Waverley (Tas.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Waverley reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of the suburb of Waverley, Tasmania is estimated to be around 1,658 as of February 2026. This figure reflects an increase of 75 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,583. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 1,587 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, along with an additional 45 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 152 persons per square kilometer, indicating significant space per person and potential room for further development. Waverley's growth rate of 4.7% since the 2021 census exceeded that of its SA3 area at 4.2%, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 56.00000000000001% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and interstate migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, Tasmania State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are adopted after adjustments employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Looking ahead, lower quartile growth of Australia's non-metropolitan areas is anticipated, with the area expected to expand by 88 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 5.3% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Waverley when compared nationally

Waverley has seen around 5 dwellings receiving development approval annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 25 homes were approved, with another 6 in FY-26 so far. This results in an average of about 4.4 new residents per year for every home built over the past five financial years.

Demand is outpacing supply significantly, which typically puts upward pressure on prices and increases competition among buyers. New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $458,000, indicating developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In FY-26, there have been $224,000 in commercial approvals, suggesting minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Rest of Tas., Waverley records about 69% of building activity per person and ranks among the 75th percentile nationally, though construction activity has intensified recently.

This activity is lower than national averages, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. Recent building activity consists entirely of detached houses, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. Notably, developers are constructing more detached housing than the existing pattern implies (84.0% at Census), reflecting persistent strong demand for family homes amid densification trends. The location has approximately 165 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Future projections show Waverley adding 88 residents by 2041 based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Waverley has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 24thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified two projects likely affecting this region. Notable projects include Ravenswood Subdivision, 38A Faulkner Road Rural Living Rezoning and Subdivision, University of Tasmania Launceston campus Inveresk, and Launceston City Heart Project. The following details those most relevant.

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Employment conditions in Waverley face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Waverley's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs with varied sector representation. The unemployment rate as of September 2025 was 9.7%. There are 706 employed residents, which is 5.9% higher than Rest of Tas.'s rate of 3.8%, indicating room for improvement.

Workforce participation is similar to Rest of Tas.'s 58.6%. Only 2.2% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Key employment industries are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Retail trade is particularly strong with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at 3.3% compared to 8.4% regionally. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as shown by the Census working population vs resident population count. Between September 2024 and September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 3.1%, while employment declined by 3.8%, increasing unemployment by 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Tas. saw employment grow by 0.7% with a labour force growth of 0.5% and a decrease in unemployment by 0.2 percentage points. National employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Waverley's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that Waverley's median income is $39,529 and average income is $49,715. This is lower than the national averages of $49,689 (median) and $59,358 (average) for Rest of Tas. Based on a 9.6% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $43,324 (median) and $54,488 (average). According to the 2021 Census, Waverley's household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 3rd and 8th percentiles nationally. The income bracket of $800 - $1,499 dominates with 33.4% of residents, unlike metropolitan trends where 28.5% fall within $1,500 - $2,999. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Waverley, with only 84.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 5th percentile.

Waverley is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Waverley's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 84.0% houses and 16.0% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro Tas. had 89.9% houses and 10.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Waverley stood at 27.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.0% and rented ones at 39.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $867, lower than Non-Metro Tas.'s average of $1,274. The median weekly rent in Waverley was $237, compared to Non-Metro Tas.'s $250. Nationally, Waverley's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $867 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Waverley features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households comprise 64.2 percent of all households, including 20.2 percent couples with children, 20.4 percent couples without children, and 21.2 percent single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 35.8 percent, with lone person households at 31.5 percent and group households comprising 3.3 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which matches the average for the Rest of Tas.

Waverley faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 7.2%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 4.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.9%) and graduate diplomas (0.5%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 36.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (5.3%) and certificates (31.6%). Educational participation is high, with 28.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education - 11.8% in primary, 7.7% in secondary, and 2.9% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.8% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 2.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Waverley has 12 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are serviced by 47 different routes that collectively provide 3,501 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 168 meters from the nearest transport stop. Most commutes in this primarily residential area are outward-bound, and cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 94%. On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling, which is below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, only 2.2% of residents work from home, a figure that may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 500 trips per day, equating to approximately 291 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Waverley is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Waverley faces significant health challenges as assessed by AreaSearch. Mortality rates and prevalence of chronic conditions impact both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 47% (around 777 people), compared to 49.1% in Rest of Tas., and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues affect 13.2% of residents, while asthma impacts 11.5%. Conversely, 58.0% report no medical ailments, compared to 62.0% in Rest of Tas. Working-age population health is notably challenged due to high chronic condition rates. The area has 14.0% (232 people) aged 65 and over, lower than Rest of Tas.'s 24.9%. Senior health outcomes present challenges, with national rankings higher than the general population.

The latest Census data sees Waverley placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Waverley's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 91.7% of its population being citizens, 94.9% born in Australia, and 98.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, making up 33.6% of people in Waverley. The most apparent overrepresentation was in Other, comprising 0.6% compared to 0.7% across Rest of Tas..

For ancestry, the top three represented groups were Australian (38.5%), English (35.4%), and Irish (5.8%). Notably, Dutch were overrepresented at 2.0%, Australian Aboriginal at 5.1%, and Russian at 0.4%.

Waverley's population is younger than the national pattern

The median age in Waverley is 35 years, which is lower than the Rest of Tasmania's average of 45 years and also below the national average of 38 years. The age profile indicates that those aged 25-34 years are particularly prominent, making up 16.7% of the population, while those aged 65-74 years form a comparatively smaller group at 8.1%. Between 2021 and the present, the proportion of the population aged 35-44 has increased from 13.2% to 15.1%, whilst the 65-74 age cohort has decreased from 8.9% to 8.1%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections suggest significant shifts in Waverley's age structure. The 45-54 age group is projected to increase by 66 people, rising from 177 to 244. Conversely, both the 55-64 and 35-44 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.