Box Hill South

Population growth drivers in Box Hill South are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validation, the population of the suburb of Box Hill South was estimated at around 10,131 as of Feb 2026. This reflected an increase of 1,640 people (19.3%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,491 people. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimated resident population of 9,058 in Jun 2024 and an additional 74 validated new addresses since the Census date. This resulted in a density ratio of 2,902 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Box Hill South's growth exceeded the national average (9.9%) since the 2021 census, driven primarily by overseas migration. AreaSearch projections for each SA2 area are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 were used with adjustments made employing weighted aggregation methods. Considering these projections, a significant population increase is forecast for the suburb by 2041, with an expected expansion of 3,579 persons reflecting a total increase of 32.2% over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Box Hill South when compared nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Box Hill South has experienced around 78 dwellings receiving development approval each year over the past five financial years ending June 2025. This totals an estimated 392 homes. As of July 2026 (FY-26), 15 approvals have been recorded. Over these five years, an average of 2.7 new residents per year has been gained for each dwelling built, reflecting robust demand that underpins property values.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $705,000, indicating developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties. Additionally, $41.9 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, indicating strong commercial development momentum. When measured against Greater Melbourne, Box Hill South maintains similar construction rates per person, maintaining market balance consistent with the broader area, though building activity has slowed in recent years. New building activity shows 12.0% detached houses and 88.0% medium and high-density housing, a notable shift from the area's existing housing which is currently 66.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. With around 455 people per dwelling approval, Box Hill South shows a developed market.

Looking ahead, Box Hill South is expected to grow by 3,260 residents through to 2041 according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, though buyers may experience heightened competition as the population grows.

Box Hill South has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 12 projects that may impact this region. Notable ones include Wembley Hill Townhomes, Roberts Reserve Masterplan & Sports Pavilion, Box Hill South Community Hub, and Box Hill South Primary School Modernisation. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment positions Box Hill South ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

Box Hill South has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 3.4% as of September 2025, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.7%.

Of its residents, 5,557 were employed by September 2025, with an unemployment rate 1.3% below Greater Melbourne's and workforce participation at 75.0%, similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. Notably, 40.0% of residents worked from home according to Census responses, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key employment industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical services, with a particularly strong specialization in education & training at 1.3 times the regional level. Conversely, transport, postal & warehousing shows lower representation at 2.5% compared to the regional average of 5.2%.

The area has a ratio of 0.9 workers per resident, indicating substantial local employment opportunities. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 3.7%, labour force grew by 3.3%, leading to a 0.4 percentage point decrease in unemployment rate. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Box Hill South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended 30 June 2023, Box Hill South had a median income among taxpayers of $48,406 with an average level standing at $68,631. This is slightly above national averages of $57,688 and $75,164 for Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% from financial year ended 30 June 2023 to September 2025, current estimates would be approximately $52,399 (median) and $74,293 (average). According to the Census conducted in August 2021, household, family and personal incomes in Box Hill South cluster around the 54th percentile nationally. Income analysis reveals that the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 28.6% of residents (2,897 people), consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 32.8% in the same category. Economic strength is evident through 31.1% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. High housing costs consume 17.1% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 59th percentile nationally, with the area's SEIFA income ranking placing it in the 8th decile.

Box Hill South displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Box Hill South, as per the latest Census data, consisted of 66.0% houses and 34.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metropolitan area had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Box Hill South stood at 33.9%, with mortgaged properties at 37.6% and rented dwellings at 28.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,400, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent in Box Hill South was recorded at $425, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Box Hill South's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Box Hill South features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 69.6 percent of all households, including 36.4 percent couples with children, 21.1 percent couples without children, and 10.6 percent single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 30.4 percent, with lone person households at 25.6 percent and group households making up 5.0 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

Box Hill South demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Box Hill South's residents aged 15+ have a higher proportion with university qualifications (49.3%) compared to the national average of 30.4% and the Victorian average of 33.4%. This indicates a significant educational advantage for the area. Bachelor degrees are the most common, held by 29.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 15.5% and graduate diplomas at 4.4%. Vocational pathways account for 21.0%, with advanced diplomas comprising 10.5% and certificates also at 10.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 33.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.3% in tertiary education, 9.1% in primary education, and 8.8% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The Box Hill South public transport analysis shows 52 active stops operating within the area, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 15 different routes, collectively facilitating 2,719 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 174 meters from their nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 78%, followed by trains at 10% and buses at 6%. On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, a high 40.0% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 388 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 52 weekly trips per stop.

Box Hill South's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Box Hill South's health outcomes data shows excellent results, as assessed by AreaSearch through mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Younger cohorts in particular have very low prevalence of common health conditions.

Private health cover is found to be relatively high at approximately 54% of the total population (around 5,466 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues and asthma, affecting 6.7% and 6.6% of residents respectively. About 74.7% of residents report being completely free of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Around 15.5% of residents are aged 65 and over (about 1,570 people). Health outcomes among seniors in the area are above average but rank lower nationally than those of the broader population.

Box Hill South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Box Hill South has a high level of cultural diversity, with 41.4% of its population born overseas and 39.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Box Hill South, accounting for 39.5% of the population. However, Buddhism is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 5.1% versus 4.2%.

The top three ancestry groups are Chinese (20.1%), English (20.0%), and Australian (17.4%). Notably, Hungarian (0.4%) is slightly overrepresented compared to the regional average of 0.3%, while Sri Lankan (0.7%) and Korean (0.8%) also have higher representations than the Greater Melbourne averages of 0.8% and 0.3% respectively.

Box Hill South's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Box Hill South is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. The 15-24 age group is over-represented at 15.3% compared to Greater Melbourne's average, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 14.4%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 15-24 age group has increased from 14.1% to 15.3%, and the 45-54 age group has decreased from 14.4% to 13.5%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Box Hill South, with the 45-54 age group expected to grow by 44% (599 people), reaching 1,967 from 1,367.