Black Hill (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Black Hill reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

By Nov 2025, Black Hill's population is estimated at around 2,206. This reflects an increase of 82 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,124. The change is inferred from ABS ERP data released in Jun 2024, indicating a resident population of 2,162 for surrounding areas applied to Black Hill by AreaSearch, and an additional validated new address since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,253 persons per square kilometer, above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's 3.9% growth since census positions it within 2.1 percentage points of the non-metro area's 6.0%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 43.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including natural growth and interstate migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb is forecasted to increase by 669 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 29.5% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Black Hill according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Black Hill has minimal residential development activity with 7 dwelling approvals annually over five years. These low development levels reflect the rural nature of the area where development is typically driven by specific local housing needs rather than broad market demand. Note; with such low approval numbers, yearly growth figures and relativities can vary considerably based on individual projects.

Black Hill has substantially lower development levels than Rest of Vic.. This activity level is similarly below national patterns. Further, new construction has been completely comprised of standalone homes, aligning with rural living preferences for space and privacy. Interestingly, developers are building more traditional houses than the current mix suggests (84.0% at Census), indicating continued strong demand for family homes despite density pressures.

With around 871 people per dwelling approval, Black Hill reflects a highly mature market. Population forecasts indicate Black Hill will gain 651 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Black Hill has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely to impact the area: Eastwood Community Hub, Ballarat Station Upgrade, Ballarat Base Hospital Redevelopment, and Ballarat Co-Operative Education and Skills City Centre are key projects, with the following list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Black Hill remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Black Hill has a well-educated workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate is 3.6% and there was an estimated employment growth of 7.3% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of June 2025, 1,149 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.2% below Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation is at 60.6%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. The area shows strong specialization in education & training with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing employs just 0.5% of local workers, below Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%. Over a 12-month period ending Sep-22, employment increased by 7.3% and labour force increased by 6.8%, causing unemployment to fall by 0.4 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of Vic., where employment contracted by 0.9%, the labour force fell by 0.4%, and unemployment rose 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Black Hill's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2022 indicates that median income in Black Hill is $49,702, with an average income of $63,815. This is lower than the national average. In Rest of Vic., median income was $48,741 and average income was $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% from financial year ending June 2022 to September 2025, estimated median income in Black Hill would be approximately $55,746 and average income would be around $71,575 by that date. According to census data, personal income ranks at the 50th percentile ($805 weekly) and household income is at the 34th percentile. Income analysis shows that 31.6% of residents (697 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, similar to regional levels where 30.3% are in this bracket. After housing expenses, 86.3% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Black Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Black Hill, as per the latest Census evaluation, 84.2% of dwellings were houses while 15.8% consisted of other types such as semi-detached units and apartments. In comparison, Non-Metro Vic. had 85.6% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Black Hill stood at 33.7%, similar to Non-Metro Vic.'s figure. Mortgaged dwellings accounted for 30.8% and rented dwellings made up 35.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,393, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,499 and significantly below the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent figure for Black Hill was recorded at $290, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $300 and substantially lower than the national figure of $375.

Black Hill features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 60.4% of all households, including 22.8% couples with children, 25.3% couples without children, and 10.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 39.6%, with lone person households at 34.7% and group households comprising 4.3%. The median household size is 2.2 people, smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Black Hill exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational attainment in Black Hill is significantly higher than broader benchmarks. As of 2021, 32.3% of residents aged 15 and above hold university qualifications, compared to 21.7% in the rest of Victoria and 24.6% in the SA4 region. Bachelor degrees are most common at 19.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.3%) and graduate diplomas (4.5%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 32.3% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 11.6% and certificates at 20.7%. Educational participation is high, with 29.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the 2021 census.

This includes 9.3% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 5.6% pursuing tertiary education. Black Hill Primary School provides local educational services within Black Hill, with an enrollment of 401 students as of 2021. The school focuses exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in surrounding areas. As of the latest ICSEA data, the area demonstrates typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1046) with balanced educational opportunities.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Black Hill indicates that there are 13 active transport stops currently operating. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 506 weekly passenger trips provided by the service. The accessibility of transport is rated as excellent, with residents typically located an average of 197 meters from the nearest transport stop.

The service frequency averages 72 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 38 weekly trips per individual stop. There are three individual routes servicing these stops.

Health performance in Black Hill is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Black Hill faces significant health challenges, as evidenced by its health data.

The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover in Black Hill is approximately 52% of the total population (~1,148 people), which exceeds the average for SA2 areas. Mental health issues and asthma are the most prevalent medical conditions in the area, affecting 12.5% and 9.1% of residents respectively. Conversely, 61.4% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 62.3% across Rest of Vic. Black Hill has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 18.8% (414 people), than the 17.8% in Rest of Vic. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly aligning with the general population's health profile.

Black Hill ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Black Hill's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 88.2% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia (86.5%), and speaking English only at home (91.1%). Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 41.7% of Black Hill's population. The 'Other' religious category showed slight overrepresentation at 0.8%, compared to 1.0% regionally.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups in Black Hill were English (32.1%), Australian (23.0%), and Irish (13.0%). Notably, Dutch ancestry was overrepresented at 2.8% (vs regional 2.1%), Scottish at 9.0% (vs 9.2%), and Maltese at 0.6% (vs regional 0.4%).

Black Hill's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Black Hill is 40 years, which is slightly below Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 but above the Australian median of 38. Compared to Rest of Vic., the 35-44 cohort is notably higher at 16.2% locally, while the 75-84 age group is lower at 5.0%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the 35-44 age group has increased from 15.1% to 16.2%, whereas the 55-64 cohort has decreased from 12.8% to 11.4%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant changes in Black Hill's demographics. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 73% from 313 to 541 residents, while the 55-64 group will see more modest growth of 4%, adding only 10 residents.