Northern Peninsula

An assessment of population growth drivers in Northern Peninsula reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Northern Peninsula's population was approximately 2,928 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 147 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,781. The growth is inferred from ABS estimated resident population data of 2,928 in June 2024 and one additional validated address post-Census. This results in a density ratio of 2.8 persons per square kilometer. Northern Peninsula's growth rate of 5.3% since the 2021 Census exceeded both its SA4 region (4.5%) and SA3 area, indicating it as a growth leader. Natural growth contributed approximately 96.8% to overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections from 2023 based on 2021 data are adopted. These state projections lack age category splits; thus proportional growth weightings aligned with ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 using 2022 data are applied. Based on projected demographic shifts, a population increase just below Australia's regional median is expected for Northern Peninsula by 2041. The latest annual ERP population numbers project an increase of 144 persons, reflecting a total gain of 4.9% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Northern Peninsula according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Northern Peninsula has recorded approximately 13 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, a total of 67 homes were approved, with no approvals yet in FY-26. On average, about 0.4 new residents arrive per new home each year over these five years, indicating that supply is meeting or exceeding demand and providing greater buyer choice while supporting potential population growth above projections.

The average value of new dwellings developed is $882,000, suggesting developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. This financial year has seen $2.6 million in commercial development approvals recorded, reflecting the area's residential character. Relative to the Rest of Qld, Northern Peninsula shows moderately higher construction activity, at 49.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period, balancing buyer choice with support for current property values.

All new construction has been comprised of detached houses, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. Interestingly, developers are building more traditional houses than the current mix suggests (80.0% at Census), indicating continued strong demand for family homes despite density pressures. The location has approximately 124 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Future projections show Northern Peninsula adding 144 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Northern Peninsula has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

No infrastructure changes are anticipated in the area as AreaSearch has identified no projects that could impact it. Key initiatives include Queensland National Land Transport Network Maintenance, Queensland Energy and Jobs Plan SuperGrid, and the Queensland Energy and Jobs Plan.

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Employment drivers in Northern Peninsula are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Northern Peninsula has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs, prominent essential services sectors, an unemployment rate of 11.3% as of September 2025, and relative employment stability over the past year. Compared to Rest of Qld's unemployment rate of 4.1%, Northern Peninsula's is 7.2% higher, indicating room for improvement.

Workforce participation in Northern Peninsula lags at 53.7%, compared to Rest of Qld's 59.1%. Leading employment industries among residents are health care & social assistance, public administration & safety, and education & training. The area has a notable specialization in public administration & safety, with an employment share three times the regional level. Manufacturing has limited presence, with only 1.1% of employment compared to the regional average of 5.6%.

Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 0.2%, while labour force decreased by 0.5%, leading to a 0.6 percentage point drop in unemployment. In contrast, Rest of Qld experienced employment growth of 1.7% and labour force growth of 2.1%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows Queensland's employment contracted by 0.01%, losing 1,210 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.2%, closely aligned with the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia indicate a projected growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Northern Peninsula's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.5% over ten years, although this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The Northern Peninsula SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $44,442 and an average of $52,738 in the financial year 2022. This is lower than the national average, with Rest of Qld having a median income of $50,780 and an average income of $64,844. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $50,659 (median) and $60,116 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 13.99% since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Northern Peninsula fell between the 12th and 22nd percentiles nationally. Income analysis showed that 31.0% of residents (907 people) earned between $1,500 - 2,999, aligning with regional levels where this cohort represented 31.7%. Housing costs were manageable with 91.1% retained, but disposable income was below average at the 32nd percentile.

Northern Peninsula is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Northern Peninsula's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 79.9% houses and 20.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Non-Metro Qld had 82.5% houses and 17.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Northern Peninsula was at 2.1%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (0.5%) or rented (97.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, lower than Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,517. Median weekly rent in Northern Peninsula was $120, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $140 and the national average of $375. Nationally, mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863.

Northern Peninsula features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 78.5 percent of all households, including 35.5 percent couples with children, 12.8 percent couples without children, and 27.7 percent single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 21.5 percent, with lone person households at 20.6 percent and group households comprising 1.0 percent of the total. The median household size is 3.5 people, which is larger than the Rest of Qld average of 2.9.

Northern Peninsula faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 10.4%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 7.0%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.9%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 53.6% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 9.3% and certificates at 44.3%.

Educational participation is high, with 41.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 22.5% in primary education, 12.7% in secondary education, and 1.0% pursuing tertiary education.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Northern Peninsula's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows remarkable results across Northern Peninsula with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. The rate of private health cover is found to be very low at approximately 47% of the total population (~1,367 people), compared to 49.9% across Rest of Qld and a national average of 55.3%. Diabetes and asthma were the most common medical conditions in the area, impacting 6.3 and 3.7% of residents respectively, while 85.1% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 79.2% across Rest of Qld.

The area has 5.7% of residents aged 65 and over (167 people), lower than the 11.5% in Rest of Qld. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention despite the broader population's strong results.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Northern Peninsula was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Northern Peninsula's cultural diversity was found to be above average, with 2.7% of its population born overseas and 82.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the main religion in Northern Peninsula, comprising 75.9% of people, compared to 64.7% across Rest of Qld. In terms of ancestry, the top three represented groups were Other (53.0%, substantially higher than the regional average of 28.1%), Australian Aboriginal (35.8%, substantially higher than the regional average of 25.3%), and English (3.6%, notably lower than the regional average of 14.2%).

Notably, Maori was overrepresented in Northern Peninsula at 0.5% compared to 0.4% regionally.

Northern Peninsula hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Northern Peninsula's median age is 23 years, which is notably lower than the Rest of Qld average of 41 years and substantially lower than Australia's median age of 38 years. Relative to Rest of Qld, Northern Peninsula has a higher concentration of residents aged 5-14 (22.1%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (4.2%). This concentration of 5-14 year-olds is well above the national average of 12.2%. Following the Census in 2021, the population of residents aged 65 to 74 grew from 3.7% to 4.2%, while the 0 to 4 cohort declined from 11.4% to 10.0% and the 5 to 14 group dropped from 23.5% to 22.1%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Northern Peninsula, with the 25 to 34 age group expected to grow by 24%, reaching 554 people from 447. Conversely, the 55 to 64 and 15 to 24 age groups are expected to experience population declines.