Ayr

Ayr has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Ayr's population is approximately 9,366 as of February 2026. This figure reflects a growth of 379 people, representing a 4.2% increase since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 8,987. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 9,250 in June 2024 and an additional 21 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 134 persons per square kilometer, indicating significant space per person and potential for further development. Ayr's growth rate of 4.2% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area average of 3.8%, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 87.8% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth for the area.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections are used, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data. However, these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence proportional growth weightings aligned with ABS Greater Capital Region projections are applied where utilized. Demographic trends suggest lower quartile growth of regional areas nationally is anticipated, with the area expected to increase by 3 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a decrease of 1.2% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Ayr, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Ayr has seen approximately 17 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 86 homes. As of FY26, 14 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.4 new residents per year have arrived with each new home over the last five financial years (FY21 to FY25), indicating balanced supply and demand. However, this figure has increased to 5.6 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting growing demand and tightening supply. The average construction value of development projects in Ayr is $308,000, below regional norms, reflecting more affordable housing options for purchasers.

This year, $19.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating balanced commercial development activity. Compared to the Rest of Qld, Ayr records 10.0% less building activity per person and ranks among the 27th percentile nationally, suggesting limited buyer options but strengthening demand for established properties. This level is below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New building activity comprises 80.0% detached dwellings and 20.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining Ayr's traditional low density character focused on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

The estimated population per dwelling approval in Ayr is 777 people, reflecting its quiet development environment. With a stable or declining population expected, Ayr should see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Ayr has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified two projects likely impacting the area: Ayr Industrial Precinct, St Francis Catholic School Prep Classrooms Refurbishment, Bowen Pipeline Project, and Bowen Basin Gas Pipeline. The following details projects likely most relevant.

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The labour market performance in Ayr lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Ayr's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs, with significant representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate as of September 2025 was 5.9%. In September 2025, Ayr had 4,320 residents employed, an unemployment rate of 1.8% higher than Rest of Qld's rate of 4.1%, and workforce participation at 59.1%, compared to Rest of Qld's 65.7%.

Census data shows that only 5.1% of Ayr residents work from home. The key industries for employment are agriculture, forestry & fishing, manufacturing, and health care & social assistance. Agriculture, forestry & fishing has notable concentration with employment levels at 3.6 times the regional average. Construction employment is limited at 5.1%, compared to 10.1% regionally.

Many Ayr residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Over the year to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.1% and employment decreased by 1.7%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 1.5 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of Qld had employment growth of 1.7% and labour force growth of 2.1%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ayr's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.0% over five years and 11.5% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Ayr SA2 had a median income of $53,014 and an average income of $66,170. This is slightly below the national average. The Rest of Qld had a median income of $53,146 and an average of $66,593 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for Ayr SA2 as of September 2025 would be approximately $58,268 (median) and $72,727 (average). The 2021 Census figures indicate that household, family, and personal incomes in Ayr fall between the 18th and 30th percentiles nationally. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 30.3% of residents (2,837 people), which is similar to the metropolitan region where this cohort represents 31.7%. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 88.2% income retention, total disposable income in Ayr ranks at just the 23rd percentile nationally.

Ayr is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Ayr's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 83.6% houses and 16.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro Qld had 76.4% houses and 23.6% other dwellings. Ayr's home ownership rate was 41.7%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (27.2%) or rented (31.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Ayr was $1,247, lower than Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,655 and significantly below the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent figure in Ayr was $230, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $345 and substantially below the national figure of $375.

Ayr features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 64.4% of all households, including 22.3% couples with children, 30.4% couples without children, and 10.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up 35.6%, consisting of 32.8% lone person households and 2.9% group households. The median household size is 2.2 people, smaller than the Rest of Qld average of 2.5.

Ayr faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.5%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 39.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (7.6%) and certificates (31.4%). Educational participation is high, with 26.8% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.8% in primary education, 9.4% in secondary education, and 2.3% pursuing tertiary education.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Ayr's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Ayr's health metrics are close to national benchmarks, as assessed by AreaSearch using mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

The level of common health conditions among Ayr's general population is somewhat typical but higher than the national average for older cohorts. Private health cover is at approximately 52% of the total population (~4,879 people), slightly lagging behind the average SA2 area. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 10.9% and 7.3% of residents respectively. Conversely, 65.7% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 67.6% across Rest of Qld. Health outcomes among the working-age population in Ayr are broadly typical. The area has 26.3% of residents aged 65 and over (2,465 people), higher than the 20.4% in Rest of Qld. While health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, they rank lower nationally than those of the broader population.

Ayr ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ayr's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 86.1% of its population being citizens, 88.5% born in Australia, and 91.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Ayr, making up 73.3% of people, compared to 52.2% across Rest of Qld. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (26.3%), English (25.0%), and Italian (12.3%), with Italian being substantially higher than the regional average of 2.4%.

Notably, Ayr has overrepresentation of Spanish (1.1% vs regional 0.3%), Australian Aboriginal (5.0% vs 3.9%), and German (3.9% vs 4.7%) ethnic groups.

Ayr hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Ayr's median age is 44 years, slightly above Rest of Qld's average of 41 and considerably higher than Australia's 38 years. The age profile indicates that those aged 65-74 are particularly prominent at 13.4%, while the 45-54 group is smaller at 10.1% compared to Rest of Qld. Between 2021 and present, Ayr's population has seen changes in its age distribution: the 35-44 age group increased from 10.3% to 11.5%, the 45-54 cohort decreased from 12.4% to 10.1%, and the 5-14 group dropped from 11.6% to 10.3%. Population forecasts for Ayr in 2041 suggest significant demographic shifts, with the 75-84 age group projected to grow by 28%, adding 235 residents to reach 1,065. Residents aged 65 and above are expected to drive 89% of population growth, reflecting aging trends. Conversely, declines are forecast for the 65-74 and 45-54 age cohorts.