Churchill - Yamanto

An assessment of population growth drivers in Churchill - Yamanto reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Churchill - Yamanto's population is around 7,236 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 419 people (6.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,817 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 7,150 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 42 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 772 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth, which contributed approximately 69.5% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data, are adopted. It should be noted that these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence, where utilised, AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) for each age cohort. Considering the projected demographic shifts, projections indicate a decline in overall population, with the area's population expected to shrink by 329 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 75 to 84 age group, which is projected to increase by 156 people. See the age section for more details.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Churchill - Yamanto according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Churchill - Yamanto has seen around 10 new homes approved per year, totalling 52 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 2 approvals have been recorded. At an average of 3.9 new residents per year for every home built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), demand is significantly outpacing supply, which typically puts upward pressure on prices and increases competition among buyers, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $273,000, consistent with regional patterns. Additionally, $72.1 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, indicating strong commercial development momentum.

Relative to Greater Brisbane, Churchill - Yamanto shows substantially reduced construction (88.0% below regional average per person). This constrained new construction usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties, though development activity has picked up in recent periods. This level is likewise lower than nationally, reflecting market maturity and pointing to possible development constraints. Recent construction comprises 88.0% standalone homes and 12.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated count of 767 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

Given stable or declining population forecasts, Churchill - Yamanto may experience less housing pressure, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Churchill - Yamanto has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 5 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Cunningham Highway Upgrade - Amberley Interchange, Ipswich Hospital Expansion Stage 2, Ripley Valley Master Planned Community, and Dahlia at Flinders View, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Churchill - Yamanto exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Churchill - Yamanto features a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of only 4.0%, and 8.6% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 3,840 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 0.2% below Greater Brisbane's rate of 4.1%, and workforce participation is somewhat below standard (69.1% compared to Greater Brisbane's 71.2%). Based on Census responses, a low 8.8% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, public administration & safety, and retail trade. The area shows particularly strong specialization in public administration & safety, with an employment share of 2.0 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 3.6% versus the regional average of 8.9%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 8.6% while the labour force increased by 7.2%, resulting in unemployment falling by 1.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Brisbane experienced employment growth of 3.2% and labour force growth of 3.0%, with a 0.1 percentage point drop. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Churchill - Yamanto. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Churchill - Yamanto's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.9% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Churchill - Yamanto SA2's median income among taxpayers is $54,661, with an average of $60,769. This is lower than average on a national basis, and compares to Greater Brisbane's median of $58,236 and average of $72,799. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $60,078 (median) and $66,791 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Churchill - Yamanto, between the 46th and 46th percentiles. Distribution data shows the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 37.7% of residents (2,727 people), reflecting patterns seen at regional levels where 33.3% similarly occupy this range. After housing, 86.4% of income remains for other expenses.

Churchill - Yamanto is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Churchill - Yamanto, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 93.1% houses and 6.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Brisbane metro's 73.5% houses and 26.5% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Churchill - Yamanto was higher than that of Brisbane metro, at 28.2%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (38.1%) or rented (33.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Brisbane metro average at $1,452, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $300, compared to Brisbane metro's $1,863 and $380. Nationally, Churchill - Yamanto's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Churchill - Yamanto features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 78.5% of all households, comprising 34.2% couples with children, 26.1% couples without children, and 17.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 21.5%, with lone person households at 19.2% and group households comprising 2.4% of the total. The median household size of 2.7 people is larger than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.6.

Churchill - Yamanto faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (12.3%) substantially below the Greater Brisbane average of 30.5%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 9.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 44.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (34.4%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.3% in primary education, 9.9% in secondary education, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 29 active transport stops operating within Churchill - Yamanto, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 3 individual routes, collectively providing 525 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 239 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 92%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A relatively low 8.8% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 75 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Churchill - Yamanto is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Churchill - Yamanto faces significant health challenges, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 49% of the total population (~3,560 people). This compares to 55.8% across Greater Brisbane and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 11.0% and 10.3% of residents, respectively, while 63.6% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 69.2% across Greater Brisbane. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 16.4% of residents aged 65 and over (1,189 people), which is higher than the 15.2% in Greater Brisbane. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, though ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

Churchill - Yamanto is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Churchill - Yamanto was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 89.3% of its population born in Australia, 92.0% being citizens, and 94.7% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Churchill - Yamanto is Christianity, which makes up 51.1% of the people. This compares to 47.8% across Greater Brisbane.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Churchill - Yamanto are Australian, comprising 31.1% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 23.2%, English, comprising 29.2% of the population, and Scottish, comprising 7.8% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: German is notably overrepresented at 7.4% of Churchill - Yamanto (vs 4.2% regionally), Samoan at 0.5% (vs 0.9%) and Australian Aboriginal at 4.5% (vs 2.1%).

Churchill - Yamanto's population is younger than the national pattern

At 35 years, Churchill - Yamanto's median age is nearly matching the Greater Brisbane average of 36 and is similarly somewhat younger than Australia's 38 years. Relative to Greater Brisbane, Churchill - Yamanto has a higher concentration of 65 - 74 residents (9.6%) but fewer 25 - 34 year-olds (13.4%). Since the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 3.6% to 5.6% of the population, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 13.3% to 14.5%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 15.4% to 12.8% and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 11.5% to 10.2%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Churchill - Yamanto. The 85+ cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 151%, adding 133 residents to reach 223. Senior residents (65+) will drive 70% of population growth, underscoring demographic aging trends. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 65 to 74 and 15 to 24 cohorts.