Shoal Point - Bucasia

Population growth drivers in Shoal Point - Bucasia are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Shoal Point - Bucasia's population was around 6,622 as of November 2025, according to AreaSearch's analysis. This figure represents an increase of 538 people, or 8.8%, since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,084. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 6,530 in June 2024 and an additional 93 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 371 persons per square kilometer. Shoal Point - Bucasia's growth rate exceeded that of its SA3 area (6.6%) and SA4 region, making it a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 59.3% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas migration and interstate migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections are used, released in 2023 based on 2021 data. However, these state projections do not provide age category splits, so AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections for each age cohort, released in 2023 based on 2022 data. Future population dynamics anticipate a significant increase in the top quartile of regional areas across the nation, with Shoal Point - Bucasia expected to increase by 2,205 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 31.9% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Shoal Point - Bucasia among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Shoal Point - Bucasia averaged approximately 35 new dwelling approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25175 homes were approved, with a further 40 approved in FY26 as of now. Each dwelling built over these years attracted an average of 2.9 new residents per year, indicating strong demand that may support property values.

New homes are being constructed at an average expected cost of $345,000, aligning with regional trends. This financial year has seen $2.5 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's predominantly residential character. Compared to the rest of Queensland, Shoal Point - Bucasia records 53.0% more construction activity per person, offering greater choice for buyers. The current building activity comprises 96.0% standalone homes and 4.0% medium to high-density housing, preserving the area's low-density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers.

As of now, there are approximately 282 people per dwelling approval in the location, suggesting room for growth. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Shoal Point - Bucasia is projected to gain around 2,113 residents by 2041. Development appears to be keeping pace with this projected growth, although increasing competition among buyers may arise as the population expands.

Shoal Point - Bucasia has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified six projects likely affecting the region. Notable ones are Royal Sands Mackay Estate, Mackay-Bucasia Road and Golf Links Road Intersection Upgrade, Bucasia 186 Homes and Childcare Centre, Reed Street Extension (Norwood Parade/Reed Street Connection). The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Shoal Point - Bucasia performing better than 85% of local markets assessed across Australia

Shoal Point - Bucasia has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, particularly in manufacturing and industrial sectors. Its unemployment rate was 2.5% as of September 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.5%. There are 3,746 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.5%, below Rest of Qld's rate of 4.1%. Workforce participation is high at 68.2% compared to Rest of Qld's 59.1%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, mining, and retail trade.

Mining employment is notably high, at 3.9 times the regional average. Agriculture, forestry & fishing employ just 0.6%, below Rest of Qld's 4.5%. Employment opportunities appear limited locally based on Census data analysis. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 4.5% while labour force rose by 4.7%, leading to a slight unemployment increase of 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Qld had employment growth of 1.7% and unemployment rise of 0.3%. State-level data from November 2025 shows Queensland's employment contracted slightly by 0.01%, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. National forecasts project total employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth varies between sectors. Applying these projections to Shoal Point - Bucasia's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by approximately 5.9% over five years and 12.8% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The median taxpayer income for Shoal Point - Bucasia SA2 is $60,534 and the average is $72,995 according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2022. This is higher than national averages of $50,780 median income and $64,844 average income in Rest of Qld. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 13.99% since FY2022, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $69,003 median and $83,207 average. Census 2021 income data shows Shoal Point - Bucasia's household, family, and personal incomes are at the 71st percentile nationally. Income analysis reveals that 36.6% of residents earn between $1,500 to $2,999 (2,423 individuals), similar to the region where 31.7% fall within this bracket. Housing contributes to 14.3% of income, with strong earnings placing residents at the 74th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Shoal Point - Bucasia is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Shoal Point - Bucasia, as per the latest Census, consisted of 90.6% houses and 9.4% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is compared to Non-Metro Qld's structure of 85.1% houses and 14.9% other dwellings. The home ownership rate in Shoal Point - Bucasia was at 24.1%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (45.5%) or rented (30.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,733, aligning with Non-Metro Qld's average. However, the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $380, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $340. Nationally, Shoal Point - Bucasia's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Shoal Point - Bucasia features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 79.6% of all households, including 36.9% couples with children, 28.7% couples without children, and 12.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 20.4%, with lone person households at 18.4% and group households comprising 2.4%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Rest of Qld average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Shoal Point - Bucasia fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area has lower university qualification rates compared to Australia's average, with only 16.0% of residents holding such qualifications (Australian average: 30.4%). This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common among these qualifications at 11.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 2.2% and graduate diplomas at 2.1%. Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 46.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.8%) and certificates (37.4%).

Educational participation is high, with 34.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (13.6%), secondary education (11.2%), and tertiary education (3.8%).

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Shoal Point - Bucasia shows that there are currently 20 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 98 weekly passenger trips provided collectively by these routes. The accessibility to transport is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 279 meters away from their nearest transport stop.

On average, there are 14 trips per day across all routes, which equates to roughly 4 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Shoal Point - Bucasia is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Shoal Point - Bucasia has demonstrated above-average health outcomes for both younger and older age groups.

The prevalence of common health conditions is low among residents. Approximately 56% of the total population (around 3708 people) have private health cover, which is significantly higher than the average rate. Mental health issues and asthma are the most prevalent medical conditions in the area, affecting around 8.0% and 7.8% of residents respectively. About 71.7% of residents reported having no medical ailments at all, compared to approximately 69.7% across the rest of Queensland. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, with around 12.3% (816 people) compared to the state average of 16.2%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in Shoal Point - Bucasia are above average and broadly align with those of the general population.

Shoal Point - Bucasia is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Shoal Point-Bucasia had a cultural diversity index below the average, with 85.2% of its population being Australian citizens, 84.1% born in Australia, and 95.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 47.1% of Shoal Point-Bucasia's population, compared to 56.8% across the rest of Queensland. The top three ancestry groups were English (31.6%), Australian (26.2%), and Irish (8.6%).

Notably, New Zealanders made up 1.0%, Maltese 0.8%, and Germans 4.5% of Shoal Point-Bucasia's population, differing from regional percentages of 0.7%, 2.4%, and 4.7% respectively.

Shoal Point - Bucasia's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Shoal Point - Bucasia has a median age of 36, which is lower than the Rest of Qld figure of 41 and Australia's median age of 38. The 25-34 cohort is notably over-represented in Shoal Point - Bucasia at 14.5%, compared to the Rest of Qld average. Meanwhile, the 75-84 year-olds are under-represented at 3.8%. Between 2021 and present, the 25-34 age group has grown from 13.2% to 14.5%, while the 75-84 cohort increased from 2.7% to 3.8%. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort has declined from 16.6% to 14.1%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Shoal Point - Bucasia's age profile will change significantly. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to grow by 497 people (52%) from 962 to 1,460.