Box Hill South

Population growth drivers in Box Hill South are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of Nov 2025, the Box Hill South statistical area (Lv2) has an estimated population of around 10,046. This reflects an increase of 1,555 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,491 people in the area. The change is inferred from the resident population of 9,058, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024), and an additional 67 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,878 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Box Hill South (SA2) experienced an 18.3% growth since the 2021 census, exceeding the national average of 9.7%. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the Box Hill South statistical area (Lv2) is forecasted to have a significant population increase in the top quartile of Australian statistical areas, with an expected growth of 3,616 persons, reflecting an increase of 33.7% over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Box Hill South when compared nationally

Box Hill South has seen around 78 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling approximately 392 homes. As of FY-26, 15 approvals have been recorded. Each new resident gained averages about 2.7 persons per dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25. New homes are valued at around $705,000 on average, indicating a focus on premium properties.

Commercial development approvals in FY-26 totalled $41.9 million. Box Hill South's development levels per person align with Greater Melbourne, maintaining market balance. Recent activity has shown some moderation. New developments comprise 12.0% detached houses and 88.0% townhouses or apartments, offering affordable options and attracting various buyer types. This shift from the existing housing mix of 66.0% houses reflects decreasing developable sites and changing lifestyles.

The area has about 455 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established population. By 2041, Box Hill South is forecasted to gain approximately 3,385 residents. If current development rates persist, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Box Hill South has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 13 projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include Wembley Hill Townhomes, Roberts Reserve Masterplan & Sports Pavilion, Box Hill South Community Hub, and Box Hill South Primary School Modernisation. The following list details projects expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment positions Box Hill South ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

Box Hill South has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 3.4% as of September 2025, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.8%. As of September 2025, 5,570 residents were employed with an unemployment rate 1.3% below Greater Melbourne's and workforce participation similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Residents' employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical services, particularly the latter with a share 1.3 times the regional level. Conversely, transport, postal & warehousing shows lower representation at 2.5% versus the regional average of 5.2%.

The ratio of 0.9 workers per resident indicates substantial local employment opportunities. In the year to September 2025, employment increased by 3.8%, labour force grew by 3.4%, and unemployment fell by 0.4 percentage points in Box Hill South, contrasting with Greater Melbourne where employment rose by 3.0% and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Box Hill South. These projections estimate national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, differing significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Box Hill South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.2% over ten years.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

Box Hill South suburb's income level is slightly above average nationally, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest ATO data for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Box Hill South was $48,406, with an average income of $68,631. These figures compare to Greater Melbourne's median and average incomes of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated current incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $52,399 (median) and $74,293 (average). Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Box Hill South cluster around the 54th percentile nationally. Income distribution reveals that 28.6% of the population (2,873 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 32.8% in the same category. A substantial proportion of high earners (31.1%) are above the $3,000/week threshold, indicating strong economic capacity throughout Box Hill South. High housing costs consume 17.1% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 59th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Box Hill South displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure in Box Hill South, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 28 August 2016, comprised 66.0% houses and 34.0% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is compared to Melbourne metropolitan area's 60.2% houses and 39.8% other dwellings. The level of home ownership in Box Hill South was at 33.9%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (37.6%) or rented (28.6%). As of 2016, the median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,400, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $425. In comparison, Melbourne metropolitan area had mortgage repayments of $2,300 and rents of $412. Nationally, Box Hill South's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Box Hill South features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 69.6% of all households, including 36.4% couples with children, 21.1% couples without children, and 10.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 30.4%, with lone person households at 25.6% and group households comprising 5.0%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.5.

Box Hill South demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Box Hill South's educational attainment is notably higher than national averages. Among residents aged 15+, 49.3% possess university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 33.4% in Victoria. The area's highest qualification level is bachelor degrees at 29.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (15.5%) and graduate diplomas (4.4%). Vocational pathways account for 21.0% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 10.5% and certificates also at 10.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 33.6% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.3% in tertiary education, 9.1% in primary education, and 8.8% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Box Hill South has 52 active public transport stops. These are served by 15 different bus routes that together facilitate 2,719 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents to the nearest stop is 174 meters.

Each day, there are an average of 388 trips across all routes, which equates to around 52 weekly trips per individual stop.

Box Hill South's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Health outcomes data shows excellent results across Box Hill South, with younger age groups having particularly low prevalence of common health conditions.

Approximately 54% (~5,420 people) have private health cover, a rate higher than the Greater Melbourne average. The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues and asthma, affecting 6.7% and 6.6% of residents respectively. A total of 74.7% declare no medical ailments, compared to 73.9% in Greater Melbourne. Box Hill South has 15.1% (1,516 people) aged 65 and over, lower than the 17.7% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention despite being above average.

Box Hill South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Box Hill South has a high cultural diversity, with 41.4% of its population born overseas and 39.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Box Hill South, comprising 39.5% of people. However, Buddhism is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 5.1% versus 6.0%.

The top three ancestry groups are Chinese (20.1%), English (20.0%), and Australian (17.4%). Notably, Hungarian (0.4%) is slightly overrepresented compared to the regional average of 0.3%, while Sri Lankan (0.7%) and Korean (0.8%) have higher representation than their regional averages of 0.8% and 0.7% respectively.

Box Hill South's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Box Hill South is 38 years, similar to Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and equivalent to Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Box Hill South has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (15.5%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (14.7%). Between the 2016 Census and the 2021 Census, the proportion of residents aged 15-24 increased from 14.1% to 15.5%, while the proportion of those aged 25-34 rose from 13.4% to 14.7%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 45-54 decreased from 14.4% to 13.6%. By 2041, Box Hill South's age composition is projected to change significantly. The 45-54 age group is expected to grow by 44%, reaching 1,969 people from the previous total of 1,366.