Keiraville

Keiraville lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Keiraville's population is estimated at around 4,142 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 141 people (3.5%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,001 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 4,130 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 8 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,663 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Keiraville has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.6%, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 89.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, a significant population increase in the top quartile of Australia's non-metropolitan areas is forecast, with Keiraville expected to increase by 1,206 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 31.7% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Keiraville recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis shows Keiraville had around 8 dwelling approvals per year, with 44 approved between FY21-FY25 and 5 so far in FY26. Each new dwelling brought approximately 6.4 new residents annually over the past five years. This significant demand outstripping supply typically drives price growth and heightened buyer competition.

The average construction value was $571,000, higher than regional levels, suggesting quality-focused development. Commercial approvals totaled $2.1 million in FY26, reflecting Keiraville's residential character. Compared to Rest of NSW, Keiraville had 63.0% fewer approvals per person, reinforcing demand and pricing for existing properties. This is also below national averages, indicating maturity and possible planning constraints. New developments comprised 55.0% detached houses and 45.0% medium-high density housing, offering options from family homes to affordable compact living.

With around 526 people per approval, Keiraville suggests a mature market. By 2041, AreaSearch estimates an increase of 1,312 residents. If current development rates persist, supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and price growth.

Keiraville has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects likely to affect the area. Notable ones are the Irvine Street Gwynneville Precinct Planning Proposal, 2-8 Highway Avenue Multi-Dwelling Housing Development, University of Wollongong Campus Master Plan, and 14 Cosgrove Avenue Multi-Dwelling Housing Development (Refused). The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Keiraville face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Keiraville has a highly educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 8.3% as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of June 2025, 2,207 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 4.7% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation in Keiraville was on par with Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Employment among residents was concentrated in education & training, health care & social assistance, and accommodation & food sectors. Notably, employment levels in education & training were at 1.8 times the regional average, while construction employed just 4.4% of local workers compared to Rest of NSW's 9.7%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census working population to local population counts. Over the 12 months to June 2025, labour force levels remained stable by 0.0%, but there was a 0.6% employment decline, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW experienced an employment decline of 0.1% and labour force growth of 0.3%, with an unemployment rate rise of 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Keiraville's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch aggregated latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2022. Keiraville had a median taxpayer income of $43,690 and an average income of $58,167. These figures were below the national averages of $49,459 and $62,998 respectively for Rest of NSW. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year ending June 2022, estimated median income as of September 2025 would be approximately $49,199, with average income projected at $65,502. According to the 2021 Census, individual incomes were at the 13th percentile ($610 weekly), while household incomes were at the 49th percentile. The predominant income cohort in Keiraville comprised 30.3% of locals (1,255 people) earning between $1,500 and $2,999 per week, similar to regional levels where 29.9% fell within this range. High housing costs consumed 15.9% of income. Despite this, disposable income remained at the 50th percentile, with Keiraville's SEIFA income ranking placing it in the 7th decile.

Keiraville displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Keiraville's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 63.2% houses and 36.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro NSW's 58.9% houses and 41.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Keiraville stood at 38.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 21.6% and rented dwellings at 39.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,200, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,189. The median weekly rent in Keiraville was $420, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $400. Nationally, Keiraville's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Keiraville features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 59.5% of all households, including 26.2% couples with children, 24.3% couples without children, and 7.8% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 40.5%, with lone person households at 27.7% and group households comprising 12.6%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which aligns with the average in the Rest of NSW.

The educational profile of Keiraville exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational attainment in Keiraville is notably high, with 39.7% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications as of the latest data point. This compares favorably to the broader benchmarks of 21.3% in Rest of NSW and 25.2% in the SA4 region. University qualifications include bachelor degrees (23.0%), postgraduate qualifications (13.7%), and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Vocational pathways account for 23.6%, comprising advanced diplomas (7.8%) and certificates (15.8%).

Educational participation is high, with 48.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including tertiary education (30.9%), primary education (7.0%), and secondary education (6.1%). Keiraville Public School and Aspect South Coast School serve the area collectively, with a total student population of 286 as of the given date. The ICSEA score for the area is 1102, indicating significant socio-educational advantages and academic achievement. The educational mix includes one primary school and one K-12 school. Local school capacity is limited, with 6.9 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 14.9, leading many families to travel to nearby areas for schooling. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Keiraville has 40 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 26 different routes that together facilitate 3,066 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from a resident's location to the nearest transport stop is 137 meters, indicating excellent accessibility.

On average, there are 438 trips per day across all routes, which amounts to approximately 76 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Keiraville is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Keiraville shows better-than-average health outcomes for both younger and older age groups, with low prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately half (50%) of Keiraville's total population (~2,069 people) has private health cover, compared to 56.6% in the rest of NSW and a national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues affect 10.4% of residents, while asthma impacts 7.5%, with 69.6% reporting no medical ailments, slightly higher than the 68.6% in the rest of NSW.

Keiraville has fewer seniors aged 65 and over at 13.1% (542 people), compared to 17.7% in the rest of NSW. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are above average, aligning with the general population's health profile.

Keiraville was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Keiraville's population showed higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 27.1% born overseas and 21.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Keiraville, accounting for 43.6%. Notably, Judaism comprised 0.2%, which was higher than the Rest of NSW's 0.1%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (24.2%), Australian (23.3%), and Other (10.4%). Some ethnic groups showed significant differences: Welsh at 0.9% compared to the regional average of 0.8%, Serbian at 1.0% versus 0.8%, and French at 0.8% against a regional average of 0.5%.

Keiraville hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Keiraville's median age is 25 years, which is lower than the Rest of NSW average of 43 and the Australian median of 38. Compared to Rest of NSW, Keiraville has a higher percentage of residents aged 15-24 (35.8%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (5.4%). This concentration of 15-24 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 12.5%. Between 2021 and present, the percentage of residents aged 25 to 34 has increased from 12.5% to 14.3%, while the percentages for ages 5 to 14 and 55 to 64 have decreased from 8.8% to 7.2% and 8.0% to 6.5%, respectively. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Keiraville's age profile, with the 25 to 34 age cohort expected to expand by 416 people (70%), growing from 592 to 1,009 residents.