Nairne

Population growth drivers in Nairne are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Nairne's population is around 5,923 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 596 people (11.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,327 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 5,697 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 99 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 238 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Nairne's 11.2% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the state (9.0%) and Greater Adelaide, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth, which contributed approximately 45.8% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers, including interstate and overseas migration, were positive factors.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, the SA State Government's Regional/LGA projections by age category, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data, are adopted with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Regarding demographic trends, an above-median population growth relative to national areas is projected, with the area expected to grow by 1,013 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 13.3% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Nairne among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Nairne has seen around 30 new homes approved each year, totalling 154 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 29 approvals have been recorded. At an average of 3.1 new residents per year for every home built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply is substantially lagging demand, which generally means heightened buyer competition, leading to pricing pressures, while new homes are being built at an average value of $296,000. There have also been $4.5 million in commercial approvals this financial year, indicating limited commercial development focus.

When measured against Greater Adelaide, Nairne shows approximately half the construction activity per person while it places among the 79th percentile of areas assessed nationally, though building activity has accelerated in recent years. Further, recent development has been entirely comprised of detached houses, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The location has approximately 160 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market.

Future projections show Nairne adding 787 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Present construction rates appear balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Nairne has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 27thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 5 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Larkview Mount Barker, Springlake Communities, Amblemead Estate, and the Onkaparinga Valley Road Intersection Upgrade, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Nairne demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Nairne possesses a skilled workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of only 3.7%, and 5.1% estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 3,364 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is in line with Greater Adelaide's rate of 3.8%, and workforce participation is well beyond standard (77.6% compared to Greater Adelaide's 67.2%). Based on Census responses, a low 12.9% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Conversely, health care & social assistance is under-represented, with only 15.2% of Nairne's workforce compared to 17.7% in Greater Adelaide. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 5.1% and the labour force increased by 5.4%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.2 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Adelaide recorded employment growth of 4.2%, labour force growth of 3.9%, with unemployment falling 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Nairne. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Nairne's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Nairne SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $54,374 with the average level standing at $62,529. This is below the national average and compares to levels of $54,808 and $66,852 across Greater Adelaide respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.8% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $59,159 (median) and $68,032 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes in Nairne cluster around the 55th percentile nationally. Looking at income distribution, the largest segment comprises 40.6% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (2,404 residents), aligning with regional levels where this cohort likewise represents 31.8%. After housing, 85.3% of income remains for other expenses and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Nairne is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure within Nairne, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 98.5% houses and 1.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Adelaide metro's 75.2% houses and 24.9% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Nairne was lagging that of Adelaide metro, at 25.0%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (54.1%) or rented (20.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was below the Adelaide metro average at $1,500, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $350, compared to Adelaide metro's $1,562 and $320. Nationally, Nairne's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are less than the national figure of $375.

Nairne features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 77.4% of all households, comprising 36.3% couples with children, 27.4% couples without children, and 12.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 22.6%, with lone person households at 20.7% and group households comprising 2.0% of the total. The median household size of 2.6 people is larger than the Greater Adelaide average of 2.5.

Nairne performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (23.6%) substantially below the SA4 region average of 42.2%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 17.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 40.8% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificates (29.0%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.4% in primary education, 6.9% in secondary education, and 4.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 18 active transport stops operating within Nairne, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 6 individual routes, collectively providing 230 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 303 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward, and the car remains the dominant mode at 92%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A relatively low 12.9% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 32 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 12 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Nairne are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Health indicators suggest below-average outcomes in Nairne, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~2,985 people). This compares to 52.7% across Greater Adelaide and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 10.2% and 9.2% of residents, respectively, while 68.8% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 67.9% across Greater Adelaide. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 14.7% of residents aged 65 and over (870 people), which is lower than the 19.3% in Greater Adelaide. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Nairne is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Nairne was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 87.0% of its population born in Australia, 92.5% being citizens, and 96.3% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Nairne is Christianity, which makes up 34.7% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Judaism, which comprises 0.1% of the population, compared to 0.1% across Greater Adelaide.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Nairne are English, comprising 32.6% of the population, Australian, comprising 31.7% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 22.8%, and German, comprising 7.7% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Dutch is notably overrepresented at 2.6% of Nairne (vs 1.2% regionally), Hungarian at 0.4% (vs 0.3%) and Welsh at 0.6% (vs 0.6%).

Nairne's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The 36-year median age in Nairne is modestly under Greater Adelaide's average of 39 and also modestly under the Australian median of 38. Relative to Greater Adelaide, Nairne has a higher concentration of 5 - 14 residents (14.3%) but fewer 75 - 84 year-olds (4.7%). Since the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 3.2% to 4.7% of the population, while the 55 to 64 cohort increased from 11.7% to 13.1%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 14.0% to 11.6%. By 2041, Nairne is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading the demographic shift, the 65 to 74 group will grow by 33% (181 people), reaching 725 from 543. The 0 to 4 group displays more modest growth at 5%, adding only 18 residents.