Emerald (Qld)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Emerald reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population of the suburb of Emerald (Qld) is around 16,076. This reflects an increase of 1,172 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 14,904. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 16,017 following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 220 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 19.3 persons per square kilometer. Emerald's growth rate of 7.9% since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA3 area (6.2%) and SA4 region, indicating it as a growth leader. Natural growth contributed approximately 62.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas migration and interstate migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023 based on 2021 data are used. However, these state projections do not provide age category splits, so AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings in line with ABS Greater Capital Region projections for each age cohort released in 2023 using 2022 data. Future population dynamics anticipate an increase just below the median of Australian non-metropolitan areas, with the area expected to expand by 1,426 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an overall increase of 8.4% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Emerald according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Emerald has averaged approximately 20 new dwelling approvals per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 100 homes were approved, with an additional 23 approved in FY-26 to date. This results in about 9.3 new residents per year for every home built over the past five financial years.

Commercial development approvals totaled $11.8 million in FY-26. Emerald maintains similar construction rates per person compared to the rest of Queensland, indicating a balanced market. However, building activity has slowed recently, suggesting potential planning limitations. The area's dwelling approvals are predominantly detached houses (94.0%) with townhouses or apartments comprising 6.0%, reflecting its low-density character focused on family homes.

There are estimated to be 1511 people per dwelling approval in Emerald. By 2041, the population is projected to grow by 1351 residents based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Emerald has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 39thth percentile nationally

Eleven projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Key projects include Codenwarra Road Mixed-Use Development Site, Nogoa Rise Estate Residential Development, 91 Gray Street Apartment Development, and Emerald Regional Botanic Gardens Upgrade. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Emerald demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Emerald has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. Its unemployment rate was 2.8% as of June 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.7%. This is below Rest of Qld's rate of 3.9%, but above its workforce participation rate of 59.1%. Emerald's workforce participates at a rate of 73.8%. Key employment sectors include mining, retail trade, and education & training.

Mining accounts for 5.3 times the regional level of employment in Emerald. However, health care & social assistance is under-represented, with only 7.9% of Emerald's workforce compared to Rest of Qld's 16.1%. Some residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 4.7%, labour force by 5.0%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest potential future demand within Emerald. Over five years, national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% and over ten years by 13.7%. Applying these projections to Emerald's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.1% over five years and 11.5% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Emerald's median income among taxpayers is $63,223, with an average of $79,211. This ranks high compared to Rest of Qld's median of $50,780 and average of $64,844. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 13.99% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $72,068 (median) and $90,293 (average). Census data indicates household, family and personal incomes in Emerald rank between the 78th and 81st percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows 37.1% of residents earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly. Economic strength is evident with 31.6% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000. After housing costs, residents retain 87.2% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Emerald is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Emerald's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 81.2% houses and 18.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro Qld had 86.6% houses and 13.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Emerald was at 16.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 38.6% and rented ones at 44.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,647, higher than Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,500. Median weekly rent in Emerald was $300, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $250. Nationally, Emerald's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,647 against Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Emerald has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 73.7% of all households, consisting of 37.4% couples with children, 25.4% couples without children, and 9.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 26.3%, with lone person households at 22.9% and group households comprising 3.4%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Rest of Qld average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Emerald fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area has lower university qualification rates at 17.4%, compared to Australia's average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.6%) and certificates (35.2%). Educational participation is high at 35.3%, comprising primary education (15.0%), secondary education (10.6%), and tertiary education (2.8%).

Emerald operates a network of 10 schools educating approximately 8,028 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 961) and balanced educational opportunities. The schools include five primary, three secondary, and two K-12 institutions. As an education hub, the area has 49.9 school places per 100 residents, above the regional average of 32.9, attracting students from surrounding communities.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Emerald's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Health outcomes data shows excellent results across Emerald, with younger cohorts particularly experiencing low prevalence of common health conditions.

Approximately 59% (9,418 people) have private health cover, a rate exceptionally high compared to other areas. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 7.8 and 7.5% of residents respectively. A total of 76.0% report no medical ailments, higher than the Rest of Qld's 74.5%. Emerald has 8.9% (1,430 people) aged 65 and over, lower than Rest of Qld's 10.7%. However, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Emerald ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Emerald's population showed lower cultural diversity, with 82.4% being citizens, 84.0% born in Australia, and 90.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 55.7%, compared to 56.8% across Rest of Qld. The top three ancestral groups were Australian (29.4%), English (28.2%), and Irish (8.4%).

Notably, Maori (1.7%) and New Zealand (1.2%) ethnicities were overrepresented in Emerald compared to regional averages of 1.4% and 0.9%, respectively. South African ethnicity was also higher at 0.8%.

Emerald hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Emerald's median age is 32 years, which is considerably lower than the Rest of Qld average of 41 years and substantially under the Australian median of 38 years. Relative to Rest of Qld, Emerald has a higher concentration of residents aged 25-34 at 16.7%, but fewer residents aged 65-74 at 6.1%. Between the 2021 Census and the present day, the percentage of residents aged 65 to 74 has grown from 4.7% to 6.1%. Conversely, the percentage of residents aged 5 to 14 has declined from 17.6% to 15.6%, and the percentage of residents aged 45 to 54 has dropped from 12.6% to 11.5%. Demographic modeling suggests that Emerald's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 25 to 34 cohort is projected to grow strongly, adding 659 residents to reach a total of 3,344. In contrast, both the 55 to 64 and 15 to 24 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.