Churchill - Yamanto
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Churchill - Yamanto reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Churchill - Yamanto's population is around 7,206 as of August 2025. This reflects an increase from 6,817 people in the 2021 Census, marking a growth of 389 people (5.7%). The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 7,150 in June 2024 and an additional 32 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 769 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's 5.7% growth since the census is within 2.9 percentage points of the national average (8.6%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Natural growth contributed approximately 69.5% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections are used, released in 2023 based on 2021 data. These state projections do not provide age category splits, so AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings from ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) for each age cohort. Projected demographic shifts indicate a decline in overall population by 329 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts are expected to grow, led by the 75 to 84 age group with an increase of 156 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Churchill - Yamanto according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Churchill - Yamanto has seen approximately 10 new homes approved annually. Development approval data is produced by the ABS on a financial year basis, showing 52 homes over the past five financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, with 0 recorded so far in FY-26. On average, around 3.9 new residents arrive per dwelling constructed each year during these five financial years. This demand significantly exceeds new supply, typically leading to price growth and increased buyer competition.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $370,000, which is below regional levels, indicating more affordable housing choices for buyers. In FY-26, $72.1 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Churchill - Yamanto has substantially reduced construction activity, with 88.0% less than the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes, although building activity has accelerated in recent years. This is also below the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations.

New building activity consists of 88.0% detached houses and 12.0% attached dwellings, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated population count per dwelling approval is 767 people, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. Population projections show stability or decline, suggesting reduced housing demand pressures in Churchill - Yamanto, which benefits potential buyers.

Churchill - Yamanto has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure can significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified five projects that could affect this region. Notable projects include the Ipswich AOD Residential Rehabilitation Facility (West Moreton Recovery), Cunningham Highway Upgrade - Amberley Interchange, Ipswich Hospital Expansion Stage 2, and Dahlia at Flinders View. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment conditions in Churchill - Yamanto remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Churchill Yamanto has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, with essential services well represented. The unemployment rate was 4.4% in June 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 0.7% over the past year.

As of June 2025, 3715 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%, slightly higher than Greater Brisbane's 4.1%. Workforce participation was similar to Greater Brisbane at 64.5%. Key industries included health care & social assistance, public administration & safety, and retail trade. Public administration & safety had particularly high employment levels, at twice the regional average.

However, professional & technical jobs were under-represented, with only 3.6% of Churchill Yamanto's workforce compared to Greater Brisbane's 8.9%. Employment opportunities locally appeared limited based on Census data analysis. Over the year to June 2025, employment increased by 0.7% while labour force grew by 0.3%, reducing unemployment by 0.4 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Brisbane saw employment grow by 4.4%, labour force expand by 4.0%, and unemployment fall by 0.4 percentage points. Statewide in Queensland, employment contracted by 0.23% (losing 8070 jobs) as of Sep-25, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.5%, with employment growth at 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 projected overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Churchill Yamanto's employment mix suggested local growth of approximately 6.0% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that income in Churchill - Yamanto is lower than average nationally. The median assessed income was $51,972 and the average income stood at $57,989. This contrasts with Greater Brisbane's figures of a median income of $55,645 and an average income of $70,520. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 11.71% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $58,058 (median) and $64,780 (average) as of March 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, household, family, and personal incomes in Churchill - Yamanto all rank modestly, between the 46th and 46th percentiles. Distribution data shows that the predominant cohort spans 37.7% of locals (2,716 people) with incomes ranging from $1,500 to $2,999, which is similar to the regional figure where 33.3% fall into this bracket. After housing expenses, 86.4% of income remains for other expenses.

Churchill - Yamanto is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Churchill - Yamanto's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, had 93.1% houses and 6.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Brisbane metropolitan area had 88.4% houses and 11.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Churchill - Yamanto was at 28.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 38.1% and rented ones at 33.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,452, below Brisbane metro's $1,517. Median weekly rent was $300, equal to Brisbane metro's figure. Nationally, Churchill - Yamanto had lower mortgage repayments ($1,452 vs Australia's $1,863) and lower rents ($300 vs Australia's $375).

Churchill - Yamanto features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 78.5% of all households, including 34.2% couples with children, 26.1% couples without children, and 17.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 21.5%, with lone person households at 19.2% and group households comprising 2.4%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is larger than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.6.

Churchill - Yamanto faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.3%, significantly lower than the Greater Brisbane average of 30.5%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 9.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 44.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (34.4%). Educational participation is high at 30.3%, comprising primary education (11.3%), secondary education (9.9%), and tertiary education (3.6%).

Amberley District State School and Churchill State School serve a total of 947 students, focusing on primary education only with secondary options available nearby. School places per 100 residents are lower at 13.1 compared to the regional average of 18.0, indicating some students may attend schools in neighboring areas.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis indicates that there are currently 29 operational public transport stops in the Churchill - Yamanto area. These stops serve a variety of bus routes, with a total of 798 weekly passenger trips provided by these services combined. The accessibility of transport is considered good, with residents typically residing approximately 239 meters away from their nearest transport stop.

On average, there are 114 daily trips across all routes, which translates to roughly 27 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Churchill - Yamanto is well below average with considerably higher than average prevalence of common health conditions and to an even higher degree among older age cohorts

Churchill - Yamanto faces significant health challenges with a higher prevalence of common health conditions compared to average, particularly amongst older age groups. Approximately 49% (~3,523 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most prevalent conditions, affecting 11.0% and 10.3% of residents respectively. About 63.6% of residents report no medical ailments, slightly higher than the Greater Brisbane average of 62.2%. The area has a notably high senior population at 15.8% (1,137 people). Health outcomes among seniors require more attention due to these challenges.

Churchill - Yamanto is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Churchill-Yamanto was found to have below average cultural diversity, with 89.3% of its population born in Australia, 92.0% being citizens, and 94.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Churchill-Yamanto, comprising 51.1% of people, compared to 49.5% across Greater Brisbane. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (31.1%), English (29.2%), and Scottish (7.8%).

Notable differences exist in the representation of certain ethnic groups: German is overrepresented at 7.4%, Samoan is underrepresented at 0.5%, and Australian Aboriginal is slightly higher at 4.5%.

Churchill - Yamanto's population is younger than the national pattern

Churchill-Yamanto's median age is 35 years, nearly matching Greater Brisbane's average of 36, but slightly younger than Australia's median age of 38. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Churchill-Yamanto has a higher percentage of residents aged 65-74 (9.5%) and fewer residents aged 25-34 (13.9%). Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, the population aged 75-84 grew from 3.6% to 5.2%, while the proportion of those aged 5-14 declined from 15.4% to 13.1% and the 55-64 age group decreased from 11.5% to 10.2%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Churchill-Yamanto. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to grow by 39%, adding 145 residents to reach a total of 519. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 70% of the population growth, highlighting the trend towards an aging demographic. Conversely, population declines are projected for those aged 0-4 and 15-24.