Gulf

An assessment of population growth drivers in Gulf reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Gulf's population is around 4,915 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 726 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,189. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 4,915 from the ABS as of June 2025 and an additional 1 validated new address since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 0.10 persons per square kilometer. Gulf's 17.3% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (9.3%). Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth, contributing approximately 68.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data and to estimate growth post-2032, AreaSearch applies growth rates by age cohort provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). An above median population growth is projected for non-metropolitan areas, with Gulf expected to grow by 628 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 12.8% over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Gulf, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Gulf has experienced approximately seven dwelling approvals per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, 38 homes were approved. In FY26, up until now, 14 dwellings have been approved.

On average, for every home built over these five years, there are about 3.3 new residents each year, indicating a significant demand exceeding supply, which typically leads to price growth and increased buyer competition. The average construction cost of new homes is $450,000, moderately higher than regional levels, suggesting an emphasis on quality construction. This financial year has seen $14.6 million in commercial approvals registered, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to the Rest of NT, Gulf has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 10th percentile nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing properties.

This level is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and potential planning constraints. New development consists of 80% detached dwellings and 20% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 1821 people, reflecting its quiet, low-activity development environment. Looking ahead, Gulf is expected to grow by 628 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Development is keeping pace with projected growth, though buyers may face increasing competition as the population expands.

Gulf has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 9thth percentile nationally

Four projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area: Enabling Infrastructure For Developing The Beetaloo Sub-Basin, Australia-Asia PowerLink, Australia-Asia PowerLink (AAPowerLink), and Northern Territory Freight Rail And Logistics Capacity Improvements. These are considered key projects likely to be most relevant.

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Employment conditions in Gulf face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Gulf has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, prominent essential services sectors, an unemployment rate of 17.2%, and estimated employment growth of 1.2% in the past year as of December 2025. There are 1,321 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 11.1%, which is higher than Regional NT's rate of 6.1%. Workforce participation in Gulf lags at 40.0%, compared to Regional NT's 69.3%.

According to Census responses, only 4.6% of residents work from home. Key industries for employment are education & training, public administration & safety, and health care & social assistance. Gulf specializes in education & training with an employment share double the regional level. However, health care & social assistance is under-represented at 10.6%, compared to Regional NT's 18.8%.

Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census data. Over the year to December 2025, employment increased by 1.2% while labour force grew by 1.1%, keeping unemployment stable. In comparison, Regional NT had employment growth of 0.7% and a slight rise in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia suggest total national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Gulf's industry mix indicates local employment could increase by 5.4% over five years and 11.9% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 indicates that income in Gulf SA2 is lower than average nationally. The median income is $39,559 and the average income stands at $49,860. This contrasts with Regional NT where the median income is $53,572 and the average income is $63,776. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.41% since June 2023, current estimates for Gulf SA2 would be approximately $43,282 (median) and $54,552 (average) as of March 2026. According to Census data from August 2021, household income ranks at the 19th percentile ($1,281 weekly), while personal income sits at the 0th percentile. The majority, 32.3%, earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly (1,587 residents). Housing costs are manageable with 94.8% retained, but disposable income is below average at the 32nd percentile.

Gulf displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Gulf's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 69.7% houses and 30.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Regional NT's 75.6% houses and 24.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Gulf was at 12.9%, with the rest being mortgaged (0.5%) or rented (86.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,117, below Regional NT's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent was $75, compared to Regional NT's $150. Nationally, Gulf's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,863 and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Gulf features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 82.2% of all households, including 37.4% couples with children, 19.6% couples without children, and 21.0% single parent families. Non-family households comprise 17.8%, consisting of 15.7% lone person households and 1.8% group households. The median household size is 4.3 people, which is larger than the Regional NT average of 3.1.

Gulf faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 9.3%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. This disparity presents both challenges and opportunities for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 6.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 30.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (3.5%) and certificates (27.4%).

Educational participation is high at 34.8%, comprising primary education (18.0%), secondary education (10.5%), and tertiary education (1.4%).

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Gulf's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Gulf's health metrics closely align with national benchmarks based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The level of common health conditions is fairly standard across both young and old age cohorts. Private health cover stands at approximately 46% of the total population, around 2,260 people, compared to Regional NT's 51.6% and the national average of 55.7%.

Diabetes and heart disease are the most common medical conditions, affecting 5.9% and 5.9% of residents respectively. About 80.6% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Regional NT's 78.4%. The area has 8.1%, or around 397 people, aged 65 and over. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Gulf records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Gulf's cultural diversity is above average, with 3.2% of its population born overseas and 71.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Gulf, comprising 54.7% of the population. The most notable overrepresentation is in the 'Other' category, which accounts for 9.5% of Gulf's population compared to 5.2% across Regional NT.

In terms of ancestry, Australian Aboriginal is the top group at 80.6%, significantly higher than the regional average of 43.6%. Australian and English groups are underrepresented in Gulf, comprising 5.6% and 4.4% respectively, compared to regional averages of 14.9% and 14.3%. Maori is notably overrepresented in Gulf at 0.4%, compared to the regional average of 0.7%.

Gulf hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Gulf's median age is 28 years, which is slightly below the Regional NT average of 31 years and significantly lower than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Regional NT, Gulf has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (17.5%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (8.7%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 25-34 has grown from 17.0% to 20.1%, while the 35-44 age group increased from 13.6% to 15.3%. Conversely, the 15-24 age group has decreased from 20.8% to 17.5%, and the 5-14 age group has dropped from 16.2% to 13.5%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Gulf's age structure. The 45-54 age group is projected to grow by 32% (180 people), reaching 738 from 557. However, population declines are projected for the 5-14 and 15-24 age cohorts.