Summerhill

Summerhill has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Summerhill's population is estimated at around 3083 as of Nov 2025. This reflects a decrease of 56 people (1.8%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3139 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 3068 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 21 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1364 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by natural growth that contributed approximately 56% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and to estimate growth by age group in the years post-2032, the Tasmania State Government's Regional/LGA projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year, are adopted with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Anticipating future population dynamics, over this period, projections indicate a decline in overall population, with Summerhill's population expected to decline by 104 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 75 to 84 age group, which is projected to increase by 38 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Summerhill according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Summerhill has had around 15 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 76 homes. As of FY26, there have been six approvals recorded. The average new resident count per year per dwelling constructed between FY21 and FY25 is 0.7. This suggests that construction pace matches or exceeds demand, offering buyers more options while supporting population growth at an average expected construction cost value of $421,000 per dwelling.

In FY26, there have been $2.0 million in commercial approvals registered, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Compared to the Rest of Tas., Summerhill has shown moderately higher development activity, with 13.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years. This maintains good buyer choice while supporting existing property values despite recent slowdowns in building activity.

New building activity consists of 82.0% detached houses and 18.0% attached dwellings, sustaining Summerhill's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space, at around 292 people per approval. Given stable or declining population forecasts, Summerhill may experience less housing pressure, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Summerhill has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 22ndth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified two projects likely impacting the area: Prospect Vale Park Facilities Upgrade, McDonald's Prospect Vale Drive-Thru Restaurant, Greater Launceston Water Improvements, and Prospect Vale - Blackstone Heights Structure Plan. The following details those most relevant.

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Employment performance in Summerhill exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Summerhill has a balanced workforce encompassing white and blue collar jobs, with essential services sectors well represented. As of June 2025, the unemployment rate is 2.7%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

In Summerhill, as of June 2025, 1,650 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.2% lower than Rest of Tas.'s rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation in Summerhill stands at 63.3%, exceeding Rest of Tas.'s rate of 55.7%. Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Notably, the area has a strong specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence, with only 1.5% of employment compared to the regional average of 8.4%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, Summerhill's labour force decreased by 1.3% and employment declined by 1.6%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of Tas., where employment fell by 0.5%, labour force contracted by 0.6%, and unemployment fell marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest that over five years, national employment is projected to expand by 6.6% and by 13.7% over ten years. However, growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Summerhill's employment mix indicates a potential local employment increase of 6.7% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localised population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Summerhill's median income among taxpayers in financial year 2022 was $50,853. The average income stood at $63,956 during the same period. According to AreaSearch data aggregated from ATO figures, Rest of Tas.'s median and average incomes were $47,358 and $57,384 respectively in financial year 2022. Based on a Wage Price Index growth rate of 13.83% since that year, Summerhill's estimated median income as of September 2025 is approximately $57,886, while the average is projected to be around $72,801. Census 2021 data shows Summerhill's incomes rank modestly, with household, family, and personal incomes all between the 22nd and 34th percentiles. The largest income segment in Summerhill comprises 33.3% of residents earning between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, aligning with the metropolitan region where this cohort represents 28.5%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Summerhill, with only 84.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 23rd percentile.

Summerhill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Summerhill's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 82.1% houses and 17.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is similar to Non-Metro Tas., which also had 82.1% houses and 17.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Summerhill was 32.3%, with the rest being mortgaged (40.2%) or rented (27.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, matching Non-Metro Tas.'s average. The median weekly rent figure was $295, compared to Non-Metro Tas.'s $280. Nationally, Summerhill's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Summerhill has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 68.7% of all households, including 27.0% couples with children, 25.8% couples without children, and 14.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 31.3%, with lone person households at 28.8% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is larger than the Rest of Tas. average of 2.3.

Summerhill faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 15.0%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 11.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 40.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas (8.8%) and certificates (31.2%).

Educational participation is high at 26.1%, including primary education (11.0%), secondary education (7.5%), and tertiary education (2.6%). Summerdale Primary School serves Summerhill, with an enrollment of 534 students. It offers balanced educational opportunities, typical of Australian schools (ICSEA: 968), focusing exclusively on primary education while surrounding areas provide secondary options.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 15 active public transport stops in Summerhill. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totaling 84 individual routes. Weekly passenger trips via these routes amount to 8,714.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically situated 198 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 1,244 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 580 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Summerhill is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in Summerhill, with common conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover rate stands at approximately 53%, covering about 1,618 people, which is higher than the average SA2 area. The most frequent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 10.4% of residents each. About 63.1% of Summerhill residents report no medical ailments, compared to 63.9% in Rest of Tas. The area has 18.6% of residents aged 65 and over (573 people), lower than the 19.9% in Rest of Tas. Health outcomes among seniors face some challenges, generally aligning with the overall population's health profile.

Summerhill is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Summerhill's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 91.6% of its population born in Australia, 92.7% being citizens, and 95.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Summerhill, comprising 44.7% of people. However, Hinduism is overrepresented compared to Rest of Tas., with 0.9% vs 2.5%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (35.9%), Australian (32.7%), and Irish (7.1%). Notably, Dutch (2.3%) and Maori (0.6%) are overrepresented in Summerhill compared to regional averages of 2.0% and 0.2%, respectively. Additionally, Australian Aboriginal representation is slightly higher at 3.0%.

Summerhill's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Summerhill is 38 years, which is lower than the Rest of Tasmania's average of 45 but equal to Australia's median age of 38. Compared to the Rest of Tasmania, Summerhill has a notably higher proportion of individuals aged 15-24 (12.7%) and a lower proportion of those aged 65-74 (9.5%). Between the 2021 Census and present, the population aged 75-84 has increased from 6.0% to 7.3%, while the 25-34 age group has decreased from 14.4% to 13.2%. By 2041, Summerhill's population is projected to see significant demographic changes. The 45-54 age cohort is expected to grow by 40 people (10%), from 394 to 435. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above contributing to 57% of the projected growth. Conversely, the 55-64 and 15-24 age cohorts are anticipated to experience population declines.