Forestier - Tasman

An assessment of population growth drivers in Forestier - Tasman reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

According to research conducted by AreaSearch, the resident population of Forestier - Tasman stands at approximately 2,738 as of May 2026. This represents a growth of 145 people (5.6%) from the 2,593 residents counted in the 2021 Census. This population shift is calculated from the ABS June 2025 estimated resident population of 2,738 alongside 137 validated new addresses registered since the Census. With this population level, the region has a density of 4.1 persons per square kilometer, indicating a spacious residential environment. The area's 5.6% expansion rate since the 2021 census outpaced the Tasmanian state average of 4.0% as well as the Rest of Tas. region, establishing it as a local growth leader. The primary driver of this demographic expansion was interstate migration, which accounted for roughly 84.3% of the total population growth in recent times.

AreaSearch utilizes population projections from the ABS and Geoscience Australia published in 2024, using 2022 as a baseline. For SA2 regions lacking this coverage, or to project age distribution changes beyond 2032, regional and LGA projections from the Tasmanian Government (published in 2022 using a 2021 baseline) are applied via a weighted aggregation method translating LGA-level growth to SA2 boundaries. Looking at future demographic trends, these projections forecast a population reduction for the area, which is expected to contract by 187 persons by 2041. Conversely, expansion is projected within specific age brackets, particularly those aged 85 and over, which is expected to grow by 189 people.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Forestier - Tasman when compared nationally

Forestier - Tasman averages approximately 30 residential building approvals annually, with 151 residential projects approved during the 5 financial years spanning FY-21 to FY-25, and 11 approvals recorded so far in FY-26. Given that the area averaged 1.2 new residents per approved dwelling over the 5 financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, residential supply and demand appear closely aligned, supporting a balanced market. The average estimated construction cost for these new dwellings is $263,000. Furthermore, commercial building approvals total $1.4 million for the current financial year, representing a low volume of commercial development.

Compared to the Rest of Tas. region, Forestier - Tasman shows 18.0% lower building approval activity on a per-capita basis, though it ranks in the 87th percentile among all analyzed locations across the country. This high national percentile suggests robust developer interest in the area. Additionally, all recent building approvals consist of standalone houses, maintaining the low-density character of the area and appealing to buyers seeking detached homes with extra space. The metric of approximately 97 people per approved dwelling highlights the low-density profile of the locality.

Faced with projections of a stable or contracting population, Forestier - Tasman is likely to experience minimal housing supply pressures, which may create advantageous conditions for home buyers.

Forestier - Tasman has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 6thth percentile nationally

Local infrastructure projects, major works, and planning updates can significantly influence regional performance. AreaSearch has identified 0 major projects expected to impact this area. Notable regional initiatives include the Tasmanian Irrigation Schemes: Tranche 3, the Cethana Pumped Hydro Energy Storage Project, the Marinus Link, and the Telstra InfraCo Intercity Fibre Network, with key details of these projects provided below.

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Employment performance in Forestier - Tasman has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

The labor force in Forestier - Tasman features skilled workers, with prominent representation in lifestyle and retail industries, alongside an unemployment rate of 4.8% and an estimated 11.0% job growth over the preceding year. As of March 2026, there are 1,089 employed residents. The unemployment rate is 0.9% higher than the 3.9% recorded in Regional Tas., and the participation rate of 46.3% is notably lower than the 58.8% average for Regional Tas. Census statistics indicate that a moderate 17.0% of local workers operated from home, though this figure may reflect the influence of Covid-19 pandemic restrictions.

The primary sectors employing local residents are agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and accommodation & food. The locality features a strong concentration of jobs in arts & recreation, with its employment share in this sector reaching 6.7 times the regional average. Conversely, retail trade is underrepresented, employing only 4.9% of the local workforce compared to 10.1% across Regional Tas. The relationship between the number of local jobs recorded in the Census and the resident workforce suggests that local employment opportunities are relatively constrained.

Based on analysis of SALM and ABS statistics by AreaSearch, employment in the region grew by 11.0% and the total labor force grew by 10.7% during the year ending March 2026, leading to a 0.2 percentage point reduction in the unemployment rate. By comparison, Regional Tas. experienced a 1.8% increase in employment, a 1.7% expansion in the labor force, and a marginal decline in unemployment. National employment projections released in May-25 by Jobs and Skills Australia provide context for potential future labor demand in Forestier - Tasman. These five-year and ten-year forecasts have been applied to the local industry mix to model growth. Nationally, employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with substantial variance among different sectors. Applying these industry projections to the local workforce structure indicates that employment in Forestier - Tasman would grow by 5.7% over five years and 12.2% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

According to the latest ATO statistics compiled by AreaSearch for financial year 2023, personal incomes in the Forestier - Tasman SA2 remain below national benchmarks. Taxpayers in this area recorded a median income of $39,663 and an average income of $54,545, compared to Regional Tas. figures of $49,689 (median) and $59,358 (average). Adjusting for a Wage Price Index increase of 10.95% since financial year 2023 yields updated estimates of approximately $44,006 for median income and $60,518 for average income as of March 2026. Data from the 2021 Census indicates that household, family, and individual incomes in Forestier - Tasman are positioned between the 0th and 4th percentiles nationally. The dominant weekly income bracket is $400 - 799, containing 35.7% of residents (977 people), which contrasts with regional trends where 28.5% of the population falls into the $1,500 - 2,999 range. Tight financial conditions are common, with 47.6% of households managing on weekly incomes under $800. Although housing costs are relatively low, leaving residents with 88.3% of their income, total disposable income sits in the 3rd percentile nationwide.

Forestier - Tasman is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

According to the latest Census, the housing stock in Forestier - Tasman is composed of 96.3% standalone houses and 3.7% other dwelling types (such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and alternative structures), compared to 89.9% houses and 10.1% other dwellings in Regional Tas. The home ownership rate in Forestier - Tasman is 59.6%, which is higher than the regional average, with the remaining residential properties being mortgaged (25.5%) or rented (14.9%). The median monthly mortgage payment of $1,083 is lower than the Regional Tas. average, while the median weekly rent of $250 matches the Regional Tas. median of $250 (compared to mortgage repayments of $1,274 and rent of $250 regionally). On a national scale, mortgage repayments in Forestier - Tasman are lower than the Australian median of $1,863, and weekly rents are below the national median of $375.

Forestier - Tasman features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households represent 59.8% of all households in the area, consisting of couples with children at 14.8%, couples without children at 36.1%, and single-parent households at 8.1%. Non-family households account for the remaining 40.2%, with single-person households representing 37.9% and group households making up 2.2%. The median household size is 2.0 people, which is smaller than the Regional Tas. average of 2.3.

Forestier - Tasman faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

Educational attainment levels in Forestier - Tasman are lower than regional averages, with 21.1% of residents aged 15 and over holding a university degree, compared to 30.4% across Australia. Among university qualifications, bachelor degrees are most common at 13.3%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 5.4% and graduate diplomas at 2.4%. Vocational and technical qualifications are widely held, with 38.9% of residents aged 15 and over holding credentials in these areas, consisting of advanced diplomas at 10.2% and certificates at 28.7%.

A significant proportion of the local population, totaling 22.0%, is enrolled in formal studies. This enrollment includes 7.8% in primary schools, 6.9% in secondary schools, and 2.3% in tertiary institutions.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health performance in Forestier - Tasman is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health metrics analyzed by AreaSearch, focusing on mortality rates and the prevalence of chronic health conditions across various age groups, indicate notable challenges for Forestier - Tasman. The rate of private health insurance coverage is low, with approximately 47% of the population (~1,281 people) holding cover. This is lower than the 49.1% recorded across Regional Tas. and the national average of 55.7%.

Arthritis and mental health conditions are the most prevalent health issues reported, affecting 15.5% and 10.9% of residents respectively. Meanwhile, 55.5% of the population reported no chronic medical conditions, compared to 62.0% in Regional Tas. The local working-age cohort faces distinct health difficulties, showing higher rates of chronic illness. Residents aged 65 and over make up 38.2% of the population (1,046 people), which is higher than the Regional Tas. average of 24.9%. Seniors in the area experience above-average health outcomes, with their national health rankings exceeding those of the general local population.

Forestier - Tasman is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Forestier - Tasman exhibits lower levels of cultural diversity than average, with citizens making up 88.0% of the population, 85.7% born in Australia, and 96.9% speaking only English at home. Christianity is the dominant religious affiliation, representing 40.4% of the population. The most distinct statistical overrepresentation is found in the Other category, which accounts for 0.6% of residents compared to 0.7% across Regional Tas.

With respect to family ancestry, the three most common backgrounds reported in Forestier - Tasman are English at 34.0%, Australian at 31.0%, and Irish at 8.3%. There are also distinct differences in the representation of other ethnic backgrounds, with Welsh ancestry recorded at 0.9% (compared to 0.4% regionally), Australian Aboriginal ancestry at 4.4% (compared to 4.1% regionally), and Dutch ancestry at 1.4% (compared to 1.7% regionally).

Forestier - Tasman ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Forestier - Tasman is 57, which is older than the Regional Tas. median of 45 and the Australian median of 38. Compared to Regional Tas., the area has a higher proportion of residents in the 65 - 74 age bracket (22.1%) and a lower proportion in the 25 - 34 bracket (5.9%). The share of residents aged 65 - 74 is higher than the national average of 9.4%. Since the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 cohort has increased from 9.2% to 12.4% of the population, and the 15 to 24 cohort has grown from 6.8% to 8.3%. In contrast, the 55 to 64 group declined from 22.0% to 17.6%, and the 5 to 14 cohort fell from 7.6% to 6.6%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections suggest major changes in the age structure of the population, with the 85 and over cohort projected to grow by 167%, adding 167 people to total 267. This aging trend is highlighted by the fact that residents aged 65 and older account for 100% of the projected growth, while the 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 brackets are expected to contract.