Prospect Vale - Blackstone
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Prospect Vale - Blackstone reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Prospect Vale - Blackstone's population was approximately 7,034 as of August 2025. This figure reflects an increase of 257 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,777. The change is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 6,924 in June 2024 and an additional 179 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 396 persons per square kilometer. Prospect Vale - Blackstone's growth rate of 3.8% since the 2021 census exceeded its SA3 area's growth rate of 3.6%. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, Tasmania State Government's Regional/LGA projections are adopted with adjustments made using weighted aggregation methods. Projections indicate an overall population decline by 252 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts like the 75 to 84 age group are projected to increase by 230 people during this period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Prospect Vale - Blackstone recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Prospect Vale - Blackstone has seen approximately 41 dwellings approved annually. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reports that between financial years 2021 and 2025, around 206 homes received approval, with another 16 approved in FY-2026 so far. On average, about 0.9 people have moved to the area each year for every dwelling built over these five years. This indicates that supply is meeting or exceeding demand, offering more buyer choices and supporting potential population growth above projections.

The average construction cost of new homes is $524,000, which is moderately higher than regional levels, suggesting a focus on quality construction. In FY-2026, around $775,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating minimal commercial development activity compared to residential. Compared to the rest of Tasmania, Prospect Vale - Blackstone has seen elevated construction activity, with 36.0% more dwellings approved per person over the past five years. This has maintained good buyer choice and supported existing property values, though recent development activity has moderated.

New developments consist of 60.0% detached dwellings and 40.0% townhouses or apartments, showing an increasing trend towards attached housing types to cater to diverse price ranges. This shift is notable compared to the area's current housing composition, which is predominantly houses (83.0%). The location has approximately 225 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low-density market. With stable or declining population projections, Prospect Vale - Blackstone is expected to experience reduced housing demand pressures, benefiting potential buyers.

Prospect Vale - Blackstone has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 9thth percentile nationally

Fourteen projects identified by AreaSearch are likely to impact the local area, significantly influencing its performance. Key projects include Country Club Estate, McDonald's Prospect Vale Drive-Thru Restaurant, Prospect Vale - Blackstone Heights Structure Plan, and Prospect Vale Park Facilities Upgrade. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The employment environment in Prospect Vale - Blackstone shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Prospect Vale - Blackstone has an unemployment rate of 2.2% as of June 2025, with 3,591 residents employed. The area's unemployment rate is 1.8 percentage points lower than the Rest of Tas.'s rate of 3.9%, and its workforce participation rate is 60.2%, compared to Rest of Tas.'s 55.7%.

Major industries for residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training, with retail trade being particularly strong at 1.3 times the regional level. Agriculture, forestry & fishing employs only 1.6% of local workers, below Rest of Tas.'s 8.4%. Between June 2024 and June 2025, the labour force decreased by 1.5%, employment decreased by 1.6%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Tas.

saw employment decline by 0.5% and labour force decline by 0.6%, with marginal fall in unemployment. State-wide, Tasmania's employment grew by 0.77% year-on-year to Sep-25, adding 1,170 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.5%, and employment growth was 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Prospect Vale - Blackstone's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Prospect Vale - Blackstone's median taxpayer income was $51,271 and average income was $64,481 in the financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is comparable to national averages, whereas Rest of Tas.'s median income was $47,358 with an average income of $57,384. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 11.94% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes for March 2025 would be approximately $57,393 (median) and $72,180 (average). The 2021 Census data ranks household, family, and personal incomes in Prospect Vale - Blackstone between the 26th and 36th percentiles. The predominant income cohort spans 29.2% of locals (2,053 people) with incomes between $1,500 and $2,999. After housing costs, 86.1% of income remains, ranking at the 30th percentile nationally.

Prospect Vale - Blackstone is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Prospect Vale - Blackstone, as per the latest Census evaluation, 82.8% of dwellings were houses while 17.2% comprised semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This is similar to Non-Metro Tas., which had 82.1% houses and 17.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Prospect Vale - Blackstone stood at 41.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 34.8% and rented ones at 23.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,500, higher than Non-Metro Tas.'s average of $1,300. The median weekly rent in the area was $300, slightly above Non-Metro Tas.'s figure of $280. Nationally, Prospect Vale - Blackstone's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,500 compared to Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially lower at $300 versus the national figure of $375.

Prospect Vale - Blackstone features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 68.0% of all households, including 26.5% couples with children, 30.4% couples without children, and 10.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 32.0%, with lone person households at 29.9% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which matches the average in the Rest of Tas.

Prospect Vale - Blackstone faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 18.1%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common (12.7%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (9.3%) and certificates (27.1%). A total of 23.6% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, with 9.3% in primary, 6.8% in secondary, and 3.5% in tertiary education.

Educational facilities seem to be located outside the immediate catchment area, requiring students to access schools in neighboring regions.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Prospect Vale - Blackstone has 56 active public transport stops. All these stops are served by buses via 148 different routes. Together, they facilitate 12,857 weekly passenger trips.

The area's transport accessibility is good, with residents generally located about 208 meters from the nearest stop. On average, there are 1,836 bus trips per day across all routes, which amounts to around 229 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Prospect Vale - Blackstone is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Prospect Vale - Blackstone faces significant health challenges, as indicated by its health data.

The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts. The area has a private health cover rate of approximately 52% of its total population (~3,650 people), which exceeds the average SA2 area rate. Arthritis and mental health issues are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 12.0 and 8.8% of residents respectively. Conversely, 61.7% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.9% across Rest of Tas.. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 26.4% (1,856 people), compared to the Rest of Tas.'s 19.9%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Prospect Vale - Blackstone is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Prospect Vale-Blackstone showed low cultural diversity, with 87.7% born in Australia, 92.7% being citizens, and 93.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity dominated at 53.2%, compared to 42.3% regionally. Top ancestral groups were English (34.8%), Australian (34.0%), and Irish (7.4%).

Notable differences included Dutch (1.6%, vs regional 2.0%), Sri Lankan (0.2%, vs 0.1%), and Australian Aboriginal (2.1%, vs 2.7%).

Prospect Vale - Blackstone hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Prospect Vale - Blackstone's median age was 46 years in the census data, comparable to Rest of Tas.'s 45 but significantly higher than Australia's median age of 38. The age profile showed that the 75-84 year-olds were particularly prominent at 10.0%, while the 25-34 group was smaller at 9.7% compared to Rest of Tas.. Post-census data from 2021 indicated that the 75 to 84 age group had grown from 8.8% to 10.0% of the population, while the 25 to 34 cohort had declined from 10.9% to 9.7%, and the 45 to 54 group had dropped from 13.5% to 12.4%. Demographic modeling suggests that Prospect Vale - Blackstone's age profile will change significantly by 2041, with the 75 to 84 age cohort projected to grow steadily, adding 206 people (29%) from 703 to 910. The growth of senior residents aged 65 and above will drive 64% of population growth, reflecting demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, both the 65 to 74 and the 0 to 4 age groups are expected to decrease in number.