Gulf
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Gulf reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Gulf's population was approximately 4,862 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 673 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,189 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 4,862 from the ABS as of June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 0.10 persons per square kilometer. Gulf's growth rate of 16.1% since the 2021 census exceeded both the national average (8.9%) and the state average, positioning it as a regional growth leader. Natural growth contributed approximately 47.6% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas migration and interstate migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, growth rates by age cohort are applied post-2032, based on ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 and using 2022 data. Population projections indicate an above median growth for Australia's non-metropolitan areas, with the area expected to expand by 661 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 13.6% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Gulf according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Gulf has experienced approximately 7 dwelling approvals per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 38 homes have been approved, with none yet in FY26. On average, each home built over these years accommodates about 3.3 new residents annually.

This demand significantly exceeds new supply, leading to price growth and increased buyer competition. The average construction value of new homes is $450,000, indicating a focus on quality construction. In FY26, around $14.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to the Rest of NT, Gulf has about three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 10th percentile nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing properties.

This level is below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and suggesting possible planning constraints. New development consists predominantly of detached dwellings (80.0%) with townhouses or apartments making up the remainder (20.0%), maintaining Gulf's traditional low-density character focused on family homes. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 1821 people, indicating a quiet, low-activity development environment. Looking ahead, Gulf is projected to grow by approximately 661 residents by 2041. Development is keeping pace with this projected growth, though increasing competition among buyers may arise as the population expands.

Gulf has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 0thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified three projects likely impacting the area: Enabling Infrastructure For Developing The Beetaloo Sub-Basin, Australia-Asia PowerLink, Northern Territory Freight Rail And Logistics Capacity Improvements, and Territory Energy Link.

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Employment conditions in Gulf face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Gulf's workforce spans white and blue collar jobs, with key sectors including education & training, public administration & safety, and health care & social assistance. As of June 2025, the unemployment rate is 17.1%.

This is 11.2% higher than Rest of NT's rate of 5.9%. Workforce participation stands at 27.8%, significantly lower than Rest of NT's 50.7%. Employment in education & training is high, at 2.0 times the regional level. However, health care & social assistance employment is low, at 10.6% compared to Rest of NT's 18.8%.

Local employment opportunities appear limited based on Census data. Over the year to June 2025, employment remained stable while labour force decreased by 1.8%, reducing unemployment by 1.5 percentage points. National employment forecasts suggest growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Gulf's employment mix indicates potential local growth of approximately 5.4% over five years and 11.9% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation and does not account for local population changes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2022 shows that Gulf had a median income of $38,405 and an average income of $49,143. This is lower than the national averages. In contrast, Rest of NT had a median income of $51,655 and an average income of $61,577. Using Wage Price Index growth of 12.01% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $43,017 (median) and $55,045 (average). Census 2021 income data shows that household income ranks at the 19th percentile ($1,281 weekly), with personal income at the 0th percentile. The largest segment of incomes is 32.3% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (1,570 residents). Housing costs are manageable with 94.8% retained, but disposable income sits below average at the 32nd percentile.

Gulf displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Gulf, as per the latest Census data, 69.7% of dwellings were houses while 30.3% consisted of other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This contrasts with Non-Metro NT's dwelling structure which was 77.7% houses and 22.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Gulf stood at 12.9%, with mortgaged properties at 0.5% and rented dwellings at 86.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Gulf was $1,117, significantly lower than Non-Metro NT's average of $1,615. The median weekly rent figure for Gulf was recorded at $75, substantially below the national average of $375. Nationally, Gulf's mortgage repayments were considerably lower than the Australian average of $1,863.

Gulf features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 82.2% of all households, including 37.4% couples with children, 19.6% couples without children, and 21.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 17.8%, with lone person households at 15.7% and group households comprising 1.8%. The median household size is 4.3 people, which is larger than the Rest of NT average of 3.2.

Gulf faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 9.3%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. This discrepancy presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 6.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 30.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (3.5%) and certificates (27.4%).

Educational participation is high, at 34.8%, including primary education (18.0%), secondary education (10.5%), and tertiary education (1.4%). Seven schools operate within Gulf, educating approximately 683 students. All seven offer integrated K-12 education for academic continuity. Note: for schools with 'n/a' in enrolments, refer to the parent campus.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Gulf's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows excellent results across Gulf regions, with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. The rate of private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (~2,231 people), compared to 49.8% across the rest of Northern Territory (NT). Nationally, the average is 55.3%.

Diabetes and heart disease are the most common medical conditions in the area, impacting 5.9 and 5.9% of residents respectively. 80.6% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 78.3% across the rest of NT. As of 2016 (the latest available data), 7.9% of residents are aged 65 and over (381 people). Health outcomes among seniors in Gulf regions are particularly strong, broadly aligning with the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Gulf was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Gulf's cultural diversity was found to be above average, with 3.2% of its population born overseas and 71.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the main religion in Gulf, comprising 54.7% of people. The category 'Other' comprised 9.5%, substantially higher than the Rest of NT average of 3.6%.

In terms of ancestry, Australian Aboriginal was the most represented group, comprising 80.6% of Gulf's population, significantly higher than the regional average of 43.9%. Australian and English groups were notably underrepresented at 5.6% and 4.4%, respectively, compared to regional averages of 17.5% and 14.4%. Maori was notably overrepresented in Gulf at 0.4%, matching the regional average.

Gulf hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Gulf's median age is 28 years, which is marginally below the Rest of NT average of 31 years and substantially under Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to the Rest of NT, Gulf has a higher concentration of residents aged 15-24 (17.9%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (8.3%). This 15-24 concentration is well above the national average of 12.5%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 17.0% to 19.7%, while the 65 to 74 cohort increased from 4.6% to 6.0%. Conversely, the 15 to 24 cohort has declined from 20.8% to 17.9%, and the 5 to 14 group dropped from 16.2% to 14.3%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Gulf's age structure. The 45 to 54 group is projected to grow by 33%, reaching 753 people from the current 567. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 5 to 14 and 15 to 24 cohorts.