Terranora - North Tumbulgum

An assessment of population growth drivers in Terranora - North Tumbulgum reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Terranora - North Tumbulgum's population is around 3,398 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 74 people (2.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,324 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 3,394 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 77 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 117 persons per square kilometer. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 59.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and interstate migration were positive factors. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year.

For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward with demographic trends, a population increase just below the median of non-metropolitan areas nationally is expected, with the area expected to expand by 340 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 9.9% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Terranora - North Tumbulgum according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Terranora - North Tumbulgum has seen approximately 16 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years. Between FY21 and FY25, 84 homes were approved, with an additional 13 approved in FY26 to date. The average population growth per dwelling built over these years was 0.3 people annually.

This indicates that new supply has been keeping pace with or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and allowing for potential population growth beyond current forecasts. The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $595,000, suggesting a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY26, $9.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating moderate levels of commercial development compared to residential. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Terranora - North Tumbulgum has seen 61.0% more new home approvals per capita between FY21 and FY25.

New developments consist of 94.0% detached dwellings and 6.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes. The location has approximately 132 people per dwelling approval, further indicating a low-density market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Terranora - North Tumbulgum is expected to grow by 336 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Terranora - North Tumbulgum has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 12 projects likely to impact the area. Notable ones include Serramar Estate (formerly Sherpa Terranora Estate), Currumbin Eco-Parkland, Terranora Village Estate, and Terranora Masterplanned Community. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market strength in Terranora - North Tumbulgum positions it well ahead of most Australian regions

Terranora - North Tumbulgum has a skilled workforce with an unemployment rate of 1.5% as of September 2025. The area had 1,743 residents in work while the unemployment rate was 2.3% lower than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation was 64.0%, slightly higher than Rest of NSW's 61.5%.

According to Census responses, 18.1% of residents worked from home. Leading employment industries were health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction had a notably high concentration with employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average. Agriculture, forestry & fishing had limited presence with only 1.0% employment compared to 5.3% regionally.

The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data comparison of working population vs resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, labour force decreased by 2.6% alongside a 3.1% employment decline, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment fall by 0.5%, labour force contract by 0.1%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 projected national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Terranora - North Tumbulgum's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that Terranora - North Tumbulgum SA2 has a median income of $49,248 and an average income of $60,736. This is lower than the national averages of $52,390 (median) and $65,215 (average) for Rest of NSW. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $53,611 (median) and $66,117 (average). Census data indicates that household income ranks at the 72nd percentile with a weekly income of $2,100, while personal income is at the 50th percentile. Distribution data shows that 33.4% of residents earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly. Housing accounts for 14.0% of income, with strong earnings placing residents in the 75th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Terranora - North Tumbulgum is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Terranora - North Tumbulgum, as per the latest Census, consisted of 99.1% houses and 1.0% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. In contrast, Non-Metro NSW had 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. The home ownership rate in Terranora - North Tumbulgum was higher at 41.9%, with mortgaged properties at 47.4% and rented ones at 10.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,167, exceeding Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure stood at $538 compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Terranora - North Tumbulgum's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Terranora - North Tumbulgum features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 85.3% of all households, including 42.5% couples with children, 32.5% couples without children, and 9.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 14.7%, with lone person households at 12.4% and group households making up 2.0%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Terranora - North Tumbulgum exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

In Terranora - North Tumbulgum trail region, 24.8% of residents aged 15 and above hold university degrees, compared to NSW's 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 18.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prominent with 40.5% of residents aged 15 and above holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.7%) and certificates (28.8%). Educational participation is high at 31.3%, with 12.1% in primary education, 9.1% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.1% in primary education, 9.1% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 49 active public transport stops operating in Terranora - North Tumbulgum. These stops serve a mix of bus routes totaling 44 individual services, providing 335 weekly passenger trips combined. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 216 meters from the nearest stop. As predominantly residential, most commutes are outward-bound, with car being the primary mode at 97%. Average vehicle ownership per dwelling stands at 2.2, exceeding regional averages. According to the 2021 Census, 18.1% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 47 trips daily across all routes, equating to roughly 6 weekly trips per stop.

Terranora - North Tumbulgum's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Terranora - North Tumbulgum. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were low among the general population, nearing the nation's average for older, at-risk cohorts. Private health cover was found to be relatively low, with approximately 49% of the total population (~1,671 people) having it, compared to 51.9% across Rest of NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions were arthritis (8.7%) and asthma (7.2%), while 70.0% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Rest of NSW. Working-age residents showed low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 21.1% of residents aged 65 and over (716 people), lower than the 23.0% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors were above average but ranked lower nationally than the broader population.

Terranora - North Tumbulgum is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Terranora-North Tumbulgum, as per the 2016 Census, showed lower cultural diversity with 86.0% of its population born in Australia, 92.4% being citizens, and 96.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 53.3%. Judaism, though small at 0.2%, was slightly higher than the Rest of NSW's 0.1%.

The top three ancestral groups were English (32.5%), Australian (29.1%), and Irish (10.1%). Notably, Hungarian (0.4% vs regional 0.2%), French (0.7% vs 0.4%), and New Zealand (0.9% vs 0.4%) groups were overrepresented compared to the broader region.

Terranora - North Tumbulgum's median age exceeds the national pattern

Terranora - North Tumbulgum has a median age of 43, matching the Rest of NSW figure and exceeding the national average of 38. The area's age profile indicates that those aged 15-24 are notably prominent at 14.7%, while the 25-34 group is relatively smaller at 6.7% compared to the Rest of NSW figure. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the proportion of residents aged 15 to 24 has increased from 12.0% to 14.7%, while those aged 75 to 84 have risen from 4.9% to 7.5%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group has decreased from 15.9% to 14.3%, and the 25-34 cohort has fallen from 8.0% to 6.7%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Terranora - North Tumbulgum's age structure. Notably, the 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 40%, reaching 359 people from its current total of 256. Conversely, numbers in the 5-14 age range are projected to decrease by 75.