Lightning Ridge

Lightning Ridge has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the Lightning Ridge statistical area's population is estimated at around 2026 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 80 people (4.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1946 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 2017, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional two validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 0.90 persons per square kilometer. The Lightning Ridge's 4.1% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (2.5%), along with the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth that contributed approximately 70.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, over this period, projections indicate a decline in overall population. The area's population is expected to decline by 514 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 85 and over age group, which is projected to increase by 22 people.

The level of residential development activity in Lightning Ridge is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Lightning Ridge has seen minimal development activity over the past five years, with an average of less than one approval per year, totaling four. This low level of development is typical in rural areas where housing demand is modest and construction activity is limited by local demand and infrastructure capacity. It's important to note that due to the small number of approvals, individual projects can significantly impact annual growth and relativity statistics.

Lightning Ridge has shown notably less construction activity than the rest of NSW and its development pattern is below national averages. New developments consist of 50% detached houses and 50% attached dwellings, reflecting a shift from the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 69% houses. This trend may indicate decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles requiring more diverse, affordable housing options. The estimated population per dwelling approval in Lightning Ridge is 2040 people, reflecting its quiet development environment. Given stable or declining population forecasts, Lightning Ridge may experience less housing pressure, creating favorable conditions for buyers.

Given stable or declining population forecasts, Lightning Ridge may experience less housing pressure, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Lightning Ridge has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

No factors influence a region's performance more than changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that could impact this area. Key projects include Queensland Southern Rez, Newell Highway Upgrade, NSW Renewable Energy Zones (REZ) Program, and Corridor Preservation For East Coast High Speed Rail. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Lightning Ridge face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Lightning Ridge has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, prominent essential services sectors, and an unemployment rate of 14.4% as per AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation. As of September 2025606 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 10.6% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation stands at 37.3%, significantly lower than Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key employment industries include accommodation & food, health care & social assistance, and education & training. The area specializes in accommodation & food, with an employment share 2.2 times the regional level. Conversely, manufacturing employs only 0.8% of local workers, compared to Rest of NSW's 5.8%.

The Census working population versus resident population count suggests limited local employment opportunities. Between September 2024 and September 2025, the labour force decreased by 5.7%, with employment down by 7.9%, leading to a 1.9 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. In comparison, Rest of NSW saw an employment decline of 0.5%, labour force decline of 0.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with a state unemployment rate of 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 indicate total employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Lightning Ridge's employment mix suggests local employment could increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.5% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only and does not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Lightning Ridge had a median income among taxpayers of $35,792 and an average income of $42,910 in the financial year 2023, according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. These figures are lower than those for Rest of NSW, which were $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. By September 2025, estimated median income would be approximately $38,963 and average income $46,712, based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023. The 2021 Census showed that incomes in Lightning Ridge fell between the 0th and 2nd percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. In Lightning Ridge, 37.4% (757 individuals) earned between $400 - $799 weekly, contrasting with metropolitan regions where the leading bracket was $1,500 - $2,999 at 29.9%. The concentration of 50.0% in sub-$800 weekly brackets indicated economic challenges faced by a significant portion of the community. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 87.7% income retention, total disposable income ranked at just the 3rd percentile nationally.

Lightning Ridge displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Lightning Ridge's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 69.0% houses and 31.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 90.0% houses and 10.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lightning Ridge was 51.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 14.3% and rented ones at 34.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $867, below Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,000 and the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent in Lightning Ridge was $200, lower than Non-Metro NSW's $180 and the national figure of $375.

Lightning Ridge features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households compose 51.7% of all households, including 14.7% couples with children, 23.1% couples without children, and 13.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for 48.3%, with lone person households at 43.8% and group households comprising 4.1%. The median household size is 2.0 people, smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

Lightning Ridge faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.7%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.1%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.9%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.7%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 44.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (11.0%) and certificates (33.2%).

Educational participation is high, with 34.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.5% in primary education, 10.8% in secondary education, and 2.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Lightning Ridge has 80 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 8 different routes, together offering 72 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is considered good, with residents on average being located 398 meters from the nearest stop.

The service frequency averages 10 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 0 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Lightning Ridge is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Lightning Ridge faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Approximately 44% (~891 people) have private health cover, compared to 49.5% across Rest of NSW and a national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (13.3%) and mental health issues (9.3%).

Conversely, 54.9% report no medical ailments, lower than the Rest of NSW's 65.9%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 30.2% (611 people), compared to Rest of NSW's 20.2%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are notably better than those of the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Lightning Ridge records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Lightning Ridge's cultural diversity aligns with its broader area, with 75.4% citizens, 80.8% born in Australia, and 88.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, at 50.4%, compared to 67.2% across Rest of NSW. Top three ancestry groups are Australian (24.2%), English (23.2%), and Australian Aboriginal (16.9%).

Notably, Serbian (2.0%) Hungarian (0.7%), and Croatian (1.4%) populations exceed regional averages.

Lightning Ridge ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Lightning Ridge's median age is 53, which is higher than the Rest of NSW figure of 43 and significantly exceeds the national norm of 38. Compared to Rest of NSW, Lightning Ridge has a higher concentration of residents aged 65-74 (16.4%), but fewer residents aged 15-24 (7.2%). This 65-74 concentration is well above the national figure of 9.4%. Between the 2016 and 2021 Censuses, the 0 to 4 age group grew from 4.6% to 5.5% of the population. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort declined from 18.2% to 16.3%, and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 11.4% to 10.3%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Lightning Ridge's age structure. The 85+ group is projected to grow by 46% (25 people), reaching 80 from 54. The aging population trend is clear, with those aged 65 and above comprising all of the projected growth. Conversely, both the 75-84 and 0-4 age groups are projected to decrease in numbers.