Sarina

Sarina is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Sarina's population, as of February 2026, is approximately 12,476, reflecting a growth of 654 people since the 2021 Census. The population in 2021 was reported to be 11,822. This increase represents a 5.5% change from the census figure and is inferred from the estimated resident population of 12,409 as of June 2024 and an additional 106 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is 8.7 persons per square kilometer. Sarina's growth rate of 5.5% since the census places it within 1.6 percentage points of the SA3 area's growth rate of 7.1%. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 54.1% of overall population gains during recent periods.

All drivers of population change, including natural growth and overseas migration, were positive factors. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections are used, released in 2023 based on 2021 data. However, these state projections do not provide age category splits. Therefore, AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings from the ABS Greater Capital Region projections for each age cohort, released in 2023 with a base year of 2022. Based on projected demographic shifts, Sarina is expected to increase by just below the median of Australian non-metropolitan areas, with an expected increase of 1,551 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an overall increase of 11.9% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Sarina when compared nationally

Sarina has recorded approximately 32 residential properties granted approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling 164 homes. As of FY-26, 18 approvals have been recorded. On average, 4.8 people moved to the area per dwelling built each year between FY-21 and FY-25. This has led to significant demand outpacing supply, potentially exerting upward pressure on prices and increasing buyer competition.

The average construction cost of new homes is $333,000, aligning with regional trends. In FY-26, $39.4 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating high local commercial activity. Compared to the Rest of Qld, Sarina records about three-quarters the building activity per person and ranks among the 34th percentile nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and interest in existing dwellings. Recent development has consisted entirely of detached dwellings, maintaining the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers.

The estimated population per dwelling approval is 466 people. Population forecasts indicate Sarina will gain 1,484 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Sarina has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Area infrastructure significantly impacts local performance. Twelve projects identified by AreaSearch may affect the region. Notable initiatives include Ozcare Sarina Aged Care Expansion, Anzac Street Sarina Railway Crossing, Central Village Sarina, and Pacific Parks Estate. Relevant projects are detailed below.

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Employment performance in Sarina has been broadly consistent with national averages

Sarina has a balanced workforce with representation from both white and blue collar jobs. The manufacturing and industrial sectors are strongly represented. As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 3.8%.

Over the past year, there was an estimated employment growth of 4.2%. In Sarina, 6,310 residents are currently employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.3% lower than Rest of Qld's rate of 4.1%. The workforce participation rate is similar to Rest of Qld's 65.7%. According to Census responses, only 7.9% of residents work from home.

Key industries for employment among Sarina residents are mining, transport, postal & warehousing, and health care & social assistance. Mining has a particularly notable concentration with employment levels at 4.4 times the regional average. Conversely, health care & social assistance shows lower representation at 9.6% compared to the regional average of 16.1%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 4.2%, while labour force increased by 4.4%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.2 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of Qld recorded employment growth of 1.7% and labour force growth of 2.1%, with an increase in unemployment of 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, published in May-25, project national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Sarina's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by approximately 5.0% over five years and 11.4% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023, Sarina SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $61,318 and an average income of $75,658. These figures are high compared to national levels of $53,146 and $66,593 for Rest of Qld respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since financial year ended June 2023, estimated median income as of September 2025 would be approximately $67,395 and average income would be around $83,156. According to the Census conducted in August 2021, household, family, and personal incomes in Sarina rank modestly, between the 42nd and 52nd percentiles. Income distribution data shows that 31.5% of Sarina's population (3,929 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to regional levels where 31.7% occupy this range. After accounting for housing costs, residents retain 87.2% of their income, indicating strong purchasing power.

Sarina is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Sarina's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, was 93.5% houses and 6.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Non-Metro Qld had a higher percentage of other dwellings at 23.6%. Sarina's home ownership rate was 37.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.9% and rented ones at 22.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Sarina was $1,733, higher than Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,655. Median weekly rent in Sarina was $300, lower than Non-Metro Qld's figure of $345. Nationally, Sarina's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Sarina has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 76.3% of all households, including 31.4% couples with children, 34.5% couples without children, and 9.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 23.7%, with lone person households at 21.3% and group households comprising 2.3%. The median household size is 2.6 people, larger than the Rest of Qld average of 2.5.

Sarina faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 9.7%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 7.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 46.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (7.4%) and certificates (38.6%).

Educational participation is high, with 30.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 12.7% in primary, 10.0% in secondary, and 2.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Sarina has 12 operational public transport stops, all of which are bus services. These stops are served by a single route in total, offering 50 weekly passenger trips combined. The accessibility of these transports is limited, with residents typically residing 5527 meters away from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards daily due to Sarina's residential nature. Car remains the primary mode of transport, used by 93% of residents. On average, there are 1.8 vehicles per dwelling, higher than the regional norm.

Only 7.9% of residents work from home, according to the 2021 Census data, which might be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 7 trips per day across all routes, resulting in roughly 4 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Sarina is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Sarina faces significant health challenges, according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notably high across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover is very high at approximately 57% of the total population (~7,061 people), compared to 52.5% across the rest of Queensland. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (9.1%) and asthma (7.6%). 67.2% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 67.6% across the rest of Queensland. Working-age residents have an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 19.8% of residents aged 65 and over (2,471 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

The latest Census data sees Sarina placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Sarina's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 86.8% of its population being citizens, 92.1% born in Australia, and 97.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Sarina, comprising 57.0% of the population, compared to the regional average of 52.2%. The top three ancestry groups in Sarina are Australian (33.1%), English (29.9%), and Scottish (7.7%).

Notably, Maltese is overrepresented at 1.6% in Sarina compared to the regional average of 0.4%, German is similarly represented at 4.9% versus 4.7%, and Australian Aboriginal is slightly higher at 4.4% compared to the regional average of 3.9%.

Sarina's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Sarina is close to Rest of Qld's average of 41 years, both figures being well above the Australian median of 38 years. Compared to the Rest of Qld average, the 65-74 cohort is notably over-represented at 12.6% locally, while the 75-84 year-olds are under-represented at 6.0%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 10.7% to 11.9%, while the 75 to 84 cohort increased from 4.8% to 6.0%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort declined from 15.1% to 13.4%, and the 5 to 14 group dropped from 13.2% to 11.8%. Population forecasts for Sarina indicate substantial demographic changes by 2041. The 25 to 34 age cohort is projected to expand notably, with an increase of 425 people (30%) from 1,430 to 1,856. Meanwhile, the 55 to 64 and 15 to 24 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.