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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
Sales Activity
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Population
Tumby Bay has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends
As of May 2026, the estimated population of Tumby Bay is around 1,859 people. This reflects a growth of 78 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,781. The current resident population estimate by AreaSearch is 1,854, based on the latest ERP data release from the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 33 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 6.0 persons per square kilometer. Tumby Bay's growth rate of 4.4% since the 2021 Census exceeds that of both its SA4 region (4.2%) and SA3 area, indicating it as a growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 64.0% to overall population gains in recent periods, with other factors such as overseas migration and natural growth also being positive contributors.
AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, the SA State Government's Regional/LGA projections by age category are adopted, based on 2021 data and released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods from LGA to SA2 levels. By 2041, Tumby Bay is projected to increase its population by 195 persons, reflecting a total increase of 10.2% over the 16-year period based on aggregated SA2-level projections.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
Development
Residential development activity is lower than average in Tumby Bay according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets
AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Tumby Bay shows approximately 10 new homes approved annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 53 homes were approved, with another 6 so far in FY-26. On average, about 0.9 new residents per year are associated with each new home over the past five financial years.
This indicates that supply is meeting or exceeding demand, offering greater buyer choice and potential for population growth beyond projections. The average construction value of new homes is $471,000, suggesting a focus on premium properties. In FY-26, there have been $170,000 in commercial approvals, predominantly reflecting residential development. Compared to the Rest of SA, Tumby Bay has 83.0% more construction activity per person.
Recent development consists solely of detached dwellings, preserving low density and appealing to space-seeking buyers. This trend differs from current patterns (85.0% at Census) but demonstrates ongoing demand for family homes despite increasing density pressures. The area has approximately 212 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low-density market. Population forecasts estimate Tumby Bay will gain 190 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Tumby Bay
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| Lodged | Address | Description | Type | Distance | Status |
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SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
Infrastructure
Tumby Bay has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 19thth percentile nationally
Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects likely to impact this region. Key projects are Green Iron Magnetite Project, CH4 Global Asparagopsis Seaweed EcoPark, Cape Hardy Advanced Fuels Precinct, and Point Boston Peninsula Community Development. Details of these projects follow.
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INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Cape Hardy Advanced Fuels Precinct
The Cape Hardy Advanced Fuels Precinct is a large-scale green hydrogen and ammonia production hub. The project aims to develop up to 10 GW of electrolyser capacity to produce over 5 million tonnes of green ammonia annually. As of April 2026, developer Revera Energy elected to let two land purchase options lapse (Areas B and C), reducing the active project footprint while maintaining a final 469-hectare option (Area A) until June 2027. The precinct remains integrated with the Northern Water Supply project and holds Federal Major Project Status.
Eyre Peninsula Desalination Plant
A reverse osmosis seawater desalination plant under construction at Billy Lights Point on the southern edge of Port Lincoln, designed to secure long-term, climate-independent drinking water for around 35,000 customers across the Eyre Peninsula. The plant will produce 5.3 gigalitres per year (16 megalitres per day), with capacity to expand to 8 gigalitres per year (24 megalitres per day) subject to future approvals. It will supplement the at-risk Uley South groundwater basin and reduce regional reliance on the River Murray. Marine infrastructure includes a 435 metre micro-tunnel beneath the shoreline, currently being excavated by tunnel boring machine 'Janette' to house intake and outfall pipes. A 7 kilometre transfer pipeline linking the plant to the Northside Hill storage tanks is now complete. SA Water is the project owner, with Acciona delivering the reverse osmosis plant and overall construction, McConnell Dowell delivering the marine infrastructure, and Leed Engineering delivering the transfer pipeline. First water is expected by the end of 2026.
Enabling Infrastructure for Hydrogen Production
A national program to coordinate and deploy the enabling infrastructure required to support large-scale renewable hydrogen production across Australia. Building on the 2024 National Hydrogen Strategy and the National Hydrogen Infrastructure Assessment (NHIA), the program aligns electricity transmission, water supply, transport corridors, port and storage infrastructure with Renewable Energy Zones and prospective hydrogen hubs (Bell Bay, Darwin, Eyre Peninsula, Gladstone, Latrobe Valley, Hunter Valley, Pilbara). Two key federal mechanisms underpin delivery. The Hydrogen Headstart program provides up to 4 billion AUD in long-term revenue support via production credits, with Round 2 (2 billion AUD administered by ARENA) opening for Expressions of Interest in October 2025 with EOIs closing 8 December 2025. The Hydrogen Production Tax Incentive (HPTI), legislated through the Future Made in Australia (Production Tax Credits and Other Measures) Act 2025 which received Royal Assent on 14 February 2025, provides an uncapped refundable tax offset of 2 AUD per kilogram of eligible renewable hydrogen for up to 10 years between 1 July 2027 and 30 June 2040 for projects reaching final investment decision by 2030. The HPTI is jointly administered by the ATO and Clean Energy Regulator and requires certification under the Guarantee of Origin scheme. Round 1 of Hydrogen Headstart shortlisted six projects representing more than 3.5 GW of electrolyser capacity, with 814 million AUD ultimately awarded.
SA Water Capital Work Delivery Contracts 2024-28
SA Water's record $3.3 billion capital delivery program for the 2024-28 regulatory period, covering water and wastewater infrastructure across South Australia. The program targets water main replacements, sewerage network upgrades, dam upgrades, water tank refurbishments, and treatment process upgrades across metropolitan and regional areas. A central $1.5 billion component supports the South Australian Premier's Housing Roadmap, expanding network capacity to unlock up to 40,000 new allotments, with major focus on Adelaide's northern growth corridors including Angle Vale, Riverlea, and Roseworthy. Six major framework partners (Fulton Hogan Utilities, John Holland and Guidera O'Connor JV, McConnell Dowell and Diona JV, BMD, Diona, and Leed Engineering and Construction) are delivering works across approximately 120 projects. In Year 1 (to June 2025), $681.6 million in capital was invested. The program runs to June 2028.
CH4 Global Asparagopsis Seaweed EcoPark
The world's first commercial-scale Asparagopsis seaweed production facility, the EcoPark grows and processes the seaweed to produce Methane Tamer feed supplements that reduce methane emissions in livestock by up to 90%. Phase 1 is operational and includes 10 cultivation ponds with a 2 million litre capacity, producing 80 metric tonnes annually, serving 4,500 cattle per day. A planned expansion to 100 ponds will serve 45,000 cattle daily, with long-term potential for 500 ponds.
Northern Water
Northern Water is a large-scale desalination and pipeline project designed to provide a climate-independent water source for South Australia's Upper Spencer Gulf and Far North. The project features a seawater reverse osmosis plant at Mullaquana Station with an initial capacity of 130 ML/day (scalable to 260 ML/day) and a 400km pipeline network connecting Whyalla, Port Augusta, and Olympic Dam. It aims to support the green hydrogen industry and critical mineral mining while reducing reliance on the Great Artesian Basin and River Murray.
Green Iron Magnetite Project
A global-scale magnetite project with 1.2 billion tonnes JORC resource aimed at producing 6 million tonnes per annum of high-quality magnetite concentrate for green iron and steel production. The project is part of South Australia's Green Iron and Steel Strategy and supports decarbonization of the steel industry through Direct Reduction Iron (DRI) processes using renewable energy.
Port Lincoln Housing Strategy Implementation
Comprehensive housing strategy addressing availability and affordability concerns through sustainable residential development, social housing initiatives, and planning reforms to meet growing demand in Port Lincoln region.
Employment
Employment conditions in Tumby Bay remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis
Tumby Bay has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, representing various sectors. Its unemployment rate is 3.1%. Over the past year, employment remained stable at 825 residents.
As of December 2025, Tumby Bay's unemployment rate is 2.7% lower than Regional SA's rate of 5.7%, but workforce participation is lower at 52.2%. According to Census data, only 10.0% of residents work from home. Employment is concentrated in agriculture, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Construction has a particularly strong presence with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.
Manufacturing employs just 2.4% of local workers, below Regional SA's 9.3%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data on working population versus resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels remained stable at 0.0%, while labour force increased by 1.9%, resulting in a 1.9 percentage point rise in unemployment. In contrast, Regional SA saw employment rise by 0.7% and unemployment rise by 2.2 percentage points over the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Tumby Bay's employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to Tumby Bay's employment mix.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Income
Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis
The suburb of Tumby Bay had an income level below the national average in financial year 2023, according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. The median income among taxpayers was $41,685 and the average income stood at $51,303. In comparison, Regional SA's figures were $48,920 and $58,933 respectively. By March 2026, estimates suggest the median income would be approximately $45,924 and the average $56,521, based on a 10.17% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. The 2021 Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Tumby Bay fell between the 5th and 14th percentiles nationally. In Tumby Bay, 34.2% of individuals (635 people) earned within the $400 - $799 bracket, contrasting with the surrounding region where the leading band was $1,500 - $2,999 at 27.5%. A significant proportion, 41.3%, earned below $800 weekly, indicating affordability pressures for many residents. Despite modest housing costs allowing retention of 89.1% of income, Tumby Bay's total disposable income ranked at the 10th percentile nationally.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Housing
Tumby Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership
Dwelling structure in Tumby Bay, as evaluated at the Census 2016, comprised 84.6% houses and 15.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional SA's 88.5% houses and 11.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tumby Bay was at 53.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 23.1% and rented dwellings at 23.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Tumby Bay was $1,200, higher than Regional SA's average of $1,153. Median weekly rent in Tumby Bay was $220, matching Regional SA's figure. Nationally, Tumby Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Household Composition
Tumby Bay features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size
Family households account for 61.7% of all households, including 16.5% that are couples with children, 37.8% that are couples without children, and 6.5% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 38.3%, with lone person households at 37.0% and group households comprising 2.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.0 people, smaller than the Regional SA average of 2.3.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
Local Schools & Education
Tumby Bay faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally
The area's university qualification rate is 13.2%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 10.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 8.5% and certificates at 28.1%. Currently, 20.1% of the population is engaged in formal education, including 8.7% in primary, 6.3% in secondary, and 1.5% in tertiary education.
A substantial 20.1% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 8.7% in primary education, 6.3% in secondary education, and 1.5% pursuing tertiary education.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Nearby Services & Amenities
Transport
No public transport data available for this catchment area.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
Health
Health outcomes in Tumby Bay are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts
Tumby Bay's health indicators show below-average results, according to AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age groups.
Only approximately 47% (~879 people) have private health cover, which is lower than the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (10.8%) and mental health issues (8.5%). Conversely, 59.3% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 62.5% in Regional SA. Working-age population faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. Tumby Bay has a higher proportion of seniors at 40.7% (756 people), compared to Regional SA's 27.1%. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings even higher than the general population.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Cultural Diversity
The latest Census data sees Tumby Bay placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics
Tumby Bay was found to have below average cultural diversity, with 93.3% of its population born in Australia, 93.4% being citizens, and 98.8% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion in Tumby Bay is Christianity, which accounts for 49.4% of the population, compared to 45.2% across Regional SA. In terms of ancestry, the top three represented groups are English (35.5%), Australian (34.3%), and Scottish (8.9%).
Notably, German ancestry is overrepresented in Tumby Bay at 6.8%, compared to 8.2% regionally, while Welsh ancestry stands at 0.6% (vs 0.5%) and Polish at 0.7% (vs 0.4%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
Age
Tumby Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide
Tumby Bay's median age is 57 years, which is significantly older than Regional SA's median age of 47 years and the national average of 38 years. The proportion of residents aged 75-84 in Tumby Bay is notably higher at 14.8% compared to Regional SA's average and well above the national average of 6.1%. Post the 2021 Census, the age group 15-24 has increased from 6.7% to 9.7%, while the 75-84 cohort has risen from 13.4% to 14.8%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group has decreased from 6.9% to 5.4%, and the 45-54 age group has dropped from 10.5% to 9.2%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Tumby Bay's age structure. The 85+ age cohort is projected to grow significantly by 124 people (100%) from 124 to 249. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 94% of population growth, reflecting demographic aging trends. Conversely, the 15-24 and 5-14 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.