Ashfield - Kepnock

Population growth drivers in Ashfield - Kepnock are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Ashfield-Kepnock's population is around 6,048 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 389 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,659. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 5,923 in June 2024 and an additional 119 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 749 persons per square kilometer. Ashfield-Kepnock's 6.9% growth since census positions it within 1.7 percentage points of the SA3 area (8.6%). Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 80.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, released in 2023 based on 2021 data. These state projections do not provide age category splits; hence proportional growth weightings in line with ABS Greater Capital Region projections are applied where utilised. Future population trends project an above median growth of regional areas nationally. The area is expected to expand by 812 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 11.4% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Ashfield - Kepnock recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Ashfield-Kepnock has received approximately 21 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 105 homes. As of FY-26, 23 approvals have been recorded. Each dwelling built has attracted an average of 3 new residents annually between FY-21 and FY-25. The average construction cost value for new homes is $383,000.

This year, $1.4 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating minimal commercial development activity. Compared to the rest of Queensland, Ashfield-Kepnock records about 57% of building activity per person and ranks among the 49th percentile nationally, suggesting limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing homes. All new construction has consisted of detached houses, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character and appealing to those seeking family homes with space.

The estimated population density is 374 people per dwelling approval, reflecting a quiet development environment. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Ashfield-Kepnock is projected to gain 687 residents by 2041. Development pace appears reasonable in relation to projected growth, but buyers may face increasing competition as the population expands.

Ashfield - Kepnock has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 13 projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include Sienna Boulevard, New Bundaberg Hospital, The Gateway Marina - Burnett Heads, and Bundaberg East Levee. Below is a list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis indicates Ashfield - Kepnock maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Ashfield-Kepnock has a balanced workforce with representation from both white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well-represented in the area.

As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 4.2%, with an estimated employment growth of 9.6% over the past year. There are 2,986 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%, slightly higher than Rest of Qld's rate of 4.1%. Workforce participation is lower at 54.3% compared to Rest of Qld's 59.1%. Leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training.

The area has a strong specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services have lower representation at 2.7% compared to the regional average of 5.1%. Analysis based on AreaSearch data shows that from September 2024 to September 2025, employment levels increased by 9.6%, and labour force increased by 9.8%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Qld experienced employment growth of 1.7% and labour force growth of 2.1%, with an increase in unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data from Queensland as of 25-Nov shows that employment contracted by 0.01% (losing 1,210 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.2%, closely aligned with the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 indicate a projected growth in national employment by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ashfield-Kepnock's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, though these are illustrative extrapolations and do not account for localized population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Ashfield - Kepnock SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $48,493 and an average of $59,921. This is below the national average. Rest of Qld had a median income of $50,780 and an average of $64,844. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 13.99% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $55,277 (median) and $68,304 (average). According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Ashfield - Kepnock fall between the 18th and 20th percentiles nationally. Income distribution data shows that 29.2% of locals (1,766 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999, similar to regional levels where 31.7% occupy this bracket. After housing costs, 85.0% of income remains, ranking at the 20th percentile nationally.

Ashfield - Kepnock is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Ashfield - Kepnock's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.1% houses and 11.9% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro Qld had 84.6% houses and 15.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ashfield - Kepnock was at 35.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.8% and rented ones at 30.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, aligning with Non-Metro Qld's average, while the median weekly rent was $290, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $285. Nationally, Ashfield - Kepnock's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,300 against Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially lower at $290 compared to the national figure of $375.

Ashfield - Kepnock has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 70.3% of all households, including 26.1% couples with children, 29.0% couples without children, and 14.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 29.7%, with lone person households at 26.5% and group households making up 3.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, larger than the Rest of Qld average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Ashfield - Kepnock fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 14.7%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 11.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 40.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas account for 8.5% and certificates for 32.1%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.0% in primary education, 9.0% in secondary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Ashfield-Kepnock shows that there are currently 15 operational transport stops. These stops cater to a mix of bus services, with three individual routes providing a total of 61 weekly passenger trips combined. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as good, with residents typically residing approximately 324 meters away from the nearest stop.

On average, there are eight trips per day across all routes, which translates to roughly four weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Ashfield - Kepnock is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Ashfield-Kepnock faces significant health challenges, as indicated by data showing high prevalence of common conditions across both younger and older age groups. Approximately half (50%) of the total population (~2,993 people) has private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 10.8% and 9.4% of residents respectively. A higher proportion, 61.6%, report being free from medical ailments compared to Rest of Qld (59.1%). The area has a lower percentage of seniors aged 65 and over at 21.4% (1,291 people), compared to Rest of Qld's 26.3%. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges similar to those seen in the general population.

Ashfield - Kepnock ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ashfield-Kepnock was found to have below average cultural diversity, with 88.1% of its population being citizens, 86.1% born in Australia, and 91.9% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion is Christianity, comprising 54.1% of people in Ashfield-Kepnock, compared to 54.0% across the Rest of Qld. The top three ancestry groups are English (30.5%), Australian (29.4%), and Scottish (7.0%).

Notably, German ethnicity is overrepresented at 6.6%, Korean at 0.7%, and Australian Aboriginal at 3.9%.

Ashfield - Kepnock's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Ashfield-Kepnock has a median age of 40, close to Rest of Qld's figure of 41 and slightly above Australia's national norm of 38. The 0-4 age group comprises 6.6%, higher than Rest of Qld's percentage. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort constitutes 10.6%. Post-2021 Census, the 35-44 age group increased from 11.6% to 13.0%, while the 5-14 cohort decreased from 13.7% to 12.6%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Ashfield-Kepnock's age profile. Notably, the 25-34 group is projected to grow by 24%, reaching 950 from 768. Conversely, the 15-24 age range is expected to decrease by 62 people.