Tumby Bay

Tumby Bay has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

As of November 2025, Tumby Bay's population is estimated at around 1,943 people. This reflects an increase of 162 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,781 people. The increase was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 1,853 as of June 2024, based on the latest ERP data release by the ABS, and an additional 34 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 6.2 persons per square kilometer. Tumby Bay's growth rate of 9.1% since the 2021 census exceeded that of its SA4 region (5.3%) and SA3 area, making it a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 64.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth being positive factors.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for Tumby Bay released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, SA State Government's Regional/LGA projections are adopted with adjustments made using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Future population trends indicate an increase just below the median of regional areas across the nation, with Tumby Bay expected to increase by 234 persons to reach 2,177 by 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an overall increase of 11.2% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Tumby Bay when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Tumby Bay has seen approximately 13 new homes approved annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 69 homes were approved, with an additional 2 approved in FY-26 to date. On average, about 2.2 people have moved to the area per new home constructed over these five financial years, suggesting consistent demand that supports property values.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $471,000, which is higher than regional norms, reflecting quality-focused development. This year alone, there have been $4.7 million in commercial approvals, indicating the area's residential character. Compared to Rest of SA, Tumby Bay records 137.0% more construction activity per person, offering buyers greater choice. Recent building activity comprises entirely detached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character and appealing to those seeking space for families.

Interestingly, developers are constructing more traditional houses than the current mix suggests (85.0% at Census), indicating strong demand for family homes despite density pressures. The location has approximately 166 people per dwelling approval, suggesting an expanding market. Population forecasts indicate Tumby Bay will gain 217 residents by 2041, based on AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, creating favorable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Tumby Bay has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 25thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified six projects likely impacting the area. Notable projects include Green Iron Magnetite Project, CH4 Global Asparagopsis Seaweed EcoPark, Northern Water, among others, as detailed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Tumby Bay ranks among the strongest 15% of areas evaluated nationally

Tumby Bay has a balanced workforce with representation across various sectors. The unemployment rate was 1.6% as of June 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 5.8% over the past year.

There are 844 residents in work, with an unemployment rate of 3.0%, below Rest of SA's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation is at 47.6%, compared to Rest of SA's 54.1%. Employment is concentrated in agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. The area has a particular employment specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level.

Manufacturing shows lower representation at 2.4% versus the regional average of 9.3%. Employment opportunities appear limited locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. During the year to June 2025, employment levels increased by 5.8%, and labour force increased by 6.3%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of SA experienced an employment decline of 1.2% and labour force growth of 0.1%, with a 1.2 percentage point rise in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tumby Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Tumby Bay's median income among taxpayers is $41,685. The average income in Tumby Bay during this period was $51,303. Both figures are below the national averages. In comparison, Rest of SA had a median income of $46,889 and an average of $56,582. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.83% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Tumby Bay's median income would be approximately $47,033 by September 2025, with the average estimated at around $57,885 during the same period. Census 2021 income data indicates that household, family and personal incomes in Tumby Bay all fall within the 5th to 14th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals that the largest segment of residents, comprising 34.2%, earn between $400 and $799 weekly, with a total of 664 residents falling into this bracket. This contrasts with metropolitan regions where the $1,500 to $2,999 bracket leads at 27.5%. The prevalence of lower-income residents in Tumby Bay is evident, with 41.3% earning less than $800 per week, suggesting constrained household budgets across much of this suburb. Despite modest housing costs that allow for the retention of 89.1% of income, Tumby Bay's total disposable income ranks at just the 10th percentile nationally.

Tumby Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Tumby Bay, as per the latest Census, consisted of 84.6% houses and 15.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro SA had 75.9% houses and 24.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tumby Bay was at 53.7%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (23.1%) or rented (23.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Tumby Bay was $1,200, higher than Non-Metro SA's average of $1,170. The median weekly rent figure in Tumby Bay was recorded at $220, compared to Non-Metro SA's $195. Nationally, Tumby Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Tumby Bay features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 61.7% of all households, including 16.5% couples with children, 37.8% couples without children, and 6.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 38.3%, with lone person households at 37.0% and group households making up 2.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.0 people, which is smaller than the Rest of SA average of 2.3.

Tumby Bay faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.2%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 10.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 36.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 8.5% and certificates at 28.1%.

A total of 20.1% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 8.7% in primary, 6.3% in secondary, and 1.5% in tertiary education. Tumby Bay Area School serves Tumby Bay with an enrollment of 246 students, offering balanced educational opportunities typical of Australian schools (ICSEA: 981). All one school offers integrated K-12 education for academic continuity.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health performance in Tumby Bay is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Tumby Bay faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Private health cover is low at approximately 47%, covering around 919 people, compared to 50.1% across Rest of SA and a national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (10.8%) and mental health issues (8.5%).

Around 59.3% of residents report no medical ailments, lower than the 65.6% in Rest of SA. Tumby Bay has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 39.9%, with around 775 people, compared to 22.1% in Rest of SA. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are above average, outperforming the general population in health metrics.

The latest Census data sees Tumby Bay placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tumby Bay, surveyed in June 2016, had low cultural diversity with 93.3% of its population born in Australia and 93.4% being citizens. English was the primary language spoken at home by 98.8%. Christianity was the predominant religion, practiced by 49.4%, compared to 43.7% regionally.

The top three ancestry groups were English (35.5%), Australian (34.3%), and Scottish (8.9%). Notably, German ancestry was higher at 6.8% than the regional average of 6.6%. Welsh ancestry was also slightly higher at 0.6%, compared to 0.5% regionally, as was Polish ancestry at 0.7% versus 0.4%.

Tumby Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Tumby Bay's median age is 57 years, which is notably higher than Rest of SA's median age of 47 and significantly exceeds the national average of 38 years. The 65-74 age group is particularly over-represented in Tumby Bay at 19.4%, compared to the Rest of SA average of 12.0% and the national average of 9.4%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 5.4%, compared to the Rest of SA average of 11.8%. Following the Census conducted on 27 August 2021, the 15-24 age group has increased from 6.7% to 8.5% of Tumby Bay's population. Meanwhile, the 25-34 age group has declined from 6.9% to 5.4%, and the 45-54 age group has decreased from 10.5% to 9.0%. According to demographic projections, by 2041, Tumby Bay's population aged 85 and above is expected to increase dramatically, rising from 124 to 265 people, a growth of 140 individuals (113%). The senior residents aged 65 and above will drive 94% of Tumby Bay's population growth by 2041. Conversely, the 25-34 age group is projected to experience a population decline, as is the 65-74 age group.