Ayr

Ayr has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Ayr's population is around 9,265 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 278 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,987 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 9,250 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 25 validated new addresses since the Census date. Ayr has demonstrated resilient growth patterns over the past decade with a -0.2% compound annual growth rate, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 87.8% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year.

For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data. These state projections do not provide age category splits; hence where utilised, AreaSearch is applying proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections for each age cohort, released in 2023 based on 2022 data. Moving forward with demographic trends, lower quartile growth of regional areas nationally is anticipated, with the area expected to increase by 3 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a decrease of 0.1% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Ayr, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Ayr has seen approximately 17 new homes approved each year over the past five financial years, totalling 86 homes. In FY26 so far, 13 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.4 new residents arrive per new home annually between FY21 and FY25, indicating balanced supply and demand with stable market conditions. However, this figure has accelerated to 5.6 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting increasing demand and tightening supply. The average construction value of development projects is $308,000, reflecting more affordable housing options for purchasers compared to regional norms.

This year, Ayr has registered $19.1 million in commercial approvals, indicating balanced commercial development activity. Compared to the Rest of Qld, Ayr records 10.0% less building activity per person and ranks among the 27th percentile nationally, suggesting limited buyer options while strengthening demand for established properties. This level is below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New building activity consists of 80.0% detached dwellings and 20.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining Ayr's traditional low-density character focused on family homes.

The estimated population per dwelling approval is 777 people, indicating a quiet, low-activity development environment. With the population expected to remain stable or decline, Ayr should see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Ayr has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified two projects that may impact the area: Ayr Industrial Precinct, St Francis Catholic School Prep Classrooms Refurbishment, Bowen Basin Gas Pipeline, and Isaac And Whitsunday Regions Productive Water Supply. The following details those most relevant.

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Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market performance in Ayr lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Ayr's workforce comprises both white and blue-collar jobs, with manufacturing and industrial sectors prominent. As of September 2025, Ayr's unemployment rate is 5.9%.

In September 2025, 4,320 residents are employed, an unemployment rate of 1.8% higher than Rest of Qld's rate of 4.1%, and workforce participation is lower at 56.9%. Key industries include agriculture, forestry & fishing, manufacturing, and health care & social assistance. Ayr has a notable concentration in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with employment levels at 3.6 times the regional average. Construction's presence is limited, with 5.1% employment compared to 10.1% regionally.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Over the year to September 2025, Ayr's labour force decreased by 0.1%, and employment fell by 1.7%, raising unemployment by 1.5 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Qld saw employment growth of 1.7% and labour force growth of 2.1%, with unemployment rising by 0.3%. State-level data to 25-Nov shows Queensland's employment contracted by 0.01%, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, aligning with the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary between sectors. Applying these projections to Ayr's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.0% over five years and 11.5% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Ayr SA2 had a median income of $51,760 and an average income of $63,054. This is slightly below the national average. Rest of Qld had a median income of $50,780 and an average of $64,844. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 13.99% since financial year 2022, estimates as of September 2025 would be approximately $59,001 (median) and $71,875 (average). According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Ayr fall between the 18th and 30th percentiles nationally. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 30.3% of residents. Housing costs are modest with 88.2% of income retained, but total disposable income ranks at just the 23rd percentile nationally.

Ayr is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Ayr, as assessed in the latest Census, 83.6% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 16.5% consisting of semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This compares to Non-Metro Qld's figures of 89.5% houses and 10.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ayr stood at 41.7%, with mortgaged properties making up 27.2% and rented dwellings accounting for 31.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Ayr was $1,247, exceeding Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,213. The median weekly rent in Ayr was recorded at $230, compared to Non-Metro Qld's figure of $202. Nationally, Ayr's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Ayr features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 64.4% of all households, including 22.3% couples with children, 30.4% couples without children, and 10.4% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 35.6%, with lone person households at 32.8% and group households comprising 2.9%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Queensland average of 2.3.

Ayr faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.5%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 10.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (7.6%) and certificates (31.4%). Educational participation is high at 26.8%, with 10.8% in primary education, 9.4% in secondary education, and 2.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.8% in primary education, 9.4% in secondary education, and 2.3% pursuing tertiary education.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health performance in Ayr is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Ayr faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover stands at approximately 51% of Ayr's total population (~4,734 people), slightly lagging behind the average SA2 area. The most common medical conditions in Ayr are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 10.9 and 7.3% of residents respectively. However, 65.7% of Ayr residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 66.2% across Rest of Qld. Ayr has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 25.5%, with 2,366 people in this age group, compared to 24.3% in Rest of Qld. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Ayr ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ayr's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 86.1% of its population being citizens, 88.5% born in Australia, and 91.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion in Ayr, comprising 73.3% of the population, compared to 70.7% across Rest of Qld. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (26.3%), English (25.0%), and Italian (12.3%).

Notably, Spanish representation was higher at 1.1% in Ayr than regionally at 0.6%. Similarly, Australian Aboriginal representation was lower at 5.0% compared to the regional average of 8.1%, while German representation was slightly higher at 3.9% versus 3.5%.

Ayr hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Ayr's median age is 44 years, which is slightly higher than Queensland's average of 41 years, and considerably older than Australia's median age of 38 years. The age profile indicates that those aged 65-74 are particularly prevalent at 13.0%, while the 45-54 age group is comparatively smaller at 10.6% compared to Queensland's average. Between 2021 and present, the proportion of Ayr's population aged 35-44 has increased from 10.3% to 11.3%. Conversely, the proportion of those aged 45-54 has decreased from 12.4% to 10.6%. By 2041, significant demographic changes are projected for Ayr. The 75-84 age cohort is expected to grow by 37%, adding 284 residents and reaching a total of 1,065. Residents aged 65 and above will contribute to 78% of the population growth, reflecting the ongoing trend of demographic aging. Conversely, population declines are projected for those aged 5-14 and 45-54.