Terranora - North Tumbulgum
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Terranora - North Tumbulgum reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Terranora - North Tumbulgum's population is approximately 3,403 as of August 2025. This figure represents an increase of 79 people, a growth rate of 2.4%, since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 3,324. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 3,394 in June 2024 and an additional 77 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 117 persons per square kilometer. Terranora - North Tumbulgum's growth rate of 2.4% is within 0.8 percentage points of the SA4 region's growth rate of 3.2%. The primary driver of population growth was overseas migration, contributing approximately 59.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

However, all demographic factors including natural growth and interstate migration were positive contributors. AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. According to demographic trends, the area is expected to expand by approximately 340 persons to reach 2041 based on the latest population numbers, reflecting an increase of 9.7% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Terranora - North Tumbulgum according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Terranora - North Tumbulgum has seen approximately 16 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, with a total of 84 homes approved between FY21 and FY25. An additional 8 homes have been approved in FY26 so far. On average, around 0.3 people per year have moved to the area for each dwelling built during this period, indicating that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand.

The average expected construction cost value of these dwellings is $723,000, suggesting a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. This financial year has also seen $9.9 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to the rest of NSW, Terranora - North Tumbulgum has experienced 61.0% more new home approvals per capita since FY21. The area's new development consists predominantly of detached dwellings (94.0%) with a smaller proportion of attached dwellings (6.0%), maintaining its traditional low-density character and appealing to those seeking family homes with space.

As of current dwelling approval rates, there are approximately 132 people per dwelling approval in the area. Looking ahead, Terranora - North Tumbulgum is projected to grow by 331 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Terranora - North Tumbulgum has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 35thth percentile nationally

Twelve infrastructure projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Key projects include Serramar Estate (formerly Sherpa Terranora Estate), Terranora Village Estate, Terranora Masterplanned Community, and Currumbin Eco-Parkland. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market strength in Terranora - North Tumbulgum positions it well ahead of most Australian regions

Terranora - North Tumbulgum had an unemployment rate of 1.3% as of June 2025. It has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented.

There were 1,732 residents employed while the unemployment rate was 2.3% below Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation in the area was 64.5%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Leading employment industries among residents comprised health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction had notable concentration with employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing had limited presence with 1.0% employment compared to 5.3% regionally. Analysis of SALM and ABS data for a 12-month period showed labour force decreasing by 4.8% alongside a 5.0% employment decline, causing unemployment rate to rise by 0.2 percentage points. This contrasted with Rest of NSW where employment fell by 0.1%, labour force expanded by 0.3%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 estimated national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Terranora - North Tumbulgum's employment mix suggested local growth of approximately 6.6%% over five years and 13.5% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that Terranora - North Tumbulgum has lower income levels compared to the national average. The median income is $45,245 while the average stands at $56,617. In contrast, Rest of NSW's median income is $49,459 with an average of $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $50,950 (median) and $63,756 (average). Census data indicates household income ranks at the 72nd percentile ($2,100 weekly), with personal income at the 50th percentile. Distribution data shows that the largest segment comprises 33.4% earning between $1,500 to $2,999 weekly (1,136 residents). This is similar to patterns seen in the region where 29.9% fall within this range. Housing accounts for 14.0% of income. The area's strong earnings rank residents within the 75th percentile for disposable income. The SEIFA income ranking places Terranora - North Tumbulgum in the 7th decile.

Terranora - North Tumbulgum is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

The dwelling structure in Terranora - North Tumbulgum, as per the latest Census, consisted of 99.1% houses and 1.0% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is compared to Non-Metro NSW's 66.3% houses and 33.8% other dwellings. The home ownership level in Terranora - North Tumbulgum was similar to that of Non-Metro NSW at 41.9%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (47.4%) or rented (10.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,167, higher than the Non-Metro NSW average of $1,872. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $538, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $400. Nationally, Terranora - North Tumbulgum's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Terranora - North Tumbulgum features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 85.3% of all households, including 42.5% couples with children, 32.5% couples without children, and 9.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 14.7%, with lone person households at 12.4% and group households making up 2.0%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Terranora - North Tumbulgum exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Terranora show that 24.8% of residents aged 15 and above hold university degrees, compared to 32.2% in New South Wales (NSW). Bachelor degrees are the most common at 18.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 4.5% and graduate diplomas at 2.2%. Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 40.5% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 11.7% and certificates at 28.8%. Educational participation is high, with 31.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 12.1% in primary, 9.1% in secondary, and 3.8% in tertiary education.

Terranora Public School and Lindisfarne Anglican Grammar School serve a total of 2,252 students in the area. The Index of Community Socio-Educational Advantage (ICSEA) for the area is 1073, indicating above-average socio-educational conditions. The educational mix includes one primary school and one K-12 school. Terranora functions as an education hub with 66.2 school places per 100 residents, significantly higher than the regional average of 14.3, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 45 active stops operating in Terranora - North Tumbulgum. These are mixed bus stops serviced by 44 routes providing 335 weekly passenger trips. Accessibility is rated good with residents located at an average of 216 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 47 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 7 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Terranora - North Tumbulgum is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Terranora - North Tumbulgum shows superior health outcomes, with low prevalence of common conditions across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 48% (~1,633 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (8.7%) and asthma (7.2%). A majority (70.0%) report no medical ailments, higher than Rest of NSW's 64.2%. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 21.1% (717 people), compared to Rest of NSW's 26.1%. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, mirroring the general population's health profile.

Terranora - North Tumbulgum is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Terranora-North Tumbulgum was found to have below average cultural diversity, with 86.0% of its population born in Australia, 92.4% being citizens, and 96.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Terranora-North Tumbulgum, comprising 53.3% of people there. However, Judaism appears to be overrepresented, making up 0.2% of the population compared to the Rest of NSW's 0.2%.

The top three ancestry groups are English at 32.5%, Australian at 29.1%, and Irish at 10.1%. Notably, Hungarian (0.4%), French (0.7%), and New Zealand (0.9%) ethnicities are overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.2%, 0.5%, and 0.7% respectively.

Terranora - North Tumbulgum hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Terranora - North Tumbulgum has a median age of 43, matching the Rest of NSW figure and exceeding the national average of 38. The area's age profile shows that those aged 15-24 are notably prominent at 14.7%, while those aged 25-34 comprise only 6.7%. According to the 2021 Census, the 15-24 age group has increased from 12.0% to 14.7%, and the 75-84 cohort has risen from 4.9% to 7.5%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group has decreased from 15.9% to 14.3%, and the 25-34 group has fallen from 8.0% to 6.7%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Terranora - North Tumbulgum's age structure. Notably, the 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 40%, reaching 359 people from 256. Conversely, numbers in the 5-14 age range are projected to decrease by 76.