Ayr
Statistical Area - sa2

Ayr has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Ayr's population is around 9,265 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 278 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,987 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 9,250 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 25 validated new addresses since the Census date. Ayr has demonstrated resilient growth patterns over the past decade with a -0.2% compound annual growth rate. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 87.8% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year.

For areas not covered and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, based on 2021 data and released in 2023. These state projections do not provide age category splits; hence proportional growth weightings from ABS Greater Capital Region projections are applied where utilised. Demographic trends anticipate lower quartile growth of regional areas nationally by 2041, with Ayr expected to increase by 3 persons based on the latest population numbers, recording a decrease of 0.1% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Ayr, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Ayr has seen approximately 17 new homes approved each year over the past five financial years, totalling 86 homes. In the current financial year FY-26, 13 approvals have been recorded so far. Over these five years, an average of 1.4 new residents per year arrived for each new home constructed, indicating balanced supply and demand with stable market conditions. However, this figure has increased to 5.6 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting growing demand and tightening supply. The average construction value of development projects in Ayr is $308,000, which is below regional norms, reflecting more affordable housing options for purchasers.

This financial year has seen $19.1 million in commercial approvals registered, indicating balanced commercial development activity. Compared to the rest of Queensland, Ayr records 10.0% less building activity per person and ranks among the 28th percentile of areas assessed nationally, suggesting limited buyer options while demand for established properties strengthens. This level is below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New building activity consists of 80.0% detached dwellings and 20.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining Ayr's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

The estimated population per dwelling approval is 777 people, reflecting the area's quiet, low activity development environment. With population expected to remain stable or decline, Ayr should see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Ayr has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 40thth percentile nationally

Two projects identified by AreaSearch are likely to impact the area significantly: Ayr Industrial Precinct and St Francis Catholic School Prep Classrooms Refurbishment. Other notable projects include Bowen Basin Gas Pipeline and Isaac And Whitsunday Regions Productive Water Supply.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market performance in Ayr lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Ayr has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, prominent manufacturing and industrial sectors, and an unemployment rate of 6.0% as of June 2025. The town's employment figures show that 4,345 residents are working while its unemployment rate is 2.1 percentage points higher than the Rest of Queensland's rate of 3.9%.

Ayr's workforce participation is lower at 56.9%, compared to the Rest of Queensland's 59.1%. Key industries for employment among Ayr residents include agriculture, forestry & fishing, manufacturing, and health care & social assistance. Notably, employment in agriculture, forestry & fishing is 3.6 times the regional average. However, construction employment is limited at 5.1%, compared to the regional average of 10.1%.

While local jobs exist, many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. In the year leading up to June 2025, Ayr's labour force decreased by 2.2% and employment fell by 4.1%, resulting in an unemployment rate rise of 1.9 percentage points. By contrast, Rest of Queensland saw employment growth of 1.8%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 indicate that Ayr's employment mix suggests potential local growth of approximately 5.0% over five years and 11.5% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Ayr's median income among taxpayers is $51,760. The average income in Ayr for the same period is $63,054. These figures are just below the national averages. Rest of Qld has a median income of $50,780 and an average of $64,844 during this time. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 13.99% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes for Ayr as of September 2025 would be approximately $59,001 (median) and $71,875 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Ayr fall between the 18th and 30th percentiles nationally. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 30.3% of residents (2,807 people), similar to metropolitan regions where this cohort represents 31.7%. Housing costs in Ayr are modest, allowing for 88.2% of income to be retained. However, the total disposable income ranks at just the 23rd percentile nationally.

Ayr is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Ayr, as per the latest Census evaluation, 83.6% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 16.5% comprising semi-detached properties, apartments, and other dwelling types. In comparison, Non-Metro Qld had 89.5% houses and 10.5% other dwellings. Ayr's home ownership rate was 41.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 27.2% and rented ones at 31.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Ayr was $1,247, higher than Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,213. The median weekly rent figure in Ayr was $230, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $202. Nationally, Ayr's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,863 and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Ayr features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 64.4% of all households, including 22.3% couples with children, 30.4% couples without children, and 10.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 35.6%, with lone person households at 32.8% and group households comprising 2.9%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Qld average of 2.3.

Ayr faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area has lower university qualification rates at 12.5% compared to the Australian average of 30.4%. This indicates both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 10.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 1.3% and graduate diplomas at 1.2%. Vocational credentials are prominent, with 39.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (7.6%) and certificates (31.4%).

Educational participation is high at 26.8%, with 10.8% in primary education, 9.4% in secondary education, and 2.3% pursuing tertiary education. Ayr operates a network of 8 schools educating approximately 1,964 students. The educational mix includes 3 primary, 3 secondary, and 2 K-12 schools.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health performance in Ayr is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Ayr faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover stands at approximately 51% of Ayr's total population (~4,734 people), slightly below the average SA2 area rate. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (impacting 10.9% of residents) and mental health issues (7.3%), while 65.7% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 66.2% across Rest of Qld. Ayr has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 25.5% (2,366 people), compared to the Rest of Qld's 24.3%. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Ayr ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ayr had a cultural diversity index below the average, with 86.1% citizens, 88.5% born in Australia, and 91.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 73.3%, compared to 70.7% regionally. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (26.3%), English (25.0%), and Italian (12.3%).

Notably, Spanish representation was higher at 1.1% in Ayr versus 0.6% regionally, while Australian Aboriginal was lower at 5.0% compared to 8.1%, and German was slightly higher at 3.9% versus 3.5%.

Ayr hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Ayr's median age is 44 years, slightly higher than Queensland's average of 41 years and considerably older than Australia's median age of 38 years. Ayr's age profile shows that those aged 65-74 are particularly prominent, comprising 13.0% of the population, while the 45-54 age group is smaller at 10.6%. Between 2021 and present, the 35 to 44 age group has increased from 10.3% to 11.3%, while the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 12.4% to 10.6%. By 2041, Ayr's population is forecasted to undergo significant demographic changes. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 37%, adding 284 residents and reaching a total of 1,065. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 78% of this growth, indicating a trend towards an aging population. Conversely, the 5-14 and 45-54 age groups are projected to decline in population.