Northern Peninsula
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Northern Peninsula reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Northern Peninsula's population is approximately 2,928 as of August 2025. This represents a growth of 147 people, an increase of 5.3% since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 2,781. This change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 2,928 in June 2024 and one validated new address since the Census date. The population density is 2.8 persons per square kilometer. Northern Peninsula's growth rate exceeded both the SA4 region (3.7%) and the SA3 area, making it a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 96.8% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, released in 2023 based on 2021 data. However, these state projections lack age category splits, so AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings from ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 using 2022 data for each age cohort. Based on projected demographic shifts, a population increase just below Australia's regional median is expected by 2041, with the area gaining 144 persons and recording a total growth of 4.9% over 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Northern Peninsula according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Northern Peninsula recorded approximately 8 residential properties granted approval annually. Development approval data from the ABS is on a financial year basis: 40 homes over the past five financial years, from FY20 to FY25, with 0 approvals so far in FY26. On average, 0.4 new residents arrived per new home each year between FY20 and FY25. New construction has matched or outpaced demand, offering buyers more options while supporting population growth that could exceed current expectations.

The average value of new homes being built is $971,000, indicating a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. This financial year has seen $2.6 million in commercial approvals, suggesting limited commercial development focus. Compared to the rest of Queensland, Northern Peninsula shows moderately higher construction activity, balancing buyer choice with support for current property values.

All new construction over the past five years has been comprised of detached houses, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. Developers are building more traditional houses than the current mix suggests, indicating strong demand for family homes. The location has approximately 124 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Future projections show Northern Peninsula adding 144 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Northern Peninsula has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 20thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified a total of zero projects likely to affect this specific region. Notable projects include Queensland National Land Transport Network Maintenance, National Electricity Market: Renewable Energy Zone Expansions, Network Optimisation Program - Rail, and Enabling Digital Health Services for Regional and Remote Australia. The following list details those most relevant to the area.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment conditions in Northern Peninsula face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Northern Peninsula has a mixed workforce comprising white and blue-collar jobs with prominent essential services sectors. The unemployment rate in June 2025 was 12.1%.

At that time, 1,052 residents were employed, while the unemployment rate was 8.2% higher than Rest of Qld's rate of 3.9%, indicating room for improvement. Workforce participation lagged at 53.7%, compared to Rest of Qld's 59.1%. Key employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, public administration & safety, and education & training. The area has a notable specialization in public administration & safety, with an employment share three times the regional level.

Manufacturing has limited presence, with only 1.1% of employment compared to the regional average of 5.6%. Over the year to June 2025, labour force levels increased by 0.4%, but employment declined by 2.6%, resulting in a rise in unemployment rate by 2.7 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Qld saw employment growth of 1.8% and labour force growth of 2.0%, with a slight increase in unemployment of 0.2 percentage points. State-level data to Sep-25 shows Queensland's employment contracted by 0.23%, losing 8,070 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. National comparisons show QLD lagging behind national employment growth of 0.26% and having a slightly lower unemployment rate of 4.5%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Northern Peninsula's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.9% over five years and 14.5% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Northern Peninsula had median taxpayer income of $44,442 and average income of $52,738 in financial year 2022. This was lower than national averages, with Rest of Qld showing median income of $50,780 and average income of $64,844. By March 2025, estimates suggest median income would be approximately $49,646 and average income $58,914, based on Wage Price Index growth of 11.71% since financial year 2022. According to 2021 Census figures, incomes in Northern Peninsula fall between the 12th and 22nd percentiles nationally. Income analysis shows that 31.0% of residents (907 people) earn within the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, similar to regional levels at 31.7%. Housing costs are manageable with 91.1% retained, but disposable income is below average at the 32nd percentile.

Northern Peninsula is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Northern Peninsula had 79.9% houses and 20.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings) as per the latest Census, compared to Non-Metro Qld's 82.5% houses and 17.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Northern Peninsula was at 2.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 0.5% and rented ones at 97.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, below Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,517, and the median weekly rent figure was $120 compared to Non-Metro Qld's $140. Nationally, Northern Peninsula's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Northern Peninsula features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 78.5 percent of all households, including 35.5 percent couples with children, 12.8 percent couples without children, and 27.7 percent single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 21.5 percent, with lone person households at 20.6 percent and group households making up 1.0 percent of the total. The median household size is 3.5 people, larger than the Rest of Qld average of 2.9 people.

Northern Peninsula faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates of 10.4% significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 7.0%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.9%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.5%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 53.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 9.3% and certificates at 44.3%.

Educational participation is high, with 41.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 22.5% in primary education, 12.7% in secondary education, and 1.0% pursuing tertiary education. Northern Peninsula's four schools have a combined enrollment of 624 students. The educational mix includes two primary, one secondary, and one K-12 school. School capacity exceeds typical residential needs (21.3 places per 100 residents vs 15.4 regionally), indicating the area serves as an educational center for the broader region.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Northern Peninsula's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows excellent results across Northern Peninsula with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. Private health cover rate is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (1,367 people), compared to 49.9% across Rest of Qld and a national average of 55.3%. Diabetes and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, impacting 6.3 and 3.7% of residents respectively, while 85.1% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 79.2% across Rest of Qld.

The area has 5.7% of residents aged 65 and over (167 people), lower than the 11.5% in Rest of Qld. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention despite being strong.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Northern Peninsula was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Northern Peninsula's cultural diversity was above average with 2.7% of its population born overseas and 82.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the main religion, making up 75.9%, compared to 64.7% across Rest of Qld. In terms of ancestry, the top groups were Other (53.0%), Australian Aboriginal (35.8%), and English (3.6%).

Notably, Other and Australian Aboriginal groups were substantially higher than regional averages of 28.1% and 25.3%, respectively, while English was notably lower at 14.2%. Maori representation was also notably overrepresented at 0.5%.

Northern Peninsula hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Northern Peninsula's median age is 23 years, which is notably below Queensland's average of 41 years and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to the rest of Queensland, Northern Peninsula has a higher concentration of residents aged 5-14 (22.1%), but fewer residents aged 65-74 (4.2%). This concentration of 5-14 year-olds is well above the national average of 12.2%. According to the 2021 Census, the population of those aged 65 to 74 has grown from 3.7% to 4.2%, while the population of those aged 0 to 4 has declined from 11.4% to 10.0%, and the population of those aged 5 to 14 has decreased from 23.5% to 22.1%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Northern Peninsula. Notably, the population of residents aged 25 to 34 is expected to grow by 24%, reaching 554 people from 447. Conversely, the populations of those aged 55 to 64 and 15 to 24 are projected to decline.