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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
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Tumby Bay has an estimated 1,868 residents, up from 1,781 at the 2021 Census — a change of 87 people, or 4.9%. Growth has averaged 0.7% a year over five years. Fewer than ten people live on each square kilometre, across a boundary that takes in surrounding rural land. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
According to AreaSearch's evaluation of broader ABS demographic releases alongside new address validations recorded after the Census, the suburb of Tumby Bay has an estimated population of approximately 1,868 as of Aug 2026. This represents an addition of 87 people (4.9%) compared to the 2021 Census tally of 1,781 people. This estimate draws on an ERP figure of 1,861 derived by AreaSearch following the ABS June 2025 data release, combined with 34 validated new addresses recorded post-Census. With a density of 6.0 persons per square kilometer, the locality offers considerable space per resident.
The suburb of Tumby Bay's 4.9% expansion post-2021 Census outpaced both the broader SA3 area and the SA4 region (4.2%), establishing it as a regional growth outperformer. Population gains were primarily underpinned by net interstate arrivals, which generated roughly 64.0% of recent growth, supplemented by positive additions across overseas arrivals and natural increase. Population projections utilized by AreaSearch apply 2024 ABS/Geoscience Australia models starting from a 2022 baseline for local SA2 districts. In instances where SA2 data is unavailable, or for periods extending beyond 2032, models incorporate the SA State Government's 2023 age-specific Regional/LGA projections (based on 2021 data) via weighted LGA-to-SA2 growth aggregation. Based on these demographic outlooks, growth across the suburb of Tumby Bay is projected to track slightly under the national regional median, with aggregated SA2 figures pointing to an expansion of 211 persons to 2041, translating to an overall rise of 10.9% across the 16-year timeframe.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
72 new dwellings have been approved in Tumby Bay over the past five years, an average of 14 a year. That is 5.9 approvals per 1,000 residents. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 6, well below that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this Suburb (SAL) boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
Analysis of statistical area ABS building approvals by AreaSearch shows the area registering approximately 14 residential building permits annually, accumulating to an estimated 72 homes across the preceding 5 financial years. Within FY-25 to date, 6 residential approvals have been logged. With an average of 1.1 new residents per dwelling built each year across the last 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), construction and local housing requirements remain balanced, supporting steady market conditions alongside an average residential building value of $405,000. Furthermore, commercial approvals recorded this financial year total $170,000, pointing to subdued commercial building activity.
Per capita building activity in the area surpasses Rest of SA by 96.0%, offering prospective purchasers a broad range of options despite a recent moderation in construction volume. Recent building approvals have centered exclusively on freestanding houses, maintaining the neighborhood's low-density layout and appealing to buyers in search of spacious living. This building focus on standalone houses exceeds the current housing profile (85.0% at Census), highlighting ongoing strong demand for detached family properties amid broader densification pressures. A ratio of around 309 people per dwelling approval reflects a distinctly low-density residential environment. Projections indicate the addition of 204 residents by 2041 based on the most recent AreaSearch quarterly release. Under prevailing construction volumes, new residential development is well positioned to absorb anticipated demand, fostering favorable buying environments and potentially enabling population gains beyond existing baseline expectations.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Tumby Bay
Loading development applications…
| Lodged | Address | Description | Type | Distance | Status |
|---|
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks 51 current infrastructure and development projects close to Tumby Bay, worth an estimated $1.28 billion. 18 are already under construction and 15 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, communities, precincts & urban renewal and sports & recreation. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Local economic momentum and demographic outcomes are heavily shaped by planning frameworks, public infrastructure, and major capital works. AreaSearch has highlighted 4 key initiatives likely to influence the district: the Green Iron Magnetite Project, CH4 Global Asparagopsis Seaweed EcoPark, Cape Hardy Advanced Fuels Precinct, and Point Boston Peninsula Community Development.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.
Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Port Lincoln Housing Strategy 2024-2029
The Port Lincoln Housing Strategy 2024-2029 is a comprehensive framework adopted by Council to address housing affordability and supply. Key updates in 2026 include the formal adoption of the 30-year Port Lincoln Master Plan in February, which integrates the strategy's goals for sustainable growth. A landmark land agreement reached in March 2026 for the Western Link Road corridor will unlock undeveloped land for new residential precincts. Council is also progressing with the revocation of community land status for sites like 25 Chapman Street to enable sale for private residential development.
Marina Footbridge Safety Upgrade
Safety upgrade and replacement of control panel on Marina Footbridge to ensure safe pedestrian access between marina and city center, improving connectivity for residents and tourists.
Observation Rise
Premium residential land estate featuring 105 residential allotments with elevated marina views. Located close to the Marina, schools, childcare, tavern and community centre. The estate features two central parks and offers a choice of building allotments with some providing elevated views for observing marina activity.
Port Lincoln Master Plan
Adopted 30-year strategic master plan guiding Port Lincoln's long-term growth, land release, infrastructure investment and future residential, employment and commercial areas. Council adopted the final Port Lincoln Master Plan in February 2026 with minor amendments and authorised next steps for a Complying Change for Priority Area 2 and a Code Amendment for residential and miscellaneous areas identified in the plan.
Port Lincoln Foreshore Redevelopment
A $7.24 million comprehensive foreshore redevelopment featuring public art, all-ages adventure play spaces, sports zone with half-court ball sports and bouldering wall, central plaza for events, upgraded town jetty for charter vessels, and fully accessible public realm upgrades with beach access.
Eyre Peninsula Network Road Upgrades
Major road infrastructure program upgrading roads across the Eyre Peninsula, including the Eyre Highway between Port Augusta and the WA border, new overtaking lanes, junction upgrades, pavement reconstruction, and heavy vehicle rest areas to improve safety and supply chain resilience.
Porter Street, Liverpool Street and Railway Place Intersection Upgrade
Upgrade of the Porter Street, Liverpool Street (Lincoln Highway) and Railway Place intersection including installation of traffic signals, new pedestrian push-button crossing facilities, improved footpaths, and enhanced safety measures for all road users. Part of the Heavy Vehicle Safety and Productivity Program.
Port Lincoln Hospital Redevelopment
Federally funded hospital redevelopment in 2015 featuring upgraded consulting rooms for visiting specialists, combined Chemotherapy & Renal Dialysis Clinic, and modern 50-bed complex with high dependency unit, maternity services and operating facilities.
813 residents of Tumby Bay are employed, from a labour force of 842. Unemployment sits at 3.3%, with participation at 51.2%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 6.0% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. The working-day population is estimated at 1,523, about 82% of the resident population, so more people leave the area for work than travel in. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
The local labor pool features an even distribution across blue-collar and white-collar roles across diverse sectors, alongside an unemployment rate of 3.3% derived from AreaSearch statistical area aggregations. As of March 2026, employed residents count 813 individuals, and the jobless rate sits 2.1% lower than the 5.5% observed across Regional SA; however, the local participation rate of 51.2% trails the Regional SA benchmark of 58.3%. Census figures show that 10.0% of local workers worked remotely, although this may have been influenced by pandemic-era movement restrictions. Primary employment sectors for local workers include retail trade, health care & social assistance, and agriculture, forestry & fishing.
The local economy exhibits an elevated concentration in construction, where the workforce proportion is 1.3 times the regional average. Conversely, manufacturing comprises only 2.4% of resident employment relative to 9.3% across the wider region. Comparing the Census working population against resident worker counts suggests limited local job capacity within the immediate district. Examining ABS and SALM data over the 12 months leading to March 2026, the local labor market registered a 1.4% contraction in the labor force alongside a 3.4% reduction in employed persons, leading to a 2.0 percentage point increase in unemployment. In contrast, Regional SA experienced a 1.2% rise in employment, a 2.6% expansion in its labor force, and a 1.4 percentage point uptick in unemployment. National outlooks from Jobs and Skills Australia as of Mar-26 provide context for prospective local job demand across five- and ten-year intervals. Nationally, employment is projected to rise by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though trajectories diverge across individual sectors. Applying these sectoral forecasts to the local workforce composition implies an employment growth potential of 6.0% over five years and 12.7% over ten years (representing an illustrative weighted calculation without adjustments for local population projections).
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Tumby Bay is $1,058 a week (about $55,000 a year), with median personal income at $624 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $41,685 a year against an average of $51,303. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
ATO postcode records for financial year 2023 compiled by AreaSearch show local earnings tracking below nationwide benchmarks, featuring a median income of $41,685 and an average of $51,303. These levels compare with Regional SA benchmarks of $48,920 (median) and $58,933 (average). Factoring in a Wage Price Index uplift of 10.17% following financial year 2023, updated estimates reach roughly $45,924 for median earnings and $56,521 on average as of March 2026. Across personal, family, and household measures in the Census, local income falls into the 5th to 14th percentiles across Australia.
The most common income tier contains 34.2% of individuals receiving $400 - 799 weekly (638 residents), diverging from regional patterns where 27.5% earn between $1,500 - 2,999 per week. With 41.3% of earners receiving under $800/week, household spending capacity is comparatively limited. Even with relatively low housing outlays leaving 89.1% of income unspent on shelter, total disposable income sits at the 10th percentile nationally.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Tumby Bay had 802 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 85% detached houses and 6% apartments. 23% are owned with a mortgage, 23% rented and 54% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $220 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,200 a month. Rent absorbs 20.8% of household income here and mortgage repayments 26.2%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
At the most recent Census, the local housing stock was divided between separate houses at 84.6% and non-detached or other formats (such as apartments and semi-detached properties) at 15.4%, compared to 88.5% standalone houses and 11.5% other dwelling types throughout Regional SA. Outright home ownership reached 53.7%, substantially exceeding the regional benchmark, while 23.1% of homes carried a mortgage and 23.2% were occupied by renters. Median monthly mortgage outlays were $1,200 (against $1,153 across Regional SA), while median weekly rental payments stood at $220, matching the Regional SA figure of $220.
Compared to Australian benchmarks, typical mortgage repayments sit well below the nationwide median of $1,863, and weekly rents track considerably lower than the national figure of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Tumby Bay counted 802 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 2.0 people each. 17% are couples with children, fewer than in 93% of areas nationally, against 38% couples without children. 37% of households are people living alone, and families average 2.3 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Family units constitute the majority of households at 61.7%, consisting of couples without children (37.8%), couples with children (16.5%), and single parent families (6.5%). Non-family living arrangements account for the remaining 38.3%, comprising single-person households (37.0%) and group residences (2.2%). The median household size is 2.0 people, compared to the Regional SA standard of 2.3.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
13.2% of adults in Tumby Bay hold a university qualification, including 10.6% with a bachelor degree and 1.4% with postgraduate qualifications, lower than 89% of areas nationally. A further 28.1% hold a vocational qualification. 1 school serves the area, with 246 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 981 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
Higher education rates show significant disparity relative to nationwide benchmarks, with 13.2% of local residents holding a university degree compared to 30.4% across Australia, presenting clear scope for educational development initiatives. Bachelor level awards account for 10.6%, with postgraduate qualifications at 1.4% and graduate diplomas at 1.2%. Vocational education is common, with 36.6% of residents aged 15+ possessing trade or technical credentials, including certificates (28.1%) and advanced diplomas (8.5%). Around 20.1% of residents are actively engaged in formal study. This comprises 8.7% attending primary schools, 6.3% enrolled in secondary education, and 1.5% undertaking tertiary studies.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Getting around Tumby Bay means driving: households keep an average of 1.4 vehicles, and scheduled services reach only a handful of stops. Service data is built from operators' published GTFS timetables; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Public transport analysis identifies 1 active transit stop within the area. This location is served by 1 transit route, providing a total of 10 passenger services per week. Transport connectivity is constrained, with residents situated an average of 2371 meters from the nearest stop. Given the area's residential profile, outward commuting is standard; private vehicles account for 92% of travel to work, while 6% of commuters walk. Motor vehicle availability stands at an average of 1.4 per household. Approximately 10.0% of workers worked from home according to the 2021 Census, a figure potentially influenced by pandemic conditions.
Transit service frequency across all routes averages 1 trips per day, translating to roughly 10 weekly departures for each designated stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
59.3% of residents in Tumby Bay report no long-term health condition. 8.9% need daily assistance with core activities, and 47.3% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 5.8 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
AreaSearch health metrics indicate lower-than-average outcomes locally across mortality and long-term health issues, with common ailments exhibiting slightly elevated rates across both younger and older cohorts, alongside a low private health insurance coverage rate of around 47% (~884 people) compared to 55.7% nationally. Arthritis (10.8%) and mental health conditions (8.5%) represent the most frequently reported diagnoses in the locality, while 59.3% of residents reported having no long-term medical conditions, compared to 62.5% in Regional SA. Working-age residents face elevated rates of chronic illness. Residents aged 65 and over represent 40.9% of the population (764 people), well above the 27.1% share recorded regionally.
Health measures among older cohorts perform comparatively well, achieving higher relative standings across nationwide benchmarks than the broader local community.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Tumby Bay is largely Australian-born, at 93.3% of residents, with 1.2% speaking a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are English (35.5%) and Australian (34.3%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Cultural diversity measures indicate a relatively uniform demographic profile, with 93.3% of residents born in Australia, 93.4% holding Australian citizenship, and 98.8% speaking exclusively English at home. Christianity is the predominant faith, accounting for 49.4% of the population, compared to 45.2% in Regional SA. Regarding reported parental heritage, the leading ancestral backgrounds are English (35.5%), Australian (34.3%), and Scottish (8.9%). Other cultural heritages show varying representations, with German ancestry recorded at 6.8% locally (against 8.2% across the wider region), Welsh at 0.6% (compared to 0.5%), and Polish at 0.7% (compared to 0.4%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Tumby Bay is 57, older than 98% of areas nationally. 15.8% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The local age profile clearly mirrors its status as a coastal retirement and lifestyle destination. As of August 2026, AreaSearch figures indicate that 40.9% of residents are aged 65+, compared to 27.1% across Regional SA, while younger to middle-aged adults (25 - 44) make up 15.4% against a regional benchmark of 21.4%. The median age is estimated at 57 as at August 2026, remaining unchanged from the 2021 Census, which sat 10 years above the Regional SA median of 47 and well above the nationwide Census median of 38. The most prominent shift since the Census occurred in the 45 - 64 age bracket, decreasing from 24.8% to an estimated 22.0%.
By 2041, older and retiree demographics are projected to drive local growth, adding 215 residents (28%) to reach 979, while child, young adult, and 25 - 44 cohorts are expected to decrease.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Tumby Bay
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Aug 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the Suburb (SAL) boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | Aug 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to Aug 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | Aug 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to Aug 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Aug 2026 last month headline measures · Jun 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Aug 2026 last month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Aug 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, Local governments Daily | May 2026 4 months ago all 2 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated May 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 6 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Aug 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Jul 2026 2 months ago all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 34 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for Aug 2026, not a 2021 count (1,781 at the 2021 Census → 1,868 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to Aug 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (SAL41476). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.