Shoal Point - Bucasia
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Shoal Point - Bucasia are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Shoal Point - Bucasia's population is approximately 6,625 as of August 2025. This represents an increase of 541 people, or 8.9%, since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 6,084. The growth was inferred from the estimated resident population of 6,530 in June 2024 and an additional 94 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 371 persons per square kilometer. Shoal Point - Bucasia's population growth exceeded that of the SA3 area (6.6%) and the SA4 region, indicating its status as a growth leader. Natural growth contributed approximately 59.3% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas migration and interstate migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023 based on 2021 data are adopted. However, these state projections do not provide age category splits, so AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections for each age cohort. Future population dynamics anticipate a significant increase in the top quartile of regional areas across the nation, with Shoal Point - Bucasia expected to increase by 2,205 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, representing an overall increase of 31.9% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Shoal Point - Bucasia among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Shoal Point - Bucasia has averaged approximately 35 new dwelling approvals annually. Development approval data is produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a financial year basis, with 175 homes approved over the past five financial years from FY-2021 to FY-2025, and an additional 22 approved so far in FY-2026. On average, each dwelling built has resulted in approximately 2.9 new residents per year over these past five financial years, indicating solid demand that supports property values. The average expected construction cost value of new homes being built is $437,000, which is below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers.

In terms of commercial approvals, approximately $2.5 million has been registered in this financial year, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to the rest of Queensland, Shoal Point - Bucasia has 53.0% more new home approvals per person, offering greater choice for buyers. Recent construction consists of 96.0% detached dwellings and 4.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low-density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers with an emphasis on detached housing. With around 282 people per dwelling approval, Shoal Point - Bucasia demonstrates a developing market.

Population forecasts indicate that the area will gain approximately 2,110 residents by the year 2041. Construction is maintaining a reasonable pace with projected growth; however, buyers may encounter growing competition as the population increases.

Shoal Point - Bucasia has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 46thth percentile nationally

Six projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area, significantly influencing its performance. These include Royal Sands Mackay Estate, Mackay-Bucasia Road and Golf Links Road Intersection Upgrade, Bucasia 186 Homes and Childcare Centre, Reed Street Extension (Norwood Parade/Reed Street Connection). The following details those projected to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Shoal Point - Bucasia performing better than 90% of local markets assessed across Australia

Shoal Point - Bucasia has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, predominantly in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 1.8% as of June 2025, lower than the Rest of Qld's rate of 3.9%.

Employment grew by 1.0% over the past year. Key industries include health care & social assistance, mining, and retail trade, with mining being particularly strong at 3.9 times the regional level. Agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, comprising only 0.6% of the workforce compared to 4.5% in Rest of Qld. Employment opportunities appear limited locally based on Census data.

Over the year to June 2025, employment increased by 1.0%, labour force decreased by 0.3%, leading to a 1.3 percentage point drop in unemployment rate. This contrasts with Rest of Qld where employment grew by 1.8% and unemployment rose slightly. State-level data as of Sep-25 shows Queensland's employment contracted by 0.23%, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. National forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but local projections suggest Shoal Point - Bucasia may see slower growth at approximately 5.9% over five years and 12.8% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows income in Shoal Point - Bucasia is well above average nationally, with a median assessed at $60,534 and an average income of $72,995. This contrasts with Rest of Qld's figures of a median income of $50,780 and an average income of $64,844. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 11.71% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $67,623 (median) and $81,543 (average) as of March 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in Shoal Point - Bucasia cluster around the 71st percentile nationally. Income brackets indicate 36.6% of the population (2,424 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range. Housing accounts for 14.3% of income while strong earnings rank residents within the 74th percentile for disposable income and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Shoal Point - Bucasia is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Shoal Point - Bucasia, as per the latest Census, consisted of 90.6% houses and 9.4% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This differs from Non-Metro Qld's figures which were 85.1% houses and 14.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Shoal Point - Bucasia was at 24.1%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (45.5%) or rented (30.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,733, aligning with Non-Metro Qld's average, while the median weekly rent figure was $380 compared to Non-Metro Qld's $340. Nationally, Shoal Point - Bucasia's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Shoal Point - Bucasia features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 79.6% of all households, including 36.9% couples with children, 28.7% couples without children, and 12.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 20.4%, with lone person households making up 18.4% and group households comprising 2.4%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Rest of Qld average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Shoal Point - Bucasia fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.0%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 46.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.8%) and certificates (37.4%).

Educational participation is high at 34.7%, comprising primary education (13.6%), secondary education (11.2%), and tertiary education (3.8%). Bucasia State School serves Shoal Point - Bucasia, with an enrollment of 479 students. The area has typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 967) and balanced educational opportunities, focusing exclusively on primary education with secondary options available nearby. Local school capacity is limited at 7.2 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 17.1, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transportation in Shoal Point - Bucasia reveals that there are currently twenty active transport stops operating. These stops serve a mix of bus routes. The services are provided by one individual route, collectively offering ninety-eight weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located two hundred seventy-nine meters from the nearest transport stop. Service frequency averages fourteen trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately four weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Shoal Point - Bucasia is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Shoal Point - Bucasia exhibits superior health outcomes, with both young and elderly populations experiencing low prevalence rates for common health conditions.

Approximately 56% (~3710 people) of the total population have private health cover, which is notably high. Mental health issues affect around 8.0% of residents, while asthma impacts approximately 7.8%. Notably, 71.7% of residents report no medical ailments, contrasting with the 69.7% average in Rest of Qld. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 12.3% (816 people), compared to Rest of Qld's 16.2%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors remain above average, mirroring the general population's health profile.

Shoal Point - Bucasia is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Shoal Point-Bucasia had a cultural diversity score below average, with 85.2% of its residents being Australian citizens, 84.1% born in Australia, and 95.6% speaking English exclusively at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Shoal Point-Bucasia as of 2016, accounting for 47.1% of the population, compared to 56.8% across the rest of Queensland. The top three ancestry groups were English (31.6%), Australian (26.2%), and Irish (8.6%).

Notably, New Zealanders comprised 1.0%, Maltese 0.8%, Germans 4.5% of Shoal Point-Bucasia's population, while regionally these figures stood at 0.7%, 2.4%, and 4.7% respectively.

Shoal Point - Bucasia's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age of Shoal Point - Bucasia is 36, which is lower than the Rest of Qld figure of 41 and Australia's figure of 38. The 25-34 cohort is notably over-represented in Shoal Point - Bucasia at 14.5%, while the 75-84 age group is under-represented at 3.8%. Between January 2021 and present, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 13.2% to 14.5%, while the 75 to 84 cohort has increased from 2.7% to 3.8%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group has declined from 16.6% to 14.1%. Demographic modeling suggests that Shoal Point - Bucasia's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 25 to 34 age cohort is projected to grow significantly, expanding by 497 people (52%) from 962 to 1,460.