Terranora - North Tumbulgum

An assessment of population growth drivers in Terranora - North Tumbulgum reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Terranora - North Tumbulgum's population is around 3,455 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,324 people. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 3,455 from the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 77 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 119 persons per square kilometer. Terranora - North Tumbulgum's growth rate of 3.9% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region's growth rate of 3.7%. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 51.9% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, Terranora - North Tumbulgum is expected to expand by 334 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 9.7% in total over the 16-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Terranora - North Tumbulgum according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Terranora - North Tumbulgum has seen approximately 16 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, from FY2021 to FY2025. A total of 84 homes were approved during this period, with an additional 17 approved in FY2026 as of current data. The average population growth associated with these approvals is 0.3 people per year.

This indicates that new supply has kept pace with or exceeded demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings in the area is $595,000, suggesting a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY2026, commercial approvals totaled $9.9 million, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Terranora - North Tumbulgum has seen 63.0% more new home approvals per capita between FY2021 and FY2025.

This should provide buyers with ample choice in the area. The composition of new developments consists of 94.0% detached dwellings and 6.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character focused on family homes. As of the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Terranora - North Tumbulgum is expected to grow by approximately 334 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Terranora - North Tumbulgum has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified twelve projects anticipated to impact the region. Notable initiatives include Serramar Estate (formerly Sherpa Terranora Estate), Currumbin Eco-Parkland, Terranora Village Estate, and Terranora Masterplanned Community. The following list specifies those expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The exceptional employment performance in Terranora - North Tumbulgum places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Terranora - North Tumbulgum had an unemployment rate of 1.5% as of December 2025. It had 1,769 residents in work at this time, with a participation rate of 64.1%. This was below Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%, but the participation rate was similar to the regional average (60.5%).

According to Census responses, 18.1% of residents worked from home. The leading employment industries were health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction had particularly high representation, with employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average. However, agriculture, forestry & fishing had limited presence, with only 1.0% employment compared to the regional average of 5.3%.

Analysis of SALM and ABS data for the 12-month period showed a decrease in labour force by 0.4%, alongside an employment decline of 0.8%, resulting in an unemployment rate increase of 0.4 percentage points. This compares to Regional NSW, where employment fell by 1.2%, labour force contracted by 0.8%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Terranora - North Tumbulgum's employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation of industry-specific projections against the local employment mix.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates that income in Terranora - North Tumbulgum SA2 is lower than the national average. The median income is $49,248 and the average income stands at $60,736. In comparison, Regional NSW's median income is $52,390 with an average of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 would be approximately $54,330 (median) and $67,004 (average). Census data shows household income ranks at the 72nd percentile ($2,100 weekly), while personal income is at the 50th percentile. Income distribution reveals that the largest segment comprises 33.4% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (1,153 residents). This pattern is similar to the region where 29.9% fall within this range. Housing accounts for 14.0% of income. The area's strong earnings place residents within the 75th percentile for disposable income and its SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Terranora - North Tumbulgum is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Terranora - North Tumbulgum, as per the latest Census, 99.1% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 1.0% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This compares to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Terranora - North Tumbulgum stood at 41.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 47.4% and rented ones at 10.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, exceeding Regional NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in the area was $538, higher than Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Terranora - North Tumbulgum's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,167 compared to Australia's average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Terranora - North Tumbulgum features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 85.3% of all households, including 42.5% couples with children, 32.5% couples without children, and 9.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 14.7%, with lone person households at 12.4% and group households comprising 2.0%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Terranora - North Tumbulgum exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

In Terranora - North Tumbulgum trail region, 24.8% of residents aged 15 and above hold university degrees, compared to the state benchmark of 32.2%. This gap indicates potential for educational development. Bachelor degrees are most common at 18.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 40.5% of residents aged 15 and above holding them – advanced diplomas comprise 11.7% and certificates make up 28.8%.

Educational participation is high, with 31.3% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.1% in primary education, 9.1% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Terranora - North Tumbulgum shows that there are currently 49 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totalling 44 individual routes. Together, these routes provide a total of 335 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to transport is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 216 meters from their nearest transport stop. As this is primarily a residential area, most commuting patterns are outward-bound, with the car remaining the dominant mode of transportation at 97%. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling in the area is 2.2, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census data, some 18.1% of residents work from home, a figure that may reflect the conditions related to COVID-19. On average, service frequency across all routes amounts to approximately 47 trips per day, equating to roughly six weekly trips per individual stop.

Terranora - North Tumbulgum's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Terranora - North Tumbulgum. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were assessed by AreaSearch and found to be low among the general population. Common health conditions had a prevalence near the nation's average across older, at-risk cohorts.

The rate of private health cover was approximately 49% of the total population (~1699 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and a national average of 55.7%. Arthritis and asthma were the most common medical conditions, impacting 8.7% and 7.2% of residents respectively. 70.0% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. Working-age residents had low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 22.2% of residents aged 65 and over (767 people), lower than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors were above average but ranked lower nationally than the broader population.

Terranora - North Tumbulgum is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Terranora-North Tumbulgum showed lower-than-average cultural diversity, with 86.0% of its population born in Australia, 92.4% being citizens, and 96.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity dominated as the main religion, accounting for 53.3% of people in Terranora-North Tumbulgum. Judaism was overrepresented at 0.2%, compared to Regional NSW's 0.1%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (32.5%), Australian (29.1%), and Irish (10.1%). Notably, Hungarian (0.4%) and French (0.7%) ethnicities were more prevalent than regionally (both at 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively), as was New Zealand (0.9% vs regional 0.4%).

Terranora - North Tumbulgum's median age exceeds the national pattern

Terranora - North Tumbulgum has a median age of 43, matching Regional NSW's figure and exceeding Australia's national average of 38 years. The area's age profile shows that residents aged 15-24 make up 14.2%, while those aged 25-34 constitute only 6.2%. Comparing the 2021 Census data with previous figures, the percentage of people aged 75 to 84 has increased from 4.9% to 7.8%, and the 15 to 24 age group has risen from 12.0% to 14.2%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age group has decreased from 8.0% to 6.2%, and the 5 to 14 age group has fallen from 15.9% to 14.1%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant changes in Terranora - North Tumbulgum's age structure, with the 75 to 84 age group expected to grow by 37%, reaching 368 people from its current total of 268. Conversely, the number of residents aged 5 to 14 is projected to decrease by 58%.