Ceduna

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ceduna reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of Ceduna, as estimated by AreaSearch using ABS ERP data from June 2024 and validated new addresses since the Census date, is around 2,076 as of November 2025. This figure represents a growth of 121 people (6.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,955. The suburb's population density is approximately 5.2 persons per square kilometer. Ceduna's growth rate of 6.2% exceeds that of both its SA4 region (5.3%) and SA3 area, indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed roughly 57% to overall population gains recently. AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, the SA State Government's Regional/LGA projections are used, adjusted via weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. By 2041, Ceduna is projected to increase its population by 165 persons, reflecting an 8.1% gain over 17 years, which aligns with the median growth rate for locations outside capital cities.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Ceduna recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates approximately 5 new homes approved annually in Ceduna over the past five financial years, totalling around 28 dwellings. As of FY-26, 2 approvals have been recorded. On average, about 3.2 new residents arrive per year for each dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25. Commercial approvals in Ceduna total $5.8 million this financial year.

Compared to the Rest of SA, Ceduna records 14.0% less building activity per person but ranks among the 54th percentile nationally, with accelerating activity in recent years. Detached houses dominate recent building activity, maintaining the area's low density character and appealing to families seeking space. With around 296 people per dwelling approval, Ceduna exhibits characteristics of a low-density area. By 2041, Ceduna is projected to grow by approximately 169 residents, with development keeping pace with projected growth despite increasing competition among buyers as the population expands.

Looking ahead, Ceduna is expected to grow by 169 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Development is keeping reasonable pace with projected growth, though buyers may face increasing competition as the population expands.

Ceduna has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 22ndth percentile nationally

No infrastructure changes or major projects have been identified by AreaSearch as likely impacting the area. Key projects include South Australian Road Network Maintenance, South Australia High Productivity Vehicle Network Access, Gawler Craton Rail Access, and Bulk Water Supply Security.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Ceduna faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Ceduna's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs with prominent essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 7.7% in the past year, showing an estimated employment growth of 4.8%.

As of June 2025, there were 966 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.1%, higher than Rest of SA's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation was at 58.2%, slightly above Rest of SA's 54.1%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade. Ceduna has a strong specialization in education & training with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level.

However, manufacturing is under-represented at 1.6% compared to Rest of SA's 9.3%. The worker-to-resident ratio was 0.7 as per the Census, indicating local employment opportunities above average. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 4.8%, while labour force grew by 5.8%, leading to an unemployment rise of 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of SA saw a decline in employment by 1.2% with labour force growth of 0.1% and an increase in unemployment by 1.2 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between sectors. Applying these projections to Ceduna's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.9% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that income in Ceduna is lower than average nationally. The median income is $50,344 and the average is $59,373. This contrasts with Rest of SA's figures: median income of $46,889 and average income of $56,582. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.83% since financial year 2022, current estimates suggest approximately $56,803 (median) and $66,991 (average) as of September 2025. Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes all rank modestly in Ceduna, between the 26th and 41st percentiles. Income distribution shows that the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 28.9% of the community (599 individuals), similar to the broader area where this cohort also represents 27.5%. Housing costs are manageable with 88.5% retained, but disposable income is below average at the 32nd percentile.

Ceduna is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Ceduna, as per the latest Census evaluation, 90.1% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 9.9% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other dwelling types. This contrasts with Non-Metro SA's figures of 75.9% houses and 24.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ceduna stood at 30.7%, with mortgaged properties at 24.8% and rented dwellings at 44.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,200, surpassing Non-Metro SA's average of $1,170. The median weekly rent in Ceduna was recorded as $200, slightly higher than Non-Metro SA's figure of $195. Nationally, Ceduna's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Ceduna features high concentrations of lone person households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.2% of all households, including 25.7% couples with children, 26.8% couples without children, and 13.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 32.8%, with lone person households at 30.2% and group households comprising 3.0%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is larger than the Rest of SA average of 2.3.

Ceduna faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 14.9%, considerably lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 37.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas (9.4%) and certificates (28.0%). Educational participation is high at 29.0%, including 13.9% in primary education, 6.5% in secondary education, and 3.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Two schools serve the area: Crossways Lutheran School Ceduna and Ceduna Area School, educating a total of 610 students. The area has varied educational conditions (ICSEA score: 822). Both schools offer integrated K-12 education for academic continuity. As an education hub with 30.3 school places per 100 residents - higher than the regional average of 15.7 - it attracts students from surrounding communities.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Ceduna's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Ceduna's health metrics closely mirror national benchmarks, with common health conditions evenly distributed across young and old age groups.

Approximately 50% (~1,048 people) have private health cover, a relatively low rate compared to other areas. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (7.7%) and arthritis (7.5%). About 69.0% of residents report no medical ailments, slightly higher than the Rest of SA's 65.6%. Ceduna has 20.4% (423 people) of its population aged 65 and over, lower than Rest of SA's 22.1%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in Ceduna are notably strong, outperforming the general population in various health metrics.

Ceduna ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ceduna's cultural diversity was found to be below average. As of the 2016 Census, 88.5% of its population were Australian citizens, with 90.7% born in Australia and 89.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, making up 48.4% of Ceduna's population.

Notably, Judaism had an overrepresentation in Ceduna, comprising 0.2% compared to 0% across the rest of South Australia. In terms of ancestry, Australians comprised 27.0%, English 26.9%, and Australian Aboriginal 20.4%. This was significantly higher than the regional average for Australian Aboriginal ancestry, which stood at 4.8%. Some other ethnic groups also showed notable differences: German was overrepresented at 5.8% (compared to 6.6% regionally), Greek at 1.3% (vs 0.7%), and Polish at 0.7% (vs 0.4%).

Ceduna's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Ceduna's median age is 37 years, which is considerably lower than the Rest of SA average of 47 years and very close to Australia's national average of 38 years. The age group of 25-34 years shows strong representation in Ceduna at 14.2%, compared to the Rest of SA. However, the 65-74 age cohort is less prevalent in Ceduna at 10.3%. Post-2021 Census data indicates that the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 10.6% to 12.3% of Ceduna's population, while the 55 to 64 cohort increased from 11.2% to 12.5%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 age group has declined from 12.6% to 9.4%. Demographic modeling suggests that Ceduna's age profile will evolve significantly by the year 2041. The 75 to 84 age cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 45%, adding 73 residents to reach a total of 238. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive 81% of population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends in Ceduna. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 15 to 24 and 5 to 14 age cohorts.