Emerald
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Emerald reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Emerald's population, as per AreaSearch's analysis, was around 15,227 by November 2025. This figure showed an increase of 1,138 people, representing an 8.1% rise from the 2021 Census count of 14,089 individuals. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 15,182 in June 2024 and an additional 187 validated new addresses since the Census date. This resulted in a density ratio of 390 persons per square kilometer. Emerald's growth rate exceeded that of its SA3 area (6.2%) and SA4 region, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 60.5% to overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including overseas migration and interstate migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023 based on 2021 data are adopted, with proportional growth weightings applied for age cohorts. Future demographic trends suggest a population increase just below the median of Australia's non-metropolitan areas, with an expected growth of 1,492 persons to reach 2041, resulting in a total gain of 9.5% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Emerald according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Emerald has received approximately 18 dwelling approvals per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 90 homes were approved, with an additional 22 approved in FY26 so far. On average, each dwelling constructed over these five years brought in about 10.7 new residents annually.

This supply has lagged behind demand, leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. New homes are being built at an average construction cost of $293,000, which is under regional levels, indicating more affordable housing options for buyers. In terms of commercial development, around $10.9 million in approvals have been registered this financial year, suggesting balanced activity in the sector. Compared to the Rest of Qld, Emerald maintains similar construction rates per person, supporting market stability aligned with regional patterns, although recent activity has eased slightly.

Nationally, however, construction levels are higher, reflecting a more mature market and potential development constraints. Recent construction primarily comprises detached dwellings (91.0%) and townhouses or apartments (9.0%), maintaining the area's traditional low-density character focused on family homes. As of now, there are an estimated 2370 people per dwelling approval in the area, reflecting its quiet, low-activity development environment. Population forecasts indicate Emerald will gain approximately 1447 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Emerald has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 36thth percentile nationally

Local infrastructure changes significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified seven projects that could affect the region, including notable ones like the Emerald Regional Botanic Gardens Upgrade, Codenwarra Road Mixed-Use Development Site, Nogoa Rise Estate Residential Development, and 91 Gray Street Apartment Development. The following list details those most relevant.

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Employment performance in Emerald ranks among the strongest 15% of areas evaluated nationally

Emerald's workforce is skilled with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. Its unemployment rate was 2.8% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 4.7%.

As of June 2025, 9,721 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.1% below Rest of Qld's rate of 3.9%, and workforce participation at 73.7% compared to Rest of Qld's 59.1%. Dominant employment sectors include mining, retail trade, and education & training. Mining has a particularly notable concentration with employment levels at 5.4 times the regional average. Health care & social assistance has limited presence with 8.1% employment compared to 16.1% regionally.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census working population to local population count. In the 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 4.7% and labour force by 5.0%, causing unemployment rate to rise by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with local growth estimates for Emerald being approximately 5.2% over five years and 11.5% over ten years based on industry-specific projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch released its latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022. Emerald's median income among taxpayers was $62,836 with an average of $78,859. Nationally, these figures are extremely high. In comparison, Rest of Qld had a median income of $50,780 and an average of $64,844. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 13.99% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Emerald would be approximately $71,627 (median) and $89,891 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Emerald rank highly nationally, between the 77th and 81st percentiles. The earnings profile shows that 37.4% of residents (5,694 people) fall into the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket, mirroring the surrounding region where 31.7% occupy this bracket. Economic strength is evident with 31.0% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. After housing costs, residents retain 87.3% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Emerald is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

The dwelling structure in Emerald, as per the latest Census, consisted of 80.4% houses and 19.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Non-Metro Qld had 86.6% houses and 13.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Emerald was at 15.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 37.9% and rented ones at 46.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,600, higher than Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,500. The median weekly rent figure in Emerald was recorded as $300, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $250. Nationally, Emerald's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Emerald has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 73.1% of all households, including 36.7% couples with children, 25.3% couples without children, and 10.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 26.9%, with lone person households at 23.4% and group households comprising 3.4%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Rest of Qld average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Emerald fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

Emerald's university qualification rate is 17.3%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 12.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 8.6% and certificates at 35.2%. Educational participation is high, with 35.4% currently enrolled in formal education: primary (14.8%), secondary (10.7%), tertiary (2.9%).

Emerald has a robust school network of 10 institutions educating approximately 8,028 students, with typical Australian conditions and balanced opportunities. The mix includes 5 primary, 3 secondary, 2 K-12 schools. It serves as an education hub with 52.8 school places per 100 residents, above the regional average of 33.0, attracting students from surrounding communities.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Emerald's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Emerald's health outcomes show notable results, with younger age groups having a very low prevalence of common health conditions.

Approximately 59% of Emerald's total population (9,044 people) have private health cover, which is notably high. The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 8.0% and 7.6% of residents respectively. A majority, 75.7%, report being completely free of medical ailments, compared to 74.5% across the Rest of Queensland. Emerald has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 8.8% (1,339 people), compared to 10.7% in the Rest of Queensland. However, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than those of the broader population.

Emerald ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Emerald's population was found to have low cultural diversity, with 82.6% being citizens, 83.9% born in Australia, and 91.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Emerald, comprising 54.8%, compared to 56.8% across the rest of Queensland. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (29.2%), English (28.1%), and Irish (8.3%).

Notably, Maori (1.7%) was overrepresented compared to the regional average of 1.4%, as were New Zealanders (1.2% vs 0.9%) and South Africans (0.8% vs 0.5%).

Emerald hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Emerald's median age is 32 years, which is lower than the Rest of Qld average of 41 and substantially under the Australian median of 38. Compared to Rest of Qld, Emerald has a higher concentration of residents aged 25-34 (16.8%) but fewer residents aged 75-84 (2.1%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the 65-74 age group has grown from 4.6% to 6.1% of the population. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort has declined from 17.6% to 15.6%. Demographic modeling suggests Emerald's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 25-34 cohort is projected to grow strongly at 25%, adding 646 residents to reach 3,205. In contrast, both the 55-64 and 15-24 age groups are projected to see reduced numbers.