Ceduna

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ceduna reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, Ceduna's population is estimated at around 2,074 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 119 people (6.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,955 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 2,071 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional two validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 5.2 persons per square kilometer. Ceduna's 6.1% growth since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA4 region (5.3%) and the SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth that contributed approximately 57% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, the SA State Government's Regional/LGA projections by age category are adopted, released in 2023 based on 2021 data, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Looking at population projections moving forward, a population increase just below the median of locations outside capital cities is expected for Ceduna, with an estimated expansion by 165 persons to reach 2,239 by 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an overall gain of 8.2% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Ceduna recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Ceduna has had around 5 new homes approved per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 25 homes. As of FY-26, 1 approval has been recorded. On average, 3.6 new residents arrive annually for each dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating demand significantly outpaces supply. New properties are constructed at an average value of $413,000, focusing on the premium segment with upmarket properties.

In FY-26, $61,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Rest of SA, Ceduna records approximately three-quarters the building activity per person and ranks among the 56th percentile nationally, reflecting its maturity and possible planning constraints. Recent building activity consists entirely of detached houses, preserving Ceduna's low density nature with an emphasis on space-seeking buyers. The location has around 276 people per dwelling approval.

Population forecasts indicate Ceduna will gain 171 residents by 2041, with building activity keeping pace with growth projections, though heightened competition among buyers is expected as the population grows.

Ceduna has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 9thth percentile nationally

No infrastructure changes or major projects have been identified by AreaSearch that could impact the area. Key projects include South Australian Road Network Maintenance, South Australia High Productivity Vehicle Network Access, Gawler Craton Rail Access, and Bulk Water Supply Security.

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Employment conditions in Ceduna face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Ceduna's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs, with key sectors being health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade. As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 10.4%.

Over the past year, employment stability has been relative. The area has an unemployment rate 5.0% higher than Rest of SA's rate of 5.3%, indicating room for improvement. Workforce participation is fairly standard at 58.2%, compared to Rest of SA's 54.1%. There are 933 residents employed currently.

Ceduna specializes in education & training, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level. Conversely, manufacturing has lower representation at 1.6% versus the regional average of 9.3%. The worker-to-resident ratio is 0.7, indicating local employment opportunities above the norm. Over the 12 months to September 2025, labour force levels increased by 4.4%, while employment declined by 0.2%, causing unemployment to rise by 4.2 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of SA recorded employment growth of 0.3% and labour force growth of 2.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ceduna's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, although these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023, Ceduna suburb had median income among taxpayers of $50,344 and average income of $59,373. This is below national average compared to $48,920 and $58,933 across Rest of SA respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.8% since financial year ended June 2023, estimated median income as of September 2025 would be approximately $54,774 and average income around $64,598. Census 2021 data shows household, family and personal incomes in Ceduna rank modestly between 26th and 41st percentiles. Distribution data indicates that 28.9% of community (599 individuals) earns within $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, similar to metropolitan region at 27.5%. Housing costs are manageable with 88.5% retained but disposable income ranks below average at 32nd percentile.

Ceduna is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Ceduna, as evaluated at the latest Census, consisted of 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compared to Non-Metro SA's 75.9% houses and 24.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ceduna was at 30.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 24.8% and rented ones at 44.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,200, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded as $200. Nationally, Ceduna's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Ceduna features high concentrations of lone person households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 67.2% of all households, including 25.7% couples with children, 26.8% couples without children, and 13.0% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 32.8%, with lone person households at 30.2% and group households making up 3.0%. The median household size is 2.4 people, larger than the Rest of SA average of 2.3.

Ceduna faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 14.9%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 37.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 9.4% and certificates at 28.0%. Educational participation is high, with 29.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 13.9% in primary education, 6.5% in secondary education, and 3.0% pursuing tertiary education.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Ceduna's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Ceduna's health metrics closely match national benchmarks, with common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts at a fairly standard level. Approximately 50% (~1,047 people) of Ceduna's total population has private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (7.7%) and arthritis (7.5%), with 69.0% of residents reporting no medical ailments, compared to 65.6% in Rest of SA. Ceduna has 20.4% (423 people) of its population aged 65 and over, lower than the 22.1% in Rest of SA. Health outcomes among seniors are notably strong, outperforming those of the general population in health metrics.

Ceduna ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ceduna's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 88.5% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia (90.7%), and speaking English only at home (89.8%). Christianity is the predominant religion in Ceduna, comprising 48.4% of the population. Notably, Judaism, which is not represented regionally, comprises 0.2% of Ceduna's population.

In terms of ancestry, Australian (27.0%), English (26.9%), and Australian Aboriginal (20.4%) are the top three groups in Ceduna, with Australian Aboriginal being substantially higher than the regional average of 4.8%. There are also notable divergences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: German is overrepresented at 5.8% compared to the regional average of 6.6%, Greek at 1.3% (regional average 0.7%), and Polish at 0.7% (regional average 0.4%).

Ceduna's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Ceduna's median age is 37 years, which is lower than the Rest of SA average of 47 and close to the national average of 38. The 25-34 age group comprises 14.2% of Ceduna's population compared to the Rest of SA. The 65-74 cohort makes up 10.3%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 35-44 age group grew from 10.6% to 12.3%, while the 55-64 cohort increased from 11.2% to 12.5%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort declined from 12.6% to 9.3%. By 2041, Ceduna's age profile is projected to change significantly. The 75-84 cohort is expected to grow by 45%, adding 74 residents to reach 238. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 79% of population growth. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 15-24 and 5-14 age groups.