Sarina

Sarina is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Sarina's population is estimated at around 5,878 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 259 people (4.6%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,619 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 5,869, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 33 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 23 persons per square kilometer. Sarina's 4.6% growth since census positions it within 2.0 percentage points of the SA3 area (6.6%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 54.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data, are adopted. It should be noted that these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence where utilised, AreaSearch is applying proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) for each age cohort. Considering the projected demographic shifts, a population increase just below the median of Australia's non-metropolitan areas is expected, with the suburb expected to grow by 779 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting recording a gain of 14.0% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Sarina recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Sarina had around 14 dwelling approvals annually. From FY-21 to FY-25, approximately 73 homes were approved, with 4 more in FY-26. This averages out to about 5.2 new residents per year for each home built over the past five financial years.

Supply is lagging demand, indicating heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. The average construction value of new dwellings is $475,000, aligning with regional trends. Commercial approvals this financial year totalled $11.8 million, suggesting moderate commercial development. Compared to the Rest of Qld, Sarina has about 75% of the construction activity per person and ranks in the 24th percentile nationally, offering limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing properties.

This activity is below the national average, indicating an established area potentially hindered by planning limitations. All new constructions have been standalone homes, preserving low-density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. There are approximately 654 people per dwelling approval in the area. By 2041, Sarina's population is forecast to increase by 822 residents. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Sarina has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 46thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified nine projects likely to impact this region. Notable ones are Ozcare Sarina Aged Care Expansion, Pacific Parks Estate, Central Village Sarina, and Anzac Street Sarina Railway Crossing. The following list details those considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Sarina exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Sarina maintains a balanced workforce comprising white and blue collar jobs, with prominent manufacturing and industrial sectors. Its unemployment rate is 3.0%.

In the past year, ending June 2025, employment grew by an estimated 1.8%. As of that date, 2,836 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.9% below Rest of Qld's 3.9%. Workforce participation is lower at 56.4%, compared to Rest of Qld's 59.1%. Key employment sectors include mining, transport, postal & warehousing, and health care & social assistance.

Mining is particularly strong with a share 3.7 times the regional level. However, health care & social assistance is under-represented at 9.5% compared to Rest of Qld's 16.1%. Local employment opportunities seem limited based on Census data comparison. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 1.8%, labour force decreased by 0.4%, leading to a 2.2 percentage point drop in unemployment. In contrast, Rest of Qld saw employment grow by 1.8% with a 0.2 percentage point unemployment rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's Sep-22 forecasts project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Sarina's employment mix suggests local growth of 5.1% over five years and 11.4% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022, Sarina had a median income among taxpayers of $53,921. The average income stood at $67,673. This was above the national average and compared to levels of $50,780 and $64,844 across Rest of Qld respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 13.99% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $61,465 (median) and $77,140 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Sarina, between the 30th and 41st percentiles. The data shows the predominant cohort spans 31.1% of locals (1,828 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 income category. After housing, 85.6% of income remains for other expenses.

Sarina is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Sarina's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census evaluation, consisted of 91.7% houses and 8.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Qld's 85.1% houses and 14.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sarina was at 35.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 37.3% and rented dwellings at 27.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, aligning with Non-Metro Qld's average. The median weekly rent figure was $300, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $340. Nationally, Sarina's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Sarina has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 74.2% of all households, including 30.5% couples with children, 30.8% couples without children, and 11.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 25.8%, with lone person households at 23.3% and group households comprising 2.6%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the average in the Rest of Qld.

Sarina faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 8.2%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 6.3%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.2%) and postgraduate qualifications (0.7%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 44.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (6.8%) and certificates (37.4%).

Educational participation is high at 30.6%, comprising 12.4% in primary education, 10.6% in secondary education, and 2.4% in tertiary education. The four schools in Sarina have a combined enrollment of 1,491 students, with varied educational conditions (ICSEA: 928). Education provision is balanced with three primary and one secondary school serving distinct age groups. School capacity exceeds typical residential needs (25.4 places per 100 residents vs 17.1 regionally), indicating the area serves as an educational center for the broader region.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Sarina has ten active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by a single route in total, offering 50 weekly passenger trips combined. The accessibility of these services is rated as moderate, with residents generally located 504 meters away from the nearest stop.

On average, there are seven trips per day across all routes, which translates to about five weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Sarina is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Sarina faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is approximately 54% of the total population (~3,175 people), compared to 57.0% across Rest of Qld.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (9.0%) and mental health issues (8.5%). About 66.4% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 69.7% in Rest of Qld. There are 19.4% of residents aged 65 and over (1,140 people), higher than the 16.2% in Rest of Qld. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

The latest Census data sees Sarina placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Sarina's population showed low cultural diversity, with 86.7% being citizens, 92.6% born in Australia, and 97.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, accounting for 56.5%, similar to the Rest of Qld's 56.8%. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (33.2%), English (29.5%), and Scottish (7.3%).

Notably, Maltese were overrepresented at 1.4% compared to the regional 2.4%, while Australian Aboriginal were at 5.8% versus 3.6%. German representation was also notable at 4.6%, close to the regional 4.7%.

Sarina's median age exceeds the national pattern

Sarina's median age is 40, close to Rest of Qld's figure of 41 but exceeding the national norm of 38. The 15-24 age group comprises 13.3%, higher than Rest of Qld, while the 25-34 cohort stands at 11.4%. Post the 2021 Census, the 75-84 age group has grown from 5.1% to 6.2%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has decreased from 14.0% to 12.5%, and the 5-14 group has dropped from 13.4% to 12.3%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Sarina's age profile will significantly evolve. Leading this shift, the 25-34 group is projected to grow by 34% (225 people), reaching 896 from 670. Meanwhile, population declines are forecast for the 55-64 and 15-24 cohorts.