Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry

An assessment of population growth drivers in Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry's population is around 23,909 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,430 people (6.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 22,479 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 22,943 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 201 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 63 persons per square kilometer, providing ample space per person. Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry's 6.4% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (5.3%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which was essentially the sole driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, lower quartile growth of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch is anticipated, with the area expected to grow by 1,070 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 0.4% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry has seen around 87 new homes approved each year, with 438 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 58 so far in FY-26. At an average of 1.1 new residents per year arriving per new home over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply and demand appear well-balanced, creating stable market conditions, while new dwellings are developed at an average value of $688,000, showing that developers are focusing on the premium market with high-end developments. Additionally, $38.5 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, indicating strong commercial development momentum.

Relative to Greater Sydney, Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry maintains similar construction rates (per person), maintaining market balance consistent with the broader area, though building activity has slowed in recent years. New building activity shows 89.0% detached houses and 11.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached houses attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated count of 350 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

Looking ahead, Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry is expected to grow by 102 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 167 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Dural Town Centre, North Kellyville Public School, Annangrove Road Mixed Use Development, and Bellerive Rise Estate, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry possesses a well-educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. As of December 2025, 12,297 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is in line with Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, and workforce participation is somewhat below standard (67.4% compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%). Based on Census responses, a high 42.5% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise construction, health care & social assistance, and professional & technical. The area shows particularly strong specialization in construction, with an employment share of 2.0 times the regional level. Conversely, health care & social assistance shows lower representation at 10.8% versus the regional average of 14.1%. While local employment opportunities exist in the area, it appears many residents commute elsewhere for work, based on the count of Census working population to local population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.2% alongside a 1.1% employment decline, causing unemployment to rise by 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%, with a marginal rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.3% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $62,668 with the average level standing at $106,936. This is exceptionally high nationally and compares to levels of $60,817 and $83,003 across Greater Sydney respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $68,220 (median) and $116,411 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household incomes rank exceptionally at the 92nd percentile ($2,595 weekly). Income analysis reveals the $4000+ bracket dominates with 30.8% of residents (7,363 people), differing from patterns across regional levels where $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 30.9%. Economic strength emerges through 44.1% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. Housing accounts for 13.9% of income while strong earnings rank residents within the 92nd percentile for disposable income and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 91.2% houses and 8.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry was well beyond that of Sydney metro, at 45.5%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (41.1%) or rented (13.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Sydney metro average at $3,033, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $550, compared to Sydney metro's $2,427 and $470. Nationally, Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 84.2% of all households, comprising 47.4% couples with children, 27.5% couples without children, and 8.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 15.8%, with lone person households at 14.3% and group households comprising 1.4% of the total. The median household size of 3.2 people is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

The educational profile of Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (29.6%) substantially below the SA4 region average of 40.4%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 20.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 35.8% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (12.2%) and certificates (23.6%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.9% in primary education, 9.7% in secondary education, and 5.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 423 active transport stops operating within Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 180 individual routes, collectively providing 3,017 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 314 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 91%, with 5% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 2.3 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A high 42.5% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 431 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 7 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data demonstrates outstanding results across Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. There is a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups, and the rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 74% of the total population (17,692 people). This compares to 59.9% across Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 7.4% and 6.1% of residents, respectively, while 73.0% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents are notably healthy with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 21.9% of residents aged 65 and over (5,233 people), which is higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets, with 24.7% of its population born overseas and 19.3% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry is Christianity, which makes up 66.3% of people in the area. This compares to 49.2% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry are English, comprising 24.9% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 19.0%, Australian, comprising 23.0% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 17.8%, and Other, comprising 7.7% of the population, which is notably lower than the regional average of 16.0%. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Lebanese is notably overrepresented at 3.9% of Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry (vs 2.6% regionally), Maltese at 1.9% (vs 1.0%) and Italian at 6.2% (vs 3.4%).

Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

With a median age of 44, Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry is notably exceeding the Greater Sydney figure of 37 and is substantially exceeding the national norm of 38. The 55 - 64 age group shows strong representation at 14.1% compared to Greater Sydney, whereas the 25 - 34 cohort is less prevalent at 7.5%. Following the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 14.0% to 15.5% of the population, while the 75 to 84 cohort increased from 6.7% to 8.2%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 15.6% to 14.3%. Demographic modeling suggests Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. Leading the demographic shift, the 85+ group will grow by 88% (653 people), reaching 1,397 from 743. The aging population dynamic is clear, with those 65+ comprising 100% of projected growth. Meanwhile, the 15 to 24 and 45 to 54 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.