Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry's population is around 23,276 as of Aug 2025. This reflects an increase of 797 people (3.5%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 22,479 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 22,976 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 186 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 61 persons per square kilometer. Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry's 3.5% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (3.0%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which was essentially the sole driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Examining future population trends, lower quartile growth is anticipated, with the area expected to grow by 1,070 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, reflecting an increase of 3.2% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry has seen approximately 87 new homes approved annually. Development approval data is produced by the ABS on a financial year basis, showing 438 homes over the past five financial years from FY-21 to FY-25. As of FY-26, there have been 11 approvals so far. On average, 1.1 people move to the area each year for every dwelling built over the past five financial years.

This suggests a balanced supply and demand, maintaining stable market dynamics. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost value of $1,097,000, indicating developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In FY-26, commercial development approvals totalled $38.5 million, demonstrating strong commercial development momentum.

Compared to Greater Sydney, Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry maintains similar construction rates per person, keeping market balance consistent with the broader area. However, building activity has slowed in recent years. Detached houses account for 89.0% of new building activity, while medium and high-density housing makes up 11.0%, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated population count per dwelling approval is 350 people, reflecting its quiet development environment. By 2041, Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry is projected to grow by 735 residents. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure. AreaSearch has identified 168 projects that could impact this area. Notable projects include North Kellyville Public School, Dural Town Centre, Annangrove Road Mixed Use Development, and Bellerive Rise Estate. The following list details those projects expected to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment performance in Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry has been broadly consistent with national averages

Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry has a highly educated workforce with strong professional services representation. Its unemployment rate was 3.9% in June 2025, 0.3% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.3%. As of June 2025, 12,631 residents were employed. Leading employment industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and professional & technical services. Construction had an employment share of 2.0 times the regional level.

Conversely, health care & social assistance showed lower representation at 10.8% compared to the regional average of 14.1%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 2.3%, labour force increased by 3.2%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.9 percentage points. Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.6% and labour force growth of 2.9%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. As of Sep-25, NSW's employment had contracted by 0.41%, losing 19,270 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.5% and lagging national employment growth of 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.6% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022 shows Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry had a median income among taxpayers of $57,871. The average income stood at $118,135. Nationally, these figures are exceptionally high, with Greater Sydney's levels being $56,994 and $80,856 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $64,005 (median) and $130,657 (average) as of March 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household incomes rank exceptionally at the 92nd percentile ($2,595 weekly). Income analysis reveals that 30.8% of residents (7,169 people) fall into the $4,000+ bracket, differing from regional patterns where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominates with 30.9%. Economic strength is evident through 44.1% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. Housing accounts for 13.9% of income. Strong earnings rank residents within the 93rd percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

The latest Census in Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry showed that 91.2% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 8.8% being semi-detached homes, apartments, or other types. This is similar to Sydney's metropolitan area, where 91.0% of dwellings are houses and 9.0% are other types. Home ownership in Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry was 45.5%, with mortgaged properties at 41.1% and rented ones at 13.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area, as of the latest data, was $3,033, higher than Sydney's average of $3,000. The median weekly rent figure for Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry was $550, slightly above Sydney's average of $520. Nationally, mortgage repayments in the area were significantly higher at $3,033 compared to the Australian average of $1,863. Rents in Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry were also substantially higher than the national figure of $375.

Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 84.2% of all households, including 47.4% couples with children, 27.5% couples without children, and 8.7% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 15.8%, with lone person households at 14.3% and group households making up 1.4%. The median household size is 3.2 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 3.1.

The educational profile of Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area has university qualification rates at 29.6%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 40.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 20.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 35.8% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (12.2%) and certificates (23.6%).

Educational participation is high at 30.7%, including 9.9% in primary education, 9.7% in secondary education, and 5.7% pursuing tertiary education. The area has 17 schools serving 5,944 students, with Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry demonstrating above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1062). The educational mix includes 9 primary, 1 secondary, and 7 K-12 schools. Note that for schools showing 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The transport analysis indicates that there are currently 371 operational transport stops in the Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry area. These stops offer a variety of bus services, with a total of 179 different routes operating weekly. This results in approximately 2,334 passenger trips per week across these routes combined.

The accessibility of public transport is considered good, with residents residing on average 314 meters away from the nearest transport stop. On average, there are about 333 trips daily across all routes, equating to roughly six weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry demonstrates above-average health outcomes, with both young and elderly age cohorts having a low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 79% of the total population of 18,364 people, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, affecting 7.4 and 6.1% of residents respectively. A total of 73.0% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, slightly higher than the Greater Sydney average of 72.3%. The area has 21.3% of residents aged 65 and over, totalling 4,960 people, which is lower than the 22.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, performing even better than the general population in health metrics.

Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 24.7% of its population born overseas and 19.3% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in this area, accounting for 66.3%, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 65.5%. The top three ancestry groups were English (24.9%), Australian (23.0%), and Other (7.7%).

Notably, Lebanese residents made up 3.9% compared to the regional average of 3.6%, Maltese residents were at 1.9% versus 1.7%, and Italian residents stood at 6.2% against the regional average of 6.0%.

Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry is 44, which exceeds Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and significantly surpasses the national average of 38. The area has a strong representation of the 55-64 age group at 13.9%, compared to Greater Sydney, while the 25-34 cohort is less prevalent at 7.7%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75-84 age group grew from 6.7% to 7.9% of the population, and the 15-24 cohort increased from 14.0% to 15.2%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort declined from 15.6% to 14.6%. Demographic modeling indicates significant changes in Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry's age profile by 2041. The 85+ group is projected to grow by 106%, reaching 1,397 people from the current 679. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above accounting for 92% of the projected growth. Meanwhile, the 45-54 and 0-4 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.