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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
Sales Activity
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Population
An assessment of population growth drivers in Mount Keira reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends
Mount Keira's population is estimated at around 1,619 as of Feb 2026. This reflects a decrease from the 2021 Census figure of 1,691 people. The current population is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 1,613 residents following their examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, along with an additional validated new address since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 232 persons per square kilometer. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 89.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.
AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, significant population increase is forecast for the top quartile of locations outside capital cities, with Mount Keira expected to expand by 473 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 29.6% over the 17 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
Development
Residential development activity is lower than average in Mount Keira according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets
Mount Keira has seen minimal residential development activity with 2 dwelling approvals annually over the past five years, totaling 13 approvals. This low level of development reflects the rural nature of the area, where housing needs are typically specific to local residents rather than broad market demand. The small sample size means individual projects can significantly influence annual growth and relative statistics.
New developments consist of 50% standalone homes and 50% medium to high-density housing, offering more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift from the current 92% houses reflects reduced development site availability and changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The area has an estimated population of 810 people per dwelling approval, indicating its quiet, low activity development environment. Mount Keira is projected to grow by 480 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate.
If current construction levels continue, housing supply may lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Infrastructure
Mount Keira has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally
Area infrastructure changes significantly impact local performance. AreaSearch identified three projects likely affecting the area: 2-8 Highway Avenue Multi-Dwelling Housing Development, Wollongong to Coniston Rail Infrastructure Upgrade, Wollongong Private Hospital expansion, and Illawarra Sports and Entertainment Precinct. Relevant details are listed below.
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INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Illawarra Offshore Wind Zone
The Illawarra Offshore Wind Zone is a 1,022 square kilometre declared area in the Pacific Ocean located at least 20 km offshore between Wombarra and Kiama. Declared on June 15, 2024, the zone has a potential generation capacity of 2.9 GW, sufficient to power 1.8 million homes. As of January 2026, the project is in a transitional phase; the sole feasibility licence applicant, BlueFloat Energy, formally withdrew in early 2026 due to global supply chain and commercial pressures. While no feasibility licences are currently active for generation, the zone remains officially declared. The Federal Government has opened applications for Research and Demonstration (R&D) licences to test emerging technologies like floating foundations and wave energy within the zone.
Illawarra Offshore Wind Zone
The Illawarra Offshore Wind Zone is a Commonwealth-declared area covering 1,022 square kilometres in the Pacific Ocean, located 20km to 45km off the NSW coast between Wombarra and Kiama. Declared on 15 June 2024, the zone has a potential generation capacity of 2.9 GW, enough to power approximately 1.8 million homes. Following a competitive application process in late 2024, Corio Generation Australia was awarded the first feasibility licence in December 2025. This allows for seven years of detailed environmental assessments, geotechnical surveys, and community consultation to determine the technical and commercial viability of a large-scale floating offshore wind farm.
Wollongong to Coniston Rail Infrastructure Upgrade
Part of the Rail Service Improvement Program (formerly More Trains, More Services), this project involves upgrading the rail corridor between Wollongong and Coniston. Key works include replacing electrical cables and overhead wiring at the Coniston substation, installing new signalling equipment, and completing civil and structural activities to support more frequent services on the South Coast Line. The project also integrates with the Safe Accessible Transport Program for station-specific accessibility improvements.
Maldon to Dombarton Freight Rail Line
A proposed 35 km single-track freight rail link designed to connect the Main South Line at Maldon with the Moss Vale to Unanderra line at Dombarton. The project aims to improve freight access to Port Kembla and bypass the congested Sydney network. Revitalized advocacy under the SWIRL (South West Illawarra Rail Link) banner proposes upgrading the corridor to a dual-track electrified line for both freight and passengers, connecting Port Kembla to Western Sydney International Airport. While 25 km of earthworks were completed in the 1980s, the project is currently in an investigative stage with no formal construction funding in recent budgets.
Rail Service Improvement Program (Mortdale-Kiama)
The Rail Service Improvement Program (formerly More Trains, More Services) is a multi-billion-dollar NSW Government initiative to modernize the rail network for the Mariyung fleet. The Mortdale to Kiama package involves infrastructure upgrades including the Mortdale Maintenance Centre (active maintenance and shunting works in February 2026), platform extensions at Kiama (completed), and ongoing signaling, power supply, and station improvements at Thirroul and Shellharbour Junction to enable increased service frequency on the T4 Illawarra and South Coast lines.
More Trains More Services Stage Two - Mortdale to Kiama Capital Works
Package of rail upgrades along the T4 Illawarra and South Coast lines between Mortdale and Kiama to support more frequent services and new trains. Works include platform extensions (e.g. Kiama), new and expanded stabling yards (e.g. Waterfall, Wollongong, Kiama), track and turnout changes, power and overhead wiring upgrades, signalling, and Mortdale Maintenance Centre upgrades.
Balgownie Mountain Bike Track Network
The Balgownie Mountain Bike Track Network is part of the Illawarra Escarpment Mountain Bike Project, proposing a sustainable 25 km mountain bike trail network including new tracks, upgrades to existing unsanctioned tracks, and access trails. It aims to provide recreational opportunities for various skill levels while minimizing environmental impacts and rehabilitating unauthorized areas. As of September 2024, the network alignment has been adjusted following consultations, and the plan is expected to be finalized in the coming months.
Russell Vale Underground Expansion Project
Revised underground expansion of Russell Vale Colliery using bord and pillar mining methods to extract up to 3.7 million tonnes of coal over a five-year period (MP09_0013). Approved by the NSW Independent Planning Commission in December 2020. The project has undergone extensive environmental assessment and was subject to public debate due to its location within the Greater Sydney Water Catchment. Operations were subsequently halted in January 2024 under a NSW Resources Regulator prohibition notice following multiple underground ignition events, and Wollongong Resources announced closure of the Russell Vale Colliery in February 2024. Any future activity would require compliance with regulator directions and updated approvals.
Employment
The labour market in Mount Keira shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions
Mount Keira's workforce is well-educated with strong representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 2.4% as of September 2025. This rate is 1.5% lower than the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%.
Workforce participation in Mount Keira was 69.3%, higher than the Rest of NSW average of 61.5%. According to Census responses, 34.2% of residents worked from home. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical services. Education & training has particularly notable concentration with employment levels at 1.7 times the regional average.
Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 0.5% compared to the regional average of 5.3%. The ratio of workers to residents is 0.8, indicating substantial local employment opportunities. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 0.1%, labour force increased by 0.1%, and unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points in Mount Keira. In comparison, Rest of NSW recorded an employment decline of 0.5%, labour force decline of 0.1%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mount Keira's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.3% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Income
The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis
The suburb of Mount Keira had a median taxpayer income of $66,843 and an average income of $88,992 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. These figures are significantly higher than those of Rest of NSW, which had a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated median and average incomes for Mount Keira as of September 2025 would be approximately $72,765 and $96,877 respectively. According to the 2021 Census figures, household incomes in Mount Keira rank at the 90th percentile with a weekly income of $2,476. In terms of earnings profile, 29.0% of the population (469 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, which aligns with regional levels where this cohort represents 29.9%. Mount Keira demonstrates considerable affluence with 40.2% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings in the area. After housing costs, residents retain 87.9% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Housing
Mount Keira is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership
Mount Keira's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 92.0% houses and 8.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mount Keira stood at 43.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 41.6% and rented ones at 15.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,468, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Mount Keira was $420, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Mount Keira's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,468 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Household Composition
Mount Keira features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size
Family households account for 80.3% of all households, including 41.8% couples with children, 27.0% couples without children, and 10.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 19.7%, with lone person households at 16.7% and group households comprising 3.1%. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
Local Schools & Education
Mount Keira demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics
Mount Keira's educational attainment is notably higher than broader benchmarks. Among residents aged 15+, 37.6% have university qualifications, compared to 21.3% in the Rest of NSW and 25.2% in the SA4 region. Bachelor degrees are most common at 22.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (11.3%) and graduate diplomas (3.6%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 32.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas account for 12.0% and certificates for 20.5%.
Educational participation is high, with 34.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.9% in primary education, 9.4% in secondary education, and 8.4% pursuing tertiary education.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Nearby Services & Amenities
Transport
Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility
Mount Keira has seven active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by ten different routes that combined offer 274 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically living 201 meters away from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards due to Mount Keira being primarily residential. Cars remain the dominant mode of transportation, used by 93% of residents. On average, there are 1.8 vehicles per dwelling, which is above the regional average.
According to the 2021 Census, 34.2% of residents work from home, a figure that might be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 39 trips per day, equating to approximately 39 weekly trips per stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
Health
Mount Keira's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions
Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Mount Keira. AreaSearch's assessment indicates low prevalence of common health conditions across both young and old age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 62% of the total population (1,003 people), compared to 51.9% across Rest of NSW and a national average of 55.7%.
The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and arthritis, impacting 7.5 and 6.7% of residents respectively, while 72.2% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.3% across Rest of NSW. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. Mount Keira has 16.1% of residents aged 65 and over (260 people), lower than the 23.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings even higher than the general population.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Cultural Diversity
In terms of cultural diversity, Mount Keira records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics
Mount Keira's population shows above-average cultural diversity, with 20.1% born overseas and 14.7% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Mount Keira, accounting for 54.6%, compared to 55.9% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (26.7%), English (24.8%) and Other (7.8%).
Notably, Serbian (1.4%) and Macedonian (2.5%) populations in Mount Keira exceed regional averages by significant margins, while Welsh representation is also higher at 0.8%.
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
Age
Mount Keira's population is slightly older than the national pattern
The median age in Mount Keira is 39 years, which is significantly lower than Rest of NSW's average of 43 but essentially aligned with Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Rest of NSW, Mount Keira has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (17.0%) but fewer residents aged 75-84 (4.8%). According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 25 to 34 grew from 9.5% to 12.0%, while the 15 to 24 age group increased from 14.7% to 17.0%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 age group declined from 12.6% to 10.9%, and the 5 to 14 age group dropped from 14.2% to 12.7%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Mount Keira's age structure. The 25 to 34 age group is projected to grow by 58%, adding 112 people and reaching a total of 307 from its previous size of 194. Meanwhile, the 55 to 64 age cohort is expected to grow by a modest 8%, with an increase of 13 people.