Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry

An assessment of population growth drivers in Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry's population is approximately 23,327 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 848 people, a 3.8% rise from the 2021 Census which reported a population of 22,479. The growth is inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 22,972 in June 2024 and an additional 203 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density of 61 persons per square kilometer. Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry's growth exceeded the SA3 area average of 3.2%, making it a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration was the primary driver of this population increase.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends suggest lower quartile growth, with the area expected to grow by 1,070 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a 2.9% increase over 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry has seen approximately 87 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25438 homes were approved, with a further 50 approved in FY26 as of now. On average, 1.1 new residents have arrived per new home over these years, indicating balanced supply and demand, leading to stable market conditions.

The average construction cost value of new dwellings is $688,000, suggesting developers focus on the premium market with high-end developments. This financial year has seen $38.5 million in commercial approvals registered, demonstrating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Sydney, Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry maintains similar construction rates per capita, preserving its low-density nature with 89% detached houses and 11% medium and high-density housing.

The area's quiet development environment is reflected in the estimated 350 people per dwelling approval. By 2041, Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry is projected to grow by 684 residents. Current development patterns suggest that new housing supply should meet demand, potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 169 projects likely impacting the region. Notable initiatives include North Kellyville Public School, Dural Town Centre, Annangrove Road Mixed Use Development, and another Dural Town Centre project. The following list details those expected to have most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry has a well-educated workforce with strong professional services representation. The unemployment rate was 3.8% as of September 2025.

Employment stability in the area remained relatively consistent over the past year. As of September 2025, 12,371 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.4%, 0.8 percentage points below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation was similar to Greater Sydney's at 60.0%. Leading employment industries included construction, health care & social assistance, and professional & technical services.

Construction showed particularly strong specialization with an employment share of 2.0 times the regional level. Health care & social assistance had lower representation at 10.8% compared to the regional average of 14.1%. Many residents commuted elsewhere for work based on Census working population data. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 0.2%, labour force grew by 0.7%, leading to an unemployment rise of 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with a 0.2 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data from NSW as of 25-Nov showed employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National unemployment was at 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 estimated total employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2022, Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $57,871. The average level stood at $118,135. Nationally, these figures are exceptionally high compared to Greater Sydney's levels of $56,994 and $80,856 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $65,169 (median) and $133,032 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household incomes rank exceptionally at the 92nd percentile ($2,595 weekly). Income analysis reveals that 30.8% of residents (7,184 people) fall within the $4000+ bracket, differing from regional patterns where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 30.9%. Economic strength is evident through 44.1% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. Housing accounts for 13.9% of income. Residents rank within the 92nd percentile for disposable income, and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, comprised 91.2% houses and 8.8% other dwellings. In comparison, Sydney metro had 91.0% houses and 9.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry was 45.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 41.1% and rented ones at 13.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,033, higher than Sydney metro's $3,000. The median weekly rent was $550, compared to Sydney metro's $520. Nationally, Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863 and rents substantially above the national average of $375.

Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 84.2% of all households, including 47.4% couples with children, 27.5% couples without children, and 8.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for 15.8%, with lone person households at 14.3% and group households comprising 1.4%. The median household size is 3.2 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 3.1.

The educational profile of Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 29.6%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 40.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 20.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are held by 35.8% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 12.2% and certificates at 23.6%. Educational participation is high, with 30.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.9% in primary education, 9.7% in secondary education, and 5.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis of public transport data shows that as of June 2021, there are 371 active transport stops operating within the Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry area. These stops offer a mix of bus services and are serviced by 179 individual routes. Together, these routes facilitate 2,334 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 314 meters from the nearest transport stop. Service frequency averages around 333 trips per day across all routes, equating to roughly six weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry shows superior health outcomes for both younger and older residents. Common health conditions have a low prevalence in this area.

Approximately 79% of its total population of 18,405 has private health cover, which is higher than the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 7.4% of residents) and asthma (6.1%). A majority of residents, 73%, report no medical ailments, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 72.3%. As of 2021, 21.3% of the population is aged 65 or over, totaling 4,970 people. This figure is lower than Greater Sydney's 22.4%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in the area are notably strong and outperform those of the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry had a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 24.7% of its population born overseas and 19.3% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry, making up 66.3% of people, compared to 65.5% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were English (24.9%), Australian (23.0%), and Other (7.7%).

Notably, Lebanese ethnicity was higher at 3.9% compared to the regional average of 3.6%, Maltese was 1.9% versus 1.7%, and Italian was 6.2% against a regional average of 6.0%.

Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry is 44, which exceeds Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and the national norm of 38. The 55-64 age group constitutes 13.9%, compared to Greater Sydney, while the 25-34 cohort represents 7.7%. Post the 2021 Census, the 75-84 age group grew from 6.7% to 7.9%, and the 15-24 cohort increased from 14.0% to 15.2%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort declined from 15.6% to 14.6%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry's age profile. The 85+ group is expected to grow by 105%, reaching 1,397 from 681. Those aged 65 and above will comprise 92% of projected growth. Meanwhile, the 45-54 and 0-4 cohorts are anticipated to experience population declines.