Tumby Bay

Population growth drivers in Tumby Bay are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validations, the suburb of Tumby Bay's population is estimated at around 1,953 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 172 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,781. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of resident population at 1,804 following examination of ABS ERP data release in June 2024 and additional 34 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level equates to a density ratio of 6.3 persons per square kilometer. Tumby Bay's growth rate of 9.7% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (5.7%) and SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 64.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered and years post-2032, SA State Government's Regional/LGA projections by age category released in 2023 are adopted with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Future population trends project an above median growth for Australia's non-metropolitan areas. The suburb is expected to increase by 285 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 13.3% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Tumby Bay when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Tumby Bay shows around 11 new homes approved annually. From FY-21 to FY-25, approximately 55 homes were approved, with 3 more approved so far in FY-26. On average, 2.8 people moved to the area per new home constructed over these years, indicating strong demand supporting property values.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $471,000, targeting the premium segment with upmarket properties. This financial year has seen $170,000 in commercial approvals, suggesting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Rest of SA, Tumby Bay records 89.0% more construction activity per person. Recent building activity consists entirely of detached dwellings, maintaining the area's low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

Developers are building more traditional houses than the current mix suggests (85.0% at Census), indicating continued strong demand for family homes despite density pressures. The location has approximately 201 people per dwelling approval, suggesting an expanding market. Population forecasts indicate Tumby Bay will gain 259 residents by 2041 based on AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate. Current development patterns suggest new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Tumby Bay has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 18thth percentile nationally

Five projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area's performance: Green Iron Magnetite Project, CH4 Global Asparagopsis Seaweed EcoPark, Cape Hardy Advanced Fuels Precinct.

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The employment environment in Tumby Bay shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Tumby Bay's workforce comprises both white and blue collar jobs across diverse sectors. Its unemployment rate was 2.4% in the year ending September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 4.0%. As of September 2025854 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.9%, lower than Rest of SA's 5.3%.

Workforce participation was similar to Rest of SA's 58.5%. Census data showed that 10.0% of residents worked from home. Key employment sectors include agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Tumby Bay has a particular specialization in construction, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level, but manufacturing shows lower representation at 2.4%.

Employment opportunities appear limited locally based on Census data comparisons. In the year to September 2025, employment levels increased by 4.0% and labour force by 5.3%, raising the unemployment rate by 1.2 percentage points. Rest of SA experienced slower growth with employment increasing by 0.3% and labour force by 2.3%, and an unemployment rate rise of 1.9 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tumby Bay's employment mix suggests local employment growth could be around 6.0% in five years and 12.7% in ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates Tumby Bay's median income among taxpayers is $41,685 and the average is $51,303. These figures are below national averages of $57,098 (median) and $73,315 (average). In South Australia excluding Adelaide (Rest of SA), the median was $48,920 with an average of $58,933. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.8% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for Tumby Bay as of September 2025 would be approximately $45,353 (median) and $55,818 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, household, family, and personal incomes in Tumby Bay fall between the 5th and 14th percentiles nationally. Income analysis shows that the largest segment comprises 667 residents earning $400 - $799 weekly, which is 34.2% of the suburb's population, contrasting with metropolitan regions where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket leads at 27.5%. The prevalence of lower-income residents (41.3% earning under $800/week) suggests constrained household budgets across much of Tumby Bay. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 89.1% income retention, the total disposable income ranks at just the 10th percentile nationally.

Tumby Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Tumby Bay, as per the latest Census, consisted of 84.6% houses and 15.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro SA had 88.5% houses and 11.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tumby Bay was at 53.7%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (23.1%) or rented (23.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Tumby Bay was $1,200, higher than Non-Metro SA's average of $1,153. The median weekly rent figure in Tumby Bay was $220, matching the Non-Metro SA figure. Nationally, Tumby Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Tumby Bay features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 61.7% of all households, including 16.5% couples with children, 37.8% couples without children, and 6.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 38.3%, with lone person households at 37.0% and group households comprising 2.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.0 people, which is smaller than the Rest of SA average of 2.3.

Tumby Bay faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate of 13.2%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%, presents both challenges and opportunities for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 36.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.5%) and certificates (28.1%). A substantial 20.1% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, comprising 8.7% in primary, 6.3% in secondary, and 1.5% in tertiary education.

A substantial 20.1% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 8.7% in primary education, 6.3% in secondary education, and 1.5% pursuing tertiary education.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Tumby Bay's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Tumby Bay's health metrics closely align with national benchmarks, as assessed by AreaSearch using mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are seen at a standard level across both young and old age groups.

Private health cover is low, with approximately 47% of Tumby Bay's total population (~924 people) having it, compared to the national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (10.8%) and mental health issues (8.5%). A total of 59.3% of residents report being free from medical ailments, compared to 62.5% in Rest of SA. Working-age population health challenges include elevated chronic condition rates. Tumby Bay has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 40.2% (785 people), compared to Rest of SA's 27.1%. Senior health outcomes are above average, with national rankings higher than the general population.

The latest Census data sees Tumby Bay placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tumby Bay, as per the census conducted on 27 June 2016, showed lower cultural diversity with 93.3% of its population born in Australia and 93.4% being Australian citizens. The majority, 98.8%, spoke English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, practiced by 49.4% of Tumby Bay's population, compared to 45.2% across the rest of South Australia.

Regarding ancestry, the top three groups were English (35.5%), Australian (34.3%), and Scottish (8.9%). Notably, German ancestry was higher in Tumby Bay at 6.8%, compared to 8.2% regionally, while Welsh stood at 0.6% (vs 0.5%) and Polish at 0.7% (vs 0.4%).

Tumby Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Tumby Bay's median age is 57 years, which is significantly older than Rest of SA's 47 and the national average of 38 years. Compared to the Rest of SA average, Tumby Bay has a notably higher proportion of residents aged 65-74 (19.4%) while those aged 25-34 are under-represented at 4.9%. This concentration in the 65-74 age group is well above the national average of 9.5%. According to the 2021 Census, Tumby Bay's population structure has shifted slightly; the 15 to 24 age group grew from 6.7% to 8.8%, while the 25 to 34 cohort declined from 6.9% to 4.9%. The 45 to 54 age group also decreased, from 10.5% to 9.0%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant changes in Tumby Bay's age structure. The 85+ age cohort is projected to increase dramatically, adding 138 people (an 110% rise) from 124 to 263 residents. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive 92% of population growth, highlighting the trend towards demographic aging in Tumby Bay. Conversely, the 25-34 age group and those aged 0-4 are expected to experience population declines.