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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
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Tumby Bay has an estimated 1,859 residents, up from 1,781 at the 2021 Census — a change of 78 people, or 4.4%. Growth has averaged 0.6% a year over five years. Fewer than ten people live on each square kilometre, across a boundary that takes in surrounding rural land. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
Analysis of ABS demographic updates for the wider region, alongside new address points validated by AreaSearch since the Census, indicates the population of the suburb of Tumby Bay is approximately 1,859 as of May 2026. This represents a growth of 78 residents (4.4%) from the 2021 Census, which documented a population of 1,781 individuals. The shift is calculated from a resident population of 1,854, which was estimated by AreaSearch using the latest ERP data release from the ABS (June 2025) and an extra 33 validated new addresses since the Census date.
This population level translates to a density of 6.0 persons per square kilometer, indicating a setting with generous personal space. The 4.4% expansion rate of the suburb of Tumby Bay since the 2021 census was higher than that of the SA4 region (4.2%) and the SA3 area, positioning it as a local growth leader. Population increases in the area were chiefly driven by interstate migration, which accounted for approximately 64.0% of total population growth in recent times, though all indicators including overseas migration and natural growth registered positive contributions. AreaSearch implements ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, which were published in 2024 using 2022 as the base year. For SA2 areas lacking this information, and for any years after 2032, regional and LGA projections by age group from the SA State Government, published in 2023 and based on 2021 records, are used with adjustments applied via a weighted aggregation method of population growth from LGA to SA2 tiers. Looking at upcoming demographic changes, population growth slightly below the median of regional localities nationwide is anticipated, with the suburb of Tumby Bay projected to add 195 individuals by 2041 according to aggregated SA2-level forecasts, showing a total growth of 10.2% over the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
41 new dwellings have been approved in Tumby Bay over the past five years, an average of 8 a year. That is 4.5 approvals per 1,000 residents. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 5, well below that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this Suburb (SAL) boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
Based on AreaSearch assessments of ABS building approvals allocated from statistical areas, the suburb of Tumby Bay has averaged about 8 residential approvals annually, amounting to an estimated 41 dwellings over the preceding 5 financial years. Thus far in FY-26, 5 approvals have been documented. With an average of 1.4 new residents per year arriving for each new dwelling over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply and demand seem well-aligned, fostering stable market conditions, while new dwellings carry an average construction value of $471,000, showing that developers are focusing on upmarket, premium properties.
There has also been $170,000 in commercial development approvals recorded this financial year, which points to a low level of commercial construction activity. Compared to Rest of SA, the suburb of Tumby Bay exhibits somewhat elevated building volumes (42.0% above the regional average per capita over the 5 year period), offering buyer choice while helping sustain existing property values, although building rates have decelerated recently. Furthermore, all recent construction has consisted of detached houses, maintaining the low-density profile of the locality with a focus on stand-alone homes that appeal to buyers seeking space. New building activity shows a stronger preference for stand-alone housing than historical data indicates (85.0% at Census), showing that demand for family residences remains strong despite rising density pressures. Having an estimated 618 residents in the area per dwelling approval highlights a quiet development climate with low activity. Demographic projections show that the suburb of Tumby Bay will add 190 residents by 2041 (calculated from the most recent AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current building rates, residential supply is expected to satisfy demand, creating positive conditions for buyers and potentially allowing growth to outpace current forecasts.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Tumby Bay
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| Lodged | Address | Description | Type | Distance | Status |
|---|
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks 51 current infrastructure and development projects close to Tumby Bay, worth an estimated $1.28 billion. 18 are already under construction and 15 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, communities, precincts & urban renewal and sports & recreation. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Local infrastructure projects, major developments, and planning changes play a significant role in shaping regional performance. AreaSearch has identified a total of 4 projects that are expected to influence the area. Principal projects include the Green Iron Magnetite Project, the CH4 Global Asparagopsis Seaweed EcoPark, the Cape Hardy Advanced Fuels Precinct, and the Point Boston Peninsula Community Development, with the subsequent list outlining the most relevant initiatives.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.
Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Port Lincoln Housing Strategy 2024-2029
The Port Lincoln Housing Strategy 2024-2029 is a comprehensive framework adopted by Council to address housing affordability and supply. Key updates in 2026 include the formal adoption of the 30-year Port Lincoln Master Plan in February, which integrates the strategy's goals for sustainable growth. A landmark land agreement reached in March 2026 for the Western Link Road corridor will unlock undeveloped land for new residential precincts. Council is also progressing with the revocation of community land status for sites like 25 Chapman Street to enable sale for private residential development.
Marina Footbridge Safety Upgrade
Safety upgrade and replacement of control panel on Marina Footbridge to ensure safe pedestrian access between marina and city center, improving connectivity for residents and tourists.
Observation Rise
Premium residential land estate featuring 105 residential allotments with elevated marina views. Located close to the Marina, schools, childcare, tavern and community centre. The estate features two central parks and offers a choice of building allotments with some providing elevated views for observing marina activity.
Port Lincoln Master Plan
Adopted 30-year strategic master plan guiding Port Lincoln's long-term growth, land release, infrastructure investment and future residential, employment and commercial areas. Council adopted the final Port Lincoln Master Plan in February 2026 with minor amendments and authorised next steps for a Complying Change for Priority Area 2 and a Code Amendment for residential and miscellaneous areas identified in the plan.
Port Lincoln Foreshore Redevelopment
A $7.24 million comprehensive foreshore redevelopment featuring public art, all-ages adventure play spaces, sports zone with half-court ball sports and bouldering wall, central plaza for events, upgraded town jetty for charter vessels, and fully accessible public realm upgrades with beach access.
Eyre Peninsula Network Road Upgrades
Major road infrastructure program upgrading roads across the Eyre Peninsula, including the Eyre Highway between Port Augusta and the WA border, new overtaking lanes, junction upgrades, pavement reconstruction, and heavy vehicle rest areas to improve safety and supply chain resilience.
Porter Street, Liverpool Street and Railway Place Intersection Upgrade
Upgrade of the Porter Street, Liverpool Street (Lincoln Highway) and Railway Place intersection including installation of traffic signals, new pedestrian push-button crossing facilities, improved footpaths, and enhanced safety measures for all road users. Part of the Heavy Vehicle Safety and Productivity Program.
Port Lincoln Hospital Redevelopment
Federally funded hospital redevelopment in 2015 featuring upgraded consulting rooms for visiting specialists, combined Chemotherapy & Renal Dialysis Clinic, and modern 50-bed complex with high dependency unit, maternity services and operating facilities.
808 residents of Tumby Bay are employed, from a labour force of 836. Unemployment sits at 3.2%, with participation at 51.2%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 6.0% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. The working-day population is estimated at 1,516, about 82% of the resident population, so more people leave the area for work than travel in. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
The suburb of Tumby Bay has a balanced workforce distributed across white-collar and blue-collar roles, with a diverse mix of industries and an unemployment rate of only 3.2%, based on AreaSearch compilations of statistical area data. As of March 2026808 residents are employed, and the unemployment rate is 2.2% lower than the Regional SA rate of 5.5%, whereas workforce participation is notably lower (51.2% compared to 58.4% in Regional SA). Census records show that a minor 10.0% of workers operated from home, though the effects of Covid-19 restrictions should be kept in mind.
The primary employment fields for residents are agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. The locality shows a particularly strong concentration in construction, where employment is 1.3 times the regional average. Conversely, manufacturing accounts for only 2.4% of the local workforce, compared to 9.3% in Regional SA. The area seems to provide relatively few local jobs, as shown by comparing the count of the Census working population against the resident population. Based on AreaSearch examinations of SALM and ABS statistics aggregated from wider geographic areas, the labor force shrank by 1.6% alongside a 3.7% drop in employment during the year to March 2026, which pushed the unemployment rate up by 1.9 percentage points. This stands in contrast to Regional SA, which saw employment rise by 1.2%, the labor force expand by 2.6%, and the unemployment rate increase by 1.4 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia published in May-25 can give further context on prospective demand within the suburb of Tumby Bay. These forecasts, spanning five and ten-year horizons, have been aligned with the local employment structure to project growth trends. While national employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, expansion rates vary widely across different sectors. Applying these industry projections to the local employment profile suggests that employment in the suburb of Tumby Bay would rise by 6.0% over five years and 12.7% over ten years (note that this is a basic weighted extrapolation for demonstration purposes and does not incorporate local demographic forecasts).
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Tumby Bay is $1,058 a week (about $55,000 a year), with median personal income at $624 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $41,685 a year against an average of $51,303. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
According to AreaSearch's compilation of the most recent postcode level ATO statistics released for financial year 2023, the suburb of Tumby Bay had a median taxpayer income of $41,685 and an average income of $51,303. These figures sit below national averages and compare to median and average levels of $48,920 and $58,933 across Regional SA. Adjusted for a Wage Price Index rise of 10.17% since financial year 2023, current projections estimate these figures at approximately $45,924 (median) and $56,521 (average) as of March 2026. Data from the 2021 Census shows that household, family, and individual incomes in the suburb of Tumby Bay are positioned between the 5th and 14th percentiles nationally.
Income distribution figures show that 34.2% of the population (635 individuals) earn within the $400 - 799 weekly range, differing from the wider region where the $1,500 - 2,999 range is the most common at 27.5%. The concentration of 41.3% of residents in weekly brackets below $800 highlights the economic difficulties experienced by a large portion of the community. Even though housing expenses are low, leaving 89.1% of income retained, overall disposable income sits at only the 10th percentile nationally.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Tumby Bay had 802 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 85% detached houses and 6% apartments. 23% are owned with a mortgage, 23% rented and 54% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $220 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,200 a month. Rent absorbs 20.8% of household income here and mortgage repayments 26.2%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
The mix of dwelling types in the suburb of Tumby Bay at the latest Census consisted of 84.6% stand-alone houses and 15.4% other dwelling types (such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and alternative housing), compared to 88.5% houses and 11.5% other dwellings in Regional SA. Home ownership rates in the suburb of Tumby Bay were much higher than in Regional SA, standing at 53.7%, while the remaining properties were either mortgaged (23.1%) or rented (23.2%). The median monthly mortgage payment in the area was higher than the Regional SA average at $1,200, whereas the median weekly rent was recorded at $220, compared to Regional SA figures of $1,153 and $220.
Across the country, mortgage payments in the suburb of Tumby Bay are much lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents are also well below the national median of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Tumby Bay counted 802 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 2.0 people each. 17% are couples with children, fewer than in 93% of areas nationally, against 38% couples without children. 37% of households are people living alone, and families average 2.3 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Families make up the majority of households at 61.7%, consisting of couples with children at 16.5%, couples without children at 37.8%, and single parent families at 6.5%. Non-family living arrangements account for the remaining 38.3%, with single-person households representing 37.0% and group households making up 2.2% of the total. The median household size of 2.0 residents is smaller than the Regional SA average of 2.3.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
13.2% of adults in Tumby Bay hold a university qualification, including 10.6% with a bachelor degree and 1.4% with postgraduate qualifications, lower than 89% of areas nationally. A further 28.1% hold a vocational qualification. 1 school serves the area, with 246 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 981 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
The locality presents educational hurdles, with university graduation rates (13.2% of residents) sitting significantly below the Australian average of 30.4%. This highlights a clear opportunity for focused educational programs. Bachelor degrees are the most common higher qualification at 10.6%, followed by postgraduate degrees (1.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Practical and vocational skills are prominent, with 36.6% of residents aged 15+ holding a vocational qualification, consisting of advanced diplomas (8.5%) and certificates (28.1%). A significant 20.1% of the local population is enrolled in formal studies. This includes 8.7% of residents in primary schooling, 6.3% in secondary schooling, and 1.5% undertaking tertiary education.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Getting around Tumby Bay means driving: households keep an average of 1.4 vehicles, and no scheduled public transport appears in the current timetable feeds. Service data is built from operators' published GTFS timetables; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
59.3% of residents in Tumby Bay report no long-term health condition. 8.9% need daily assistance with core activities, and 47.3% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 5.8 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Based on AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality data and chronic illness rates, health indicators point to below-average outcomes in the suburb of Tumby Bay, with common illnesses slightly more frequent than average across both younger and older demographics, and the level of private health insurance coverage is notably low at roughly 47% of the population (~879 people) compared to a national average of 55.7%. The most common medical diagnoses in the area were arthritis and mental health challenges, affecting 10.8 and 8.5% of the population, respectively, while 59.3% of residents reported having no medical conditions, compared to 62.5% across Regional SA.
The working-age demographic faces significant health challenges with elevated chronic illness rates. The suburb of Tumby Bay has 40.7% of its population aged 65 and over (756 people), which is higher than the 27.1% recorded in Regional SA. Seniors in the area exhibit above-average health outcomes, with national rankings that exceed those of the local population as a whole.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Tumby Bay is largely Australian-born, at 93.3% of residents, with 1.2% speaking a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are English (35.5%) and Australian (34.3%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
The suburb of Tumby Bay is below the national average for cultural diversity, with 93.3% of residents born in Australia, 93.4% holding citizenship, and 98.8% speaking only English at home. The predominant religion is Christianity, representing 49.4% of the population in the suburb of Tumby Bay, compared to 45.2% across Regional SA. Looking at ancestral backgrounds (parents' country of birth), the three largest groups in the suburb of Tumby Bay are English at 35.5%, Australian at 34.3%, and Scottish at 8.9% of the population. There are also clear differences in the representation of other backgrounds, with German ancestry at 6.8% in the suburb of Tumby Bay (compared to 8.2% across the region), Welsh at 0.6% (compared to 0.5% regionally), and Polish at 0.7% (compared to 0.4% regionally).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Tumby Bay is 57, older than 98% of areas nationally. 15.1% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The median age of 57 years in the suburb of Tumby Bay is older than the Regional SA average of 47 and significantly higher than the national median of 38 years. Compared to the Regional SA average, the 75 - 84 age bracket is highly represented at 14.8% locally, while young adults aged 25 - 34 are under-represented at 5.4%. This 75 - 84 cohort concentration is much higher than the national level of 6.1%. Since the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age bracket has increased from 6.7% to 9.7% of the population, and the 75 to 84 cohort rose from 13.4% to 14.8%.
In contrast, the 25 to 34 age bracket fell from 6.9% to 5.4%, and the 45 to 54 demographic dropped from 10.5% to 9.2%. Looking forward to 2041, demographic projections show major changes in the age structure of the suburb of Tumby Bay, with the 85+ cohort expected to expand by 124 people (100%) from 124 to 249. Older residents aged 65 and over will account for 94% of total population growth, highlighting the aging trend, while the 15 to 24 and 5 to 14 demographics are projected to shrink.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Tumby Bay
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Aug 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the Suburb (SAL) boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to May 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to May 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Jun 2026 2 months ago headline measures · May 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Aug 2026 this month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Aug 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, Local governments Daily | May 2026 3 months ago all 2 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated May 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 5 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Aug 2026 this month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Jul 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 33 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for May 2026, not a 2021 count (1,781 at the 2021 Census → 1,859 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to May 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (SAL41476). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.