Nairne
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Nairne are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Nairne's population was around 5,814 as of November 2025. This figure reflects an increase of 487 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,327. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 5,697 in June 2024 and an additional 78 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 233 persons per square kilometer. Nairne's growth of 9.1% since the 2021 census exceeded both the state average (7.1%) and metropolitan area, making it a regional growth leader. Natural growth contributed approximately 45.8% to overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including interstate migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, the SA State Government's Regional/LGA projections by age category are adopted, based on 2021 data and adjusted using weighted aggregation methods from LGA to SA2 levels. Future demographic trends project an above median population growth for Nairne, with an expected increase of 1,013 persons to reach a total of 6,827 by 2041, marking a gain of 15.4% over the seventeen-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Nairne among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Nairne has seen around 30 new homes approved each year over the past five financial years, totalling 154 homes. In FY26 so far, 14 approvals have been recorded. On average, 3.1 new residents per year have been added for every home built between FY21 and FY25. The supply of new homes is substantially lagging demand, which typically leads to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $296,000. This financial year has seen $4.5 million in commercial approvals, indicating limited focus on commercial development. Compared to Greater Adelaide, Nairne shows approximately half the construction activity per person but ranks among the 80th percentile nationally for building activity, with acceleration in recent years.

All recent development has been detached houses, maintaining the area's traditional low density character and appealing to those seeking family homes with space. The location has approximately 160 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. Future projections show Nairne adding 896 residents by 2041. Present construction rates appear balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Nairne has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 25thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified five projects expected to impact the region. Notable projects include Larkview Mount Barker, Springlake Communities, Amblemead Estate, and Onkaparinga Valley Road Intersection Upgrade. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Nairne has been broadly consistent with national averages

Nairne has a skilled workforce with an unemployment rate of 3.9% as of June 2025. This is 0.1% lower than Greater Adelaide's rate of 4.0%.

Employment growth in Nairne over the past year was estimated at 1.4%. As of June 2025, 3,280 residents are employed, with workforce participation at 71.2%, compared to Greater Adelaide's 61.7%. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

However, health care & social assistance is under-represented in Nairne, with only 15.2% of the workforce compared to 17.7% in Greater Adelaide. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 1.4%, labour force grew by 1.7%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Adelaide recorded employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.1%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May 2025) project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Nairne's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022, Nairne had a median income among taxpayers of $52,393. The average income stood at $60,499. This was below the national average of $67,185 and compared to levels of $52,592 and $64,886 across Greater Adelaide respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.83% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $59,115 (median) and $68,261 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes in Nairne cluster around the 56th percentile nationally. Looking at income distribution, the largest segment comprises 40.6% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (2,360 residents), aligning with regional levels where this cohort likewise represents 31.8%. After housing, 85.3% of income remains for other expenses and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Nairne is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Nairne's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 98.5% houses and 1.5% other dwellings. In comparison, Adelaide metro had 95.2% houses and 4.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Nairne stood at 25.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 54.1% and rented ones at 20.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,500, lower than Adelaide metro's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Nairne was $350, equal to Adelaide metro's figure. Nationally, Nairne's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Nairne features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households compose 77.4 percent of all households, including 36.3 percent couples with children, 27.4 percent couples without children, and 12.9 percent single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 22.6 percent, with lone person households at 20.7 percent and group households comprising 2.0 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the Greater Adelaide average.

Nairne performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 23.6%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 42.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 17.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are held by 40.8% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 11.8% and certificates at 29.0%. Educational participation is high, with 29.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 12.4% in primary, 6.9% in secondary, and 4.3% in tertiary education. Nairne School - Preschool and Primary serves the area, enrolling 407 students as of 2021. The school focuses on primary education, with ICSEA value of 1018, indicating typical Australian schooling conditions. Secondary options are available in nearby areas. School places per 100 residents stand at 7.0, below the regional average of 14.1, suggesting some students attend schools outside Nairne.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 18 operational public transport stops in Nairne, offering a variety of bus services. These stops are served by six distinct routes, collectively facilitating 230 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents on average situated 303 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 32 trips daily across all routes, equating to roughly 12 weekly trips per individual stop.

Nairne's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Nairne's health metrics closely align with national benchmarks, showing a typical range of common health conditions across both young and elderly residents. Approximately 50% (~2,907 people) have private health cover, lower than Greater Adelaide's 55.2%. Nationally, the average is 55.3%.

Mental health issues affect 10.2%, while asthma impacts 9.2% of Nairne residents. Around 68.8% claim to be free from medical ailments, similar to Greater Adelaide's 68.5%. The area has 14.0% (812 people) aged 65 and over, lower than Greater Adelaide's 19.9%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are above average, mirroring the general population's health profile.

Nairne is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Nairne's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 87.0% of its population born in Australia, 92.5% being citizens, and 96.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion in Nairne, comprising 34.7% of people. However, Judaism was notably overrepresented, making up 0.1% of Nairne's population compared to 0.1% across Greater Adelaide.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (32.6%), Australian (31.7%), and German (7.7%). There were also notable divergences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Dutch was overrepresented at 2.6% compared to 1.8% regionally, Hungarian at 0.4% vs 0.3%, and Welsh at 0.6% vs 0.7%.

Nairne's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Nairne is 36, which is slightly below Greater Adelaide's average of 39 and also slightly below the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Adelaide, Nairne has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (14.3%) but fewer residents aged 75-84 (4.3%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population aged 55 to 64 has increased from 11.7% to 13.1%, while the 75 to 84 age group has risen from 3.2% to 4.3%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 age group has decreased from 14.0% to 11.9%. By 2041, Nairne's population is projected to experience significant shifts in its age composition, with the 65 to 74 age group expected to grow by 41%, adding 211 people and reaching a total of 725 from the previous count of 513. The 0 to 4 age group is predicted to grow at a more modest rate of 4%, with an increase of just 15 residents.