Ayr

Ayr has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Ayr's population is around 9,236 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 249 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,987 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 9,234 from the ABS as of June 2025 and an additional 15 validated new addresses since the Census date. Ayr's population density is 132 persons per square kilometer. Ayr's growth rate of 2.8% since census positions it within 0.6 percentage points of the SA3 area (3.4%). Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 97.4% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, released in 2023 based on 2021 data. These state projections do not provide age category splits; hence proportional growth weightings from ABS Greater Capital Region projections are applied for each age cohort. Ayr is expected to increase by 41 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 0.4% in total over the 16 years based on the latest annual ERP population numbers.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Ayr, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Ayr has seen approximately 17 new homes approved each year over the past five financial years, totalling 86 homes. In FY26 so far, 15 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.4 new residents arrived per new home annually between FY21 and FY25, indicating a balanced supply and demand with stable market conditions. However, this figure has increased to 5.6 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting growing demand and tightening supply. The average construction value of development projects in Ayr is $308,000, reflecting more affordable housing options compared to regional norms.

This year alone, $19.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating balanced commercial development activity. Compared to the Rest of Qld, Ayr records 10.0% less building activity per person, placing it among the 27th percentile nationally, which suggests limited buyer options but strengthening demand for established properties. This level is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New building activity consists of 80.0% detached dwellings and 20.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining Ayr's traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

The estimated count of 777 people per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Ayr is expected to grow by 39 residents through to 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Ayr has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified two projects likely to impact the area: Ayr Industrial Precinct, St Francis Catholic School Prep Classrooms Refurbishment, Bowen Pipeline Project, and Bowen Basin Gas Pipeline. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market performance in Ayr lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Ayr's workforce comprises both white and blue-collar jobs, with manufacturing and industrial sectors prominent. The unemployment rate stands at 5.7%. As of December 2025, Ayr has 4,270 employed residents, an unemployment rate of 1.7% higher than Regional Queensland's 4.0%, and a participation rate of 58.3%, compared to Regional Queensland's 64.5%.

Census data shows that only 5.1% of residents work from home. Key industries include agriculture, forestry & fishing, manufacturing, and health care & social assistance, with agriculture being particularly notable at 3.6 times the regional average. Construction employment is limited at 5.1%, compared to Regional Queensland's 10.1%. Many Ayr residents commute elsewhere for work.

Between December 2024 and December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.1% while employment fell by 1.5%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 1.4 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Queensland saw employment grow by 0.7%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ayr's industry mix suggests local employment could increase by 5.0% in five years and 11.5% in ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Ayr SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $53,014 and an average of $66,170. This is slightly below the national average. Comparatively, Regional Qld had a median income of $53,146 and an average of $66,593. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 11.36% since financial year 2023, estimates for March 2026 would be approximately $59,036 (median) and $73,687 (average). According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Ayr fall between the 18th and 30th percentiles nationally. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 30.3% of residents (2,798 people), similar to metropolitan regions where this cohort represents 31.7%. Housing costs are modest, with 88.2% of income retained, but total disposable income ranks at the 23rd percentile nationally.

Ayr is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Ayr's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 83.6% houses and 16.5% other dwellings. In comparison, Regional Qld had 76.4% houses and 23.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ayr was at 41.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 27.2% and rented ones at 31.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,247, below Regional Qld's average of $1,655. The median weekly rent in Ayr was $230, compared to Regional Qld's $345. Nationally, Ayr's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Ayr features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 64.4% of all households, including 22.3% couples with children, 30.4% couples without children, and 10.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 35.6%, with lone person households at 32.8% and group households comprising 2.9%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Regional Queensland average of 2.5.

Ayr faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.5%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (7.6%) and certificates (31.4%). Educational participation is high at 26.8%, with 10.8% in primary education, 9.4% in secondary education, and 2.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.8% in primary education, 9.4% in secondary education, and 2.3% pursuing tertiary education.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health outcomes in Ayr are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Ayr's health indicators show below-average results based on AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

The level of common health conditions among the general population is somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts. Private health cover stands at approximately 52% of the total population (~4,811 people), slightly lower than the average SA2 area. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (impacting 10.9% of residents) and mental health issues (7.3%), while 65.7% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 67.6% across Regional Qld. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. Ayr has 26.4% of residents aged 65 and over (2,441 people), higher than Regional Qld's 20.4%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than those of the broader population.

Ayr ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ayr's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 86.1% of its population being citizens, 88.5% born in Australia, and 91.9% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion in Ayr is Christianity, comprising 73.3% of the population, compared to 52.2% across Regional Qld. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups in Ayr are Australian (26.3%), English (25.0%), and Italian (12.3%), with Italians being notably higher than the regional average of 2.4%.

Ayr also has notable differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Spanish at 1.1% compared to 0.3% regionally, Australian Aboriginal at 5.0% compared to 3.9%, and German at 3.9% compared to 4.7%.

Ayr hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Ayr's median age is 44 years, which is slightly higher than Regional Queensland's average of 41 years and considerably older than Australia's median age of 38 years. The age profile reveals that those aged 65-74 are particularly prominent, comprising 13.3% of the population, while the 45-54 group makes up only 10.2%, compared to Regional Queensland. Between 2021 and present, the 35-44 age group has increased from 10.3% to 11.3% of Ayr's population. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 12.4% to 10.2%, and the 5-14 age group has dropped from 11.6% to 10.5%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Ayr. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to grow by 30%, adding 253 residents, reaching a total of 1,088. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 83% of population growth, emphasizing demographic aging trends. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 45-54 and 5-14 age cohorts.