Churchill - Yamanto

An assessment of population growth drivers in Churchill - Yamanto reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Churchill - Yamanto's population was around 7,206 as of November 2025, reflecting an increase from the 6,817 people reported in the 2021 Census. This increase of 389 people (5.7%) is inferred from ABS estimated resident population data of 7,150 as of June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio was 769 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Natural growth contributed approximately 69.5% of overall population gains during recent periods. For projections, AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia figures released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area.

For areas not covered and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections from 2023 based on 2021 data are used, with proportional growth weightings applied in line with ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 using 2022 data. By 2041, the population is projected to decline by 329 persons according to this methodology, despite anticipated growth in specific age cohorts such as the 75 to 84 age group which is expected to increase by 156 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Churchill - Yamanto according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Churchill - Yamanto has seen approximately 10 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 52 homes were approved, with one more approved so far in FY-26. On average, for every home built between FY-21 and FY-25, about 3.9 new residents were added annually.

This supply has significantly lagged demand, leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. The average construction cost of new dwellings is around $273,000, aligning with regional trends. In the current financial year, there have been $72.1 million in commercial development approvals, indicating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Churchill - Yamanto has significantly less development activity, at 88.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties.

However, construction activity has intensified recently, though it remains below national averages due to the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. The majority of new building activity consists of detached houses (88.0%) with a smaller proportion of attached dwellings (12.0%), preserving the area's low density nature. There are an estimated 767 people in the area per dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet development environment. Given stable or declining population forecasts, Churchill - Yamanto may experience less housing pressure in the future, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Churchill - Yamanto has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified five projects expected to affect the area: Cunningham Highway Upgrade - Amberley Interchange, Ipswich Hospital Expansion Stage 2, Ripley Valley Master Planned Community, and Dahlia at Flinders View. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Churchill - Yamanto demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Churchill Yamanto has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue collar jobs, with essential services well represented. The unemployment rate was 4.2% in September 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.4%. There were 3,730 residents employed as of September 2025, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, slightly higher than Greater Brisbane's rate of 4.0%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Brisbane's 64.5%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, public administration & safety, and retail trade.

Public administration & safety has notable concentration, at 2.0 times the regional average. However, professional & technical services are under-represented, with only 3.6% of Churchill Yamanto's workforce compared to Greater Brisbane's 8.9%. Local employment opportunities appear limited based on Census data. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 4.4%, while labour force grew by 3.1%, reducing unemployment by 1.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Brisbane saw employment growth of 3.8% and a 0.5 percentage point decrease in unemployment. Statewide, Queensland's employment contracted by 0.01% (losing 1,210 jobs) as of 25-Nov, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, closely aligned with the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Churchill Yamanto's industry mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

Churchill - Yamanto SA2 had a median income of $51,972 and an average income of $57,989 in financial year 2022. This is lower than the national average. Greater Brisbane's median income was $55,645 with an average of $70,520 during the same period. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median income will be approximately $59,243 and the average income around $66,102, based on a 13.99% increase since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Churchill - Yamanto rank modestly, between the 46th and 46th percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. Income distribution shows that 37.7% of locals (2,716 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 category, similar to the regional average of 33.3%. After housing expenses, 86.4% of income remains for other expenses.

Churchill - Yamanto is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Churchill - Yamanto's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, had 93.1% houses and 6.9% other dwellings. Brisbane metro had 88.4% houses and 11.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Churchill - Yamanto was at 28.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 38.1% and rented ones at 33.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,452, below Brisbane metro's average of $1,517. Median weekly rent in the area was $300, matching Brisbane metro's figure. Nationally, Churchill - Yamanto's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Churchill - Yamanto features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 78.5% of all households, consisting of 34.2% couples with children, 26.1% couples without children, and 17.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 21.5%, with lone person households at 19.2% and group households comprising 2.4%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.6.

Churchill - Yamanto faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.3%, significantly lower than Greater Brisbane's average of 30.5%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 44.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (34.4%). Educational participation is high, with 30.3% currently enrolled in formal education, comprising primary (11.3%), secondary (9.9%), and tertiary (3.6%) levels.

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.3% in primary education, 9.9% in secondary education, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 29 active transport stops operating within Churchill - Yamanto, with a mix of buses serving these locations. These stops are serviced by three individual routes, collectively providing 798 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 239 meters from the nearest transport stop.

Service frequency averages 114 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 27 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Churchill - Yamanto is well below average with considerably higher than average prevalence of common health conditions and to an even higher degree among older age cohorts

Churchill - Yamanto faces significant health challenges with a higher prevalence of common conditions compared to averages. Mental health issues affect approximately 11.0% of residents, while asthma impacts around 10.3%.

About 49% of the population has private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%. Around 63.6% of residents report no medical ailments, slightly higher than the Greater Brisbane average of 62.2%. The area has a significant senior population, with 15.8% aged 65 and over (1,137 people). Health outcomes among seniors require more attention due to these challenges.

Churchill - Yamanto is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Churchill-Yamanto was found to have a below average cultural diversity, with 89.3% of its population born in Australia, 92.0% being citizens, and 94.7% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion in Churchill-Yamanto is Christianity, which accounts for 51.1% of the population, compared to 49.5% across Greater Brisbane. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Australian (31.1%), English (29.2%), and Scottish (7.8%).

There are notable differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: German is overrepresented at 7.4% compared to the regional average of 6.4%, Samoan is underrepresented at 0.5% versus 0.9%, and Australian Aboriginal is slightly higher at 4.5% compared to 4.1%.

Churchill - Yamanto's population is younger than the national pattern

Churchill-Yamanto's median age is 35 years, nearly matching Greater Brisbane's average of 36 but slightly younger than Australia's 38 years. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Churchill-Yamanto has a higher percentage of residents aged 65-74 (9.5%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (13.9%). From the 2021 Census, the population aged 75 to 84 grew from 3.6% to 5.2%, while the percentage of those aged 5 to 14 declined from 15.4% to 13.1%. The percentage of residents aged 55 to 64 also decreased, from 11.5% to 10.2%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Churchill-Yamanto, with the strongest projected growth in the 75 to 84 age group (39%), adding 145 residents to reach 519. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive 70% of population growth, reflecting broader demographic aging trends. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 age cohorts.