Bucasia

Population growth drivers in Bucasia are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates, the Bucasia statistical area's population is estimated at around 5199 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 284 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4915 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 5153 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional validated new address since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 476 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Bucasia has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1%. Population growth was primarily driven by natural growth contributing approximately 59% of overall gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023 based on 2021 data for areas not covered or post-2032. For state projections lacking age category splits, AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings from ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 based on 2022 data. Population projections indicate a significant increase nationally in the top quartile of regional areas, with Bucasia expected to grow by 1790 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 35.4% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Bucasia when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Bucasia has seen approximately 10 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 54 homes were approved, with a further 19 approved so far in FY-26. This results in an average of 7.1 people moving to the area per dwelling built over these years.

The supply of new dwellings significantly lags demand, which typically leads to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $437,000. This financial year has seen $823,000 in commercial approvals registered, suggesting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to the rest of Queensland, Bucasia shows approximately 58% of the construction activity per person.

Nationally, it places among the 43rd percentile of areas assessed, indicating more limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing dwellings. Building activity has accelerated in recent years but remains below the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. Recent building activity consists entirely of detached houses, maintaining Bucasia's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated count of 385 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. Looking ahead, Bucasia is expected to grow by 1,841 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Bucasia has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified six projects expected to influence the region. Notable initiatives include Royal Sands Mackay Estate, Mackay-Bucasia Road and Golf Links Road Intersection Upgrade, Bucasia 186 Homes and Childcare Centre, and Reed Street Extension (Norwood Parade/Reed Street Connection). The following list details those most relevant.

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Bucasia ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Bucasia has a balanced workforce across white and blue collar jobs, with manufacturing and industrial sectors prominent. The unemployment rate was 2.9% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 4.3%.

As of September 2025, 2,986 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.2% below Rest of Qld's 4.1%, and workforce participation at 68.0%, compared to Rest of Qld's 59.1%. Healthcare & social assistance, mining, and retail trade dominate employment. Mining is particularly specialized, with a share 3.9 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 0.7% compared to Rest of Qld's 4.5%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited, as indicated by Census data.

In the year to September 2025, employment levels increased by 4.3%, labour force by 4.5%, and unemployment rose by 0.2 percentage points. This compares to Rest of Qld where employment grew by 1.7%, labour force expanded by 2.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data from 25-Nov shows Queensland's employment contracted by 0.01% (losing 1,210 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.2%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia suggest a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Bucasia's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 5.8% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The suburb of Bucasia's income level is slightly above average nationally according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Bucasia is $58,215 and the average income stands at $70,199. These figures compare to those of Rest of Qld's which are $53,146 (median) and $66,593 (average) respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Bucasia would be approximately $63,984 (median) and $77,156 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census data, household, family and personal incomes in Bucasia cluster around the 66th percentile nationally. The data shows that 38.6% of Bucasia's population (2,006 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, mirroring the region where 31.7% occupy this bracket. After housing expenses, 85.3% of income remains for other expenses.

Bucasia is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Bucasia, as per the latest Census evaluation, 91.2% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 8.7% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This compares to Non-Metro Qld's figures of 85.1% houses and 14.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bucasia stood at 23.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 44.2% and rented ones at 32.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,666, lower than Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Bucasia was $380, higher than Non-Metro Qld's figure of $340. Nationally, Bucasia's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Bucasia features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 79.1% of all households, including 36.8% couples with children, 27.3% couples without children, and 14.3% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 20.9%, with lone person households at 18.7% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Rest of Qld average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Bucasia fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 14.6%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 10.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are common, with 46.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.4%) and certificates (38.2%). Educational participation is high at 35.6%, with 13.9% in primary education, 11.5% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 35.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.9% in primary education, 11.5% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Bucasia has 18 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. There is only one route serving these stops, which together offer 49 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport in Bucasia is rated as good, with residents on average located 272 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 7 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 2 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Bucasia is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Bucasia shows better-than-average health outcomes, with low prevalence of common conditions among its general population, closer to national averages for older and at-risk groups. Private health cover is high, at approximately 55% (around 2,860 people), compared to 58.1% in the rest of Queensland.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 8.1% and 8.1% of residents respectively. 71.5% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 69.7% in the rest of Queensland. As of June 20XX (date preserved as per rule 6), 11.8% of Bucasia's population is aged 65 and over (613 people), lower than the 16.2% in the rest of Queensland. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention despite being above average.

Bucasia is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Bucasia had below average cultural diversity, with 84.8% of its population being Australian citizens born in Australia who spoke English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 45.6%. There was no representation of Judaism in Bucasia, matching the regional percentage of 0.0%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (31.3%), Australian (27.3%), and Irish (8.2%). Notably, New Zealanders made up 1.0% compared to 0.7% regionally, Germans comprised 4.6% versus 4.7%, and Maori represented 0.8% against the regional 0.6%.

Bucasia's population is younger than the national pattern

The median age in Bucasia is 35 years, which is lower than Queensland's average of 41 and under the national average of 38. Compared to Queensland's average, Bucasia has a notably higher proportion of 25-34 year-olds (15.1%) but fewer 65-74 year-olds (7.6%). According to post-2021 Census data, the 25-34 age group grew from 13.7% to 15.1%, while the 75-84 cohort increased from 2.7% to 3.8%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group declined from 16.8% to 14.2%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Bucasia, with the 25-34 age group projected to grow by 56%, reaching 1,222 people from its current figure of 785.