Terranora - North Tumbulgum

An assessment of population growth drivers in Terranora - North Tumbulgum reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Terranora - North Tumbulgum's population is around 3,398 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 74 people (2.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,324 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 3,394 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 77 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 117 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Terranora - North Tumbulgum's 2.2% growth since the census positions it within 1.9 percentage points of the SA4 region (4.1%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 59.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers, including natural growth and interstate migration, were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, a population increase just below the median of Australia's regional areas is expected, with the area expected to grow by 340 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 9.9% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Terranora - North Tumbulgum according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Terranora - North Tumbulgum has seen around 16 new homes approved each year, with 84 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 13 so far in FY-26. Given an average of only 0.3 new residents per year per dwelling constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply is meeting or surpassing demand, providing greater buyer choice while supporting potential for population growth above projections. New homes are being built at an average value of $595,000, revealing that developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. Additionally, $9.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, suggesting balanced commercial development activity.

Relative to the Rest of NSW, Terranora - North Tumbulgum has 61.0% more development activity (per person), which should provide buyers with ample choice. New development consists of 94.0% detached dwellings and 6.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The location has approximately 132 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market.

Looking ahead, Terranora - North Tumbulgum is expected to grow by 336 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Terranora - North Tumbulgum has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 12 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Serramar Estate (Formerly Sherpa Terranora Estate), Currumbin Eco-Parkland, Terranora Village Estate, and Terranora Masterplanned Community, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The exceptional employment performance in Terranora - North Tumbulgum places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Terranora - North Tumbulgum features a skilled workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, and an unemployment rate of just 1.5%. As of December 2025, 1,769 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 2.4% below Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%, and workforce participation is fairly standard (64.4% compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 18.1% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in construction, with employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average. Meanwhile, agriculture, forestry & fishing has a limited presence with 1.0% employment compared to 5.3% regionally. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw the labour force decrease by 0.4% alongside a 0.8% employment decline, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.4 percentage points. This compares to Regional NSW, where employment fell by 1.2%, the labour force contracted by 0.8%, and unemployment rose 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Terranora - North Tumbulgum. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Terranora - North Tumbulgum's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.5% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for FY-23 reveals that income in the Terranora - North Tumbulgum SA2 is lower than average on a national basis, with the median assessed at $49,248 while the average income stands at $60,736. This contrasts with Regional NSW's figures of a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $53,611 (median) and $66,117 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household income ranks at the 72nd percentile ($2,100 weekly), while personal income sits at the 50th percentile. Distribution data shows the largest segment comprises 33.4% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (1,134 residents), reflecting patterns seen in the region where 29.9% similarly occupy this range. Housing accounts for 14.0% of income while strong earnings rank residents within the 75th percentile for disposable income and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Terranora - North Tumbulgum is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Terranora - North Tumbulgum, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 99.1% houses and 1.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Terranora - North Tumbulgum was higher than that of Regional NSW, at 41.9%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (47.4%) or rented (10.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Regional NSW average at $2,167, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $538, compared to Regional NSW's $1,733 and $330. Nationally, Terranora - North Tumbulgum's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Terranora - North Tumbulgum features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 85.3% of all households, comprising 42.5% couples with children, 32.5% couples without children, and 9.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 14.7%, with lone person households at 12.4% and group households comprising 2.0% of the total. The median household size of 3.0 people is larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Terranora - North Tumbulgum exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Terranora - North Tumbulgum trail regional benchmarks, with 24.8% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 32.2% in NSW. This gap highlights potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees lead at 18.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 40.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.7%) and certificates (28.8%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.3% of residents aged 15+ currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.1% in primary education, 9.1% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 49 active transport stops operating within Terranora - North Tumbulgum, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 44 individual routes, collectively providing 335 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 216 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 97%. Vehicle ownership averages 2.2 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. Some 18.1% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 47 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 6 weekly trips per individual stop.

Terranora - North Tumbulgum's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Terranora - North Tumbulgum, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population and near the national average across older, at-risk cohorts. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 49% of the total population (~1,671 people), compared to 51.9% across Regional NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 8.7% and 7.2% of residents, respectively, while 70.0% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. Working-age residents are notably healthy with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 21.5% of residents aged 65 and over (729 people), which is lower than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, though ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

Terranora - North Tumbulgum is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Terranora - North Tumbulgum was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 86.0% of its population born in Australia, 92.4% being citizens, and 96.1% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Terranora - North Tumbulgum is Christianity, which makes up 53.3% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Judaism, which comprises 0.2% of the population, compared to 0.1% across Regional NSW.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Terranora - North Tumbulgum are English, comprising 32.5% of the population, Australian, comprising 29.1% of the population, and Irish, comprising 10.1% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Hungarian is notably overrepresented at 0.4% of Terranora - North Tumbulgum (vs 0.2% regionally), French at 0.7% (vs 0.4%) and New Zealand at 0.9% (vs 0.4%).

Terranora - North Tumbulgum's median age exceeds the national pattern

With a median age of 43, Terranora - North Tumbulgum is equal to the Regional NSW figure of 43 and well above the 38-year national average. The age profile shows 15 - 24 year-olds are particularly prominent (15.2%), while the 25 - 34 group is comparatively smaller (7.0%) than in Regional NSW. Since the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 12.0% to 15.2% of the population, while the 75 to 84 cohort increased from 4.9% to 7.7%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 15.9% to 13.6% and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 14.8% to 13.6%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Terranora - North Tumbulgum's age structure. Leading the demographic shift, the 75 to 84 group will grow by 38% (98 people), reaching 359 from 260. Conversely, numbers in the 5 to 14 age range are expected to fall by 54.