Box Hill South

Population growth drivers in Box Hill South are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for Box Hill South, its estimated population is around 9,118 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 627 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,491 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 8,991 following examination of ABS ERP data release in June 2024 and additional 67 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,612 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Box Hill South demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 2.9%, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends forecast a significant increase in the top quartile of Australian statistical areas, with Box Hill South expected to grow by 3,641 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 47.6% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Box Hill South recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Box Hill South has experienced around 91 dwellings receiving development approval per year over the past five financial years ending FY25. This totals an estimated 458 homes. So far in FY26, one approval has been recorded. Over these five years, an average of 2.3 new residents has been gained for each dwelling built, suggesting solid demand supporting property values.

New homes are being constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $705,000, indicating a developer focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. Additionally, $45.7 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Box Hill South has slightly more development, at 23.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period, balancing buyer choice with support for current property values. However, development activity has moderated in recent periods. New development consists of 11.0% detached houses and 89.0% townhouses or apartments, offering affordable entry pathways and attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers.

This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition, currently at 66.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. The location has approximately 955 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market. Population forecasts indicate Box Hill South will gain 4,338 residents through to 2041 based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Box Hill South has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 11 projects likely to affect the region. Notable initiatives include Wembley Hill Townhomes, Roberts Reserve Masterplan & Sports Pavilion, Box Hill South Community Hub, and Box Hill South Primary School Modernisation. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment positions Box Hill South ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

Box Hill South has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 3.5% as of June 2025, which is 1.1% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.0%, based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. There were 5,413 residents in work while workforce participation was broadly similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Resident employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical services. The area has a particular specialization in education & training with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level.

Conversely, transport, postal & warehousing shows lower representation at 2.5% compared to the regional average of 5.2%. The ratio of 0.9 workers for each resident indicates substantial local employment opportunities. Over a 12-month period ending in June 2025, employment increased by 4.0% while labour force grew by 3.2%, resulting in a decrease in unemployment by 0.7 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne where employment rose by 3.5%, the labour force grew by 4.0%, and unemployment rose by 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest potential future demand within Box Hill South. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, indicate national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Box Hill South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

Box Hill South's median income among taxpayers was $48,406 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $68,631 during the same period. These figures were higher than Greater Melbourne's median and average incomes of $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. By September 2025, estimates project the median income to be approximately $54,292 and the average income to reach around $76,977, based on a 12.16% growth in wages since financial year 2022. Census data indicates that incomes in Box Hill South cluster around the 54th percentile nationally. In terms of income distribution, 28.6% of the population falls within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, which is consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 32.8% in the same category. A substantial proportion of high earners (31.1%) indicates strong economic capacity throughout Box Hill South. High housing costs consume 17.1% of income, but strong earnings still place disposable income at the 59th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Box Hill South displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure in Box Hill South, as evaluated at the latest Census, consisted of 66.0% houses and 34.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 60.2% houses and 39.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Box Hill South was at 33.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 37.6% and rented ones at 28.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,400, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,300. Median weekly rent in Box Hill South was $425, compared to Melbourne metro's $412. Nationally, Box Hill South's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,400 versus the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Box Hill South features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 69.6% of all households, including 36.4% couples with children, 21.1% couples without children, and 10.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 30.4%, with lone person households at 25.6% and group households comprising 5.0%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.5.

Box Hill South demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Educational attainment in Box Hill South is notably high, with 49.3% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications. This compares to national figures of 30.4% and state (VIC) figures of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 29.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 15.5% and graduate diplomas at 4.4%. Vocational pathways account for 21.0% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 10.5% and certificates also at 10.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 33.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.3% in tertiary education, 9.1% in primary education, and 8.8% pursuing secondary education. The area has two schools serving students: Roberts McCubbin Primary School and Kingswood College, with a total of 903 students. The academic achievement level is high (ICSEA: 1138). There is one primary school and one K-12 school in the area. The ratio of school places per 100 residents is 9.9, which is below the regional average of 14.4. Some students may attend schools in nearby areas.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Box Hill South has 52 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 15 different routes that together facilitate 3,831 weekly passenger trips. The area's public transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents on average being located just 173 meters from the nearest stop.

The service frequency across all routes averages 547 trips per day, which equates to approximately 73 weekly trips per individual stop.

Box Hill South's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Health outcomes data shows excellent results across Box Hill South, particularly for younger cohorts with low prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately 54% (~4,920 people) have private health cover, compared to 56.0% in Greater Melbourne.

The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues (6.7%) and asthma (6.6%), while 74.7% report no medical ailments, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 73.9%. The area has 15.1% of residents aged 65 and over (1,376 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 17.7%, but health outcomes among seniors require more attention.

Box Hill South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Box Hill South has a high level of cultural diversity, with 41.4% of its population born overseas and 39.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Box Hill South, comprising 39.5% of the population. However, Buddhism is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 5.1% versus 6.0%.

The top three ancestry groups are Chinese (20.1%), English (20.0%), and Australian (17.4%). Notable divergences include Hungarian at 0.4% (vs regional 0.3%), Sri Lankan at 0.7% (vs 0.8%), and Korean at 0.8% (vs 0.7%).

Box Hill South's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Box Hill South is 38 years, close to Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and equivalent to Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Box Hill South has a higher percentage of residents aged 15-24 (15.5%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (14.7%). Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, the proportion of residents aged 15-24 increased from 14.1% to 15.5%, while those aged 25-34 rose from 13.4% to 14.7%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 45-54 decreased from 14.4% to 13.6%. By 2041, Box Hill South's age composition is expected to change significantly. The 45-54 age group is projected to grow by 59%, increasing from 1,240 people in 2021 to 1,968 people by 2041.