Ceduna

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ceduna reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validation, the estimated population of Ceduna as of May 2026 is around 2051. This reflects an increase of 96 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1955. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 2051 residents following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release in June 2025 and additional validation of 15 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 5.1 persons per square kilometer. Ceduna's growth of 4.9% since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA4 region (4.2%) and the SA3 area, making it a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 57% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, SA State Government's Regional/LGA projections are adopted with adjustments made using weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Population projections indicate an increase just below the median for locations outside capital cities, with Ceduna expected to expand by 147 persons to reach around 2208 by 2041, reflecting a gain of approximately 7.2% over the 16-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ceduna according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis shows Ceduna had around 4 new homes approved annually over the past 5 financial years, totalling approximately 20. As of FY-26, 4 approvals have been recorded. This results in an average of 4.6 new residents per year arriving per dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating demand outpaces supply, which may put upward pressure on prices and increase competition among buyers. New properties are constructed at an average value of $413,000, suggesting a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties.

In FY-26, $61,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Rest of SA, Ceduna records about 62% of the building activity per person and ranks among the 40th percentile nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing dwellings. Recent building activity consists entirely of detached houses, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated count of 413 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Ceduna is expected to grow by 147 residents through to 2041, with building activity keeping pace with growth projections but potentially heightening competition among buyers as the population grows.

Ceduna has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 9thth percentile nationally

No infrastructure changes will influence an area's performance more than local modifications. AreaSearch identified zero projects expected to impact this area. Key initiatives include South Australian Road Network Maintenance, South Australia High Productivity Vehicle Network Access, Gawler Craton Rail Access, and Bulk Water Supply Security. The following list details those most relevant.

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Employment conditions in Ceduna face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Ceduna has a balanced workforce across white and blue collar jobs, with essential services well represented. The unemployment rate is 12.1%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, there are 901 residents employed while the unemployment rate is 6.4% higher than Regional SA's rate of 5.7%.

Workforce participation stands at 63.0%, slightly above Regional SA's 58.3%. Census responses show that only 5.1% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts may have influenced this figure. The key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade. Notably, the area specializes in education & training, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level.

Conversely, manufacturing has lower representation at 1.6% compared to Regional SA's average of 9.3%. The ratio of 0.7 workers per resident indicates a higher than usual level of local employment opportunities. Over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels increased by 1.8%, while employment declined by 5.7%, leading to a rise in unemployment of 6.8 percentage points. In comparison, Regional SA recorded employment growth of 0.7% and labour force growth of 3.1%, with unemployment rising by 2.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Ceduna's employment mix indicates a potential local employment increase of 6.0% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only and does not account for localized population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023 shows Ceduna had a median taxpayer income of $50,344 and an average income of $59,373. These figures are below the national averages of $61,680 (median) and $64,854 (average). In Regional SA, the median was $48,920 and the average was $58,933. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.17% since June 2023, estimated incomes for March 2026 would be approximately $55,464 (median) and $65,411 (average). According to Census 2021 data, income rankings in Ceduna are modest, between the 26th and 41st percentiles. Income distribution shows 28.9% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999, similar to metropolitan regions at 27.5%. Housing costs allow for retention of 88.5%, but disposable income is below average at the 32nd percentile.

Ceduna is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Ceduna's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional SA's 88.5% houses and 11.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ceduna stood at 30.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 24.8% and rented ones at 44.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,200, higher than Regional SA's average of $1,153. Median weekly rent in Ceduna was $200, lower than Regional SA's figure of $220. Nationally, Ceduna's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Ceduna features high concentrations of lone person households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.2% of all households, including 25.7% couples with children, 26.8% couples without children, and 13.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 32.8%, with lone person households at 30.2% and group households comprising 3.0%. The median household size is 2.4 people, larger than the Regional SA average of 2.3.

Ceduna faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 14.9%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 37.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.4%) and certificates (28.0%). Educational participation is high at 29.0%, with 13.9% in primary education, 6.5% in secondary education, and 3.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.9% in primary education, 6.5% in secondary education, and 3.0% pursuing tertiary education.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health performance in Ceduna is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Ceduna faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

Approximately 50% of the total population (~1,035 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions are asthma (7.7%) and arthritis (7.5%). 69.0% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, higher than Regional SA's 62.5%. Health outcomes among the working-age population are typical. 20.5% of residents are aged 65 and over (420 people), lower than Regional SA's 27.1%. Health outcomes among seniors are strong, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Ceduna ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ceduna had a cultural diversity index below the average, with 88.5% of its population being Australian citizens, 90.7% born in Australia, and 89.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Ceduna as of 2016, making up 48.4% of the population. However, Judaism showed an overrepresentation with 0.2%, compared to none across Regional South Australia.

In terms of ancestry, Australian and English were the top groups, comprising 27.0% and 26.9% respectively, but both were lower than the regional averages of 32.5% and 31.4%. Notably, Australian Aboriginal ancestry was higher at 20.4%, compared to Regional SA's average of 3.3%. Other groups with notable divergences included German (5.8% vs regional 8.2%), Greek (1.3% vs 0.6%), and Polish (0.7% vs 0.4%).

Ceduna's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Ceduna's median age is 37 years, significantly lower than Regional South Australia's average of 47 and close to the national average of 38 years. The 25-34 age group comprises 14.0% of Ceduna's population, higher than Regional SA's percentage. Conversely, the 65-74 cohort makes up 10.4%, lower than Regional SA's figure. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 35 to 44 age group grew from 10.6% to 12.9%, while the 55 to 64 cohort increased from 11.2% to 12.5%. However, the 45 to 54 cohort decreased from 12.6% to 9.4%. By 2041, Ceduna's age profile is projected to change significantly. The 75-84 cohort is expected to grow by 44%, adding 70 residents to reach 233. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 83% of population growth. Meanwhile, declines are projected for the 35-44 and 5-14 age cohorts.