Fernvale (Qld)

Fernvale lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for Fernvale, as of Nov 2025 its population is estimated at around 4,035. This reflects an increase of 406 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,629. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of Fernvale's resident population at 4,002 following examination of ABS ERP data release in Jun 2024 and an additional 96 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 145 persons per square kilometer. Fernvale's growth rate of 11.2% since the 2021 census exceeded both national (8.9%) and state averages, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 57.99999999999999% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers being positive factors.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023 based on 2021 data were adopted, applying proportional growth weightings from ABS Greater Capital Region projections for each age cohort where necessary. Anticipating future population dynamics, Fernvale is projected to grow by an above median rate, with the suburb expected to gain 562 persons by 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total gain of 9.7% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Fernvale when compared nationally

Fernvale recorded approximately 31 residential properties granted approval each year based on AreaSearch analysis. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 156 homes were approved, with an additional 8 approved so far in FY-26. On average, about 0.9 new residents arrived per new home over the past five financial years, indicating supply is meeting or exceeding demand.

The average construction value of these properties was $360,000, which is below regional levels, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. This year, Fernvale has seen $1.1 million in commercial approvals, reflecting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Fernvale maintains similar construction rates per capita, indicating market balance with the broader area.

All building activity in recent times consists of detached houses, preserving Fernvale's low-density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 130 people per approval, Fernvale is considered a developing area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Fernvale is projected to grow by approximately 390 residents by 2041. Given current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favorable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Fernvale has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified a total of 0 projects that may affect this area. Notable projects include Ipswich City Plan 2025, Ipswich Smart City Program, Ipswich Better Bus Network, and Moreton Bay Regional Council Planning Scheme. The following list outlines those most likely to be relevant.

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The employment environment in Fernvale shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Fernvale's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs. Key sectors include essential services, with an unemployment rate of 3.2% and estimated employment growth of 1.1% in the past year.

As of June 2025, 1,867 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate 0.9% lower than Greater Brisbane's 4.1%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Brisbane's 64.5%. Major employment industries are health care & social assistance, public administration & safety, and construction. Public administration & safety has a notable concentration, at 1.5 times the regional average.

Professional & technical services have limited presence, with 4.0% employment compared to 8.9% regionally. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities, indicated by Census working population vs resident population counts. Over the past year, employment increased by 1.1%, labour force by 0.7%, reducing unemployment by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Brisbane had employment growth of 4.4% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with a similar unemployment rate drop. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest Fernvale's employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data, released for financial year 2022, shows Fernvale's median income among taxpayers is $62,335. The average income in Fernvale during this period was $70,187. Both figures are above the national averages. In Greater Brisbane, the median income was $55,645 and the average was $70,520. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 13.99% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Fernvale's median income would be approximately $71,056 by September 2025, with an average of around $80,006 during the same period. Census data indicates that household, family and personal incomes in Fernvale rank modestly, between the 44th and 51st percentiles. Income distribution shows that 41.9% of individuals (1,690 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999, similar to the regional average of 33.3%. High housing costs consume 15.5% of income in Fernvale, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 53rd percentile.

Fernvale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Fernvale, as per the latest Census data, consisted of 98.3% houses and 1.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Brisbane metro's figures of 96.6% houses and 3.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Fernvale stood at 25.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 51.1% and rented ones at 23.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,630, higher than Brisbane metro's average of $1,517. The median weekly rent in Fernvale was $350, compared to Brisbane metro's $300. Nationally, Fernvale's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,630 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were also lower at $350 compared to the national figure of $375.

Fernvale features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 82.3% of all households, including 39.8% couples with children, 27.1% couples without children, and 14.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 17.7%, with lone person households at 16.1% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Fernvale fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 13.2%, significantly lower than Greater Brisbane's average of 30.5%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.9%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.6%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 46.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them; advanced diplomas account for 11.2% and certificates for 35.4%. Educational participation is high at 32.4%, including 14.8% in primary education, 9.3% in secondary education, and 3.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Fernvale State School serves the local area with an enrollment of 495 students as of a recent report. The school caters to primary education only, with ICSEA value of 980, indicating typical Australian school conditions. Secondary educational options are available in nearby areas.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Fernvale has four operational public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by one route in total, offering 23 weekly passenger trips combined. The accessibility to these stops is limited, with residents usually located 1146 meters away from the nearest stop.

On average, there are three trips per day across all routes, equating to roughly five weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Fernvale is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Fernvale faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. Approximately 55% of Fernvale's total population (~2,219 people) have private health cover, compared to 48.5% across Greater Brisbane.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in Fernvale, affecting 10.7 and 9.3% of residents respectively. However, 64.8% of Fernvale residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 60.9% across Greater Brisbane. In Fernvale, 15.0% of residents are aged 65 and over (605 people), which is lower than the 21.8% in Greater Brisbane. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Fernvale is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Fernvale's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 87.3% of its population born in Australia, 90.8% being citizens, and 96.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Fernvale, comprising 44.9% of people. The most notable overrepresentation was in Other, which makes up 0.6% of the population compared to 0.5% across Greater Brisbane.

In terms of ancestry, the top three represented groups are English at 31.4%, Australian at 30.5%, and Scottish at 7.9%. There were notable divergences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: New Zealand was overrepresented at 1.3% compared to 0.7% regionally, German at 6.3% versus 8.8%, and Samoan at 0.4% versus 0.1%.

Fernvale's population is younger than the national pattern

At 35 years, Fernvale's median age is nearly matching Greater Brisbane's average of 36. This is somewhat younger than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Fernvale has a higher concentration of residents aged 5-14 (17.8%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.5%). The 5-14 concentration in Fernvale is well above the national average of 12.2%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the population aged 75 to 84 has grown from 2.8% to 4.7%, while the 65 to 74 cohort increased from 8.4% to 9.6%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age group has declined from 12.7% to 11.5%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Fernvale. The 65 to 74 cohort is projected to grow by 40%, adding 153 residents to reach a total of 541. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 59% of population growth, emphasizing demographic aging trends. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 0 to 4 and 35 to 44 age groups.