Black Hill (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Black Hill reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Black Hill's population is estimated at 2,142 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase from the 2021 Census figure of 2,124 people, a rise of 18 individuals (0.8%). The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 2,082 following examination of ABS' ERP data release in June 2024 and one validated new address since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1,217 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 43.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including natural growth and interstate migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 using a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, the suburb of Black Hill (Vic.) is forecasted to experience a significant population increase in the top quartile of national non-metropolitan areas. By 2041, the area is expected to grow by 660 persons, reflecting an overall increase of 33.0% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Black Hill according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Black Hill saw minimal development activity over the five-year period from 2015 to 2019, with an average of less than one approval per year. This resulted in a total of two dwellings being constructed during this time. The low development levels can be attributed to the rural nature of the area, where housing needs are typically addressed on a local basis rather than driven by broader market demands.

It is important to note that due to the small sample size, individual development projects could significantly impact annual growth and relative statistics. Compared to the rest of Victoria and national averages, Black Hill's development activity was notably lower during this period.

Black Hill has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified two major projects expected to affect this region. Notable projects include Central Neighbourhood Activity Centre in Ballarat North, Eastwood Community Hub, Ballarat Station Upgrade, and Ballarat Base Hospital Redevelopment. The following details those likely to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Black Hill has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Black Hill has an educated workforce with notable representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate is 3.8%, with estimated employment growth of 2.1% over the past year (AreaSearch data). As of September 2025, 1,150 residents are employed, matching Rest of Vic.'s unemployment rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation is high at 68.8% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 61.4%. Home workership stands at 23.7%, possibly influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. Education & training is particularly specialized with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 0.5% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%. Limited local job opportunities are suggested by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 2.1%, labour force by 1.8%, reducing unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. Rest of Vic., however, saw employment decline by 0.7% and unemployment rise marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia projects national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Black Hill's industry mix suggests local employment could grow by 6.9% in five years and 14.2% in ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Black Hill is below the national average. The median income is $49,702 while the average income stands at $63,815. This contrasts with Rest of Vic.'s figures where the median income is $50,954 and the average income is $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Black Hill would be approximately $53,802 (median) and $69,080 (average) as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, personal income ranks at the 50th percentile ($805 weekly), while household income sits at the 34th percentile. In terms of income distribution, 31.6% of Black Hill's population (676 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, similar to the surrounding region where 30.3% occupy this range. After housing expenses, 86.3% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Black Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Black Hill's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 84.2% houses and 15.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro Vic. had 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Black Hill was at 33.7%, with the rest being mortgaged (30.8%) or rented (35.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,393, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent figure was $290, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Black Hill's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,393 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Black Hill features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 60.4% of all households, including 22.8% couples with children, 25.3% couples without children, and 10.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 39.6%, with lone person households at 34.7% and group households making up 4.3%. The median household size is 2.2 people, smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Black Hill exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Black Hill's educational attainment is notably higher than broader benchmarks. Among residents aged 15+, 32.3% hold university qualifications, compared to 21.7% in the Rest of Vic. and 24.6% in the SA4 region. Bachelor degrees are most common at 19.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.3%) and graduate diplomas (4.5%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 32.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 11.6% and certificates at 20.7%.

Educational participation is high, with 29.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.3% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 5.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Black Hill has 13 active public transport stops. These are served by three routes offering a total of 451 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 197 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward and cars remain the dominant mode at 93%. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling, below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 23.7% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 64 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 34 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Black Hill is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Black Hill faces substantial health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

Both younger and older age cohorts exhibit notable prevalence of common health conditions. The area has approximately 52% private health cover, slightly lower than the average SA2 area (~1,115 people). Mental health issues and asthma are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 12.5% and 9.1% of residents respectively. Conversely, 61.4% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Rest of Vic. The working-age population faces significant health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. Black Hill has 18.4% of residents aged 65 and over (394 people), lower than the 23.9% in Rest of Vic. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Black Hill ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Black Hill's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 88.2% of its population being Australian citizens and 86.5% born in Australia. Additionally, 91.1% spoke English only at home. The predominant religion was Christianity, practiced by 41.7% of Black Hill's residents.

However, the 'Other' religious category showed an overrepresentation, comprising 0.8% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 0.8%. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (32.1%), Australian (23.0%), and Irish (13.0%). Notably, Dutch ancestry was overrepresented at 2.8%, Scottish at 9.0%, and Maltese at 0.6% compared to regional averages.

Black Hill's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Black Hill is 39 years, which is significantly lower than Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 but essentially aligned with Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Rest of Vic., Black Hill has a higher proportion of residents aged 35-44 (16.6%) but fewer residents aged 75-84 (4.9%). According to the 2021 Census, the proportion of residents aged 35-44 increased from 15.1% to 16.6%, while those aged 25-34 increased from 13.5% to 14.7%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 55-64 decreased from 12.8% to 11.2%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Black Hill's age structure. Notably, the 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 69%, adding 217 people and reaching a total of 532 from 314. Meanwhile, the 55-64 age cohort is projected to grow modestly by 9%, with an increase of 21 people.