduate degrees (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational and technical training is prominent, with 39.3% of residents aged 15+ holding qualifications in these areas, consisting of advanced diplomas (8.3%) and certificates (31.0%).

A significant proportion of the population is actively engaged in studies, with 28.4% of residents currently enrolled in an educational program. This student group comprises 11.8% in primary schooling, 8.3% in secondary schooling, and 3.0% enrolled in tertiary education programs.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

An analysis of public transport infrastructure shows 35 active stops operating within Waverley - St Leonards, serviced by bus routes. A total of 143 distinct routes utilize these stops, generating 11,272 passenger journeys weekly. Transport access is rated as good, with residents living an average of 242 meters from their nearest stop. Reflecting the suburban nature of the area, most residents commute to jobs elsewhere, with private cars remaining the primary travel mode at 96%. Households own an average of 1.6 vehicles. A small proportion of residents worked from home (4.5% in the 2021 Census, which may have been influenced by COVID-19 rules).

Across all routes, service frequency averages 1,610 trips daily, which represents approximately 322 weekly trips for each transport stop.

Health performance in Waverley - St Leonards is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Significant health concerns exist within Waverley - St Leonards, as indicated by AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality data and the prevalence of chronic health conditions, which impact both younger and older demographics. Additionally, the proportion of residents with private health insurance is relatively low, standing at approximately 50% of the population (~2,058 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health conditions and asthma are the most prevalent health issues locally, affecting 11.7% and 10.2% of residents respectively. Conversely, 62.3% of the population reported no chronic medical conditions, closely matching the 62.0% recorded across Regional Tas. The working-age cohort faces notable challenges with elevated rates of long-term health issues. Residents aged 65 and over make up 15.4% of the population (635 people), which is lower than the Regional Tas. figure of 24.9%. Seniors in the area experience challenging health outcomes, ranking higher relative to national averages than the general population.

The latest Census data sees Waverley - St Leonards placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Waverley - St Leonards exhibits lower levels of cultural diversity compared to national averages, with citizens making up 92.5% of the population, 92.7% of residents born in Australia, and 96.7% speaking only English in a home setting. Christianity is the primary religion, followed by 41.6% of the population. Hinduism represents the most visible statistical overrepresentation, accounting for 0.7% of the population, compared to 1.1% across Regional Tas.

Looking at ancestral backgrounds, the three largest self-identified cohorts in Waverley - St Leonards are Australian (35.8%), English (35.0%), and Scottish (7.1%). There are also notable differences in other backgrounds, with Dutch ancestry overrepresented at 1.9% of the population (compared to 1.7% regionally), Australian Aboriginal people at 3.6% (compared to 4.1%), and Macedonian ancestry at 0.1% (compared to 0.0%).

Waverley - St Leonards's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age of 37 years in Waverley - St Leonards is considerably lower than the Regional Tas. average of 45, and aligns closely with the national median of 38 years. Compared to Regional Tas., Waverley - St Leonards has a higher share of residents aged 35 - 44 (16.0%) but a lower share of those aged 65 - 74 (9.0%). Since the 2021 Census, the 35 to 44 age cohort has increased its share of the population from 14.1% to 16.0%, while the 5 to 14 age group has decreased from 14.2% to 13.4%. Looking forward to 2041, demographic forecasts indicate notable changes in the age profile. The 45 to 54 cohort is projected to lead growth with a 36% increase (163 people), rising from 455 to 619. In contrast, the 55 to 64 and 35 to 44 cohorts are projected to contract.