Prospect Vale

An assessment of population growth drivers in Prospect Vale reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of November 2025, Prospect Vale's population is estimated at around 5,769. This reflects an increase of 336 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,433. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 5,546 residents following examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2024, and validated new addresses totalling 215 since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 577 persons per square kilometer. Prospect Vale's growth rate of 6.2% since the 2021 census exceeded both its SA3 area (3.9%) and the state average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, Tasmania State Government's Regional/LGA projections were used, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Considering these projections, Prospect Vale's population is expected to decline by 131 persons by 2041. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, notably a projected increase of 211 people in the 75 to 84 age group.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Prospect Vale recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Prospect Vale averaged approximately 29 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 149 homes. As of FY-26, 14 approvals have been recorded. Between FY-21 and FY-25, an average of 1.1 people moved to the area per dwelling built, suggesting a balanced supply-demand ratio. However, this figure has moderated to 0.1 people per dwelling over the past two financial years. New homes are being constructed at an average value of $524,000, indicating quality construction.

In FY-26, commercial approvals valued at $697,000 have been registered, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to the rest of Tasmania, Prospect Vale has slightly more development, with 23.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period. This maintains good buyer choice while supporting existing property values.

Building activity shows 67.0% detached dwellings and 33.0% attached dwellings, offering a mix of medium-density options across price brackets. With around 223 people per dwelling approval, Prospect Vale exhibits characteristics of a low-density area. Given the expected stable or declining population, housing pressure in Prospect Vale is likely to remain reduced, potentially presenting buying opportunities.

Prospect Vale has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 22ndth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified six projects likely to impact the area. Key projects are Country Club Estate, McDonald's Prospect Vale Drive-Thru Restaurant, Prospect Vale - Blackstone Heights Structure Plan, and Prospect Vale Park Facilities Upgrade. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment positions Prospect Vale ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

Prospect Vale has a skilled workforce with notable representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 2.4%, as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of June 2025, 2,769 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.6% lower than Rest of Tas.'s rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation is similar to Rest of Tas., at 55.7%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training, particularly retail trade which has employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average. Agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 1.5% of Prospect Vale's workforce compared to 8.4% in Rest of Tas..

The area may offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data comparing working population and resident population. In the 12-month period ending Jun-25, labour force decreased by 1.6% alongside a 1.8% employment decline, resulting in an unemployment rate rise of 0.1 percentage points. By comparison, Rest of Tas. recorded employment decline of 0.5%, labour force decline of 0.6%, with unemployment falling marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest potential future demand within Prospect Vale. These projections estimate local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, based on industry-specific growth rates applied to Prospect Vale's employment mix.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Prospect Vale's median assessed income in financial year 2022 was $49,325. The average income stood at $62,034 during the same period. In contrast, Rest of Tas.'s median income was $47,358 with an average income of $57,384. By September 2025, estimates suggest a median income of approximately $56,147 and an average income of around $70,613, based on Wage Price Index growth of 13.83% since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Prospect Vale fall between the 18th and 30th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 is dominant, with 28.9% of residents (1,667 people) falling into this category, consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 28.5% in the same category. After housing costs, 85.4% of income remains, ranking at the 20th percentile nationally.

Prospect Vale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Prospect Vale's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 79.8% houses and 20.2% other dwellings (including semi-detached, apartments, and 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Tas.'s figures of 82.1% houses and 17.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Prospect Vale stood at 41.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 32.0% and rented ones at 26.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,430, higher than Non-Metro Tas.'s average of $1,300. Median weekly rent in Prospect Vale was $300, compared to Non-Metro Tas.'s $280. Nationally, Prospect Vale's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,430 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were also lower at $300 compared to the national figure of $375.

Prospect Vale features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 64.6% of all households, including 23.4% couples with children, 29.9% couples without children, and 10.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 35.4%, with lone person households at 33.3% and group households making up 2.1%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Tas. average of 2.3.

The educational profile of Prospect Vale exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 17.6%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 35.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.7%) and certificates (27.0%). Currently, 22.8% of the population is engaged in formal education: 9.0% in primary, 6.4% in secondary, and 3.6% in tertiary education.

Educational facilities seem to be situated outside the immediate area, necessitating families to access schools in neighboring regions.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Prospect Vale has 38 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by a total of 119 different routes, resulting in 10,444 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents to the nearest stop is 199 meters, indicating excellent accessibility.

On average, there are 1,492 trips per day across all routes, which amounts to approximately 274 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Prospect Vale is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Prospect Vale faces significant health challenges, affecting both younger and older residents.

As of approximately mid-2021 (~2,985 people), about 52% of its population had private health cover, slightly lower than the average SA2 area. The most prevalent medical conditions were arthritis (affecting 12.6%) and mental health issues (9.1%), while 59.5% reported having no medical ailments, compared to 63.9% in Rest of Tas.. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over (29.1%, or 1,678 people), than the state average of 19.9%. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges broadly inline with the general population's health profile.

Prospect Vale ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Prospect Vale, when assessed for cultural diversity, showed that a majority of its population is Australian-born and identifies as Australian citizens who primarily speak English at home. Specifically, 87.4% were born in Australia, 92.3% were citizens, and 93.2% spoke English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, with 54.7% of residents identifying as Christian, which is higher than the regional average of 42.3%.

In terms of ancestry, the three most represented groups in Prospect Vale were those of English descent (34.7%), Australian descent (33.3%), and Irish descent (7.8%). Notably, certain ethnic groups had different representations compared to regional averages: Dutch residents made up 1.6% of Prospect Vale's population, Sri Lankan residents comprised 0.2%, and Samoan residents accounted for 0.1%.

Prospect Vale hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Prospect Vale has a median age of 48, which is slightly higher than the Rest of Tas. figure of 45 and well above the national average of 38. The 75-84 age group makes up 11.3% of Prospect Vale's population, compared to 6.0% nationally and 9.2% in the Rest of Tas. The 25-34 cohort is less prevalent at 9.8%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75-84 age group has grown from 10.2% to 11.3%, while the 25-34 cohort has declined from 11.0% to 9.8%. The 45-54 group has also decreased from 12.6% to 11.4%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Prospect Vale's age profile will change significantly. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to grow by 176 people (27%), from 651 to 828. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 68% of total population growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 0-4 and 65-74 cohorts.