Thebarton

An assessment of population growth drivers in Thebarton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of the Thebarton statistical area (Lv2) was estimated at 1,750 as of November 2025, based on analysis of ABS population updates and new addresses validated by AreaSearch. This figure reflects an increase of 308 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,442 in Thebarton (SA2). The change is inferred from an estimated resident population of 1,720 as of June 2024, along with 13 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1,458 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The growth rate of 21.4% since the 2021 census exceeded both the state's growth rate of 8.7% and the metropolitan area's growth rate, making Thebarton a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 89.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, the SA State Government's Regional/LGA projections by age category are adopted after adjustments employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. According to population projections, an above median population growth is expected for Australian statistical areas, with Thebarton projected to increase by 265 persons to reach 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 3.4% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Thebarton recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Thebarton has recorded approximately 11 residential properties granted approval annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 57 homes were approved, with an additional 12 approved so far in FY-26. On average, about 1.7 people have moved to the area for each dwelling built over these five financial years.

This suggests a balance between supply and demand, maintaining stable market dynamics. The average construction value of new properties is $412,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment. In FY-26, there have been $44.7 million in commercial approvals, reflecting robust local business investment.

Compared to Greater Adelaide, Thebarton shows moderately higher construction activity, with 17.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years. This preserves reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand. New building activity comprises 57.0% detached houses and 43.0% medium and high-density housing, offering a mix of townhouses and apartments across different price points. The location has approximately 145 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Thebarton is expected to grow by 60 residents through to 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Thebarton has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 28thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified six projects likely to impact the region. Notable projects include Southwark Grounds (Thebarton Technology Hub), Southwark Grounds, Adelaide Crows Thebarton Oval Facility, and New Women's and Children's Hospital. Below is a list of those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Thebarton significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Thebarton has an educated workforce with key sectors such as essential services well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.9% in the past year, with estimated employment growth of 4.5%.

As of September 2025953 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.1% lower than Greater Adelaide's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation in Thebarton is higher at 67.5%, compared to Greater Adelaide's 61.7%. Major industries of employment among residents include health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical services. Notably, arts & recreation has high concentration with employment levels at 2.6 times the regional average.

Conversely, construction is under-represented at 5.8% compared to Greater Adelaide's 8.7%. The area functions as an employment hub with 2.6 workers per resident, hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from nearby areas. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 4.5%, labour force grew by 4.1%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Adelaide saw employment grow by 3.0% with a 0.1 percentage point decrease in unemployment. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows SA employment grew by 1.19% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.0%, outperforming the national average of 0.14%. National employment forecasts suggest growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Thebarton's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.3% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Thebarton has a median taxpayer income of $56,371 and an average income of $67,244 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is in line with national averages, contrasting with Greater Adelaide's median income of $54,808 and average income of $66,852. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.8% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes would be approximately $61,332 (median) and $73,161 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, personal income ranks at the 55th percentile ($831 weekly), while household income sits at the 31st percentile. Distribution data shows that 28.3% of the community earns between $1,500 and $2,999 (495 individuals). Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 28th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Thebarton displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Thebarton's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 56.4% houses and 43.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Adelaide metro had 63.9% houses and 36.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Thebarton was at 25.5%, with the rest being mortgaged (25.3%) or rented (49.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,627, below Adelaide metro's average of $1,745. The median weekly rent figure was $315, slightly higher than Adelaide metro's $310. Nationally, Thebarton's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,627 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were also lower at $315 versus the national figure of $375.

Thebarton features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 49.4% of all households, including 17.8% couples with children, 19.1% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 50.6%, with lone person households at 39.3% and group households comprising 10.5%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Greater Adelaide average of 2.3.

Thebarton demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Educational attainment in Thebarton is notably high. Among residents aged 15 and above, 39.7% have university qualifications, compared to 25.7% in South Australia (SA) and 28.9% in the Greater Adelaide area. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 26.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 9.5% and graduate diplomas at 3.6%. Vocational credentials are also common, with 28.0% of residents holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas account for 11.3% and certificates for 16.7%.

Educational participation is high, with 27.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.8% in tertiary education, 7.4% in primary education, and 5.0% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Thebarton has 23 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 14 different routes that together facilitate 1,591 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as excellent, with residents typically residing just 169 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 227 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 69 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Thebarton are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Thebarton's health indicators show below-average outcomes, with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 54% of the total population (~937 people), slightly leading the average SA2 area. Mental health issues impact 10.4% of residents, while asthma affects 8.4%. Conversely, 68.1% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.9% across Greater Adelaide. The area has 16.6% of residents aged 65 and over (290 people), broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Thebarton was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Thebarton's population showed higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 27.5% born overseas and 27.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Thebarton, comprising 36.1%. Buddhism had a slightly higher representation in Thebarton at 2.4%, compared to Greater Adelaide's 2.1%.

Regarding ancestry, the top three groups were English (22.6%), Australian (20.7%), and Greek (10.1%). Notable differences existed for Polish (1.7% vs regional 0.9%) and German (6.6% vs 4.6%) populations.

Thebarton's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

Thebarton has a median age of 38, nearly matching Greater Adelaide's figure of 39 and Australia's median age of 38. Compared to Greater Adelaide's average, Thebarton has an over-representation of the 25-34 cohort (20.7% locally) and under-representation of the 5-14 year-olds (8.1%). This concentration in the 25-34 age group is notably higher than the national average of 14.5%. Between 2021 and present, Thebarton's 25 to 34 age group has increased from 19.6% to 20.7%, while the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 13.8% to 12.3% and the 5 to 14 age group has dropped from 9.3% to 8.1%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Thebarton's age profile will change significantly. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to expand by 31 people (44%), from 71 to 103. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 87% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 and 25 to 34 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.