Ceduna

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ceduna reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Ceduna's population was approximately 2,905 as of February 2026. This figure represents an increase of 208 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,697. The growth is inferred from the estimated resident population of 2,865 in June 2024 and an additional 22 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 7.0 persons per square kilometer. Ceduna's population grew by 7.7% between the 2021 Census and February 2026, exceeding the SA4 region's growth rate of 5.7%. Natural growth contributed approximately 57.1% to overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, the SA State Government's Regional/LGA projections are adopted, based on 2021 data released in 2023, with adjustments made using weighted aggregation methods from LGA to SA2 levels. Future population trends indicate a growth just below the national regional median by 2041, with an expected increase of 206 persons and a total increase of 5.7% over the 17-year period based on the latest annual ERP population numbers.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Ceduna recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Ceduna has granted around 7 residential properties approval annually. Over the past 5 financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, 35 homes were approved, with another 3 approved so far in FY-26. On average, approximately 3.5 new residents arrive per dwelling constructed each year during this period.

This indicates a substantial lag between supply and demand, potentially leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. The average construction cost value for new dwellings is $287,000. In FY-26, $5.8 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting limited focus on commercial development. Compared to the Rest of SA, Ceduna has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 54th percentile nationally for development activity.

Recent development has consisted entirely of standalone homes, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 446 people. Future projections suggest Ceduna will add 166 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Ceduna has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 15thth percentile nationally

No infrastructure changes will influence a region's performance more than local improvements. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that could impact this area. Key initiatives include South Australian Road Network Maintenance, South Australia High Productivity Vehicle Network Access, Gawler Craton Rail Access, and Bulk Water Supply Security, with the following list highlighting those most relevant.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Ceduna faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Ceduna has a balanced workforce with equal representation of white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well-represented in the area. As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 10.3%.

This figure shows relative employment stability over the past year compared to previous periods. There are 1,322 residents employed currently, with an unemployment rate that is 5.0% higher than the Rest of SA's rate of 5.3%, indicating potential room for improvement in job opportunities within Ceduna itself. Workforce participation in Ceduna stands at 64.1%, which is above the Rest of SA average of 58.5%. According to Census responses, only 5.3% of residents work from home, although Covid-19 lockdown impacts may have influenced this figure.

The majority of employment opportunities for Ceduna residents lie within health care & social assistance, education & training, and public administration & safety sectors. Notably, the area has a strong specialization in education & training, with an employment share that is 1.6 times higher than the regional level. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 6.5%, compared to the regional average of 14.5%. This suggests that while local jobs exist, many residents may commute elsewhere for work opportunities. In the 12-month period prior to reporting, Ceduna's labour force increased by 4.4% while employment declined slightly by 0.2%, leading to a rise in unemployment of 4.2 percentage points. This differs from the trend seen across Rest of SA where employment rose by 0.3%, the labour force grew by 2.3%, and unemployment rose by 1.9 percentage points. For future insights into potential job demand within Ceduna, Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can be considered. These projections estimate a national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Ceduna's current employment mix suggests that local employment should increase by approximately 6.1% over the next five years and 13.1% over ten years. It is important to note that these figures are based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and do not account for potential localized population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released on 29 June 2023 for financial year 2023, Ceduna SA2's median income among taxpayers is $54,794. The average income in Ceduna SA2 is $66,295. This is just below the national average. In comparison, Rest of SA has a median income of $48,920 and an average income of $58,933. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.8% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Ceduna SA2 would be approximately $59,616 (median) and $72,129 (average) as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, personal income ranks at the 46th percentile ($788 weekly), while household income sits at the 29th percentile. In terms of income distribution, 29.1% of Ceduna SA2's population (845 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, reflecting patterns seen regionally where 27.5% similarly occupy this range. Housing costs are manageable with 88.0% retained, though disposable income sits below average at the 34th percentile.

Ceduna is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Ceduna, as per the latest Census, consisted of 90.9% houses and 9.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro SA's 88.5% houses and 11.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ceduna was at 31.7%, with the rest being mortgaged (27.5%) or rented (40.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,251, higher than Non-Metro SA's average of $1,153. The median weekly rent was $220, matching Non-Metro SA's figure. Nationally, Ceduna's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,251 compared to Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially lower at $220 compared to the national figure of $375.

Ceduna features high concentrations of lone person households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.0% of all households, including 25.6% couples with children, 27.8% couples without children, and 11.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 33.0%, with lone person households at 30.1% and group households comprising 3.1%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is larger than the Rest of SA average of 2.3.

Ceduna faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 14.5%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 38.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (9.8%) and certificates (28.8%).

Educational participation is high, with 28.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.0% in primary education, 6.9% in secondary education, and 3.2% pursuing tertiary education.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health performance in Ceduna is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Ceduna faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover is slightly lower than average at approximately 52% of the total population (~1,513 people), compared to 48.9% across Rest of SA. The most common medical conditions are asthma and arthritis, affecting 7.3% and 7.2% of residents respectively. 70.0% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 62.5% across Rest of SA. Health outcomes among the working-age population are typical. The area has 20.9% of residents aged 65 and over (605 people), lower than the 27.1% in Rest of SA. Health outcomes among seniors are strong, with national rankings higher than the general population.

Ceduna ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ceduna's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 88.6% of its population being Australian citizens, 90.9% born in Australia, and 89.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Ceduna, comprising 48.7% of the population. Notably, the 'Other' religious category makes up 1.5% of Ceduna's population compared to the regional average of 0.8%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups in Ceduna are English (27.0%), Australian (26.7%), and Australian Aboriginal (18.5%). The latter is substantially higher than the regional average of 3.3%. Additionally, certain ethnic groups show notable variations: German at 6.4% compared to the regional average of 8.2%, Greek at 2.2% versus 0.6%, and Indian at 1.5% compared to 0.3%.

Ceduna's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

Ceduna has a median age of 39, which is younger than the Rest of SA figure of 47 and comparable to the national average of 38. The age profile shows that those aged 25-34 are particularly prominent at 13.8%, while those aged 65-74 make up a smaller proportion at 11.8% compared to the Rest of SA. Between the 2021 Census and now, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 5.7% to 7.3%, and the 35 to 44 cohort has increased from 10.3% to 11.8%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 13.7% to 10.5%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Ceduna's age structure. The 75 to 84 group is expected to grow by 42%, reaching 302 people from the current 212. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 84% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 0 to 4 and 35 to 44 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.