Ashfield - Kepnock

Population growth drivers in Ashfield - Kepnock are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Ashfield - Kepnock's population is around 6,032 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 373 people (6.6%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,659 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 5,923 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 120 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 747 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Ashfield - Kepnock's 6.6% growth since the census positions it within 2.5 percentage points of the Rest of Qld (9.1%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, which contributed approximately 80.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data, are adopted. It should be noted that these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence where utilised, AreaSearch is applying proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) for each age cohort. As we examine future population trends, an above-median population growth of regional areas nationally is projected, with the area expected to expand by 812 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 11.7% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Ashfield - Kepnock recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Ashfield - Kepnock has experienced around 21 dwellings receiving development approval each year, totalling 105 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 28 approvals have been recorded. With an average of 3 new residents per year gained for each dwelling built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), reflecting robust demand that underpins property values, new homes are being built at an average value of $383,000. Additionally, $1.4 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, indicating minimal commercial development activity.

Relative to the Rest of Qld, Ashfield - Kepnock records about 57% of the building activity per person and ranks in the 49th percentile of areas assessed nationally, meaning more limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing homes. Meanwhile, new construction has consisted entirely of detached houses, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated count of 374 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low-activity development environment.

Population forecasts indicate Ashfield - Kepnock will gain 703 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Development is keeping a reasonable pace with projected growth, though buyers may face increasing competition as the population expands.

Ashfield - Kepnock has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 49thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 13 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Sienna Boulevard, New Bundaberg Hospital, The Gateway Marina - Burnett Heads, and Bundaberg East Levee, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis indicates Ashfield - Kepnock maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Ashfield - Kepnock possesses a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of 4.0%, and 8.8% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 2,996 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is in line with Regional Qld's rate of 4.0%, and workforce participation is on par with Regional Qld's 65.4%. Based on Census responses, a low 5.0% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. The area shows particularly strong specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical shows lower representation at 2.7% versus the regional average of 5.1%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 8.8% and labour force increased by 8.7%, leaving unemployment broadly flat. In contrast, Regional Qld experienced employment growth of 0.7% and labour force growth of 1.0%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Ashfield - Kepnock. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Ashfield - Kepnock's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.4% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Ashfield - Kepnock SA2's median income among taxpayers is $49,973, with an average of $62,616. This is below the national average, and compares to Regional Qld's median of $53,146 and average of $66,593. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $54,925 (median) and $68,821 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Ashfield - Kepnock all fall between the 18th and 20th percentiles nationally. Distribution data shows the predominant cohort spans 29.2% of locals (1,761 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, mirroring regional levels where 31.7% occupy this bracket. After housing, 85.0% of income remains, though this ranks at only the 20th percentile nationally.

Ashfield - Kepnock is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Ashfield - Kepnock, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 88.1% houses and 11.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional Qld's 76.4% houses and 23.6% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Ashfield - Kepnock was higher than that of Regional Qld, at 35.3%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (33.8%) or rented (30.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Regional Qld average at $1,300, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $290, compared to Regional Qld's $1,655 and $345. Nationally, Ashfield - Kepnock's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Ashfield - Kepnock has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households dominate at 70.3% of all households, comprising 26.1% couples with children, 29.0% couples without children, and 14.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 29.7%, with lone person households at 26.5% and group households comprising 3.3% of the total. The median household size of 2.5 people matches the Regional Qld average.

Educational outcomes in Ashfield - Kepnock fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (14.7%) substantially below the Australian average of 30.4%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 11.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 40.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (8.5%) and certificates (32.1%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.0% in primary education, 9.0% in secondary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 15 active transport stops operating within Ashfield - Kepnock, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 3 individual routes, collectively providing 61 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 324 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 95%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling. A relatively low 5.0% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 8 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 4 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Ashfield - Kepnock is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across Ashfield - Kepnock, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A range of health conditions have marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~3,040 people). This compares to 52.5% across Regional Qld. The national average is 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 10.8 and 9.4% of residents, respectively, while 61.6% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 67.6% across Regional Qld. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 21.0% of residents aged 65 and over (1,269 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Ashfield - Kepnock ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ashfield - Kepnock was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 88.1% of its population being citizens, 86.1% born in Australia, and 91.9% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Ashfield - Kepnock is Christianity, which makes up 54.1% of people in Ashfield - Kepnock, compared to 52.2% across Regional Qld.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Ashfield - Kepnock are English, comprising 30.5% of the population, Australian, comprising 29.4% of the population, and Scottish, comprising 7.0% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: German is notably overrepresented at 6.6% of Ashfield - Kepnock (vs 4.7% regionally), Korean at 0.7% (vs 0.2%) and Australian Aboriginal at 3.9% (vs 3.9%).

Ashfield - Kepnock's population is slightly older than the national pattern

With a median age of 40, Ashfield - Kepnock is close to the Regional Qld figure of 41 but modestly exceeds the national norm of 38. The 0 - 4 age group shows strong representation at 6.6% compared to Regional Qld, whereas the 55 - 64 cohort is less prevalent at 10.8%. Following the 2021 Census, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 11.6% to 13.1% of the population. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 13.7% to 12.4%. Demographic modeling suggests Ashfield - Kepnock's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. Leading the demographic shift, the 25 to 34 group will grow by 22% (171 people), reaching 950 from 778. Meanwhile, numbers in the 15 to 24 age range are expected to fall by 62.