Shoal Point - Bucasia

Population growth drivers in Shoal Point - Bucasia are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Shoal Point - Bucasia's population is around 6,636 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 552 people (9.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,084 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 6,530 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 112 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 371 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Shoal Point - Bucasia's 9.1% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (7.1%) and the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth, which contributed approximately 59.3% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers, including overseas migration and interstate migration, were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data, are adopted. It should be noted that these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence, where utilised, AreaSearch is applying proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) for each age cohort. Anticipating future population dynamics, a significant population increase in the top quartile of Australian non-metropolitan areas is forecast, with the area expected to increase by 2,205 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 31.6% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Shoal Point - Bucasia among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Shoal Point - Bucasia has recorded around 35 residential properties granted approval annually, totalling 175 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 51 approvals have been recorded. With an average of 2.9 people per year moving to the area per new home constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), reflecting robust demand that underpins property values, new homes are being built at an average value of $345,000, in line with regional trends. There have also been $2.5 million in commercial approvals this financial year, indicating limited commercial development focus.

Compared to the Rest of Qld, Shoal Point - Bucasia records 53.0% more new home approvals (per person), creating greater choice for buyers. Recent construction comprises 96.0% standalone homes and 4.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The location has approximately 282 people per dwelling approval, indicating room for growth.

Looking ahead, Shoal Point - Bucasia is expected to grow by 2,099 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Construction is maintaining a reasonable pace with projected growth, although buyers could encounter growing competition as population increases.

Shoal Point - Bucasia has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 6 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Royal Sands Mackay Estate, Mackay-Bucasia Road and Golf Links Road Intersection Upgrade, Bucasia 186 Homes and Childcare Centre, and Reed Street Extension (Norwood Parade/Reed Street Connection), with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Shoal Point - Bucasia performing better than 85% of local markets assessed across Australia

Shoal Point - Bucasia has a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with manufacturing and industrial sectors strongly represented, an unemployment rate of just 2.5%, and 4.8% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 3,759 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.5% below Regional Qld's rate of 4.0%, and workforce participation is well beyond standard (73.7% compared to Regional Qld's 65.4%). Based on Census responses, a low 4.7% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, mining, and retail trade. The area shows particularly strong specialization in mining, with an employment share of 3.9 times the regional level. Meanwhile, agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence with 0.6% employment compared to 4.5% regionally. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw employment increasing by 4.8% alongside labour force increasing by 5.4%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.6 percentage points. By comparison, Regional Qld recorded employment growth of 0.7%, labour force growth of 1.0%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Shoal Point - Bucasia. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Shoal Point - Bucasia's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.8% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The Shoal Point - Bucasia SA2 shows a median taxpayer income of $64,030 and an average of $76,305 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. This is well above average nationally, contrasting with Regional Qld's median income of $53,146 and average income of $66,593. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $70,375 (median) and $83,867 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Shoal Point - Bucasia cluster around the 71st percentile nationally. Income brackets indicate 36.6% of the population (2,428 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, reflecting patterns seen in the surrounding region where 31.7% similarly occupy this range. Housing accounts for 14.3% of income while strong earnings rank residents within the 74th percentile for disposable income and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Shoal Point - Bucasia is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure within Shoal Point - Bucasia, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 90.6% houses and 9.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional Qld's 76.4% houses and 23.6% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Shoal Point - Bucasia was lagging that of Regional Qld, at 24.1%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (45.5%) or rented (30.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was above the Regional Qld average at $1,733, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $380, compared to Regional Qld's $1,655 and $345. Nationally, Shoal Point - Bucasia's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are exceeding the national figure of $375.

Shoal Point - Bucasia features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 79.6% of all households, comprising 36.9% couples with children, 28.7% couples without children, and 12.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 20.4%, with lone person households at 18.4% and group households comprising 2.4% of the total. The median household size of 2.8 people is larger than the Regional Qld average of 2.5.

Educational outcomes in Shoal Point - Bucasia fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (16.0%) substantially below the Australian average of 30.4%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 11.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 46.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (8.8%) and certificates (37.4%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 34.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.6% in primary education, 11.2% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 22 active transport stops operating within Shoal Point - Bucasia, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 1 individual route, collectively providing 98 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 275 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 95%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A relatively low 4.7% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 14 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 4 weekly trips per individual stop.

Shoal Point - Bucasia's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though slightly higher across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Shoal Point - Bucasia, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population, though slightly higher across older, at-risk cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 57% of the total population (~3,782 people), compared to 52.5% across Regional Qld.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 8.0% and 7.8% of residents, respectively, while 71.7% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 67.6% across Regional Qld. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 12.5% of residents aged 65 and over (832 people), which is lower than the 20.4% in Regional Qld. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, though they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Shoal Point - Bucasia is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Shoal Point - Bucasia was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 85.2% of its population being citizens, 84.1% born in Australia, and 95.6% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Shoal Point - Bucasia is Christianity, which makes up 47.1% of people in Shoal Point - Bucasia, compared to 52.2% across Regional Qld.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Shoal Point - Bucasia are English, comprising 31.6% of the population, Australian, comprising 26.2% of the population, and Irish, comprising 8.6% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: New Zealand is notably overrepresented at 1.0% of Shoal Point - Bucasia (vs 0.9% regionally), Maltese at 0.8% (vs 0.4%) and German at 4.5% (vs 4.7%).

Shoal Point - Bucasia's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

With a median age of 36, Shoal Point - Bucasia is considerably lower than the Regional Qld figure of 41 and similarly marginally lower than Australia's 38 years. Compared to the Regional Qld average, the 25 - 34 cohort is notably over-represented (15.0% locally), while 75 - 84 year-olds are under-represented (4.0%). In the period since 2021, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 13.2% to 15.0% of the population, while the 75 to 84 cohort increased from 2.7% to 4.0%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 16.6% to 13.4%. Demographic modeling suggests Shoal Point - Bucasia's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 25 to 34 age cohort is projected to see notable expansion, increasing by 461 people (46%) from 998 to 1,460.