Churchill - Yamanto
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Churchill - Yamanto reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Churchill - Yamanto's population was 6,817 as of the 2021 Census. By Nov 2025, it is projected to be around 7,206, reflecting an increase of 389 people (5.7%). This growth is inferred from ABS estimates: 7,150 in June 2024 and an additional 32 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is 769 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages across areas assessed by AreaSearch. Natural growth contributed approximately 69.5% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections from 2023 (based on 2021 data) are used. However, these state projections lack age category splits; thus, AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings aligned with ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 and based on 2022 data for each age cohort. By 2041, the area's population is projected to decline by 329 persons. However, specific age cohorts are expected to grow, notably the 75 to 84 age group, which is projected to increase by 156 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Churchill - Yamanto according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Churchill-Yamanto has seen approximately 10 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 52 homes were approved, with none yet approved in FY26. On average, for every home built over these five years, about 3.9 new residents were added annually.

This supply is significantly lagging demand, leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. The average construction cost value of new dwellings was around $273,000, in line with regional trends. In FY26 alone, commercial development approvals totaled $72.1 million, indicating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Churchill-Yamanto has significantly less development activity, at 88.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties.

However, construction activity has intensified recently. Nationally, this activity is also below average, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. The types of dwellings being built in Churchill-Yamanto are 88.0% detached houses and 12.0% attached dwellings, preserving its low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated population per dwelling approval is around 767 people, indicating a quiet, low activity development environment. Given stable or declining population forecasts, Churchill-Yamanto may experience less housing pressure in the future, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Churchill - Yamanto has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified five projects likely to affect the region. Notable projects include Ipswich AOD Residential Rehabilitation Facility (West Moreton Recovery), Cunningham Highway Upgrade - Amberley Interchange, Ripley Valley Master Planned Community, and Dahlia at Flinders View. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Churchill - Yamanto remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Churchill-Yamanto has a diverse workforce comprising both white and blue-collar jobs, with essential services well-represented. As of June 2025, the unemployment rate is 4.4%, showing a 0.7% growth over the previous year.

The area has 3,715 residents in work, with an unemployment rate of 4.7% compared to Greater Brisbane's 4.1%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Brisbane at 64.5%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, public administration & safety, and retail trade. Public administration & safety has a notable concentration, being 2.0 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 3.6% compared to Greater Brisbane's 8.9%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 0.7%, labour force grew by 0.3%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Brisbane saw employment grow by 4.4% and unemployment fall by 0.4%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years nationally. Applying these projections to Churchill-Yamanto's industry mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.0%% over five years and 12.9% over ten years.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that income in Churchill - Yamanto is lower than average nationally. The median income is $51,972 and the average income stands at $57,989. This contrasts with Greater Brisbane's figures of a median income of $55,645 and an average income of $70,520. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 13.99% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $59,243 (median) and $66,102 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Churchill - Yamanto rank modestly, between the 46th and 46th percentiles. Income distribution data shows that 37.7% of locals (2,716 people) fall into the $1,500 - $2,999 category, similar to the region where 33.3% occupy this bracket. After housing expenses, 86.4% of income remains for other expenses.

Churchill - Yamanto is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Churchill-Yamanto's dwellings, according to the latest Census, were 93.1% houses and 6.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Brisbane metro's 88.4% houses and 11.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Churchill-Yamanto stood at 28.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 38.1% and rented ones at 33.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,452, lower than Brisbane metro's $1,517. Median weekly rent in Churchill-Yamanto was $300, matching Brisbane metro's figure but significantly below the national average of $375. Nationally, Churchill-Yamanto's mortgage repayments were notably lower at $1,452 compared to Australia's average of $1,863.

Churchill - Yamanto features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 78.5% of all households, including 34.2% couples with children, 26.1% couples without children, and 17.0% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 21.5%, with lone person households at 19.2% and group households making up 2.4%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.6.

Churchill - Yamanto faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.3%, significantly lower than Greater Brisbane's average of 30.5%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 44.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (34.4%). Educational participation is high at 30.3%, including 11.3% in primary education, 9.9% in secondary education, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Amberley District State School and Churchill State School serve a total of 947 students, focusing exclusively on primary education. Secondary options are available in surrounding areas. The area has 13.1 school places per 100 residents, below the regional average of 18.0. Some students may attend schools in adjacent areas due to limited local secondary options.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Churchill-Yamanto has 29 active bus stops serving its residents. These stops are operated by three different routes that collectively facilitate 798 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from a resident's location to the nearest transport stop is 239 meters.

On average, there are 114 bus trips daily across all routes, which translates to approximately 27 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Churchill - Yamanto is well below average with considerably higher than average prevalence of common health conditions and to an even higher degree among older age cohorts

Churchill - Yamanto faces significant health challenges with a higher prevalence of common conditions compared to average. Among older age cohorts, this prevalence is even higher.

Private health cover stands at approximately 49% of the total population (~3,523 people), lower than the national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 11.0% and 10.3% of residents respectively. A higher proportion, 63.6%, report being completely clear of medical ailments compared to Greater Brisbane's 62.2%. The area has a larger senior population at 15.8% (1,137 people), with health outcomes among seniors requiring more attention than the broader population.

Churchill - Yamanto is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Churchill-Yamanto was found to have a below average cultural diversity, with 89.3% of its population born in Australia, 92.0% being citizens, and 94.7% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion in Churchill-Yamanto is Christianity, comprising 51.1% of the population, compared to 49.5% across Greater Brisbane. In terms of ancestry, the top three represented groups are Australian (31.1%), English (29.2%), and Scottish (7.8%).

Notably, German ethnicity is overrepresented at 7.4%, while Samoan is underrepresented at 0.5%. Additionally, Australian Aboriginal representation is slightly higher than regional averages at 4.5%.

Churchill - Yamanto's population is younger than the national pattern

Churchill-Yamanto's median age is 35 years, nearly matching Greater Brisbane's average of 36 but slightly younger than Australia's 38 years. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Churchill-Yamanto has a higher proportion of residents aged 65-74 (9.5%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (13.9%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 75 to 84 has grown from 3.6% to 5.2%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 5 to 14 has declined from 15.4% to 13.1%, and the 55 to 64 age group has dropped from 11.5% to 10.2%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Churchill-Yamanto. The 75 to 84 cohort is projected to grow by 39%, adding 145 residents to reach a total of 519. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 70% of the population growth, highlighting the trend towards an aging demographic. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 age cohorts.