Ayr

Ayr has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Ayr's population is around 9,366 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 379 people (4.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,987 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 9,250 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 21 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 134 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Ayr's 4.2% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (3.8%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 87.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data, are adopted. It should be noted that these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence where utilised, AreaSearch is applying proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) for each age cohort. Regarding demographic trends, lower quartile growth of regional areas nationally is anticipated, with the area expected to increase by 3 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a decrease of 1.2% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Ayr, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Ayr has seen around 17 new homes approved each year, totalling 86 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 14 approvals have been recorded. At an average of 1.4 new residents per year arriving per new home over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply and demand appear well-balanced, creating stable market conditions, with recent figures showing this has accelerated to 5.6 people per dwelling over the past 2 financial years, suggesting increasing demand and tightening supply. Development projects average $308,000 in construction value—below regional norms—reflecting more affordable housing options for purchasers. Also, $19.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, suggesting balanced commercial development activity.

Relative to the Rest of Qld, Ayr records 10.0% less building activity (per person) and places within the 27th percentile of areas assessed nationally, meaning somewhat limited buyer options and strengthening demand for established properties. This level is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and pointing to possible planning constraints. New building activity consists of 80.0% detached dwellings and 20.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated count of 777 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

With the population expected to remain stable or decline, Ayr should see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Ayr has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 2 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Ayr Industrial Precinct, St Francis Catholic School Prep Classrooms Refurbishment, Bowen Pipeline Project, and Bowen Basin Gas Pipeline, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market performance in Ayr lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Ayr possesses a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with manufacturing and industrial sectors strongly represented, and an unemployment rate of 5.7%. As of December 2025, 4,270 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 1.7% above Regional Qld's rate of 4.0%, and workforce participation lags significantly (58.3% compared to Regional Qld's 65.4%). Based on Census responses, a low 5.1% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are agriculture, forestry & fishing, manufacturing, and health care & social assistance. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with employment levels at 3.6 times the regional average. Meanwhile, construction has a limited presence with 5.1% employment compared to 10.1% regionally. While local employment opportunities exist in the area, it appears many residents commute elsewhere for work, based on the count of Census working population to local population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.1% combined with employment decreasing by 1.5%, resulting in the unemployment rate rising by 1.4 percentage points. By comparison, Regional Qld recorded employment growth of 0.7%, labour force growth of 1.0%, and unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Ayr. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Ayr's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.0% over five years and 11.5% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Ayr SA2's median income among taxpayers is $53,014, with an average of $66,170. This is just below the national average, and compares to Regional Qld's median of $53,146 and average of $66,593. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $58,268 (median) and $72,727 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Ayr all fall between the 18th and 30th percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 30.3% of residents (2,837 people), aligning with the metropolitan region where this cohort likewise represents 31.7%. While housing costs are modest with 88.2% of income retained, the total disposable income ranks at just the 23rd percentile nationally.

Ayr is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Ayr, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 83.6% houses and 16.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional Qld's 76.4% houses and 23.6% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Ayr was well beyond that of Regional Qld, at 41.7%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (27.2%) or rented (31.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Regional Qld average at $1,247, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $230, compared to Regional Qld's $1,655 and $345. Nationally, Ayr's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Ayr features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 64.4% of all households, comprising 22.3% couples with children, 30.4% couples without children, and 10.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 35.6%, with lone person households at 32.8% and group households comprising 2.9% of the total. The median household size of 2.2 people is smaller than the Regional Qld average of 2.5.

Ayr faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (12.5%) substantially below the Australian average of 30.4%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 10.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 39.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (7.6%) and certificates (31.4%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.8% in primary education, 9.4% in secondary education, and 2.3% pursuing tertiary education.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Ayr's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Ayr's health metrics sit close to national benchmarks, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The level of common health conditions among the general population is somewhat typical, though higher than the national average among older cohorts, and the rate of private health cover slightly lags that of the average SA2 area at approximately 52% of the total population (~4,879 people).

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 10.9% and 7.3% of residents, respectively, while 65.7% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 67.6% across Regional Qld. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 26.3% of residents aged 65 and over (2,465 people), which is higher than the 20.4% in Regional Qld. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, though they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Ayr ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ayr was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 86.1% of its population being citizens, 88.5% born in Australia, and 91.9% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Ayr is Christianity, which makes up 73.3% of people in Ayr, compared to 52.2% across Regional Qld.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Ayr are Australian, comprising 26.3% of the population, English, comprising 25.0% of the population, and Italian, comprising 12.3% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 2.4%. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Spanish is notably overrepresented at 1.1% of Ayr (vs 0.3% regionally), Australian Aboriginal at 5.0% (vs 3.9%) and German at 3.9% (vs 4.7%).

Ayr hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

At 44 years, Ayr's median age is marginally above the Regional Qld average of 41 and similarly considerably older than Australia's 38 years. The age profile shows 65 - 74 year-olds are particularly prominent (13.4%), while the 45 - 54 group is comparatively smaller (10.1%) than in Regional Qld. In the period since 2021, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 10.3% to 11.5% of the population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 12.4% to 10.1% and the 5 to 14 group dropped from 11.6% to 10.3%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Ayr. The 75 to 84 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 28%, adding 235 residents to reach 1,065. Senior residents (65+) will drive 89% of population growth, underscoring demographic aging trends. On the other hand, population declines are projected for the 65 to 74 and 45 to 54 cohorts.