Point Cook - South

Point Cook - South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Point Cook - South's population is approximately 20,684 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 1,593 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 19,091. The growth is inferred from ABS estimates: Point Cook - South had an estimated resident population of 20,596 in June 2024 and has gained 289 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,195 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Point Cook - South exhibited resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 5.8%, outperforming its SA3 area. Overseas migration primarily drove this population growth, contributing approximately 65.9% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting using weighted aggregation methods from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics predict exceptional growth, placing Point Cook - South in the top 10 percent of national areas. By 2041, the area is expected to expand by approximately 12,225 persons based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 58.7% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Point Cook - South was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Point Cook - South has recorded approximately 86 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 430 homes were approved, with an additional 19 approved in FY26 so far. On average, about 3.6 new residents arrive per year for each dwelling constructed during these years.

This significant demand outpaces supply, typically leading to price growth and increased buyer competition. The average construction cost of new dwellings is around $388,000. In FY26, $6.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's predominantly residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Point Cook - South has notably less development activity, with 73.0% below the regional average per person.

This constrained new construction often reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties. The current development composition consists of 80.0% detached houses and 20.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's suburban identity and appealing to buyers seeking space and family homes. The location has approximately 171 people per dwelling approval, indicating a growing market. Looking ahead, Point Cook - South is projected to grow by 12,137 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If development rates remain constant, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Point Cook - South has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified four projects likely impacting the area: Point Cook South West School Enabling Works, Point Cook Aldi Development, Suburban Rail Loop West, and Mambourin (Black Forest Road North Precinct). The following details those considered most relevant.

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The exceptional employment performance in Point Cook - South places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Point Cook - South has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate is 2.5%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 5.4%. As of September 2025, there are 11,832 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.2% and workforce participation at 74.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries include professional & technical services, health care & social assistance, and finance & insurance. Finance & insurance is particularly strong, with an employment share 2.0 times the regional level.

However, health care & social assistance is under-represented at 11.0%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 14.2%. Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by Census data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 5.4% while the labour force grew by 5.8%, resulting in a slight unemployment rise of 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.0%. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 indicate a projected growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Point Cook - South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 13.9% over ten years, although this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Point Cook - South SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $63,412 and an average income of $78,631. These figures are among the highest in Australia, compared to Greater Melbourne's median of $54,892 and average of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $71,123 (median) and $88,193 (average). According to 2021 Census figures, household, family, and personal incomes in Point Cook - South rank highly nationally, between the 84th and 91st percentiles. Income distribution data shows that 37.9% of locals (7,839 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 category, similar to Melbourne's 32.8%. Economic strength is evident with 40.3% of households earning high weekly incomes exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. High housing costs consume 16.6% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 89th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Point Cook - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Point Cook - South's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 88.1% houses and 12.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Point Cook - South was at 10.5%, with the rest being mortgaged (57.0%) or rented (32.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $1,924. Median weekly rent in Point Cook - South was $410, compared to Melbourne metro's $370. Nationally, Point Cook - South's median monthly mortgage repayment is significantly higher at $2,167 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while median weekly rent is $410, exceeding the national figure of $375.

Point Cook - South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 89.0% of all households, including 64.8% couples with children, 13.6% couples without children, and 9.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 11.0%, consisting of 8.6% lone person households and 2.4% group households. The median household size is 3.4 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.1.

Point Cook - South demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Educational attainment in Point Cook - South is notably high, with 53.4% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications as of the latest data. This compares to national figures of 30.4% and regional SA4 figures of 32.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 31.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 19.4% and graduate diplomas at 3.0%. Vocational pathways account for 21.9% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 11.0% and certificates at 10.9%.

Educational participation is high, with 39.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 18.3% in primary education, 7.4% in secondary education, and 4.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Point Cook - South has 22 active public transport stops operating. These are served by a mix of buses along four different routes. The total weekly passenger trips facilitated by these routes is 1,908.

Transport accessibility in the area is rated as good, with residents on average being located 395 meters from their nearest transport stop. Service frequency across all routes averages 272 trips per day, translating to approximately 86 weekly trips per individual stop.

Point Cook - South's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Point Cook - South demonstrates excellent health outcomes across all age groups, with a very low prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately 59% of its total population (12,286 people) has private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 51.4%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 4.9 and 3.9% of residents respectively. A significant majority, 85.2%, report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 79.2% in Greater Melbourne. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, with 5.4% (1,106 people) compared to Greater Melbourne's 8.3%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are notably strong, closely mirroring the general population's health profile.

Point Cook - South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Point Cook-South has a culturally diverse population, with 62.3% speaking a language other than English at home and 60.8% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Point Cook-South, comprising 29.9%. Hinduism is significantly overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne's average, making up 26.9%.

The top three ancestry groups are Indian (22.4%), Other (21.0%), and Chinese (14.2%). Notably, Samoan (1.0%), Maori (1.2%), and Sri Lankan (0.7%) ethnicities have higher representation than regional averages.

Point Cook - South's young demographic places it in the bottom 15% of areas nationwide

Point Cook - South's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Point Cook - South has a higher percentage of residents aged 35-44 (26.1%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (10.5%). The concentration of residents aged 35-44 is significantly higher than the national average of 14.2%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, residents in Point Cook - South have aged by an average of 1 year, with the median age rising from 33 to 34 years. Specifically, the percentage of residents aged 45-54 has increased from 10.1% to 12.4%, while the percentage of residents aged 15-24 has risen from 8.5% to 10.4%. Conversely, the percentage of residents aged 25-34 has decreased from 12.6% to 10.5%, and the percentage of residents aged 35-44 has dropped from 28.1% to 26.1%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Point Cook - South, with the 45-54 age group projected to grow by 116%, adding 2,969 residents to reach a total of 5,526 residents.