Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry

An assessment of population growth drivers in Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry's population is approximately 23,010. This figure represents a growth of 531 people (2.4%) since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 22,479. The increase is inferred from ABS' estimated resident population of 23,007 in June 2025 and an additional 212 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 60 persons per square kilometer. Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry's growth rate of 2.4% since the 2021 census surpassed the SA3 area average of 2.1%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 97.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends suggest lower quartile growth, with the area expected to grow by 942 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 4.1% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry has seen approximately 87 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25438 homes were approved. As of FY26, 67 homes have been approved.

On average, 1.1 new residents arrive per year for each new home over these five years, indicating balanced supply and demand with stable market conditions. The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $688,000, suggesting developers focus on the premium market. This financial year has seen $38.5 million in commercial approvals, reflecting strong commercial development momentum.

Compared to Greater Sydney, Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry maintains similar construction rates per person, preserving its low-density nature with 89.0% detached houses and 11.0% medium and high-density housing. The area has an estimated 350 people per dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet development environment. By 2041, the area is projected to grow by 937 residents based on current development patterns. New housing supply should readily meet demand, offering favorable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 159 such projects that could affect the region. Notable ones include North Kellyville Public School, Dural Town Centre, Annangrove Road Mixed Use Development, and Bellerive Rise Estate. The following list details those considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry has a well-educated workforce with professional services strongly represented. As of December 2025, the unemployment rate is 4.1%, in line with Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is broadly similar to Greater Sydney's 68.8%.

According to Census responses, 42.5% of residents work from home. Leading employment industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and professional & technical services. Construction shows strong specialization with an employment share of 2.0 times the regional level. Conversely, health care & social assistance has lower representation at 10.8% compared to the regional average of 14.1%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Over the year to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.2%, with employment declining by 1.1%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch aggregated latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023. Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $62,668 and an average income of $106,936. These figures are exceptionally high nationally compared to Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates as of March 2026 would be approximately $69,135 (median) and $117,972 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household incomes rank at the 92nd percentile with a weekly income of $2,595. Income analysis shows that 30.8% of residents (7,087 people) fall into the $4,000+ bracket, differing from regional patterns where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominates with 30.9%. Economic strength is evident with 44.1% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. Housing accounts for 13.9% of income. Strong earnings place residents within the 92nd percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry, as per the latest Census, consisted of 91.2% houses and 8.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is compared to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. The home ownership level in Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry was 45.5%, with the rest being mortgaged (41.1%) or rented (13.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $3,033, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent figure was $550, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 84.2% of all households, including 47.4% couples with children, 27.5% couples without children, and 8.7% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 15.8%, with lone person households at 14.3% and group households comprising 1.4%. The median household size is 3.2 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

The educational profile of Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 29.6%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 40.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 20.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 35.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.2%) and certificates (23.6%). Educational participation is high, with 30.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 9.9% in primary, 9.7% in secondary, and 5.7% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.9% in primary education, 9.7% in secondary education, and 5.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transportation in Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry shows that there are 423 active transport stops operating in the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totalling 180 individual routes. Together, these routes facilitate 3,017 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport is rated as good, with residents typically located 314 meters from their nearest transport stop. Being primarily residential, most commuters in the area travel outward. Cars remain the dominant mode of transportation, used by 91% of residents, while walking accounts for 5%.

On average, there are 2.3 vehicles per dwelling, which is higher than the regional average. Notably, 42.5% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions (as per the 2021 Census). The service frequency averages 431 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 7 weekly trips per individual stop. A map accompanies this data, highlighting the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

AreaSearch's assessment shows excellent health outcomes across Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are very low across all age groups. Private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 74% of the total population (17,027 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and 55.7% nationally.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (7.4%) and asthma (6.1%). 73.0% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. 21.5% of residents are aged 65 and over (4,942 people), higher than the 15.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors rank broadly in line with the general population nationally.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry has a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 24.7% of its population born overseas and 19.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry, accounting for 66.3%, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups are English (24.9%), Australian (23.0%), and Other (7.7%).

Notably, Lebanese (3.9%) and Maltese (1.9%) are overrepresented, while Italian is significantly higher at 6.2%.

Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry has a median age of 44, which exceeds Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and is substantially higher than the national norm of 38. The area shows strong representation in the 55-64 age group at 14.3%, compared to Greater Sydney, while the 25-34 cohort is less prevalent at 8.0%. According to the 2021 Census, the 15-24 age group has grown from 14.0% to 15.8% of the population, and the 75-84 cohort increased from 6.7% to 8.0%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has declined from 15.6% to 14.1%, and the 35-44 group dropped from 10.6% to 9.6%. Demographic modeling suggests that by 2041, Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry's age profile will evolve significantly. The 85+ group is projected to grow by 95%, reaching 1,372 from 704. The aging population dynamic is clear, with those aged 65 and above comprising 92% of the projected growth. Meanwhile, the 25-34 and 0-4 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.