Kogarah

Population

The area lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends. Total population for Kogarah was estimated by AreaSearch to be approximately 15,107 as at February 25 (~49.5% male and 50.5% female), which represented an exceptional 15.9% rise from the 13,034 recorded as at the 2021 Census period. This is based upon an estimated resident population of 14,995 from the ABS up to June 2024 and an additional 506 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 6,867 persons per square kilometer, placing it among the most highly concentrated locations in Australia and highlighting the need for further land supply to facilitate population growth.

Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 92% of overall population gains during recent periods. Over the census periods assessed Kogarah outperformed Greater Sydney, although results varied between periods with the location's growth profile showing moderate volatility between periods with an average growth level in each 5yr census period of 14.6%.

Looking at population projections moving forward, exceptional growth, placing in the top 10 percent of statistical areas across the nation, is predicted over the period with the area expected to expand by 6,723 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, with an increase of 46.7% in total over the 17 years.

GROWTH | HEATMAP | TABLE | FORECAST | GRAPHIC

Note: Population figures above are provided on both Census periods (c) and Estimated Resident Population (erp) basis. ERP figures are calculated annually by the ABS as at June 30 and have been adjusted for new Census boundaries with the 2021 Census. As figures differ slightly, growth rates over periods have been calculated using the same basis. For example 2016 to 2021 growth is based on available Census data, while 2001 to 2006 has used an ERP basis due to mesh block level Census data being unavailable.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041.

Employment

Total resident employment within Kogarah equated to 9,563 as at Dec-2024, while the unemployment rate was 1.8%, compared to 4.1% for Greater Sydney (please note local unemployment rates are calculated on a trend basis and lag more up-to-date state figures released by the ABS). Total employment increased 0.7% over the year to Dec-2024 in Kogarah, while labour force increased 1.1%, causing the unemployment rate to rise 0.4% over the same period. These figures can be compared to Greater Sydney's performance, where total employment increased 1.6%, the region's labour force increased 2.3% and its unemployment rate rose 0.6%. Also noteworthy is Kogarah's participation rate, which leads the Greater Sydney average at 62.2%.

The interest rate tightening cycle from the RBA is now having an effect on job advertisements growth, a positive for lowering inflation expectations, with a moderation seen over the past year as advertised roles in the Sydney employment region remained relatively stable. Looking relative to longer term trends however, the 346,698 job advertisements recorded as at 2025-Feb were below the longer term average of 450,654.

The key industries of employment are health care & social assistance, professional & technical and retail trade, which make up 20.8%, 11.8% and 10.0%, respectively.

Jobs and Skills Australia provides national projections of growth expected by industry over five and 10 year periods from May 2024, which can be overlaid onto Kogarah's employment composition to get a gauge as to potential future employment demand. Nationally employment levels are expected to grow by 6.6% over the coming five years and 13.7% over the ten year period, but vary substantially across industry segments. When industry expectations are applied to Kogarah as described above, the area should increase 7.4% over the five year period and 15% over the ten year period. Please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections.

EMPLOYMENT | UNEMPLOYMENT | TABLE | GRAPHIC

Note: ○ Employment estimates based on population weighted averaging of figures published for SA2 areas that intersect the catchment ~ DESE data released quarterly with 3 month time-lag ○ Additional AreaSearch population-weighted estimates and backdating applied to SA2 areas formulated as at 2021 Census

Development

Dwelling approval data is released monthly by the ABS, there was 75 residential approvals (6% Detached / 94% Attached) registered in Kogarah over the past two financial years, with FY-25 presently on track to deliver 85 on an annualised basis given the 50 recorded to date. Looking at development activity over the previous five financial years, Kogarah's approval levels are currently running below the yearly average of 230, with a clear downward tend in approvals apparent from historic rates.

Dwelling approval activity in Kogarah has been significantly lower than that seen across the broader region, with 0.26 approvals per 100 people, compared to 0.57 in Greater Sydney. This means one dwelling was approved for every 385 people in Kogarah, versus one for every 180 in Greater Sydney. With an anticipated population increase of 6,000 people by 2041, about 2,609 new dwellings will be necessary. The existing supply is considerably inadequate relative to these projections, indicating a growing risk of housing shortages. This situation could result in notable price appreciation and capital gains, particularly as demand is expected to outpace supply.

Another important driver of capital value is densification, as measured by AreaSearch. This involves comparing the ratio of house to attached and 'other' dwelling approvals in recent applications with the housing stock ratio recorded in the latest Census. According to this analysis, 6% of recent approvals in Kogarah were for houses, a figure 16.1% below the Census figure.

APPROVALS | TABLE | GRAPHIC

Note: ○ Dwelling approval estimates based on population weighted averaging of figures published for SA2 areas that intersect the catchment ~ ABS data released monthly with 3 month time-lag ○ Additional AreaSearch population-weighted backdating applied to SA2 areas formulated as at 2021 Census ○ DA to population relativities to help in assessment of supply and demand levels within an area ~ Approvals per 100 people is calculated over the the past 2 financial years, while population growth per approval is based on the past five years (to ABS ERP periods) to smooth volatility in population growth trends.

Age

The median ages within Kogarah and the Greater Sydney region sit at 35 and 37, respectively, with Kogarah's most over and under-represented age cohorts in comparison to the Greater Sydney average being the 25 - 34 (22.3% of the total population) and 5 - 14 (8.9% of the total population) age groups.

Looking at population forecasts by age brackets, the majority of the population increase is expected within the 45 to 54 age group, which is projected to expand by 1,032 people.

COHORTS | FORECAST | TABLE | GRAPHIC

Note: See population section for forecast methodology and references.

Income

The catchment's income level is higher than average nationally according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-22. The catchment's median income among taxpayers is $53,633 and the average income stands at $67,997, which compares to figures for Greater Sydney's of $56,994 and $80,856 respectively.

Looking at 2021 Census income data (that is provided on a median only basis and takes into account all residents) the median incomes within Kogarah stand at $1,959 for households, $2,219 for families and $905 for personal compared to Greater Sydney's results of $2,077, $2,374 and $881 for the same metrics. The income bracket containing the largest proportion (~44.9% / 6,776 persons) of Kogarah's population is the $1,500 - 2,999 grouping, similarly to Greater Sydney where 34% of the population fits into this bracket.

COHORTS | TABLE | GRAPHIC

Note: ○ ATO taxable income data is released at postcode level anually, this is then population weighted and income balanced by AreaSearch. ○ Census income estimates based on population weighted averaging of Census data released for SA2 areas that intersect the catchment ○ Post-housing cost income estimates based on based on median income to median monthly housing cost ratios calculated at Census.

Household Structure

There was an approximate total of 5,152 households within Kogarah recorded at the 2021 Census. Median household size stands at 2.5, a figure below the Greater Sydney average of 2.7. Of these households, 64% are families, 25.3% are lone persons, 5.6% are group households, while 5.3% are 'other' households. Based on our latest estimates (see the population section) the total number of households has likely grown to 5,971.

The household type standing out as most clearly under-represented is family households, with 64% of Kogarah's total households compared to 69.5% across Greater Sydney. Meanwhile, of Kogarah's families, 23.9% are couples with no children, 29.5% are couples with children and 8.4% are single parent families, compared to 23.3%, 34.4% and 10.5% for Greater Sydney. Of Kogarah's population, 36% have never been married while 48.3% are currently married, in contrast to Greater Sydney's results of 36.4% and 48.3% for the same metrics. Further, Kogarah trails the Greater Sydney average of 1.5 children per family, recording a figure of 1.1.

TABLE | GRAPHIC | FAMILIES GRAPHIC

Infrastructure & Major Projects

The below list represents a summary of major planning, infrastructure and project announcements likely to impact upon the subject area. This data is compiled by AreaSearch from numerous sources for the benefit of our users, however, naturally, we can not guarantee to cover every project of interest. If there is a specific project you believe we have missed that warrants inclusion, please feel free to Contact Us and we will endeavour to incorporate your suggestion.

M6 - Stage One

Category: Transport & Logistics | Type: Major Project
Stage: Under Delivery Source / Links: Link 1     Admin ID: 341

The M6 Extension Stage One connects the New M5 at Arncliffe with President Avenue, Kogarah. It features 4km twin tunnels, ramps, future expansion stubs, road upgrades, shared pathways, and essential motorway support infrastructure.

St George Hospital Redevelopment Stage Three

Category: Health | Type: Major Project
Stage: Under Delivery Source / Links: Link 1     Admin ID: 537

Stage Three of St George Hospital's redevelopment includes new outpatient, pathology, rehabilitation services, more beds, aged care, special units for brain injury, behavior management, palliative care, surgery, imaging, and a Clinical Skills Centre.

Sydney Metro

Category: Transport & Logistics | Type: Major Project
Stage: Announced Source / Links: Link 1     Admin ID: 198

Australia's largest public transport project, Sydney Metro, is an automated rail system boosting Sydney's capacity by 60% by 2024. It encompasses multiple stages, including the operational Northwest and upcoming City & Southwest and West lines.

Kyeemagh Public School project

Category: Education & Training | Type: Local Project
Stage: Complete Source / Links: Link 1     Admin ID: 3173

School Infrastructure NSW has upgraded Kyeemagh Public School to bring students new and improved facilities and support the growing student community.

WestConnex

Category: Transport & Logistics | Type: Major Project
Stage: Construction Source / Links: Link 1    Link 2   Admin ID: 3127

WestConnex will provide 33km of motorway to link western and south-western Sydney with the city, Kingsford Smith Airport and Port Botany precincts.

A3 And A6 Corridor Capacity

Category: Transport & Logistics | Type: Major Project
Source / Links: Admin ID: 826

The A3 and A6 corridors in Sydney face high traffic, causing slow trips and impacting freight productivity, with proposed upgrades to address capacity constraints and promote modal shift to reduce emissions.

Western Sydney Freight Line And Intermodal Terminal

Category: Transport & Logistics | Type: Major Project
Source / Links: Admin ID: 762

Proposal for a freight rail link and intermodal terminal in Western Sydney to address increased freight volume and reduce reliance on road transport, aimed at enhancing connectivity and reducing congestion.

Newcastle-Sydney And Wollongong-Sydney Rail Line Upgrades

Category: Transport & Logistics | Type: Major Project
Source / Links: Admin ID: 834

Upgrades to improve rail speed and reduce travel times between Newcastle, Wollongong, and Sydney, enhancing connectivity and productivity. Includes operational, infrastructure improvements, and new rail crossings.

Sydney Southern Ring

Category: Energy | Type: Major Project
Stage: Prospective Source / Links: Link 1     Admin ID: 284

Transgrid's Sydney Southern Ring, a 500kV line project from Bannaby to South Creek, aims to support Sydney, Newcastle, Wollongong's demand. It includes new substations and line works to integrate renewable energy sources.

Victoria & George

Category: Communities, Precincts & Urban Renewal | Type: Local Project
Stage: Under Construction Source / Links: Link 1    Link 2   Admin ID: 2088

12-storey Kogarah residential building and adaptive reuse project, including the retention and reuse of adjoining heritage listed terraces.

Rocky Point Rd, Kogarah

Category: Communities, Precincts & Urban Renewal | Type: Local Project
Stage: Proposed Source / Links: Link 1    Link 2   Admin ID: 2161

Two new storage facilities are being built in Sydney: a 10-storey development in Mascot by Chapter and Co with Wilson Storage, and a six-storey facility in Kogarah by Abacus Group and Storage King.

Railway St, Rockdale

Category: Communities, Precincts & Urban Renewal | Type: Local Project
Stage: Proposed Source / Links: Link 1    Link 2   Admin ID: 1944

Eloura Developments plans to renovate Kadwell Chambers, a 1920s building in Rockdale, into a nine-storey mixed-use development with 140 apartments, commercial units, rooftop space, and basement parking.

Bay St, Brighton-Le-Sands

Category: Communities, Precincts & Urban Renewal | Type: Local Project
Stage: Proposed Source / Links: Link 1    Link 2   Admin ID: 2458

A 13-storey mid-rise apartment block with 130 apartments, majority two-bedroom units with retail spaces, communal areas, connected to Brighton Shores, offering views of North Sydney CBD, Botany Bay, Blue Mountains.

Rockdale Residences

Category: Communities, Precincts & Urban Renewal | Type: Local Project
Stage: Proposed Source / Links: Link 1    Link 2   Admin ID: 1012

Eight-storey building with 130 co-living rooms, a lobby, communal space, and ground floor cafe. Includes 15 car and 130 bicycle spaces, with plans for 200 units worth $65 million.

Princes Hwy, Banksia

Category: Communities, Precincts & Urban Renewal | Type: Local Project
Stage: Proposed Source / Links: Link 1    Link 2   Admin ID: 1841

The project involves developing two, 10-storey buildings comprising 86 shop-top apartments. This development aims to provide in-fill affordable housing next to Banksia Station, replacing aging commercial buildings.

The Grand Parade Ramsgate Road, Ramsgate Beach

Category: Communities, Precincts & Urban Renewal | Type: Local Project
Stage: Proposed Source / Links: Link 1    Link 2   Admin ID: 1397

Bronxx plans to redevelop a Coles supermarket into a six-storey building with retail outlets, food and drink premises, and 44 apartments. The project includes 2926sq m of retail space and quality residential accommodation.

More Trains, More Services Program

Category: Transport & Logistics | Type: Major Project
Stage: Under Delivery Source / Links: Link 1     Admin ID: 257

A program with over $1.5 billion funding aimed at upgrading Sydney's rail network by enhancing digital systems, improving service frequency, and increasing the capacity of several lines.

Arncliffe Central

Category: Communities, Precincts & Urban Renewal | Type: Local Project
Stage: Under Construction Source / Links: Link 1    Link 2   Admin ID: 1600

Four-tower, 804-apartment mixed-tenure housing project with retail podium, public park, childcare center, community center, and library.

Eden Street Arncliffe

Category: Communities, Precincts & Urban Renewal | Type: Local Project
Stage: Approved Source / Links: Link 1    Link 2   Admin ID: 1253

A four-tower residential precinct redevelopment including 744 apartments, with 180 social housing apartments. Features 3100sq m of retail space, a 240sq m childcare centre, and 813 carparking spaces.

Westconnex Stage Two - New M5

Category: Transport & Logistics | Type: Major Project
Stage: Operational Source / Links: Link 1     Admin ID: 686

The project involves a $4.3 billion duplication of the M5 East, including twin tunnels from Kingsgrove to St Peters and a $131 million upgrade of the King Georges Road Interchange.

Amenity

AreaSearch's amenity score assesses locational convenience by measuring the distance to closest access point and average distance to the nearest three access points, for critical community services. Please note for certain sectors this covers only major operators assessed regularly by AreaSearch. Amenity for the Kogarah population centre midpoint was found to be exptionally high overallsupermarkets and government service locations lagged other categories in terms of convenience.

Aged Care & SDA

AGED CARE MAP | SDA FACILITIES | DATA TABLES

Retail Analysis

MAJOR BRANDS | SPENDING | INCOME | MACRO

Education

Kogarah showed top quartile performance for education according to AreaSearch's broad ranking of educational achievement and performance statistics. 46.5% of residents in Kogarah have completed bachelor or postgraduate qualifications which is significantly beyond the 38.0% recorded for Greater Sydney, while 16.4% of the resident population reported to be attending school between pre-school and secondary level, while 5.4% were attending a technical college and 8.2% attending university.

There were a total of 8 schools identified in Kogarah, with a total attendance of approximately 3,510 students. The average ICSEA score (which bases off a national average of 1000) equated to 1,060, which is marginally above the average seen across Greater Sydney of 1,050.

SCHOOLS | TABLE | GRAPHIC

Note: ○ School places and ICSEA performance based on latest ACARA data ○ Student and qualification splits based on population weighted averaging of Census data released for SA2 areas that intersect the catchment. * Estimated resident student population includes those attending tertiary education

Housing

Dwelling structure within Kogarah, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 22.1% houses and 77.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Greater Sydney's 55.3% houses and 44.7% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Kogarah was lagging that of Greater Sydney, at 22.8%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (29.4%) or rented (47.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Kogarah was below the Greater Sydney average at $2,251, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $464, compared to Greater Sydney's $2,427 and $470.

TABLE | GRAPHIC

Diversity

Kogarah scores highly on cultural diversity, with 59.8% of its population born overseas and 65.0% speaking a language other than English at home.

The main religion in Kogarah was found to be Christianity, which makes up 46.2% of people in Kogarah. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Hinduism, which comprises 16.0% of the population, substantially higher than the Greater Sydney average of 5.2%. In terms of country of origin, the top three represented groups in Kogarah area are Other, comprising 26.5% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 16.0%, Chinese, comprising 14.4% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 8.4%, and English, comprising 9.8% of the population, which is notably lower than the regional average of 18.9%. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other groups. Australian is notably lower than the regional average, comprising 8.9% of Kogarah population compared to 17.8% regionally. Greek is substantially higher than the regional average, comprising 6.9% of Kogarah population compared to 1.9% regionally..

TABLE | GRAPHIC

Health

Kogarah's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions and the rate of private health cover was found to be fairly high at approximately 53% of the total population (~8,068 people). The most common medical conditions in the area were found to be arthritis and asthma, impacting 5.5 and 5.2% of residents, respectively, while 80.1% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Overall 4.7% of the total population registered as requiring assistance with day to day activities, which is below average .

For a far more detailed assessment of health metrics and drivers, including detailed hospital supply, admission and procedure data, Medicare expenditure across cohorts, practitioner locations, relativities and expenditure forecasts please see the medical section or enquire about access.

TABLE | GRAPHIC

Land Use

There are a total of seven different land-use categories across Kogarah's 222 hectare land-mass, the most prominent being residential, parkland and education, which make up approximately 137.2 (61.8%), 34.7 (15.6%) and 20.2 (9.1%), hectares of land, respectively. Please note; totals and percentages based on sum of categorised mesh blocks that fall within Kogarah as opposed to total Kogarah land area - minor differences may exist between land-use category totals and total land area, as mesh blocks at the edges of Kogarah are unlikely to intersect perfectly along Kogarah boundary.

CHART | MAP

Surrounds

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The surrounds feature enables AreaSearch clients to quickly assess the catchment for nearby places of interest via our integration with the Google Places API.

Up to 60 results per search category can be attained. Please input, or select, a term to search. Please note 5 account credits are used per 100 results returned from this search, which accumulates on your account due to 3rd party data costs.

Public Transport & Access

STOPS MAP | GRAPHIC

light   dark   satellite   streets  

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Catchment  /  Greater Sydney Avg

Type	Name	Distance	Routes	Trips / Wk

Child Care Analysis

Key Metrics

Catchment  / Greater Sydney

LDC Providers

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Total Population

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Population Aged 0-4

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Total School Attendance

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Average LDC Fee($/day)

Other Places (PSK / OOSH)

Medical Analysis

MAP DATA | SUPPLY RELATIVITIES | MBS DEMAND DATA | SUMMARY TEXT