Ayr
Statistical Area - sa2

Ayr has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Ayr's population is approximately 9,269 as of August 2025. This represents an increase of 282 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,987 people. The growth is inferred from the estimated resident population of 9,250 in June 2024 and an additional 27 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 132 persons per square kilometer. Ayr has shown resilient growth patterns over the past decade with a compound annual growth rate of -0.2%, outperforming its SA3 area. Overseas migration contributed approximately 87.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, based on 2021 data and released in 2023. However, these state projections do not provide age category splits, so AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings in line with ABS Greater Capital Region projections for each age cohort, released in 2023 using 2022 data as the base year. Looking ahead, lower quartile growth of regional areas nationally is anticipated, with Ayr expected to increase by 3 persons by 2041 based on the latest population numbers, resulting in a decrease of 0.2% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Ayr, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Ayr has experienced approximately 17 new home approvals annually. The Australian Bureau of Statistics provides development approval data on a financial year basis, totalling 86 approvals from FY21 to FY25, with 10 approvals recorded in FY26 so far. Over the past five years, an average of 1.4 new residents per dwelling was observed annually. However, this figure has recently increased to 5.6 people per dwelling over the last two financial years, indicating a shift towards higher demand and potentially tightening supply. The average construction value for development projects in Ayr is $675,000, slightly above the regional average.

This year, commercial approvals have reached $19.1 million, demonstrating consistent commercial investment activity in the area. Compared to the Rest of Qld, Ayr shows 10.0% lower construction activity per person and ranks at the 28th percentile nationally for areas assessed, suggesting limited buyer options while driving demand for established dwellings. This is indicative of the area's maturity and potential planning constraints. New building activity consists of 80.0% detached dwellings and 20.0% medium to high-density housing, preserving Ayr's traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes.

The estimated population per dwelling approval in Ayr is 777 people, reflecting its quiet development environment. Population projections indicate stability or decline, which should alleviate housing demand pressures, benefiting potential buyers.

Ayr has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 40thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified two projects that could impact this region: Ayr Industrial Precinct, St Francis Catholic School Prep Classrooms Refurbishment, Bowen Basin Gas Pipeline, Isaac And Whitsunday Regions Productive Water Supply. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The labour market performance in Ayr lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Ayr's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs, with manufacturing and industrial sectors prominent. The unemployment rate in Ayr was 6.0% as of June 2025.

At this time, 4,345 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.1% higher than the Rest of Queensland's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation in Ayr was lower at 56.9%, compared to the Rest of Queensland's 59.1%. Key industries for employment among Ayr residents are agriculture, forestry & fishing, manufacturing, and health care & social assistance. Notably, employment in agriculture, forestry & fishing is 3.6 times the regional average.

However, construction has a limited presence with 5.1% of employment compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Many Ayr residents commute elsewhere for work, as indicated by the census working population count. Over the year to June 2025, labour force levels decreased by 2.2%, and employment fell by 4.1%, resulting in a rise in unemployment rate by 1.9 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of Queensland recorded employment growth of 1.8% and a 0.2 percentage point increase in unemployment. State-level data to Sep-25 shows Queensland's employment contracted by 0.23%, losing 8,070 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.5%, with employment growth of 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years nationally. Applying these projections to Ayr's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 5.0% over five years and 11.5% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Ayr's median income among taxpayers is $51,760. The average income in Ayr during this period was $63,054. This places Ayr's incomes slightly below the national average. Comparing Ayr to Rest of Qld, Ayr had a lower median income ($51,760 vs $50,780) but a higher average income ($63,054 vs $64,844). Based on Wage Price Index growth of 11.71% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Ayr's median and average incomes would be approximately $57,821 and $70,438 respectively as of March 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Ayr all fall between the 18th and 30th percentiles nationally. The income bracket indicating $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 30.3% of residents (2,808 people), which aligns with metropolitan regions where this cohort represents 31.7%. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 88.2% income retention, Ayr's total disposable income ranks at just the 23rd percentile nationally.

Ayr is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Ayr's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 83.6% houses and 16.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Qld's 89.5% houses and 10.5% other dwellings. Ayr's home ownership rate was 41.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 27.2% and rented ones at 31.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Ayr was $1,247, higher than Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,213. The median weekly rent figure for Ayr was $230, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $202. Nationally, Ayr's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,863 and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Ayr features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 64.4% of all households, consisting of 22.3% couples with children, 30.4% couples without children, and 10.4% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 35.6%, with lone person households at 32.8% and group households making up 2.9% of the total. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Qld average of 2.3 people.

Ayr faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 12.5%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 10.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 39.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (7.6%) and certificates (31.4%).

Educational participation is high at 26.8%, including 10.8% in primary education, 9.4% in secondary education, and 2.3% pursuing tertiary education. Ayr has a robust network of 8 schools serving approximately 1,964 students. The educational mix includes 3 primary, 3 secondary, and 2 K-12 schools. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health performance in Ayr is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Ayr faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 51% of the total population (~4,736 people), slightly lagging behind the average SA2 area. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 10.9 and 7.3% of residents respectively. A total of 65.7% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 66.2% across Rest of Qld. Ayr has 25.5% of residents aged 65 and over (2,367 people), which is higher than the 24.3% in Rest of Qld. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Ayr ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ayr's population showed lower cultural diversity, with 86.1% being citizens, 88.5% born in Australia, and 91.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Ayr, representing 73.3%, compared to 70.7% across the rest of Queensland. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (26.3%), English (25.0%), and Italian (12.3%).

Notably, Spanish ethnicity was overrepresented at 1.1% in Ayr compared to 0.6% regionally, while Australian Aboriginal was underrepresented at 5.0% versus 8.1%, and German was similarly represented at 3.9%.

Ayr hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Ayr's median age is 44 years, which is slightly higher than the Rest of Queensland average of 41 years, and considerably older than Australia's median age of 38 years. The age profile indicates that individuals aged 65-74 are particularly prominent, comprising 13.0% of the population, while those aged 45-54 make up a smaller percentage at 10.6%, compared to the Rest of Queensland. Between 2021 and present, the proportion of Ayr's population in the 35-44 age group has increased from 10.3% to 11.3%. Conversely, the proportion of individuals aged 45-54 has decreased from 12.4% to 10.6%. Population forecasts for the year 2041 suggest significant demographic changes in Ayr. The cohort aged 75-84 is projected to experience the strongest growth, increasing by 36% and adding 284 residents to reach a total of 1,065. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 78% of population growth, reflecting demographic aging trends. However, population declines are projected for the cohorts aged 5-14 and 45-54.