Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry

An assessment of population growth drivers in Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry's population was 23,909 as of Feb 2026, reflecting a 1,430 person increase since the 2021 Census. The June 2024 ABS estimate of 22,943 plus 201 new addresses accounted for this growth. This resulted in a population density of 63 persons per square kilometer. The area's 6.4% growth from 2021 exceeded the SA3 average of 5.3%. Overseas migration primarily drove this growth. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a 2022 base year.

For uncovered areas, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a 2021 base year are used. Age group growth rates are applied to all areas until 2041. Future trends suggest lower quartile growth, with the area expected to grow by 1,070 persons to 2041, reflecting a 0.4% increase over 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry has seen approximately 87 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25438 homes were approved, with an additional 55 approved in FY26 so far. On average, 1.1 new residents have arrived per new home each year over these five years, suggesting balanced supply and demand conditions.

The average construction value of new dwellings is $688,000, indicating a focus on premium developments. This financial year has seen $38.5 million in commercial approvals, reflecting strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Sydney, Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry maintains similar construction rates per capita, preserving its low-density nature with 89% detached houses and 11% medium-high density housing.

The area currently has an estimated 350 people per dwelling approval. By 2041, the population is projected to grow by 102 residents based on current development patterns.

Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 167 projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include Dural Town Centre, North Kellyville Public School, Annangrove Road Mixed Use Development, and Bellerive Rise Estate. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry has a highly educated workforce with professional services well-represented. As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 3.8%. Over the past year, employment stability has been relative.

There are 12,371 residents in work, with an unemployment rate 0.4% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is lower at 67.6% compared to Greater Sydney's 70.0%. According to Census responses, 42.5% of residents work from home. Leading employment industries are construction, health care & social assistance, and professional & technical services.

Construction shows strong specialization with an employment share twice the regional level. Conversely, health care & social assistance has lower representation at 10.8% versus the regional average of 14.1%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 0.2%, labour force by 0.7%, leading to a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced higher growth rates. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch aggregated latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023. Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $62,668 and an average income of $106,936. These figures are exceptionally high nationally compared to Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $68,220 (median) and $116,411 (average). According to 2021 Census figures, household incomes rank at the 92nd percentile with a weekly income of $2,595. Income analysis reveals that 30.8% of residents (7,363 people) fall into the $4,000+ bracket, differing from regional patterns where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominates with 30.9%. Economic strength is evident through 44.1% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. Housing accounts for 13.9% of income. Strong earnings rank residents within the 92nd percentile for disposable income and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 91.2% houses and 8.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in the area stood at 45.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 41.1% and rented ones at 13.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,033, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent was $550, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863, and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 84.2% of all households, including 47.4% couples with children, 27.5% couples without children, and 8.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 15.8%, with lone person households at 14.3% and group households at 1.4%. The median household size is 3.2 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

The educational profile of Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 29.6%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 40.4%. This discrepancy presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 20.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 35.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas (12.2%) and certificates (23.6%).

Educational participation is high, with 30.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.9% in primary education, 9.7% in secondary education, and 5.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 423 active public transport stops operating in Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry area, with a mix of bus services. These stops are serviced by 180 individual routes, collectively providing 3,017 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 314 meters from the nearest transport stop. The area is primarily residential, with most residents commuting outward. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 91%, while 5% walk. Vehicle ownership averages 2.3 per dwelling, above the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a high 42.5% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 431 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 7 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

AreaSearch's health outcomes data shows exceptional results for Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are very low across all age groups. Private health cover is exceptionally high at 74% of the total population (17,692 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 7.4 and 6.1% of residents respectively. 73.0% of residents declare they are completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 21.9% of residents aged 65 and over (5,233 people), higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry has a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 24.7% of its population born overseas and 19.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Dural-Kenthurst-Wisemans Ferry, making up 66.3% of the population, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English (24.9%, regional average 19.0%), Australian (23.0%, regional average 17.8%), and Other (7.7%, regional average 16.0%).

Notably, Lebanese ethnicity is overrepresented at 3.9% (regional average 2.6%), Maltese at 1.9% (regional average 1.0%), and Italian at 6.2% (regional average 3.4%).

Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry is 44, surpassing Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and significantly exceeding the national norm of 38. The 55-64 age group makes up 14.1%, higher than Greater Sydney, while the 25-34 cohort stands at 7.5%. Post-2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 14.0% to 15.5%, and the 75 to 84 cohort has risen from 6.7% to 8.2%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 15.6% to 14.3%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Dural - Kenthurst - Wisemans Ferry's age profile. The 85+ group is expected to grow by 88%, reaching 1,397 from 743. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above accounting for all projected growth. Meanwhile, the 15 to 24 and 45 to 54 age groups are anticipated to experience population declines.