Box Hill South

Population growth drivers in Box Hill South are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

As per ABS population updates for the broader area and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of Box Hill South's estimated population is 8,335 as of May 2026. This figure reflects a decrease of 156 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,491. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of resident population at 8,083 following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release in June 2025 and an additional 73 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,388 persons per square kilometer, placing Box Hill South in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, it utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made employing weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends forecast a significant increase in the top quartile of Australian statistical areas, with Box Hill South expected to grow by 3,124 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 34.5% over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Box Hill South according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers from statistical area data, Box Hill South has experienced around 77 dwellings receiving development approval per year over the past five financial years ending June 2021. This totals an estimated 387 homes. As of April 2026, 17 approvals have been recorded in this financial year so far. The population in Box Hill South has declined in recent years, but development activity has remained adequate relative to population changes, which may benefit buyers.

New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $705,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. Additionally, $41.9 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Box Hill South has similar development levels per person, preserving market equilibrium consistent with surrounding areas, although development activity has moderated in recent periods. New development consists of 12.0% detached houses and 88.0% townhouses or apartments, offering affordable entry pathways and attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 66.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and demand for more diverse, affordable housing options.

The location has approximately 484 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area with a population forecast to gain 2,872 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Development is keeping pace with projected growth, but buyers may face increasing competition as the population expands.

Box Hill South has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 11 projects that may impact the area. Notable ones include Wembley Hill Townhomes, Roberts Reserve Masterplan & Sports Pavilion, Box Hill South Community Hub, and Box Hill South Primary School Modernisation. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis places Box Hill South well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Box Hill South has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate is 2.5%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, 4,388 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.2% compared to Greater Melbourne's 4.8%.

Workforce participation in Box Hill South is lower at 66.4%, against Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. A significant 40.0% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical services. Notably, employment in education & training is at 1.3 times the regional average.

Meanwhile, transport, postal & warehousing has limited presence with 2.5% employment compared to 5.2% regionally. The ratio of 0.9 workers per resident indicates substantial local employment opportunities. Over a 12-month period ending in June 2026, Box Hill South's labour force decreased by 3.3%, alongside a 3.2% decline in employment, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 2.4%, with the labour force growing by 2.8% and unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. According to Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25, national employment is projected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Box Hill South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data, released for financial year 2023, shows Box Hill South's median income among taxpayers is $48,406. The average income in the suburb is $68,631. Both figures are above national averages. Greater Melbourne has a median income of $57,688 and an average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Box Hill South would be approximately $53,063 (median) and $75,233 (average) as of March 2026. Census data indicates that incomes in Box Hill South cluster around the 54th percentile nationally. The earnings profile shows that 28.6% of residents earn between $1,500 and $2,999 per week, with a total of 2,383 people in this income bracket. This pattern is similar to surrounding regions where 32.8% of residents occupy the same earnings range. The suburb demonstrates affluence with 31.1% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 17.1% of income in Box Hill South. Despite this, strong earnings place disposable income at the 59th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Box Hill South displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Box Hill South, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 66.0% houses and 34.0% other dwellings. In comparison, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Box Hill South was 33.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 37.6% and rented dwellings at 28.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,400, above Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Box Hill South was $425, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Box Hill South's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Box Hill South features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households comprise 69.6% of all households, including 36.4% couples with children, 21.1% couples without children, and 10.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 30.4%, with lone person households at 25.6% and group households comprising 5.0%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which matches the Greater Melbourne average.

Box Hill South demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Box Hill South residents aged 15 and above have a higher educational attainment than national and state averages. Specifically, 49.3% of residents hold university qualifications compared to Australia's 30.4% and Victoria's 33.4%. This is driven by bachelor degrees (29.4%), postgraduate qualifications (15.5%), and graduate diplomas (4.4%). Vocational pathways account for 21.0%, with advanced diplomas at 10.5% and certificates also at 10.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 33.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes tertiary education (9.3%), primary education (9.1%), and secondary education (8.8%).

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Box Hill South has 52 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 15 different routes that together facilitate 2,719 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents on average located 174 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Car remains the primary mode of transport at 78%, while train accounts for 10% and bus for 6%. On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, a high 40.0% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 388 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 52 weekly trips per individual stop.

Box Hill South's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Box Hill South's health outcomes show excellent results, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Notably, younger cohorts in this area have a very low prevalence of common health conditions.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 54% of the total population (around 4,497 people), which is slightly lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 56.7%. Mental health issues and asthma are the most prevalent medical conditions in Box Hill South, affecting 6.7% and 6.6% of residents respectively. A higher proportion, 74.7%, declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. The area has a population with 14.7% aged 65 and over (around 1,225 people). Health outcomes among seniors in Box Hill South are above average but rank lower nationally than those of the broader population.

Box Hill South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Box Hill South has high cultural diversity, with 41.4% of its population born overseas and 39.6% speaking a language other than English at home. The predominant religion is Christianity, accounting for 39.5%. Buddhism is overrepresented, comprising 5.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 4.2%.

Top ancestry groups are Chinese (20.1%), English (20.0%), and Australian (17.4%). Hungarian (0.4%) is notably higher than the regional average of 0.3%. Sri Lankan representation is 0.7%, slightly lower than the region's 0.8%. Korean is also notable at 0.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 0.3%.

Box Hill South's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Box Hill South was 38 years as of a recent date, close to Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and equivalent to Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Box Hill South had a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (15.5%) but fewer residents aged 35-44 (14.4%). Between the 2021 Census and a recent date, the population aged 25-34 grew from 13.4% to 15.2%, while those aged 15-24 increased from 14.1% to 15.5%. Conversely, the 45-54 age group declined from 14.4% to 13.1%, and the 55-64 group dropped from 12.0% to 10.9%. By 2041, Box Hill South's age composition is expected to shift notably. Leading this demographic change, the 45-54 age group is projected to grow by 46%, adding 499 people and reaching a total of 1,591 from its previous count of 1,091.