Forestier - Tasman

An assessment of population growth drivers in Forestier - Tasman reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Forestier-Tasman's population is approximately 2,890 as of November 2025. This represents an increase of 297 people (11.5%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,593. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 2,722 in June 2024 and an additional 131 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 4.4 persons per square kilometer. Forestier-Tasman's growth rate exceeded the state (4.8%) and non-metro areas, making it a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 85.7% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and post-2032 growth by age group estimation, Tasmania State Government's Regional/LGA projections are adopted with adjustments made using a weighted aggregation method from LGA to SA2 levels. Future population dynamics indicate an overall decline by 2041, with the area's population expected to shrink by 207 persons. However, specific age cohorts like the 85 and over group are projected to grow by 172 people.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Forestier - Tasman when compared nationally

Forestier-Tasman has experienced approximately 30 dwelling approvals annually. Between FY21 and FY25151 homes were approved, with an additional 7 approved in FY26 to date. Over the past five financial years, there was an average of 1.6 new residents per year per dwelling constructed. However, this rate decreased to 0.8 people per dwelling over the past two financial years.

The average construction cost value for new properties is $263,000. In FY26, $1.4 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded. Compared to Rest of Tas., Forestier-Tasman has 18.0% less building activity per person but ranks among the 87th percentile nationally, indicating strong developer confidence. All recent developments have been detached houses, maintaining the area's low-density nature and appealing to space-seeking buyers.

With approximately 96 people per approval, Forestier-Tasman reflects a developing area. Population projections indicate stability or decline, which should reduce housing demand pressures, benefiting potential buyers.

Forestier - Tasman has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 10thth percentile nationally

AreaSearch has identified no projects that could impact the area's performance. Key initiatives include Tasmanian Irrigation Schemes: Tranche 3, Cethana Pumped Hydro Energy Storage Project, Marinus Link, and Telstra InfraCo Intercity Fibre Network.

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The labour market performance in Forestier - Tasman lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Forestier-Tasman has an unemployment rate of 4.3% as of September 2025. It has a skilled workforce with notable representation in lifestyle and retail sectors.

There are 1,020 residents employed while the unemployment rate is 0.5% higher than Rest of Tas.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation lags at 43.0%, compared to Rest of Tas.'s 55.7%. Dominant employment sectors include agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and accommodation & food. Arts & recreation has notably high concentration with employment levels at 6.7 times the regional average.

Retail trade is under-represented at 4.9% compared to Rest of Tas.'s 10.1%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, labour force decreased by 2.1% and employment declined by 1.9%, resulting in a 0.2 percentage point fall in unemployment rate. In Rest of Tas., employment grew by 0.7% and unemployment fell by 0.2 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows TAS employment contracted by 0.35% (losing 2,010 jobs) with a state unemployment rate of 4.1%. National unemployment rate is 4.3%, lagging national employment growth of 0.14%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 12.2% over ten years for Forestier-Tasman, using industry-specific projections applied to local employment mix.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released in financial year 2022, Forestier-Tasman SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $38,099 and an average income of $48,582. These figures are lower than the national averages of $47,358 and $57,384 respectively for Rest of Tas. By September 2025, adjusted for Wage Price Index growth of 13.83%, median income is estimated at approximately $43,368 and average income at $55,301. Census 2021 data shows incomes in Forestier-Tasman fall between the 0th and 4th percentiles nationally. Income distribution reveals 35.7% of individuals earn within the $400-$799 range, differing from the regional norm where the $1,500-$2,999 category is prevalent at 28.5%. With 47.6% earning under $800 weekly, income constraints significantly impact local spending patterns. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 88.3% income retention, total disposable income ranks at the 3rd percentile nationally.

Forestier - Tasman is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Forestier - Tasman, as per the latest Census, consisted of 96.3% houses and 3.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro Tas. had 96.9% houses and 3.1% other dwellings. The home ownership level in Forestier - Tasman was higher at 59.6%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (25.5%) or rented (14.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,083, lower than Non-Metro Tas.'s average of $1,100. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $250, matching Non-Metro Tas.'s figure. Nationally, Forestier - Tasman's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Forestier - Tasman features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 59.8% of all households, including 14.8% couples with children, 36.1% couples without children, and 8.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 40.2%, with lone person households at 37.9% and group households comprising 2.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.0 people, which aligns with the average in the Rest of Tas.

Forestier - Tasman faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

In the Forestier-Tasman trail region, as of a certain date, 21.1% of residents aged 15 and above held university degrees, compared to Australia's 30.4%. This indicates potential for educational development. Bachelor degrees were most prevalent at 13.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials were prominent, with 38.9% of residents aged 15 and above holding them.

Advanced diplomas accounted for 10.2%, while certificates made up 28.7%. A significant 22.0% of the population was actively pursuing formal education at that time, including 7.8% in primary education, 6.9% in secondary education, and 2.3% in tertiary education.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health performance in Forestier - Tasman is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Forestier-Tasman faces significant health challenges with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. The private health cover rate is notably low at approximately 46% of the total population (around 1,326 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

Arthritis and mental health issues are prevalent in the area, impacting 15.5% and 10.9% of residents respectively. Conversely, 55.5% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, slightly lower than the 56.9% reported in the Rest of Tas. The region has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 37.0% (1,069 people). Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are above average, even outperforming the general population in health metrics.

Forestier - Tasman is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Forestier-Tasman was found to have below average cultural diversity, with 88.0% of its population being citizens, 85.7% born in Australia, and 96.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 40.4% of Forestier-Tasman's population. The most notable overrepresentation was seen in the 'Other' category, which accounted for 0.6% compared to 0.5% across the rest of Tasmania.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (34.0%), Australian (31.0%), and Irish (8.3%). Notable divergences included Welsh at 0.9% (vs regional 0.7%), Australian Aboriginal at 4.4% (vs regional 3.5%), and Dutch at 1.4% (vs regional 1.3%).

Forestier - Tasman ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Forestier-Tasman has a median age of 57, which is significantly higher than Rest of Tas.'s figure of 45 and Australia's median age of 38. Compared to Rest of Tas., Forestier-Tasman has a higher proportion of residents aged 65-74 (22.2%), but fewer residents aged 25-34 (5.6%). This concentration of 65-74 year-olds is notably above the national average of 9.4%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 9.2% to 12.4%, while the 15 to 24 cohort has risen from 6.8% to 8.0%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has decreased from 22.0% to 19.1%, and the 25 to 34 group has fallen from 6.7% to 5.6%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Forestier-Tasman's age structure. The 85+ cohort is expected to grow by 220%, adding 155 residents to reach a total of 226. This growth will be primarily driven by an aging population, with residents aged 65 and older accounting for all anticipated growth. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.