Ainslie
Statistical Area - sa2

Ainslie is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Ainslie's population was approximately 5,364 as of August 2025. This figure reflected a decrease of 12 people from the 2021 Census total of 5,376, indicating a 0.2% decline. The estimated resident population in June 2024 was 5,362, with an additional 11 validated new addresses since the Census date contributing to this change. This resulted in a population density ratio of 1,515 persons per square kilometer, surpassing the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration was the primary driver behind Ainslie's recent population growth.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered and years post-2032, age group growth rates from the ACT Government's SA2 area projections were used, also based on 2022. According to population projections, Ainslie is expected to increase by 18 persons to reach a total of 5,382 by 2041, marking an overall increase of 0.2% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Ainslie, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Ainslie has seen approximately 15 new homes approved annually. Development approval data from the ABS covers financial years, with 75 homes approved over the past five financial years, from FY20 to FY25. In FY26, two approvals have been recorded so far. Despite population decline in recent years, development activity has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a balanced market with good buyer choice.

New homes are built at an average construction cost of $402,000, higher than regional norms due to quality-focused development. This financial year, $2.0 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Ainslie has significantly lower building activity, at 78.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes. The area shows a higher proportion of detached dwellings, with 71.0%, and attached dwellings at 29.0%, maintaining its traditional suburban character focused on family homes.

With around 354 people per approval, Ainslie indicates a mature market. By 2041, the population is expected to grow by approximately 11 residents. At current development rates, new housing supply should meet demand comfortably, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current projections.

Ainslie has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 30 projects potentially influencing this region. Notable ones include The Foothills - Campbell (Former CSIRO Site), Academy Close Redevelopment - Campbell, Light Rail Extension Planning, and Marcus Clarke Street Office Complex. Relevant projects are listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Ainslie has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Ainslie's workforce consists of highly educated individuals with professional services being strongly represented. The unemployment rate in the area was 4.1% as of June 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 2.1% over the preceding year.

In June 2025, there were 2,834 residents employed, and the unemployment rate stood at 4.1%, which is 0.7% higher than the Australian Capital Territory's (ACT) rate of 3.4%. Workforce participation in Ainslie lagged behind ACT, with a participation rate of 62.1% compared to ACT's 69.6%. Key industries for employment among residents were public administration & safety, professional & technical services, and education & training.

However, health care & social assistance had limited presence in the area, with only 7.8% employment compared to the regional average of 11.7%. Analysis based on AreaSearch data from SALM and ABS shows that between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 2.1%, while the labour force grew by 1.7%. This led to a decrease in unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points. In comparison, ACT recorded employment growth of 1.9% and a fall in unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points over the same period. State-level data from Sep-25 indicates that ACT employment contracted by 0.33%, losing 1,480 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.5% and lags behind the national employment growth of 0.26%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May 2025, project an expansion of employment by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Ainslie's employment mix suggests a local growth rate of approximately 6.3% over five years and 12.9% over ten years. However, it is important to note that these projections are based on simple weighting extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localised population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

AreaSearch's latest data for financial year 2022 shows Ainslie had a median taxpayer income of $69,523 and an average of $85,943. Nationally, these figures are very high compared to the Australian Capital Territory's median of $68,678 and average of $83,634. By March 2025, adjusting for a 10.78% increase in wages since financial year 2022, estimated incomes would be approximately $77,018 (median) and $95,208 (average). Census data indicates Ainslie's household, family, and personal incomes rank highly nationally, between the 89th and 93rd percentiles. Income analysis reveals that 32.9% of locals (1,764 people) earn more than $4,000 annually, differing from regional levels where the $1,500 - $2,999 category is predominant at 34.3%. A significant proportion of residents, 43.9%, earn over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings in the area. After accounting for housing costs, residents retain 86.8% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The suburb's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Ainslie is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Ainslie, as recorded in the latest Census, 72.9% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 27.1% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This differs from the Australian Capital Territory's (ACT) dwelling structure, which was 39.3% houses and 60.7% other dwellings. The home ownership rate in Ainslie stood at 33.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 32.0% and rented ones at 34.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,600, higher than the ACT average of $2,080. The median weekly rent figure in Ainslie was $367, compared to the ACT's $476. Nationally, Ainslie's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower than the national figure of $375.

Ainslie features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 63.3% of all households, including 29.6% couples with children, 23.4% couples without children, and 9.4% single-parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 36.7%, composed of 29.9% lone person households and 6.7% group households. The median household size is 2.5 people, larger than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.2.

Ainslie shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Ainslie is notable, with 59.1% of residents aged 15+ having university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 46.8% regionally. Bachelor degrees are the most common (29.8%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (21.9%) and graduate diplomas (7.4%). Vocational pathways account for 15.7%, with advanced diplomas at 7.0% and certificates at 8.7%. Educational participation is high, with 31.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 10.2% in tertiary, 9.4% in primary, and 6.8% in secondary.

North Ainslie Primary School serves the area, enrolling 532 students as of a recent count. The school's Index of Community Socio-Educational Advantage (ICSEA) is 1144, indicating significant socio-educational advantages and academic achievement. There is one primary school in Ainslie; secondary options are available nearby. School places per 100 residents stand at 9.9, below the regional average of 15.4. Some students may attend schools in adjacent areas due to this discrepancy.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis of public transport in Ainslie shows 35 active transport stops operating within the area, serving a mix of bus routes. These stops are serviced by 6 individual routes, collectively providing 380 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 179 meters from the nearest transport stop.

Service frequency averages 54 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Ainslie is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Ainslie faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 63% of the total population (3,395 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 11.1% and 8.3% of residents respectively. 64.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.8% across Australian Capital Territory. As of 2021, 21.5% of residents are aged 65 and over (1,153 people), which is higher than the 11.4% in Australian Capital Territory. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Ainslie was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ainslie, as per the census conducted on 28 June 2016, exhibited above-average cultural diversity with 22.7% of its population born overseas and 13.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Ainslie, accounting for 33.8% of its population. Notably, Judaism was overrepresented in Ainslie compared to the Australian Capital Territory, with 0.8% of the population identifying as Jewish versus the regional average of 0.5%.

The top three ancestry groups in Ainslie were English at 27.4%, Australian at 23.6%, and Irish at 11.2%. Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Hungarian was overrepresented at 0.5% compared to the regional average of 0.3%, Scottish at 9.5% versus 8.1%, and French at 0.8% versus 0.7%.

Ainslie hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Ainslie has a median age of 42, which is higher than the Australian Capital Territory figure of 35 years. This is also significantly higher than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory average, the cohort aged 65-74 is notably over-represented in Ainslie at 10.7%, while those aged 25-34 are under-represented at 11.8%. Between 2021 and present, the population aged 75 to 84 has grown from 5.8% to 7.0%, while the 65 to 74 cohort increased from 9.6% to 10.7%. Conversely, the population aged 85 and above has declined from 4.6% to 3.8%. Demographic modeling suggests that Ainslie's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to expand by 101 people (27%), increasing from 376 to 478. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above are expected to account for 83% of total population growth, reflecting Ainslie's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the cohorts aged 0 to 4 and 35 to 44 are expected to experience population declines.