Gulf

An assessment of population growth drivers in Gulf reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Gulf's population was around 4,866 as of February 2026, according to AreaSearch's analysis. This figure reflects an increase of 677 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,189. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 4,862 in June 2024 and one validated new address since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 0.10 persons per square kilometer. Gulf's growth rate of 16.2% since the 2021 census exceeded both national (9.9%) and state averages, marking it as a regional growth leader. Natural growth contributed approximately 47.6% to overall population gains recently, with all drivers including overseas migration and interstate migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, growth rates by age cohort from the ABS's latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) are applied to estimate post-2032 growth. Based on demographic trends and the latest annual ERP population numbers, the area is projected to grow by 661 persons to 2041, reflecting a total gain of 13.5% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Gulf, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Gulf has experienced around 7 dwelling approvals per year. Between FY21 and FY25, 38 homes were approved, with a further 18 approved so far in FY26. This results in an average of 3.3 new residents per year for every home built over the past five financial years.

Demand significantly exceeds supply, leading to price growth and increased buyer competition. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $450,000, which is moderately above regional levels, indicating a focus on quality construction. In FY26, $14.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to the Rest of NT, Gulf has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and places among the 10th percentile nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing properties.

This level is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New development consists of 80% detached dwellings and 20% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated count of 1821 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. Looking ahead, Gulf is expected to grow by 657 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Development is keeping reasonable pace with projected growth, though buyers may face increasing competition as the population expands.

Gulf has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 9thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects expected to affect the region: Enabling Infrastructure For Developing The Beetaloo Sub-Basin, Australia-Asia PowerLink, Australia-Asia PowerLink (AAPowerLink), and Northern Territory Freight Rail And Logistics Capacity Improvements.

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Employment conditions in Gulf face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Gulf's workforce comprises white and blue-collar employees, with prominent essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 16.9% as of September 2025. Over the past year, employment has remained relatively stable in the area.

A total of 1,306 residents were employed by September 2025, with an unemployment rate of 11.0%, significantly higher than Rest of NT's rate of 5.9%. Workforce participation was low at 39.9% compared to Rest of NT's 70.4%. According to Census responses, only 4.6% of residents worked from home. Key industries for employment among residents were education & training, public administration & safety, and health care & social assistance.

Gulf had a particular specialization in education & training, with an employment share twice the regional level. However, health care & social assistance was under-represented, with only 10.6% of Gulf's workforce compared to 18.8% in Rest of NT. The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data. Over the year to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 1.2%, accompanied by a 0.2% decrease in employment, leading to a fall in unemployment by 0.8 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of NT experienced an employment decline of 1.3% and a labour force decline of 1.2%, with unemployment rising marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 indicated that national employment was projected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates varied significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Gulf's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 5.4% over five years and 11.9% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Gulf SA2 is lower than average nationally. The median income is $39,559 and the average is $49,860. This contrasts with Rest of NT where the median income is $53,572 and the average is $63,776. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.44% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Gulf SA2 would be approximately $42,898 (median) and $54,068 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household income ranks at the 19th percentile with weekly earnings of $1,281, while personal income is at the 0th percentile. The largest segment comprises 32.3% earning between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly (1,571 residents). Housing costs are manageable with 94.8% retained, but disposable income sits below average at the 32nd percentile.

Gulf displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Gulf, as per the latest Census evaluation, 69.7% of dwellings were houses while 30.3% consisted of other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro NT had a higher percentage of houses at 75.6%, with the remaining 24.5% being other dwellings. Home ownership in Gulf was lower at 12.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 0.5% and rented ones at 86.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Gulf was $1,117, significantly below the Non-Metro NT average of $1,733. Weekly rent figures were lower as well, with a median of $75 compared to Non-Metro NT's $150. Nationally, Gulf's mortgage repayments averaged $1,863 and rents were $375.

Gulf features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 82.2% of all households, consisting of 37.4% couples with children, 19.6% couples without children, and 21.0% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 17.8%, with lone person households at 15.7% and group households making up 1.8% of the total. The median household size is 4.3 people, which is larger than the Rest of NT average of 3.1.

Gulf faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 9.3%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 6.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 30.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (3.5%) and certificates (27.4%). Educational participation is high at 34.8%, comprising primary education (18.0%), secondary education (10.5%), and tertiary education (1.4%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 34.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 18.0% in primary education, 10.5% in secondary education, and 1.4% pursuing tertiary education.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Gulf's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Gulf's health metrics closely align with national benchmarks, as assessed by AreaSearch using mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The area shows a typical level of common health conditions across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is found to be extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (~2,238 people), compared to 51.6% in the rest of NT and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are diabetes and heart disease, affecting 5.9% and 5.9% of residents respectively. 80.6% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 78.4% in the rest of NT. The area has 8.2% of residents aged 65 and over (397 people). Health outcomes among seniors are notably strong, ranking even higher than those of the general population nationally.

In terms of cultural diversity, Gulf records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Gulf's cultural diversity is above average, with 3.2% of its population born overseas and 71.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Gulf, comprising 54.7% of people there. Notably, the 'Other' category makes up 9.5% of Gulf's population, higher than the regional average of 5.2%.

In terms of ancestry, Australian Aboriginal is the most represented group in Gulf at 80.6%, significantly higher than the regional average of 43.6%. Australian and English groups are underrepresented in Gulf compared to regional averages: Australian comprises 5.6% (regional average: 14.9%) and English comprises 4.4% (regional average: 14.3%). Maori group is notably overrepresented in Gulf at 0.4%, compared to the regional average of 0.7%.

Gulf hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Gulf's median age is 28 years, marginally below the Rest of NT average of 31 years and substantially under Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to the Rest of NT, Gulf has a higher concentration of residents aged 15-24 (17.2%) but fewer residents aged 0-4 (5.5%). Between the 2021 Census and the present day, the population aged 25-34 has grown from 17.0% to 19.8%, while the 35-44 age group increased from 13.6% to 15.6%. Conversely, the 15-24 age cohort declined from 20.8% to 17.2%, and the 5-14 age group dropped from 16.2% to 13.5%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Gulf's age structure. Notably, the 45-54 age group is projected to grow by 33%, reaching 753 people from a current total of 564. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 5-14 and 15-24 age cohorts.