Terranora - North Tumbulgum

An assessment of population growth drivers in Terranora - North Tumbulgum reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Terranora - North Tumbulgum's population was 3,403 as of November 2025, a 79 person increase from the 2021 Census figure of 3,324. This growth represents a 2.4% rise since the census date. The change is inferred from an estimated resident population of 3,394 in June 2024 and 77 validated new addresses post-census. The population density was 117 persons per square kilometer at this time. Terranora - North Tumbulgum's growth rate of 2.4% since the census is within 0.9 percentage points of its SA4 region's growth rate of 3.3%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 59.0% to overall population gains recently, with natural growth and interstate migration also being positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, Terranora - North Tumbulgum's population is expected to increase by approximately 340 persons to reach a total of 3,743 in 2041, reflecting an overall increase of 9.7% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Terranora - North Tumbulgum according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Terranora - North Tumbulgum has seen approximately 16 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, with a total of 84 approved between FY21 and FY25. As of FY26, 13 approvals have been recorded so far. The average population growth per dwelling built during this period is 0.3 people per year.

This indicates that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $595,000, suggesting a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY26 alone, $9.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating moderate levels of commercial development compared to previous years. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Terranora - North Tumbulgum has seen 61.0% more new home approvals per capita between FY21 and FY25.

This should provide buyers with ample choice in the area. The composition of new developments consists of 94.0% detached dwellings and 6.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. Currently, there are approximately 132 people per dwelling approval in the location, indicating a low-density market. Looking ahead, Terranora - North Tumbulgum is projected to grow by 331 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Terranora - North Tumbulgum has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. AreaSearch identified 12 projects potentially impacting the area. Key projects include Serramar Estate (formerly Sherpa Terranora Estate), Terranora Village Estate, Terranora Masterplanned Community, and Currumbin Eco-Parkland. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market strength in Terranora - North Tumbulgum positions it well ahead of most Australian regions

Terranora - North Tumbulgum had an unemployment rate of 1.5% as of September 2025, with 1,743 residents employed. The area's unemployment rate was 2.3 percentage points lower than the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%, and its workforce participation rate was higher at 64.5%.

The leading employment industries were health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction had a notably high concentration with employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average, while agriculture, forestry & fishing had limited presence at 1.0% compared to 5.3% regionally. Between September 2024 and September 2025, the labour force decreased by 2.6%, and employment declined by 3.1%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 0.4 percentage points. In comparison, the Rest of NSW saw employment fall by 0.5%, labour force contract by 0.1%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points.

Statewide, NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs) as of 25-Nov-25, with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Terranora - North Tumbulgum's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that income in Terranora - North Tumbulgum SA2 is lower than average nationally. The median income is $45,245 and the average is $56,617. This contrasts with Rest of NSW's figures where the median income is $49,459 and the average is $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated current incomes as of September 2025 are approximately $50,950 (median) and $63,756 (average). Census data shows household income ranks at the 72nd percentile ($2,100 weekly), while personal income is at the 50th percentile. Distribution data indicates that the largest segment comprises 33.4% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (1,136 residents), reflecting patterns seen in the region where 29.9% similarly occupy this range. Housing accounts for 14.0% of income, and strong earnings rank residents within the 75th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Terranora - North Tumbulgum is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Terranora - North Tumbulgum's dwelling structure, as assessed in the latest Census, consisted of 99.1% houses and 1.0% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings, contrasting with Non-Metro NSW's figures of 66.3% houses and 33.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Terranora - North Tumbulgum stood at 41.9%, aligning with Non-Metro NSW's level, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (47.4%) or rented (10.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,167, surpassing Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,872. Meanwhile, the median weekly rent figure stood at $538, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $400. Nationally, Terranora - North Tumbulgum's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Terranora - North Tumbulgum features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 85.3% of all households, including 42.5% couples with children, 32.5% couples without children, and 9.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 14.7%, with lone person households at 12.4% and group households comprising 2.0%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Terranora - North Tumbulgum exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

In Terranora-North Tumbulgum trail region, 24.8% of residents aged 15 and above hold university degrees, compared to the state average of 32.2% in New South Wales as of a recent benchmark. The most common educational qualification is bachelor degrees at 18.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 40.5% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (11.7%) and certificates (28.8%). Educational participation is high in the region, with 31.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 12.1% in primary education, 9.1% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.1% in primary education, 9.1% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 45 active public transport stops operating within Terranora - North Tumbulgum. These stops are served by a mix of bus routes, totalling 44 individual routes. Collectively, these routes provide 335 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport is rated as good, with residents typically located 216 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 47 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 7 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Terranora - North Tumbulgum is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Terranora-North Tumbulgum shows better-than-average health results. The prevalence of common health conditions is low across both younger and older age groups.

Approximately 48% of its total population (~1,633 people) has private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 8.7% of residents) and asthma (7.2%). 70.0% of residents report no medical ailments, higher than Rest of NSW's 64.2%. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 21.1% (717 people), compared to Rest of NSW's 26.1%. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, mirroring the general population's health profile.

Terranora - North Tumbulgum is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Terranora-North Tumbulgum, surveyed in 2016, had low cultural diversity with 86.0% born in Australia, 92.4% being citizens, and 96.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion (53.3%). Judaism showed slight overrepresentation (0.2% vs 0.2% regionally).

Top ancestry groups were English (32.5%), Australian (29.1%), and Irish (10.1%). Hungarian (0.4%), French (0.7%), and New Zealand (0.9%) showed notable divergences from regional averages of 0.2%, 0.5%, and 0.7% respectively.

Terranora - North Tumbulgum's median age exceeds the national pattern

Terranora - North Tumbulgum has a median age of 43, matching the Rest of NSW figure and exceeding the national average of 38. The area's age profile shows that those aged 15-24 make up 14.7%, while those aged 25-34 comprise only 6.7%. Since the 2021 Census, the proportion of people aged 15 to 24 has increased from 12.0% to 14.7%, and the 75 to 84 age group has risen from 4.9% to 7.5%. Conversely, those aged 5 to 14 have decreased from 15.9% to 14.3%, and the 25 to 34 cohort has fallen from 8.0% to 6.7%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant changes in Terranora - North Tumbulgum's age structure. The 75 to 84 group is expected to grow by 40%, reaching 359 people from the current figure of 256. Meanwhile, numbers in the 5 to 14 age range are projected to decrease by 76%.