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This analysis uses ABS Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2) boundaries, which can materially differ from Suburbs and Localities (SAL) even when sharing similar names.
SA2 boundaries are defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and are designed to represent communities for statistical reporting (e.g., census and ERP).
Suburbs and Localities (SAL) represent commonly-used suburb/locality names (postal-style areas) and may use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
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ABS ERP | -- people | --
2021 Census | -- people
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Ayr has an estimated 9,236 residents, up from 8,987 at the 2021 Census — a change of 249 people, or 2.8%. That puts 132 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
Ayr has an estimated population of approximately 9,236 as of May 2026, according to analysis by AreaSearch. This represents a rise of 249 individuals (2.8%) from the 8,987 residents recorded in the 2021 Census. This growth calculation is based on the ABS estimated resident population of 9,234 from June 2025 combined with 15 validated new addresses identified since the Census. With a population density of 132 persons per square kilometer, the region offers substantial space per resident and potential for future expansion. The post-census growth rate of 2.8% is within 0.6 percentage points of the 3.4% recorded in the wider SA3 region, indicating competitive population dynamics.
The upward trend was largely driven by overseas migration, which accounted for roughly 97.4% of the total population growth in recent times. Projections from ABS and Geoscience Australia released in 2024, using 2022 as the baseline, are utilized for each SA2 area. For locations not detailed in that release, or for projections extending beyond 2032, figures from the Queensland State Government released in 2023 (based on 2021 data) are applied. Because these state-level projections lack age-specific breakdowns, AreaSearch allocates growth weightings across age groups using the 2023 ABS Greater Capital Region projections, which stem from 2022 baseline data. Looking ahead, regional areas nationwide are projected to experience lower quartile growth, with this specific locality expected to add 41 residents by 2041 based on the most recent annual ERP statistics, representing a long-term increase of 0.4% over the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
86 new dwellings have been approved in Ayr over the past five years, an average of 17 a year. That is 1.9 approvals per 1,000 residents. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 19, broadly in line with that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this SA2 boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
Residential approvals in Ayr average approximately 17 new dwellings per year, with a total of 86 homes approved over the last 5 financial years. In the current FY-26 period, 18 approvals have been registered so far. Over the five financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, the local market has seen an average of 1.5 new residents per year arriving for each approved home, indicating a balanced relationship between supply and demand that supports market stability. The expected construction cost of these new residences averages $308,000, which sits below the broader regional average and highlights options for more affordable building projects.
Furthermore, commercial building approvals have reached $19.1 million during this financial year, showing ongoing business investment. When compared to the Rest of Qld, construction activity per capita in Ayr is 10.0% lower, placing it in the 28th percentile of all analyzed locations nationwide. This indicates a relatively constrained supply of new residential projects while bolstering demand for existing housing stock. This rate also sits below the national average, pointing to the established nature of the local market and possible planning limits. Residential construction is heavily weighted toward single houses at 80.0%, with townhouses or apartments making up the remaining 20.0%, sustaining a low-density urban footprint that appeals to buyers seeking space. The quiet nature of local development is illustrated by an estimated ratio of 778 residents for every single dwelling approval. Based on the most recent quarterly estimate from AreaSearch, Ayr is projected to add 39 residents by 2041. Given the current pace of residential construction, the supply of new housing is expected to comfortably accommodate this growth, creating supportive market conditions for buyers and potentially allowing the population to expand beyond official projections.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Ayr
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| Lodged | Address | Description | Type | Distance | Status |
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SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks 2 current infrastructure and development projects inside Ayr, worth an estimated $10 million. A further 33 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $4.34 billion. 11 are already under construction and 10 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, precincts & urban renewal and business parks & technology hubs. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Changes to local infrastructure, major developments, and urban planning decisions represent significant drivers of local growth. AreaSearch has identified a total of 2 key projects expected to influence the local area. Prominent developments include the Ayr Industrial Precinct, the refurbishment of St Francis Catholic School Prep Classrooms, the Bowen Pipeline Project, and the Bowen Basin Gas Pipeline, with specific details on the most relevant schemes provided below.
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Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.
Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Ayr Industrial Precinct
Council-led industrial land release in Ayr, North Queensland, on a 14.32 hectare site at 31-87 Craig Street. Stage 1 lots are now selling from $50 per square metre plus GST, with the precinct nearing completion as of mid-2026. The precinct offers fully serviced land with underground power, wide roads, services to boundary and design guidelines for manufacturing, logistics and trade services. Strategic access to the Bruce Highway, Port of Townsville, Townsville Airport and the Bowen Basin.Council has also adopted an Economic Stimulus Policy offering fee and infrastructure charge reductions to support development.
St Francis Catholic School Prep Classrooms Refurbishment
Refurbishment of prep classrooms at St Francis Catholic School in Ayr to create modern and functional learning environments, featuring raised stages for interactive learning, reading nooks, abundant storage, and themed classrooms inspired by reef and rainforest.
Haughton Pipeline Stage 2
Major Townsville water security project extending the Haughton Pipeline from the Haughton River to the Burdekin River near Clare. Stage 2 includes about 28.5 km of large diameter raw water pipeline, pump station infrastructure, control systems, trenchless sections and power supply interfaces to enable raw water transfer to Ross River Dam during prolonged dry periods. Construction is continuing, with most trenched pipeline works expected to be completed by early 2026, while pump station design, remaining trenchless sections, final funding and commissioning are being refined through a Concept Study and Business Case due in June 2026.
Burdekin BESS & Solar Farm
A proposed 140 MW solar farm paired with a 500 MW / 2000 MWh (4 hours) Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) located approximately 12km south of Clare in regional Queensland. Originally approved in 2017 as a solar farm, a change application was submitted in March 2025 to develop a larger, standalone BESS with the solar component being optional for the future. The project aims to store excess renewable energy and enhance regional grid stability.
Queensland Resources Common User Facility
Australian-first critical minerals processing test facility being developed by the Queensland Government at Cleveland Bay Industrial Park, Townsville. The facility will enable demonstration-scale processing trials, initially for vanadium with future capability for cobalt, rare earth elements and other critical minerals. Construction and commissioning are progressing with Sedgman as managing contractor, with opening targeted for late 2026.
Wulguru Group Stuart Facility Expansion
Multi-stage expansion of Wulguru Group's 17 hectare Stuart manufacturing and engineering facility. Stage 1, including an 8,500 sqm heavy fabrication workshop, 2,000 sqm paint and blast facility and new head office, was completed in 2025. Stage 2 has development approval and will deliver rail wagon maintenance, locomotive maintenance, rail wheel workshop and rolling stock paint and blast facilities. The balance of the site is currently being developed with operations targeted during 2027.
SunHQ Hydrogen Hub
Renewable hydrogen production and refuelling hub at the Sun Metals Zinc Refinery precinct featuring a 1 MW PEM electrolyser powered by the co-located Sun Metals Solar Farm, with compression, storage and dispensing infrastructure to supply Ark Energy/Townsville Logistics heavy vehicles and third-party users (up to ~155,000 kg p.a.).
Iluka
Masterplanned residential community to be delivered over 10 stages in Wulguru, Townsville. Promoted by PointCorp as large, mostly level lots with ocean views in proximity to Townsville CBD, hospital, ADF base, and James Cook University.
4,218 residents of Ayr are employed, from a labour force of 4,485. Unemployment sits at 6.0%, with participation at 57.8%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 5.0% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
The local workforce displays a balanced mix of professional and industrial roles, with manufacturing and industrial businesses showing a significant presence, alongside a jobless rate of 6.0%. As of March 2026, the working population stands at 4,218 individuals. The unemployment rate is 2.0% higher than the Regional Qld benchmark of 3.9%, and the workforce participation rate of 57.8% is notably lower than the 64.3% recorded across Regional Qld. Census data indicates that a modest 5.1% of working residents performed their duties from home, though this figure may reflect the influence of pandemic-related lockdowns.
The primary employment sectors for local residents are agriculture, forestry & fishing, manufacturing, and health care & social assistance. The region exhibits a strong concentration in agriculture, forestry & fishing, where the employment share is 3.6 times the regional average. In contrast, the construction sector is less represented, accounting for 5.1% of local jobs compared to the regional figure of 10.1%. Although local businesses provide employment, the ratio of Census working population to local residents suggests a significant portion of the workforce commutes outside the area for employment. An analysis of SALM and ABS statistics by AreaSearch shows that over the 12-month period, the local labor force contracted by 1.9% and total employment fell by 2.7%, resulting in a 0.8 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate. Over the same timeframe, Regional Qld experienced a 0.1% rise in employment, a 0.3% increase in the labor force, and a minor 0.1 percentage point lift in unemployment. Future local employment trends can be evaluated using national industry forecasts released by Jobs and Skills Australia in May-25. These five and ten-year national projections have been applied to the local workforce structure to model potential growth. Globally, national employment is projected to rise by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though individual sectors vary. Applying these sector-specific rates to the local employment profile estimates a local job growth of 5.0% over five years and 11.5% over ten years, representing a basic weighting model that does not incorporate local population forecasts.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Ayr is $1,269 a week (about $66,000 a year), with median personal income at $711 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $53,014 a year against an average of $66,170. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
Tax office data for the 2023 financial year indicates that incomes in the Ayr SA2 are slightly below the national average, with a median income of $53,014 and an average income of $66,170. For comparison, Regional Qld recorded a median income of $53,146 and an average of $66,593. Factoring in a Wage Price Index rise of 11.36% since the 2023 financial year, estimated figures as of March 2026 are approximately $59,036 for the median and $73,687 for the average. In the 2021 Census, household, family, and individual incomes in the area were positioned between the 18th and 30th percentiles nationally.
The largest income group is the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, containing 30.3% of residents (2,798 people), which aligns with the regional proportion of 31.7% in this bracket. Residents retain 88.2% of their income after housing costs, yet the area ranks in the 23rd percentile nationally for overall disposable income.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Ayr had 3,528 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 84% detached houses and 1% apartments. 27% are owned with a mortgage, 31% rented and 42% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $230 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,247 a month. Rent absorbs 18.1% of household income here and mortgage repayments 22.7%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
At the time of the latest Census, the housing mix in Ayr consisted of 83.6% detached houses and 16.5% other dwelling types, including semi-detached homes, apartments, and alternative structures, compared to Regional Qld's split of 76.4% houses and 23.6% other options. The rate of outright home ownership was high at 41.7%, with the remaining properties occupied by residents with a mortgage (27.2%) or renting (31.1%). The median monthly mortgage payment was $1,247, which is lower than the Regional Qld average, and the median weekly rent was recorded at $230, compared to regional figures of $1,655 and $345, respectively.
On a national level, Ayr's monthly mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and weekly rents are below the national benchmark of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Ayr counted 3,528 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 2.2 people each. 22% are couples with children, fewer than in 79% of areas nationally, against 30% couples without children. 33% of households are people living alone, and families average 2.0 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Families make up 64.4% of all local households, consisting of couples with children at 22.3%, couples without children at 30.4%, and single parent households at 10.4%. Non-family households account for the remaining 35.6%, with lone person households representing 32.8% and group living situations comprising 2.9%. The median household size is 2.2 individuals, which is smaller than the Regional Qld average of 2.5.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
12.5% of adults in Ayr hold a university qualification, including 10.0% with a bachelor degree and 1.3% with postgraduate qualifications, lower than 95% of areas nationally. A further 31.4% hold a vocational qualification. 8 schools serve the area, with 1,964 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 927 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
Educational attainment levels show that university graduation rates stand at 12.5%, which is below the national average of 30.4%. Among university qualifications, bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.0%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 1.3% and graduate diplomas at 1.2%. Technical and vocational qualifications are common, with 39.0% of residents aged 15+ holding a vocational qualification, consisting of advanced diplomas at 7.6% and certificates at 31.4%. Enrolment in formal education is high, with 26.8% of the local population actively participating. This group is distributed across primary education at 10.8%, secondary education at 9.4%, and tertiary education at 2.3%.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Getting around Ayr means driving: households keep an average of 1.4 vehicles, and no scheduled public transport appears in the current timetable feeds. Service data is built from operators' published GTFS timetables; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
65.7% of residents in Ayr report no long-term health condition. 6.9% need daily assistance with core activities, and 52.1% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 5.4 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Local health outcomes are below the national average based on mortality figures and the prevalence of chronic health conditions. While typical health issues in the general population are in line with broader trends, they are elevated among the older age groups. Furthermore, the rate of private health insurance coverage is slightly below the average SA2 area, standing at approximately 52% of the population, which represents roughly 4,811 individuals. Arthritis and mental health conditions are the most prevalent health issues locally, affecting 10.9% and 7.3% of the population, respectively. Meanwhile, 65.7% of residents reported having no chronic medical conditions, compared to 67.6% across Regional Qld.
Health outcomes for working-age residents are generally typical. Residents aged 65 and over represent 26.4% of the population (2,441 people), which is higher than the Regional Qld proportion of 20.4%. Health outcomes among these senior residents present some challenges, although they rank more favorably on a national scale than the general local population.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Ayr is largely Australian-born, at 88.5% of residents, with 8.1% speaking a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are Australian (26.3%) and English (25.0%). 5.0% of residents identify as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander. Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Cultural diversity measures indicate that Ayr is below average, with citizens making up 86.1% of the population, 88.5% of residents born in Australia, and 91.9% speaking only English at home. Christianity is the dominant religion, practiced by 73.3% of the population, compared to 52.2% across Regional Qld. In terms of parental country of birth, the three largest ancestry groups are Australian at 26.3%, English at 25.0%, and Italian at 12.3%, the latter being notably higher than the regional average of 2.4%. Other ethnic representations show variation, with Spanish heritage at 1.1% of the population compared to 0.3% regionally, Australian Aboriginal ancestry at 5.0% compared to 3.9%, and German ancestry at 3.9% compared to 4.7%.
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Ayr is 44. 23.6% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The median age in Ayr is 44 years, which is slightly higher than the Regional Qld average of 41 years and older than the national median of 38 years. The local age distribution features a prominent group of 65 - 74 year-olds at 13.3%, while the 45 - 54 age bracket is relatively small at 10.2% compared to Regional Qld. Since 2021, the 35 to 44 age cohort has increased from 10.3% to 11.3%, whereas the 45 to 54 group has decreased from 12.4% to 10.2% and the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 11.6% to 10.5%.
Population projections for 2041 point to changing demographics, with the 75 to 84 cohort expected to grow by 30%, adding 253 people to reach a total of 1,088. Senior residents aged 65 and over are projected to account for 83% of the overall population increase, indicating an aging demographic trend, while declines are anticipated in the 45 to 54 and 5 to 14 groups.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Ayr
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Aug 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the SA2 boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to May 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to May 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Jun 2026 2 months ago headline measures · May 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Aug 2026 this month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Aug 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | Jul 2026 last month all 2 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated Jul 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 5 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Aug 2026 this month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Jul 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 15 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for May 2026, not a 2021 count (8,987 at the 2021 Census → 9,236 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to May 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (318011460). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.