Gulf

An assessment of population growth drivers in Gulf reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Gulf's population is around 4,866 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 677 people (16.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,189 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 4,862 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 1 validated new address since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 0.10 persons per square kilometer, providing ample space per person. Gulf's 16.2% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (9.9%) and the state average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth, which contributed approximately 47.6% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including overseas migration and interstate migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and to estimate growth across all areas in the years post-2032, AreaSearch is applying growth rates by age cohort to each area, as provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Moving forward with demographic trends, an above-median population growth for national non-metropolitan areas is projected, with the area expected to grow by 661 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, recording a gain of 13.5% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Gulf, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Gulf has experienced around 7 dwellings receiving development approval per year, with 38 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 18 so far in FY-26. At an average of 3.3 new residents per year for every home built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), demand significantly exceeds new supply, which usually results in price growth and increased buyer competition, while new homes are being built at an average value of $450,000—moderately above regional levels—indicating an emphasis on quality construction. Additionally, $14.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development.

When measured against the Rest of NT, Gulf has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and places among the 10th percentile of areas assessed nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing properties. This level is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and pointing to possible planning constraints. New development consists of 80.0% detached dwellings and 20.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated count of 1821 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

Looking ahead, Gulf is expected to grow by 657 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Development is keeping a reasonable pace with projected growth, though buyers may face increasing competition as the population expands.

Gulf has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 9thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 4 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Enabling Infrastructure For Developing The Beetaloo Sub-Basin, Australia-Asia PowerLink, Australia-Asia PowerLink (AAPowerLink), and Northern Territory Freight Rail And Logistics Capacity Improvements, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Gulf face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Gulf features a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of 17.2%, and 1.2% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 1,321 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 11.1% above Regional NT's rate of 6.1%, showing room for improvement, and workforce participation lags significantly (40.5% compared to Regional NT's 71.4%). Based on Census responses, a low 4.6% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are education & training, public administration & safety, and health care & social assistance. The area has a particular employment specialization in education & training, with an employment share of 2.0 times the regional level. On the other hand, health care & social assistance is under-represented, with only 10.6% of Gulf's workforce compared to 18.8% in Regional NT. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 1.2% while the labour force increased by 1.1%, leaving unemployment broadly flat. By comparison, Regional NT recorded employment growth of 0.7%, labour force growth of 1.1%, with unemployment rising 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Gulf. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Gulf's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.4% over five years and 11.9% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for FY-23 reveals that income in the Gulf SA2 is lower than average on a national basis, with the median assessed at $39,559 while the average income stands at $49,860. This contrasts with Regional NT's figures of a median income of $53,572 and an average income of $63,776. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.44% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $42,898 (median) and $54,068 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household income ranks at the 19th percentile ($1,281 weekly), while personal income sits at the 0th percentile. The data shows the largest segment comprises 32.3% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (1,571 residents), reflecting patterns seen at regional levels where 33.6% similarly occupy this range. Housing costs are manageable with 94.8% retained, though disposable income sits below average at the 32nd percentile.

Gulf displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Gulf, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 69.7% houses and 30.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional NT's 75.6% houses and 24.5% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Gulf lagged that of Regional NT, at 12.9%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (0.5%) or rented (86.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Regional NT average at $1,117, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $75, compared to Regional NT's $1,733 and $150. Nationally, Gulf's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Gulf features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 82.2% of all households, comprising 37.4% couples with children, 19.6% couples without children, and 21.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 17.8%, with lone person households at 15.7% and group households comprising 1.8% of the total. The median household size of 4.3 people is larger than the Regional NT average of 3.1.

Gulf faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (9.3%) substantially below the Australian average of 30.4%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 6.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 30.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (3.5%) and certificates (27.4%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 34.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 18.0% in primary education, 10.5% in secondary education, and 1.4% pursuing tertiary education.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Gulf's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Gulf's health metrics sit close to national benchmarks, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. There is a standard level of common health conditions across both young and old age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (~2,238 people). This compares to 51.6% across Regional NT. The national average is 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are diabetes and heart disease, impacting 5.9% and 5.9% of residents, respectively, while 80.6% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 78.4% across Regional NT. The area has 8.2% of residents aged 65 and over (397 people). Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Gulf records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Gulf was found to be above average in terms of cultural diversity, with 3.2% of its population born overseas and 71.3% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Gulf is Christianity, which makes up 54.7% of people in Gulf. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Other, which comprises 9.5% of the population, compared to 5.2% across Regional NT.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Gulf are Australian Aboriginal, comprising 80.6% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 43.6%, Australian, comprising 5.6% of the population, which is notably lower than the regional average of 14.9%, and English, comprising 4.4% of the population, which is notably lower than the regional average of 14.3%. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Maori is notably overrepresented at 0.4% of Gulf (vs 0.7% regionally).

Gulf hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

At 28 years, Gulf's median age is marginally below the Regional NT average of 31 and substantially under Australia's 38 years. Relative to Regional NT, Gulf has a higher concentration of 15 - 24 residents (17.2%) but fewer 0 - 4 year-olds (5.5%). Since the 2021 Census, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 17.0% to 19.8% of the population, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 13.6% to 15.6%. Conversely, the 15 to 24 cohort has declined from 20.8% to 17.2% and the 5 to 14 group dropped from 16.2% to 13.5%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Gulf's age structure. Leading the demographic shift, the 45 to 54 group will grow by 33% (188 people), reaching 753 from 564. On the other hand, population declines are projected for the 5 to 14 and 15 to 24 cohorts.