Fernvale (Qld)

Fernvale lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, Fernvale's population is estimated at around 4,059 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 430 people (11.8%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,629 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 4,020 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 96 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 146 persons per square kilometer. Fernvale's growth exceeded the national average (9.7%) since the 2021 census, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 57.99999999999999% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023 based on 2021 data are adopted. These state projections do not provide age category splits; hence proportional growth weightings are applied in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 based on 2022 data for each age cohort. Anticipating future population dynamics, an above median population growth is projected for Fernvale (Qld) statistical area (Lv2), expected to grow by 561 persons to 2041 reflecting a gain of 9.0% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Fernvale according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Fernvale has seen approximately 31 residential properties approved annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. From FY-21 to FY-25, around 157 homes were granted approval with an additional 12 approved in FY-26. On average, 0.9 new residents per year have been arriving for each new home over the past five financial years, indicating supply meeting or exceeding demand.

The average construction cost value of these properties is $360,000. This year, Fernvale has recorded $3.7 million in commercial development approvals. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Fernvale's development levels per person are similar, maintaining market equilibrium with surrounding areas.

All recent developments have consisted of standalone homes, preserving the area's low-density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. Currently, there are around 296 people per approval in Fernvale. By 2041, Fernvale is projected to grow by 365 residents according to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing favourable conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Fernvale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified zero projects likely to affect this area. Notable initiatives include Ipswich City Plan 2025, Ipswich Smart City Program, Ipswich Better Bus Network, and Moreton Bay Regional Council Planning Scheme, with the following list highlighting those most relevant.

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Employment conditions in Fernvale demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Fernvale has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue collar jobs, with essential services sectors well-represented. The unemployment rate was 2.9% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 4.8%.

As of September 2025, 1,904 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.1%, slightly below Greater Brisbane's rate of 4.0%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Brisbane at 64.5%. The leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, public administration & safety, and construction. Notably, public administration & safety has a high concentration with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services have limited presence, with only 4.0% of employment compared to the regional average of 8.9%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the Census working population count versus resident population. In the past year, employment increased by 4.8%, and labour force grew by 3.9%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Brisbane experienced employment growth of 3.8% and a 0.5 percentage point drop in unemployment rate. State-level data to 25-Nov shows Queensland's employment contracted by 0.01% (losing 1,210 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.2%, closely aligned with the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Fernvale's employment mix suggests local employment should grow by 6.0% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though this is an illustrative extrapolation not accounting for localized population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Fernvale's median income among taxpayers was $62,335. The average income was $70,187. This is slightly above the national average. Comparing with Greater Brisbane's median of $58,236 and average of $72,799. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $68,512 for the median income and $77,143 for the average as of September 2025. Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Fernvale rank modestly, between the 44th and 51st percentiles. Income distribution reveals that 41.9% (1,700 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 earnings band, mirroring the regional trend where 33.3% occupy this bracket. High housing costs consume 15.5% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 53rd percentile.

Fernvale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Fernvale's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 98.3% houses and 1.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Brisbane metro's 96.6% houses and 3.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Fernvale stood at 25.3%, with the rest being mortgaged (51.1%) or rented (23.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,630, higher than Brisbane metro's average of $1,517. Median weekly rent in Fernvale was $350, compared to Brisbane metro's $300. Nationally, Fernvale's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,630 vs Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were also lower at $350 compared to the national figure of $375.

Fernvale features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 82.3% of all households, including 39.8% couples with children, 27.1% couples without children, and 14.2% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 17.7%, with lone person households at 16.1% and group households at 2.1%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Fernvale fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 13.2%, significantly lower than Greater Brisbane's average of 30.5%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.9%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.6%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.7%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 46.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (11.2%) and certificates (35.4%). Educational participation is high, with 32.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 14.8% in primary education, 9.3% in secondary education, and 3.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Fernvale has four operational public transport stops, all of which serve buses. These stops are covered by a single route, offering a combined total of 16 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to these services is limited, with residents generally residing 1146 meters away from the nearest stop.

On average, there are two trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately four weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Fernvale is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Fernvale faces significant health challenges, with notable prevalence of common health conditions across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 55% of the total population (~2,232 people), compared to 49.2% across Greater Brisbane.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, impacting 10.7 and 9.3% of residents respectively. However, 64.8% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 60.9% across Greater Brisbane. The area has 15.0% of residents aged 65 and over (608 people), which is lower than the 21.8% in Greater Brisbane. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Fernvale is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Fernvale's population shows low cultural diversity, with 87.3% born in Australia and 90.8% being citizens. English is the primary language spoken at home by 96.8%. Christianity dominates religiously, accounting for 44.9%.

The category 'Other' is slightly overrepresented at 0.6%, compared to Greater Brisbane's 0.5%. Ancestry-wise, the top groups are English (31.4%), Australian (30.5%), and Scottish (7.9%). Notable differences include New Zealanders at 1.3% (vs regional 0.7%), Germans at 6.3% (vs 8.8%), and Samoans at 0.4% (vs 0.1%).

Fernvale's population is younger than the national pattern

At 35 years, Fernvale's median age is nearly matching Greater Brisbane's average of 36, which is somewhat younger than Australia's median age of 38. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Fernvale has a higher percentage of residents aged 5-14 (17.8%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.5%). This concentration of 5-14 year-olds is well above the national average of 12.2%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the percentage of residents aged 75 to 84 has grown from 2.8% to 4.7%, while those aged 65 to 74 have increased from 8.4% to 9.6%. Conversely, the percentage of residents aged 25 to 34 has declined from 12.7% to 11.5%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Fernvale. The 65 to 74 age group is projected to grow by 38%, adding 148 residents to reach a total of 538. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 60% of the population growth, highlighting the trend of demographic aging. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 0 to 4 and 35 to 44 age cohorts.