Forestier - Tasman

An assessment of population growth drivers in Forestier - Tasman reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Forestier - Tasman's population, as of May 2026, is approximately 2,738 people. This figure represents an increase of 145 individuals since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 2,593 people. The growth is inferred from the estimated resident population of 2,738 in June 2025 and an additional 137 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 4.1 persons per square kilometer. Forestier - Tasman's population growth rate of 5.6% since the 2021 census exceeds both the state average of 4.0% and that of the Rest of Tasmania, positioning it as a region with significant growth. Interstate migration contributed approximately 84.3% of overall population gains during recent periods in Forestier - Tasman.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data and to estimate growth by age group post-2032, Tasmania State Government's Regional/LGA projections are adopted, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Future projections indicate a decline in overall population for Forestier - Tasman. By 2041, the area's population is expected to decrease by 187 persons according to this methodology. However, specific age cohorts are anticipated to grow, notably the 85 and over age group, which is projected to increase by 189 people.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Forestier - Tasman when compared nationally

Forestier - Tasman has seen approximately 30 dwellings granted development approval annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25151 homes were approved, with an additional 10 approved so far in FY-26. On average, each dwelling constructed over these years attracted about 1.6 new residents per year. However, this figure has decreased to 0.8 people per dwelling over the past two financial years.

The average construction cost of new properties is $263,000. This year, Forestier - Tasman has recorded $1.4 million in commercial development approvals. Compared to Rest of Tas., Forestier - Tasman shows 18.0% less building activity per person but ranks among the 87th percentile nationally, indicating strong developer confidence. All recent developments have been detached houses, maintaining the area's low density character and appealing to space-seeking buyers.

With around 96 people per approval, Forestier - Tasman reflects a low-density area. Population projections suggest stability or decline, which should ease housing demand pressures and benefit potential buyers.

Forestier - Tasman has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 6thth percentile nationally

No infrastructure projects have been identified by AreaSearch that could impact the area. Key projects include Tasmanian Irrigation Schemes: Tranche 3, Cethana Pumped Hydro Energy Storage Project, Marinus Link, and Telstra InfraCo Intercity Fibre Network.

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Forestier - Tasman shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Forestier-Tasman has a skilled workforce with notable representation in lifestyle and retail sectors. The unemployment rate was 4.7% as of December 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.6%.

There were 1,049 residents employed by December 2025, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%, which is 0.9% higher than Regional Tas.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation was significantly lower at 44.6%, compared to Regional Tas.'s 58.7%. According to Census responses, 17.0% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Key industries employing residents include agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and accommodation & food services.

The area has a particular specialisation in arts & recreation, with an employment share 6.7 times the regional level. In contrast, retail trade employed only 4.9% of local workers, below Regional Tas.'s 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population counts. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 4.6%, while labour force grew by 4.0%, resulting in a decrease of 0.6 percentage points in unemployment rate. Comparatively, Regional Tas.'s employment growth was 1.8%, labour force expansion was 1.5%, and unemployment fell by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, published in May-25, suggest potential future demand within Forestier-Tasman. Over five years, national employment is projected to grow by 6.6%, and over ten years by 13.7%. Applying these projections to Forestier-Tasman's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 5.7% over five years and 12.2% over ten years, though this extrapolation does not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Forestier - Tasman SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $39,663 and an average of $54,545. This is lower than the national average. Regional Tas., in comparison, had a median income of $49,689 and an average of $59,358. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.95% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for March 2026 would be approximately $44,006 (median) and $60,518 (average). Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Forestier - Tasman fall between the 0th and 4th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that 35.7% of residents (977 people) earn between $400 and $799 per week, unlike regional trends where 28.5% fall within the $1,500 to $2,999 range. This suggests a prevalence of lower-income residents, with 47.6% earning less than $800 per week, indicating constrained household budgets across much of the area. While housing costs are modest, with 88.3% of income retained, total disposable income ranks at just the 3rd percentile nationally.

Forestier - Tasman is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Forestier - Tasman's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, comprised 96.3% houses and 3.7% other dwellings. Regionally in Tasmania, this was 89.9% houses and 10.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Forestier - Tasman stood at 59.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 25.5% and rented at 14.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,083, below Regional Tas.'s average of $1,274. Median weekly rent in Forestier - Tasman was $250, matching Regional Tas.'s figure but significantly lower than the national average of $375. Nationally, mortgage repayments averaged $1,863.

Forestier - Tasman features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 59.8% of all households, including 14.8% couples with children, 36.1% couples without children, and 8.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 40.2%, with lone person households at 37.9% and group households comprising 2.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.0 people, which is smaller than the Regional Tasmanian average of 2.3.

Forestier - Tasman faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

In Forestier-Tasman trail region, as of the latest available data, 21.1% of residents aged 15 years and over hold university degrees, compared to the national average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 5.4% and graduate diplomas at 2.4%. Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 38.9% of residents aged 15 years and over holding such qualifications. This includes advanced diplomas held by 10.2% of the population and certificates held by 28.7%.

A significant portion of the population is actively engaged in education, with 22.0% pursuing formal learning. This includes 7.8% in primary education, 6.9% in secondary education, and 2.3% pursuing tertiary education.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health performance in Forestier - Tasman is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Forestier - Tasman faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (~1,281 people), compared to Regional Tasmania's 49.1% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 15.5% of residents) and mental health issues (10.9%), while 55.5% report having no medical ailments, compared to Regional Tasmania's 62.0%. Working-age population health challenges are notable due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 38.2%, with 1,046 people, compared to Regional Tasmania's 24.9%. Health outcomes among seniors in Forestier - Tasman rank above average nationally.

Forestier - Tasman is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Forestier-Tasman was found to have below average cultural diversity, with 88.0% of its population being citizens, 85.7% born in Australia, and 96.9% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion in Forestier-Tasman is Christianity, comprising 40.4% of the population. However, there was an overrepresentation in Other religions, which made up 0.6% compared to 0.7% regionally.

The top three ancestry groups were English (34.0%), Australian (31.0%), and Irish (8.3%). Notably, Welsh (0.9%) was overrepresented compared to the regional average of 0.4%, as were Australian Aboriginal (4.4%) and Dutch (1.4%).

Forestier - Tasman ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Forestier-Tasman has a median age of 57, which is significantly higher than the Regional Tasmanian figure of 45 and the Australian median of 38. Compared to Regional Tasmania, Forestier-Tasman has a higher proportion of residents aged 65-74 (22.1%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (5.9%). This concentration of residents aged 65-74 is well above the national figure of 9.4%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the proportion of residents aged 75 to 84 has grown from 9.2% to 12.4%, while the proportion of residents aged 15 to 24 increased from 6.8% to 8.3%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 55 to 64 has declined from 22.0% to 17.6%, and the proportion of residents aged 5 to 14 dropped from 7.6% to 6.6%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Forestier-Tasman's age structure. The cohort aged 85 and over is projected to grow by 167%, adding 167 residents to reach a total of 267. This growth will be driven entirely by residents aged 65 and older representing all anticipated population growth. In contrast, the cohorts aged 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 are expected to experience population declines.