Terranora - North Tumbulgum
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Terranora - North Tumbulgum reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Terranora - North Tumbulgum's population is around 3,403 as of Aug 2025. From the 2021 Census, this reflects an increase of 79 people, a growth rate of 2.4%. The ABS estimated resident population in June 2024 was 3,394, with an additional 77 validated new addresses since the Census date contributing to this growth. This results in a density ratio of 117 persons per square kilometer. Terranora - North Tumbulgum's growth rate of 2.4% since the census is within 0.8 percentage points of its SA4 region (3.2%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration accounted for approximately 59.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including natural growth and interstate migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for areas not covered by this data. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest population numbers, the area is expected to expand by 340 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 9.7% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Terranora - North Tumbulgum according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Terranora - North Tumbulgum has seen approximately 11 new homes approved annually. Development approval data from the ABS shows 56 homes were approved over the past five financial years, from FY20 to FY25, with 7 approved in FY26 so far. On average, 0.3 people per year moved to the area for each dwelling built during these years. New construction has been matching or outpacing demand, offering buyers more options and potentially enabling population growth beyond current expectations.

The average expected construction cost of new properties is $723,000, indicating that developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In FY26, commercial approvals totalled $9.9 million, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to the rest of NSW, Terranora - North Tumbulgum has seen 58.0% more new home approvals per person. This should provide buyers with ample choice.

New development consists predominantly of detached dwellings (94.0%) and a smaller proportion of attached dwellings (6.0%), maintaining the area's traditional low-density character focused on family homes. The location has approximately 132 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low-density market. Looking ahead, Terranora - North Tumbulgum is projected to grow by 331 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Terranora - North Tumbulgum has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 35thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 13 projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include Serramar Estate (formerly Sherpa Terranora Estate), Terranora Village Estate, Terranora Masterplanned Community, and Currumbin Eco-Parkland. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The labour market strength in Terranora - North Tumbulgum positions it well ahead of most Australian regions

Terranora - North Tumbulgum had an unemployment rate of 1.3% as of June 2025. It has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented.

The area had 1,732 residents in work at that time. Its unemployment rate was 2.3 percentage points below the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%, and its workforce participation rate was 64.5%, compared to the Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Leading employment industries among residents were health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction had particularly notable concentration with employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing had limited presence with 1.0% employment compared to 5.3% regionally. The area appeared to offer limited employment opportunities locally as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. In the 12-month period ending June 2025, labour force decreased by 4.8% and employment declined by 5.0%, causing unemployment rate to rise by 0.2 percentage points. This compared to Rest of NSW where employment fell by 0.1%, labour force expanded by 0.3%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to Sep-25 showed NSW employment contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.3%. This compared favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.5%, but lagged behind national employment growth of 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggested national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with significant variations between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Terranora - North Tumbulgum's employment mix indicated local growth of approximately 6.6%% over five years and 13.5% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ended June 30, 2022 indicates that income in Terranora - North Tumbulgum is lower than the national average. The median income was $45,245 while the average income stood at $56,617. In comparison, Rest of NSW had a median income of $49,459 and an average income of $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% from July 1, 2022 to March 31, 2025, current estimates suggest the median income would be approximately $50,041 and the average income around $62,618 by March 2025. Census data shows household income ranks at the 72nd percentile with a weekly income of $2,100, while personal income is at the 50th percentile. Income distribution reveals that the largest segment consists of 33.4% earning between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly (1,136 residents), reflecting regional patterns where 29.9% fall within this range. Housing expenses account for 14.0% of income. The area's strong earnings place residents within the 75th percentile for disposable income, and its SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Terranora - North Tumbulgum is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Terranora - North Tumbulgum dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, comprised 99.1% houses and 1.0% other dwellings. Non-Metro NSW had 66.3% houses and 33.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Terranora - North Tumbulgum was 41.9%, similar to Non-Metro NSW's figure, with mortgaged dwellings at 47.4% and rented ones at 10.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,167, higher than Non-Metro NSW's $1,872. Median weekly rent was $538, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $400. Nationally, Terranora - North Tumbulgum's median mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,167 versus the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Terranora - North Tumbulgum features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 85.3% of all households, including 42.5% couples with children, 32.5% couples without children, and 9.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 14.7%, composed of 12.4% lone person households and 2.0% group households. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Terranora - North Tumbulgum exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

In Terranora - North Tumbulgum, as of a certain period, 24.8% of residents aged 15+ had university degrees, compared to the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees were most common at 18.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials were also prevalent, with 40.5% of residents holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas made up 11.7% and certificates accounted for 28.8%. Educational participation was high, with 31.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This included 12.1% in primary, 9.1% in secondary, and 3.8% in tertiary education. The area had educational provision including Terranora Public School and Lindisfarne Anglican Grammar School, serving a total of 2,252 students. It demonstrated above-average socio-educational conditions with an ICSEA score of 1073. The educational mix included one primary school and one K-12 school. As an education hub, it had 66.2 school places per 100 residents, significantly higher than the regional average of 14.3, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Terranora - North Tumbulgum has 45 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 44 different routes that combined offer 335 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is considered good, with residents being an average of 216 meters away from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 47 trips per day across all routes, which amounts to about 7 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Terranora - North Tumbulgum is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Terranora-North Tumbulgum shows better-than-average health results, with low prevalence of common conditions across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover stands at approximately 48% (about 1,633 people), lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 8.7%) and asthma (7.2%). A total of 70.0% report no medical ailments, higher than Rest of NSW's 64.2%. Around 21.1%, or 717 people, are aged 65 and over, lower than the Rest of NSW average of 26.1%. Health outcomes among seniors align with those of the general population.

Terranora - North Tumbulgum is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Terranora-North Tumbulgum, surveyed in 2016, had below average cultural diversity with 86.0% of its population born in Australia. 92.4% were citizens, and 96.1% spoke English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion at 53.3%.

Judaism showed slight overrepresentation at 0.2%, compared to Rest of NSW's 0.2%. Top ancestry groups were English (32.5%), Australian (29.1%), and Irish (10.1%). Hungarian, French, and New Zealand ethnicities were notably higher than regional averages: 0.4% vs 0.2%, 0.7% vs 0.5%, and 0.9% vs 0.7% respectively.

Terranora - North Tumbulgum hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age of Terranora - North Tumbulgum is 43, which matches the figure for Rest of NSW and exceeds the national average of 38. The area's age profile shows a prominent percentage (14.7%) of individuals aged 15 to 24, while those aged 25 to 34 make up a smaller proportion (6.7%) compared to Rest of NSW. Between the censuses conducted on 9 August 2021 and 10 August 2021, the percentage of people aged 15 to 24 increased from 12.0% to 14.7%, while those aged 75 to 84 rose from 4.9% to 7.5%. Conversely, the percentage of individuals aged 5 to 14 decreased from 15.9% to 14.3%, and the proportion of those aged 25 to 34 dropped from 8.0% to 6.7%. Looking forward to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant changes in Terranora - North Tumbulgum's age structure, with the number of individuals aged 75 to 84 expected to grow by 40%, reaching 359 from 256. Conversely, the population aged 5 to 14 is projected to decrease by 76 people.