Mount Keira

An assessment of population growth drivers in Mount Keira reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of the Mount Keira statistical area (Lv2) is estimated at around 1,616 as of November 2025. This reflects a decrease from the 2021 Census figure of 1,691 people, representing a drop of 75 individuals or approximately 4.4%. The current population estimate is inferred from AreaSearch's validation of resident population data, which was 1,613 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional validated new address since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 232 persons per square kilometer for the Mount Keira (SA2). Population growth in the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 89.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where applicable, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. For the years 2032 to 2041, growth rates by age group are applied to all areas based on these aggregations. Looking ahead, significant population increases are forecast for the top quartile of locations outside capital cities, including the Mount Keira (SA2), which is expected to expand by 469 persons to reach a total of 2,185 individuals by 2041, reflecting an increase of approximately 29.4% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Mount Keira according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Mount Keira has had minimal residential development activity with 2 dwelling approvals annually on average over the past five years (13 approvals total). This low level of development reflects its rural nature, where housing needs are typically specific to local demands rather than broad market demand. The small sample size means individual projects can significantly influence annual growth and relativity statistics.

New developments consist of 50% standalone homes and 50% medium to high-density housing. This focus on higher-density living aims to create more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a significant shift from the current housing mix, which is 92% houses, due to reduced availability of development sites and changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The estimated population density in Mount Keira is 810 people per dwelling approval, indicating its quiet, low activity development environment.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Mount Keira is expected to grow by 475 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Mount Keira has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified three projects that may affect this region. Key projects are the 2-8 Highway Avenue Multi-Dwelling Housing Development, Wollongong to Coniston Rail Infrastructure Upgrade, Wollongong Private Hospital expansion, and Illawarra Sports and Entertainment Precinct. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Mount Keira shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Mount Keira's workforce is well-educated with strong representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 2.4% as of September 2025.

Employment stability has been maintained over the past year. In comparison to Rest of NSW, Mount Keira's unemployment rate is 1.5% lower at 3.8%, and workforce participation is higher at 66.2%. Key employment industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical services. Education & training has a particularly high representation, with an employment share of 1.7 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 0.5% compared to the regional average of 5.3%. The ratio of 0.8 workers per resident indicates substantial local employment opportunities. Between September 2024 and September 2025, the labour force remained stable while employment declined by 0.1%, keeping unemployment relatively stable at 2.4%. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw a 0.5% decrease in employment and a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% with an unemployment rate of 3.9%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project growth rates of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mount Keira's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.3% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

In AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Mount Keira suburb had a median income among taxpayers of $66,843 and an average of $88,992. These figures are among the highest in Australia. In comparison, Rest of NSW had a median income of $52,390 and an average of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Mount Keira's median income would be approximately $72,765 and the average around $96,877 as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household incomes in Mount Keira rank exceptionally high at the 90th percentile with weekly earnings of $2,476. The largest segment of earners comprises 29.0% earning between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, with a total of 468 residents falling into this category. This is consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region where 29.9% of residents also fall within this earnings bracket. Mount Keira demonstrates considerable affluence with 40.2% earning over $3,000 per week, which supports premium retail and service offerings in the area. After accounting for housing costs, residents retain 87.9% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Mount Keira is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with strong rates of outright home ownership

Mount Keira's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, was 92.0% houses and 8.0% other dwellings including semi-detached properties, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. Home ownership in Mount Keira stood at 43.4%, with 41.6% of dwellings mortgaged and 15.0% rented. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,468, while the median weekly rent was $420. Nationally, Mount Keira's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Mount Keira features high concentrations of family households, with a median household size of 2.9 people

Family households account for 80.3% of all households, including 41.8% couples with children, 27.0% couples without children, and 10.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 19.7%, with lone person households at 16.7% and group households making up 3.1%. The median household size is 2.9 people.

Mount Keira demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Mount Keira's educational attainment is notably high, with 37.6% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications, compared to 21.3% in the rest of NSW and 25.2% in the SA4 region. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 22.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (11.3%) and graduate diplomas (3.6%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 32.5% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas account for 12.0% and certificates for 20.5%. Educational participation is high, with 34.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.9% in primary education, 9.4% in secondary education, and 8.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Mount Keira has seven active public transport stops operating, offering a mix of bus services. These stops are served by ten different routes that collectively facilitate 274 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport in the area is rated as good, with residents typically residing 201 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, service frequency across all routes stands at 39 trips per day, equating to approximately 39 weekly trips per individual stop.

Mount Keira's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Mount Keira shows robust health performance across all age groups. Both young and elderly cohorts have low prevalence rates for common health conditions.

Private health cover is notably high at approximately 62% of Mount Keira's total population of 1,001 people, compared to the national average of 55.7%. Asthma and arthritis are the most prevalent medical conditions in the area, affecting 7.5% and 6.7% of residents respectively. A significant majority, 72.2%, report having no medical ailments, contrasting with the 0% reported across Rest of NSW. Mount Keira has 16.6% of its population aged 65 and over, comprising 268 individuals. The health outcomes for seniors in Mount Keira are particularly strong, outperforming even the general population's health metrics.

In terms of cultural diversity, Mount Keira records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mount Keira's population showed above-average cultural diversity, with 20.1% born overseas and 14.7% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Mount Keira, accounting for 54.6%. This figure contrasts with None% across Rest of NSW.

In terms of ancestry, Australians made up 26.7%, English 24.8%, and Other 7.8% of Mount Keira's population. Some ethnic groups were notably more prevalent in Mount Keira compared to regional averages: Serbian at 1.4% (vs None%), Macedonian at 2.5% (vs None%), and Welsh at 0.8% (vs None%).

Mount Keira's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Mount Keira is 39 years, which is significantly lower than Rest of NSW's average of 43 but essentially aligned with Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Rest of NSW, Mount Keira has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (16.9%) but fewer residents aged 75-84 (5.0%). According to the 2021 Census, the proportion of residents aged 15-24 increased from 14.7% to 16.9%, while those aged 25-34 rose from 9.5% to 11.4%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 55-64 decreased from 12.6% to 10.9%, and those aged 5-14 dropped from 14.2% to 13.0%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Mount Keira's age structure. Notably, the number of residents aged 25-34 is projected to grow by 65%, reaching 304 from 184. Meanwhile, the number of residents aged 55-64 is expected to grow modestly by 8% (14 people).