Summerhill - Prospect
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Summerhill - Prospect reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Summerhill-Prospect's population is around 5014 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 56 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4958 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 4992 in June 2024 and an additional 23 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 569 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person. Summerhill-Prospect's 1.1% growth since census positions it within 2.8 percentage points of the SA3 area (3.9%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth that contributed approximately 57.7% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and to estimate growth by age group in the years post-2032, Tasmania State Government's Regional/LGA projections are adopted with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Moving forward with demographic trends, projections indicate a decline in overall population over this period, with the area's population expected to shrink by 126 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 85 and over age group, which is projected to grow by 79 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Summerhill - Prospect according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Summerhill-Prospect averaged around 15 new dwelling approvals per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, 79 homes were approved, with an additional 5 approved so far in FY26. On average, 1.2 people moved to the area annually for each dwelling built over these five years. However, this ratio has moderated to -3.8 people per dwelling over the past two financial years.

The average value of new homes being built is $229,000. This year, $2.0 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Compared nationally, Summerhill-Prospect shows approximately 75% of construction activity per person and ranks at the 38th percentile of assessed areas, suggesting limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing properties. This level is below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints.

New building activity consists of 90.0% detached houses and 10.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. With an estimated 517 people in the area per dwelling approval, it maintains a quiet, low activity development environment. Population projections indicate stability or decline, which should reduce housing demand pressures, benefiting potential buyers.

Summerhill - Prospect has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 11thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 18 projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include Prospect Vale Park Facilities Upgrade, Greater Launceston Water Improvements, McDonald's Prospect Vale Drive-Thru Restaurant, and Northern Heart Centre. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment landscape in Summerhill - Prospect presents a mixed picture: unemployment remains low at 3.1%, yet recent job losses have affected its comparative national standing

Summerhill - Prospect has a skilled workforce with an unemployment rate of 3.1% as of June 2025. It has 2,644 residents in work, which is 0.9% lower than the Rest of Tas.'s rate of 3.9%.

The workforce participation rate is 62.7%, compared to Rest of Tas.'s 55.7%. The leading employment industries are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Health care & social assistance employs 1.3 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing employs only 1.3% of local workers, below Rest of Tas.'s 8.4%. Over the year to June 2025, labour force levels decreased by 1.5%, and employment declined by 1.7%, resulting in a rise in unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points.

By comparison, Rest of Tas. recorded an employment decline of 0.5% and a labour force decline of 0.6%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, published in May 2025, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Summerhill - Prospect's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.7% over five years and 14.1% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2022, Summerhill - Prospect had a median income among taxpayers of $51,896 with the average level standing at $65,267. This is approximately average nationally and compares to levels of $47,358 and $57,384 across Rest of Tas. respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 13.83% since financial year ended June 2022, current estimates would be approximately $59,073 (median) and $74,293 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows personal income ranks at the 38th percentile ($747 weekly), while household income sits at the 20th percentile. Income brackets indicate the largest segment comprises 31.6% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (1,584 residents). Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 84.8% of income remaining, ranking at the 21st percentile.

Summerhill - Prospect is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Summerhill-Prospect's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 77.8% houses and 22.2% other dwellings (including semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro Tas. had 82.1% houses and 17.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Summerhill-Prospect was at 33.4%, with the rest being mortgaged (37.8%) or rented (28.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, aligning with Non-Metro Tas.'s average. Weekly rent was $290, compared to Non-Metro Tas.'s $280. Nationally, Summerhill-Prospect's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,300 versus Australia's $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Summerhill - Prospect features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 65.2% of all households, including 24.6% couples with children, 26.3% couples without children, and 13.6% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 34.8%, with lone person households at 32.1% and group households making up 2.7%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of Tas.

Summerhill - Prospect faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 16.6%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 38.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 8.8% and certificates at 30.1%.

Educational participation is high, with 25.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.0% in primary, 7.1% in secondary, and 3.2% in tertiary education. Summerhill - Prospect has 4 schools with a combined enrollment of 2,627 students, operating under typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 979) with balanced educational opportunities. The area functions as an education hub with 52.5 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 18.4, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis shows 27 active public transport stops in Summerhill-Prospect area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totalling 118 individual routes. They facilitate 10,609 weekly passenger trips combined.

Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents located an average of 214 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 1,515 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 392 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Summerhill - Prospect is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Summerhill-Prospect faces significant health challenges, as indicated by its health data.

Common health conditions are prevalent across both younger and older age groups. The area has a private health cover rate of approximately 52% (~2627 people), which is higher than the average SA2 area's rate. Arthritis and mental health issues are the most common medical conditions, affecting 11.0% and 10.1% of residents respectively. However, 62.5% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 63.9% in the rest of Tasmania. The area has a high proportion of seniors, with 20.9% (1047 people) aged 65 and over. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly aligned with the general population's health profile.

Summerhill - Prospect is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Summerhill-Prospect was found to have a below average level of cultural diversity, with 89.4% of its population born in Australia, 91.1% being citizens, and 93.6% speaking English only at home. The dominant religion in Summerhill-Prospect is Christianity, comprising 46.4% of the population. However, Hinduism was found to be overrepresented, making up 1.2% of the population compared to 2.5% across Rest of Tas.

In terms of ancestry, the top three represented groups are English at 35.3%, Australian at 32.7%, and Irish at 7.1%. Notably, Dutch is slightly overrepresented at 2.2% compared to 2.0% regionally, while Australian Aboriginal and Maori are relatively well-represented at 2.7% and 0.4% respectively, compared to regional percentages of 2.7% and 0.2%.

Summerhill - Prospect's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Summerhill-Prospect's median age is 40 years, which is significantly below the Rest of Tasmania average of 45 but somewhat older than Australia's median age of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 15-24 are particularly prominent at 12.6%, while the 65-74 group is comparatively smaller at 10.5% than in the Rest of Tasmania. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 6.4% to 7.8% of the population. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 14.4% to 12.8%. Population forecasts for Summerhill-Prospect indicate substantial demographic changes by 2041. The 85+ cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 60%, adding 76 residents to reach a total of 205. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive 61% of population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. However, population declines are projected for the 55-64 and 15-24 age cohorts.